Indicators Hiding in Plain Sight

Published on
May 24th, 2019
Duration
63 minutes

Indicators Hiding in Plain Sight

The Interview ·
Featuring Peter Atwater

Published on: May 24th, 2019 • Duration: 63 minutes

Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts LLC, sees the state of the modern world reflected in the rhetoric and actions that surround us. Whether it is China recalling loaned pandas from the San Diego Zoo, the troubled IPOs of Uber and Lyft, or the willingness of people all around the globe to elect previously unthinkable leaders, there are several recent signs that the ground is shifting beneath our feet. In this interview with Grant Williams, Atwater cuts through the noise to focus on the sentiment indicators that are informing his current world view. Filmed on May 22, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JS
    Jerad S.
    31 May 2019 @ 07:27
    Classic real vision gold. Love how they read headlines part.
  • CF
    Cause F.
    30 May 2019 @ 07:36
    Fantastic interview
  • WM
    Will M.
    28 May 2019 @ 18:47
    Tesla will go bankrupt...... its certain, just not punctual. Grant is right to point out the ridiculousness going on with the company. Michael Lewitt (The Credit Strategist) has been shouting for years about this company. Its a fake folks, just a question of when.
  • WK
    William K.
    28 May 2019 @ 02:01
    Trade war is a consequence. Yes, protectionism is a consequence as are Brexit, Xi, Trump, nationalism and populism.
  • AB
    Andrew B.
    27 May 2019 @ 07:11
    Fantastic stuff, some classic analogies! I make notes rather than just the transcript - five pages of them from this.
    • PD
      Paul D.
      27 May 2019 @ 21:59
      Thanks for referring me on Twitter. Pemc p
  • WG
    Wade G.
    26 May 2019 @ 19:42
    What a treat to run across Peter Atwater. I remember his appearance and indispensable role on Minyanville back before the GFC, writing first under a pseudonym, and concentrating largely on banking and retail credit strains and games played leading into the storm. He wrote a forensic-style analysis of some public information from Target stores that blew me away, and actually changed my life. He single handedly convinced me the end was nigh and it was. I was disappointed when to me it seemed he moved away from such an obvious strength, a profoundly deep understanding of banking, to this softer, fuzzier approach he has to moods and markets, but after watching this, I wonder if I foolishly sold him short. I'm gonna have to track down his work and see what I've been missing since I lost track of him. Thanks to Grant and realvision for bringing Peter back into focus for me. Good interview.
  • JS
    John S.
    26 May 2019 @ 18:13
    This interview demonstrates again why RealVision has become for me a top 5 source of high value content.
  • CH
    Colin H.
    26 May 2019 @ 14:56
    I didn't get the point of the bit about the front page being about taxi medallions and the uber IPO
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    26 May 2019 @ 01:41
    There is no doubt that Peter is a Democrat that is looking for a candidate to up end Biden. Mayor Pete might be his guy. During this whole video all I could think of is this guy is Mohamed El-Erian without the accent..... someone that always has a definitive answer for every question. Not!
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    26 May 2019 @ 00:46
    "To me Tesla is the ten headed lady" Hot damn I loved that. But the problem is actually much bigger than Tesla. Everything the Silicon Valley startup machine is pumping out into the public markets up here at the top of the cycle is pure sewage. Its Uber, Lyft, Snap, Pinterest, WeWork, etc, etc, etc. All money incinerators with no path to profitability, all of them malinvestment possible only thanks to cheap central bank money.
  • JV
    Javier V.
    25 May 2019 @ 20:14
    One of the best interviews on Real Vision
  • GO
    Glenn O.
    25 May 2019 @ 16:31
    An interview that I must Re listen to because there was so much insightful thought provoking concepts over various topics. Great interview. I wonder out loud what the people who gave this interview a thumbs down were looking at and what about this interview they did not or would not like. Thanks Glenn
  • AF
    Aidan F.
    25 May 2019 @ 14:23
    To add, I find his exploration of market dynamics from sentiment perspective quite fascinating
  • AF
    Aidan F.
    25 May 2019 @ 11:57
    Interesting but it seems like hes trying to oversimplifiy things back to view point of earnings. Not sure if the concept of traditional value means anything in a crisis environment. Hence buy bitcoin
  • ii
    ida i.
    25 May 2019 @ 11:49
    are we sure that the pandas are tied to the trade war? from: https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Giant-Panda-San-Diego-Zoo-Bai-Yun-China-507626611.html DATED MARCH 25TH: " The news, while shocking to many who love to visit and follow the lives of the giant pandas, was not unexpected as a long-term conservation agreement was ending, according to the San Diego Zoo officials. "
  • LC
    Lloyd C.
    25 May 2019 @ 11:09
    The thing about very smart people is that they can rationalise anything ex post facto and make it sound very smart but no one can actually predict future market trends nor even who will the election. Polls repeatedly demonstrate the fallibility of science. Happened in the US, UK and Australia. No one can tell the mood of a country nor how it develops. Therefore, whilst I found the conversation entertaining, that's all it was, entertainment.
  • M
    Mark .
    25 May 2019 @ 08:56
    I listen to right-wing talk radio all of the time. I just don't think they are realistic about the inequalities and lack of decent opportunity. I suppose it's because it's too esoteric mostly. The Fed in the financial system. When the GDP is so much higher and the unemployment rate is good, it's just too hard to get into the weeds. It makes me uncomfortable. The cost-of-living is just too high in some critical areas, but everyone focuses on simple numbers.
  • DH
    Daniel H.
    25 May 2019 @ 02:47
    Peter Atwater is both smart and interesting. I could listen to him and Grant all day.
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    25 May 2019 @ 02:10
    Panda parlance: Tit-tit for Tat-tat.. 😂
  • DW
    David W.
    25 May 2019 @ 00:39
    Great interview. The colour grading also seems to be improved vs older videos.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 May 2019 @ 21:44
    To win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must move to the left. To win the general election the Democratic candidate must move toward the middle. (Democrats agree on most issues; it is just a matter of degree.) Trump is strong because no other Republican can forge any voting bloc. Trump could win if all his base votes. It is possible that a third candidate outside either party could pull enough votes that no one will have a majority of the electoral college. In that case it is the House of Representatives that will select the president. Time will tell. DLS
  • RF
    Robert F.
    24 May 2019 @ 21:27
    Excellent Interview, very insightful.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 May 2019 @ 20:47
    Much of the energy behind corporate buybacks is simply escalating executive compensation with corporate funds. Stockholders like the higher stock price also, until they see how over-compensated the executive are. DLS
    • WM
      Will M.
      28 May 2019 @ 18:27
      Totally agree...... Add to that the record breaking difference between the executives at the top of big companies and the lowest paid grunt working for the company (in many cases a contractor anyway). I am all for capitalism but the differences arising between the haves and have nots is getting huge and very dangerous.
  • SA
    Stephen A.
    24 May 2019 @ 19:49
    Fantastic interview. I agree with pretty much everything Atwater says. Big respect, very smart guy. Very impressed.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    24 May 2019 @ 17:23
    Maybe we see an 11 headed lady. Nigel Tufnel would be proud.
  • ac
    adel c.
    24 May 2019 @ 16:37
    all real vision is dooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom been wrong on all trades change yoyr name to doom vision
    • SA
      Stephen A.
      24 May 2019 @ 19:48
      I suggest Fox Business for you.
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      25 May 2019 @ 02:50
      This is very unfair to Peter and Grant. There is a reason that globalism is now in retreat, wealth inequality is an issue, and they cover what kind of mood the country is in -- and it is not all a good mood. Too many in the lower middle class have been left behind, and the millenials expect, for example, bankers to take advantage of them every time they can.
    • WM
      Will M.
      28 May 2019 @ 18:16
      Best to stop watching then and go back to MSNBC for your tips.....
  • AP
    A P.
    24 May 2019 @ 14:02
    Behavioral masterclass.
  • HH
    HODL H.
    24 May 2019 @ 12:53
    SoftBank and Masa are just trying to be TBTF and likely already are. Masa is a sociopath and I think understands he could convince the Saudi’s of his grandiose vision and promises of vast wealth and technological advancement and thus entrench himself politically to the largest oil exporter to Japan. It is worrying and hopefully we can maintain decent relations with both allies If he impairs KSA, the Crown Prince has already shown his symbolism and action with those he feels wronged him financially or politically, on both the local and global stage (cash/ asset grab at 4 Seasons, Istanbul/WaPo affair, 37 member Shia/terrorist mass execution) From memory, the public reporting of the Vision Fund’s preferred piece I think was ~$40-50bn of the fund with 7% coupon. There are two portfolio investments I know to be cash flow (or were) free-cashflow positive, ARM and NVidia. I doubt the Vision Fund has a cash coupon component to the preferred (probably allows for PIK) because every single other investment is likely FCF negative or burning cash and requires an exit to make investors coupon whole. So if you want to make a grandiose visionary and his investors whole, but their next IPO. SoftBank pushing Uber into the market and selling off other investments I think is a sign of desperation, they know they need to hit ~$3bn+ of PIK interest annually ($40-50bn*7%) to just hope of getting back to even and hope to achieve upside from their.
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      25 May 2019 @ 02:54
      All you say is a metaphor for other excesses. Pensions must get 7.5% return so they buy corporate bonds that are floated to do buybacks, but since more than half are BBB rated, debt to EBITDA is exploding.
  • JB
    Jon B.
    24 May 2019 @ 12:08
    More fool the person who buys the personality hype around musk. More foolish still the person who ignores the technology disruption that tesla and spacex has catalysed Credit to the engineers at these organisations. That's where the value is.
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      25 May 2019 @ 02:57
      Surely you can't be serious about Tesla. It is a joke in terms of needed demand for his cars, manufacturing capability (too much rework), and financial health.
  • JA
    James A.
    24 May 2019 @ 08:44
    Grant. Love your stuff but sometimes I want to slit my wrists (again) after watching your largely bearish world economy interviews :)
    • ns
      niall s.
      24 May 2019 @ 12:12
      There have been times I would agree but now that the trade Cold War has been officially declared and the dip buying goes on into the teeth of it , it would be foolish to be anything other than bearish , that said the expressed unwillingness to press the TSLA short detracted from the guests credibility imo.
    • DI
      Dabangg I.
      25 May 2019 @ 01:05
      Grant and Raoul have both been bearish for the last 3 years. Here Grant makes great points, and eventually he will be right. But boy he was early, way too early missing 30% rally, but I guess fear sells better than greed in this world. More power to them, and hoping for more balanced view. Maybe reflect back on why your perceptions and predictions from 2017 were so wrong.
    • RM
      Ryan M.
      26 May 2019 @ 01:53
      Completely agree. Not realistic if you're being paid to manage proper money.
    • WM
      Will M.
      28 May 2019 @ 18:35
      Clearly I live on a different planet....... Anybody who doesn't have a bearish overall view on the world economy, and the Western nations in particular, is clearly not reading the smoke signals let alone the news. Doesn't mean there aren't a few bright spots but the challenges multiplying by each year, and what sometimes feels like by the quarter, are legion. The debt dynamic is unescapable. Yet I absolutely do believe the market could go higher. The problems will just get worse. Please tell me someone where there is optimism anywhere.....
  • JE
    J E.
    24 May 2019 @ 06:27
    Andrew Yang 2020 , he is the man
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      25 May 2019 @ 01:35
      The man to initiate, big gov, incentive & innovation destroying UBI, and a massive transfer of wealth from the private to the public sector over time? All in the guise of millennial friendly hashtag-ism... he da man.
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      25 May 2019 @ 02:58
      His UBI numbers won't work.
    • M
      Mark .
      25 May 2019 @ 08:51
      The one time I saw Yang interviewed, I was really surprised at how normal he seemed. It seems like he thought a great deal about what he needs to say. Even Mayor Pete sounds like an incoherent pie-in-the-sky socialist right now.