Interview with Bernd Ondruch

Featuring Bernd Ondruch

On the day of the UK referendum, Bernd Ondruch, founding partner & CIO at Astellon Capital Partners, gives his viewpoint on why a Brexit will not happen. Bernd also offers viewers a high-level discussion on the effects of a possible Chinese unwind on the German economy, the implications of bailing out a bank such as Deutsche Bank, and delivers actionable views on German real estate, M&A and CoCo bonds.

Published on
22 June, 2016
Topic
Monetary policy, Europe, Politics
Duration
42 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Real Estate
Rating
17

Comments

  • EK

    Emil K.

    25 10 2016 20:35

    0       0

    Speaking of 5% of savings going into gold (William M.) the latest Gold Investor (Oct. '16) from the World Gold Council has an interview with M. El-Erian where he states that gold makes sense and that a "5% strategic allocation is appropriate." A well-respected, establishment economic advisor suggesting gold? What!?

  • js

    jacob s.

    19 7 2016 04:00

    2       0

    so glad I finally bought a subscription.

  • WM

    William M.

    3 7 2016 14:35

    1       0

    On the subject of QE, loved the discussion on helicopter money vs infrastructure money. My feeling is that there seems to be so much risk around QE to Bonds that spending on needed infrastructure appears to be the next route CBs will take. The talk of gold benefitting from all of this just makes so much sense. If only 5% on savings in Europe was placed into gold....look out $5000 gold!!

  • WM

    William M.

    3 7 2016 14:30

    0       0

    Great Interview! "...my money is on the bookies.......(Brexit) won't happen" ..... "if it were to happen.....it will take Europe apart". Yes..........yes....mmmm. My weren't the experts (and the bookies) caught out!
    Now regarding Bail ins, good discussion on Deutsche bank, if a little truncated in terms of a bail in. But haven't the ECB just given Italy $160 Billion to assist with its banking crises? Someone correct me if I am wrong, but aren't the ECB now stepping back from bail ins because they know it won't work for the major EU countries?

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    30 6 2016 20:51

    1       0

    Great interview would love to see him sometime again in the future

  • JC

    Jason C.

    30 6 2016 04:40

    4       0

    The discussion around QE, helicopter money, the rise of populism and labour vs capital is so insightful and fills the void that is missing in nearly every other conversation you see in the media or on social media. Nice work.

  • TT

    Tick T.

    28 6 2016 21:54

    0       0

    P.S. What's the odds / probability Brexit result overturned?

  • TT

    Tick T.

    28 6 2016 20:20

    0       0

    Great interview and content but Bernd not putting boots / campers on the ground outside of M25 (metropolitan London) was surprising given that the EU project desperately needs UK in to survive. Bookies over ministry of truth polls - assuming they aren't drinking from the same poisoned 'data' well. Lies damn lies and statistics - it's so easy to skew the data analytics / modelling. Post analysis says UK evenly split but I suspect any analysis for England (sans Scotland, Ireland etc) would reveal a much higher pro Brexit result. Chattering class / champagne socialists - I can empathise the shock given that Joe S declared it's only those that 'count' the vote that matter (not verbatim) ........ Hope Bernd follows up / comes back soon.

  • GC

    Grant C.

    28 6 2016 12:36

    2       0

    Excellent, particularly the QE section, my head was spinning taking this in at 1.25x!. With the benefit of hindsight, Brexit did happen. I think a lot of people underestimate the anti-establishment trend. I expect this will materialise in a large vote for independents in the upcoming Australian federal election. This could result in further dysfunction trying to get bills through the senate.

  • FR

    Fields R.

    28 6 2016 00:46

    0       0

    Great. However, I agree with Oscar Wilde on his deathbed, "Either this wallpaper goes, or I do."

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    27 6 2016 22:58

    1       0

    excellent, open, free ranging, truthful analysis. great

  • rc

    random c.

    27 6 2016 07:36

    3       0

    outstanding. A interesting survey on helicopter money. One point that is missing in all helicopter money discussions is: once started, how do they stop? (even if "advertised" as a single drop).

  • DO

    Daryl O.

    27 6 2016 04:35

    2       0

    Awesome exploratory interview. I cannot think of another source, anywhere, that gives me the insight that Real Vision does.

  • MP

    Mark P.

    26 6 2016 20:56

    1       0

    "A bit more conviction and hopefully we are less wrong."

    I like this guy!

  • TM

    Todd M.

    26 6 2016 19:46

    3       0

    Beautiful, brainy conversation. Ideal interview style and flow.

  • AA

    Ali A.

    26 6 2016 10:57

    0       0

    How does the German RESI thesis stand up longer term if a secular unwind develops

  • SS

    Sebastien S.

    26 6 2016 07:20

    1       0

    Sharp & shrewd. Thank you.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    26 6 2016 05:38

    6       0

    They missed on Brexit but a great interview, nonetheless! RVTV keeps paying for itself over and over.

  • RG

    ROBERT G.

    26 6 2016 02:07

    6       0

    Would interesting to hear his analysis now Brexit vote is to leave

  • SP

    Stefano P.

    25 6 2016 15:09

    0       0

    Quite nice interview. I'm a little bit puzzled on the story of 50% Italian Banks CoCos sold to retail though. It doesn't match my evidence.

  • SP

    Stefano P.

    25 6 2016 15:09

    0       0

    Quite nice interview. I'm a little bit puzzled on the story of 50% Italian Banks CoCos sold to retail though. It doesn't match my evidence.

  • NS

    Nico S.

    25 6 2016 13:30

    6       0

    Missed on Brexit, but great interview nonetheless. On mark with QE - 90% of public has no idea what it is and this only drives govt suspicion and populist activities. Why don't governments just boost spending with 10yr at 1.5% and drive infrastructure? This would reverse populist and put 'actual' money in pockets and not just boost executive stk options. Sounds simple, but no one listening...

  • NA

    Nickle A.

    24 6 2016 18:38

    3       0

    "The mother of all bifurcations" - AKA a "MotherFurcer"?

  • fc

    frank c.

    24 6 2016 18:21

    5       0

    "we are betting on remain" oooops!

  • RM

    Richard M.

    24 6 2016 14:23

    6       0

    I second Liliana's comment - excellent discussion and truly insightful Q&A by Raoul and Mr. Ondruch. A little dated (and missed the mark on Brexit but still fantastic)! Again, request the "info" button show the date as to when the interview was actually conducted as that gives us a better perspective on why a given answer may seem so terrible.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    24 6 2016 07:30

    5       0

    Absolutely succulent discussion! Raoul is a brilliant interviewerror and Bernd is extremely articulate and smart. So many actionable ideas. Thank you!

  • mj

    maria j.

    24 6 2016 00:44

    0       0

    excellent

  • RA

    Robert A.

    23 6 2016 23:39

    7       0

    Top Notch presentation. Love the boots on the ground to get to a good trade early and sense when a trade is indeed becoming too crowded. Bet he has a dynamite risk management program in place as well. There are levels and then there are levels. Fun to get a peek inside the tent. Thanks very much AGAIN Grant and Raoul.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    23 6 2016 21:38

    6       0

    Thank you, loved the conversation and learned a lot. Like member comments too!

  • jn

    john n.

    23 6 2016 20:28

    2       0

    First time there was a comment that central banks realize QE does not work and the next method of stimulus will be more fiscal deficits with "helicopter money" as a delivery system. Inflation to follow so hard assets including gold are place to invest. But we'll need more indications that QE is to be junked.

  • BJ

    Brent J.

    23 6 2016 18:24

    4       0

    So happy to see Bernd on here. Met him several years ago and always love hearing his thoughts as he always seems curious to understand the side of the argument he doesn't himself agree with. Great interview

  • jw

    jackson w.

    23 6 2016 18:06

    8       0

    "the key argument agains gold has been removed"

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    23 6 2016 15:05

    3       0

    Short Cocos Long Cocoa!

  • MM

    Milly M.

    23 6 2016 14:46

    16       0

    This was truly exceptional. The surveys idea is brilliant, very interesting views on Germany, Switzerland & QE.

  • MS

    Mark S.

    23 6 2016 03:47

    26       0

    Simply brilliant interview. The final 15:00 was some of the best macro discussion I have heard. Thanks Raoul!