Interview with Dan Tapiero

Featuring Dan Tapiero

Dan Tapiero, Co-Founder of Gold Bullion International and well-known global macro investor, joins Real Vision for an extraordinary overview of the macro forces at work in the global economy. In this extraordinary discussion, Dan explains the pressures that will lead China to devalue further and his expectations of the knock-on effects, the roadmap leading to negative rates in the U.S., his probability distribution of the global economy in the next decade, and much more – this interview is not to be missed.

Published on
4 March, 2016
Topic
Macro, Global Outlook, Monetary policy
Duration
61 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Equities
Rating
34

Comments

  • mx

    markettaker x.

    17 8 2018 03:17

    0       0

    Lol. Dude is clueless on China.

  • CT

    Carl T.

    12 10 2016 06:35

    1       0

    If anyone is interested in the Thomas Kaplan report I believe that it's the same one that you can find on page 4 of the 2015 Nova Gold annual report here: http://www.novagold.com/investors/financials/

  • NH

    Neil H.

    8 9 2016 18:02

    2       0

    neil h.

    very informative video. bring him back for a rewind

  • mm

    mary m.

    5 7 2016 02:05

    1       1

    Infrastructure bonds? Really? Did he graduate from Keynes U?

  • BL

    Brian L.

    11 4 2016 18:56

    1       1

    If Dan is right on China, gold will skyrocket. If the Chinese real estate market implodes, demand will be off for gold and gold will drop.

  • CJ

    C J.

    10 4 2016 17:44

    1       2

    A lot of fluff in this interview...

  • CJ

    C J.

    10 4 2016 17:43

    0       0

    k

  • EB

    E B.

    16 3 2016 11:28

    2       2

    My contrarian view: the discussion was bleh. He believes central banks omnipotence yet is bearish. His views are neither in-depth nor niche nor specific. He said 'all' macro guys lost in 07: untrue!

  • WM

    Will M.

    13 3 2016 15:01

    3       0

    Great free flowing discussion. Good to hear slightly different perspectives on China. You simply cannot get this sort of discussion elsewhere for a few hundred bucks a year. Thanks Raoul!!

  • ca

    cyavash a.

    12 3 2016 13:29

    2       2

    Best part: One sec .. One sec ... One sec ...

  • RD

    Richard D.

    10 3 2016 06:38

    3       10

    Great. Dan is a smart guy, but dear Raoul keeps interrupting him (common theme with Raoul's interviews). Best just to let the interviewee run with it so we can learn from them. Thanks!

  • RD

    Richard D.

    10 3 2016 06:35

    1       9

    Great. Dan is a smart guy - would be good to have heard more from him, but dear Raoul keeps interrupting him (potentially a common theme with Raoul's interviews??) - might be best just to let it run..

  • WK

    William K.

    10 3 2016 01:31

    0       0

    We're not just pontificating - this is the framework for investing and managing risks. Similarities between China and Japan are real - Raoul rightly focused on the gap; Dan not investing :(

  • rs

    robert s.

    9 3 2016 21:21

    1       0

    Truly shows us that we need to see much more of non-consensus thinking regarding China and other group think areas. Broadening the Debate and scope of probable events is why this forum is crucial.

  • MC

    M C.

    9 3 2016 20:59

    2       0

    Same theme, different view than Raoul/mark Hart on China. Good to see differing opinions

  • RD

    Ryan D.

    9 3 2016 19:54

    2       0

    Great to hear a counter argument to the Hart thesis. Just wish he had a little more weight to them instead of 'China is different.' History may not repeat but it sure does rhyme sometimes.

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    9 3 2016 17:19

    1       5

    Liked him up to the moment when he said "Regulation is crushing the banks". Wondering what might have caused that regulation... erm... maybe because they almost brought down world financial system???

  • EB

    ELIZABETH B.

    9 3 2016 11:12

    1       0

    China will save us from deflation? Having lived there, they do move people & anything else around once they decide.
    Macro bet on gold, hence his gold bullion international. Peg is the problem.

  • RM

    Robert M.

    8 3 2016 17:50

    0       0

    I thought there was a spending bill that got passed for a Trillion dollars?

  • NS

    Niek S.

    8 3 2016 13:34

    8       0

    Really enjoy listening to guys like Dan Tapiero, would be awesome to have Stan Druckenmiller on the show once!

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    8 3 2016 02:18

    1       2

    Felt too long and Raul was not as comfortable as can be. There were some nuggets for sure but only towards the end. Did you guys have an agenda with time objectives?

  • EK

    Emil K.

    7 3 2016 22:31

    2       0

    China's national debt/GDP is 20% but lets assume provincial, SOE and corporate/shadow debt is national too. That puts us at 275-350% of 'GDP'. Adjust 'GDP' to GDP and we're at 400-500% GDP. No thanks.

  • DM

    Dean M.

    7 3 2016 19:39

    3       0

    Awesome! thanks Dan. Anyway you can share a link to the gold article you mentioned (Thomas Kaplan / Faber)?
    Thanks

  • KD

    Kevin D.

    7 3 2016 16:05

    6       0

    His China argument is "things are different there. They are not subject to finance/econ laws that apply elsewhere." That is what was said about Japan until 1989

  • AF

    Augustine F.

    7 3 2016 13:00

    1       1

    Interesting point of view but don't quite agree on the comment on bond market inflows. RQFII is at a super low usage rate for a reason and onshore bond yields are too low for big funds to invest

  • AG

    Adam G.

    7 3 2016 06:08

    3       10

    Embarrassing !! Did any one else find his comments on China insane ? Its as if he is paid off by the PBOC...

  • JF

    Jonathan F.

    7 3 2016 05:20

    3       1

    When you talk about making loads of money on the treasuries trade, is that possible because it is leveraged? How does one make large percentage returns on treasuries?

  • NS

    Nico S.

    7 3 2016 00:28

    2       1

    Dan is always insighful with simple, yet granular, arguments about what is 'likely' going to happen. Most influential segment related to view on gold and GS. Very the and why I never trade with banks.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    6 3 2016 18:56

    2       0

    I really appreciated his alternative views and observations on China. The question in my mind is whether the government can make positive changes without major civil unrest and what if not?

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    6 3 2016 18:53

    4       0

    I think Dan is saying that he wouldn't bet against China because govt has will and ability to make + changes quickly. His approach is wait And see. He's bearish next 9 Mos and probably short equities

  • JN

    Jake N.

    6 3 2016 18:44

    9       0

    Really liked this one. This kind of discussion is why I signed up. Thank you.

  • AS

    Alex S.

    6 3 2016 17:03

    2       0

    Such a good conversation, a lot of passion and lots of very fundamental idea analysis.

  • IF

    Ian F.

    6 3 2016 16:40

    3       0

    Pretty spot on re: China. Next I'd love to hear from a lifelong China analyst like Stephen Roach. His "Unbalanced" book argues against the consensus view of China's debt crisis. Worth a read.

  • SL

    Sandy L.

    6 3 2016 14:53

    2       3

    Disappointing......why did he get crushed as he said he did, if he was watching he macro picture. Did he ignore his own own blind spot? What good is all that intelligence?

  • ZC

    Zachary C.

    6 3 2016 14:02

    4       0

    Can anyone provide a link to the Kaplan / Faber Jan 2016 gold paper Dan mentions at the end of the interview?

  • SS

    Savneet S.

    6 3 2016 13:31

    1       0

    Well done. Thoughtful and informed discussion. I would have liked to hear the US election overview. DT rocks.

    W

  • LW

    Lukasz W.

    6 3 2016 11:33

    1       1

    I will do my best to understand one day everything he said.

  • EA

    Eldon A.

    6 3 2016 06:28

    1       3

    Interesting interview but where's his money? Other than talking his gold book at the end (which always excites RV subscribers) he didn't provide any specific ideas. Sorry, he did mention 10yr USTs.

  • EL

    Edward L.

    6 3 2016 00:01

    4       0

    Remarkable conversation. The value of RealVision TV is that investors like myself are not erudite in the field of investing and normally are not exposed to these expert and valuable resources. Kudos

  • DD

    Derek D.

    5 3 2016 23:02

    1       0

    WWII didn't end the GP darn it!

    That said: fascinating. Has me turned almost entirely back around on China. Again the Schiff thesis: peg is subsidy to US, lifting would unleash Chinese consumers.

  • DD

    Derek D.

    5 3 2016 23:00

    2       0

    No will? Can't agree? They all love print&spend. Infra sucks bc $ went to govt salaries/huge pensions. Pls don't encourage the maniacs to spend more. We're drowning in debt/inf. 70's redux but worse.

  • NG

    Nitin G.

    5 3 2016 21:10

    6       1

    Nothing short of incredible, and now viewers can assess both sides Dan/Mark/Ron vs Steve R . Dollar strength vs dollar weakness. Any body here fears long dollar becoming a consensus trade

  • TL

    T L.

    5 3 2016 19:53

    4       0

    Honest and rational in his assesment which adds credibility to his view (only gold seller I am aware of that is positive on China). His assesment is very much appreciated! Please bring him back

  • BD

    Bruce D.

    5 3 2016 18:01

    6       0

    To properly analyze and interpret the global macro view, you MUST remove the US centric blinders from your thinking, as it clouds the mind. Once removed, the light bulbs go off!

  • EW

    Eliot W.

    5 3 2016 16:50

    2       0

    I feel like a solvent abuser my eyes have been opened that much by this interview.

  • db

    don b.

    5 3 2016 15:25

    10       1

    Most powerful segment of the interview is when he talks about Au and the fact that banks don't believe in or promote Au. "If gold goes up a lot this will destroy their (Banks) equity & bond business"

  • BM

    Barry M.

    5 3 2016 14:24

    6       0

    Shout out to the editor, great job when Raoul was trying to interrupt Dan, had me laughing out loud !

  • ZY

    ZHENG Y.

    5 3 2016 12:55

    2       0

    i think the idea of mainstream finance do not care about gold is a good point. i was thinking how will this trend turn to the other way: mainstream finance bullish on gold in future.

  • JD

    John D.

    5 3 2016 10:24

    9       0

    Great Discussion... Two Brilliant Guys...Lots of Valuable Insights...Well Done...

  • DF

    Dominic F.

    5 3 2016 08:19

    4       0

    Great discussion and sharing of views. Would love to hear about SDR when talking about future money. I guess Jim Rickards is your man there.

  • TH

    Timo H.

    5 3 2016 08:03

    4       0

    Pure macro = pure gold. Exploding demand in the west in the last month is THE big thing happening right now.

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    5 3 2016 07:00

    3       0

    Brilliant.

  • AK

    Anthony K.

    5 3 2016 04:34

    2       0

    Excellent Piece!

  • JO

    James O.

    5 3 2016 04:00

    13       0

    There are 52 metropolitan areas in the
    USA above 1MM people

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    5 3 2016 03:47

    1       0

    Lots of currency discussion here as well as with Mark Hart and others. Would really love to hear discussion regarding fundamentals of currencies. Dan mentioned dollar/Korea. Why does he like it?

  • PL

    Peter L.

    5 3 2016 03:09

    4       0

    One of the best pieces thus far...had many "light bulb" moments and now am better able to connect previously disparate dots of all the macroeconomic forces at play in the world. thanks a bunch!

  • MA

    Melanie A.

    5 3 2016 01:57

    7       0

    Ditto would love to see Dan and Mark Hart discuss China. Agree China is not going to resolve with a Western approach and are nimble, less regulated and risk taking to be creative...

  • GG

    Guillermo G.

    4 3 2016 23:40

    4       0

    When in doubt (and boy you cannot go worse than this) embrace gold. The only one bet that will not sink you regardless of all your economic uncertainties.

  • dm

    dan m.

    4 3 2016 23:02

    0       2

    China has a pig shit problem.

  • dm

    dan m.

    4 3 2016 22:49

    1       8

    WRONG WRONG WRONG

  • JM

    Jon M.

    4 3 2016 22:22

    3       0

    Thank you Raul!!!

  • GJ

    Gareth J.

    4 3 2016 20:03

    9       1

    Blown-A-Way. Worth the annual subscription with a zero added.

  • RG

    Richard G.

    4 3 2016 18:07

    28       0

    Would LOVE to see Dan and Mark Hart in a room together to talk China. My brain would definitely explode with information, but I'd die happy.

  • sa

    stephen a.

    4 3 2016 17:54

    5       0

    Brilliant - RV is truly the best source to stimulate your thoughts!

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    4 3 2016 17:50

    11       0

    "thats a nine month gap, what the hell happens in the middle there when we have no liquidity" - best line

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    4 3 2016 17:12

    5       1

    Anyone else having problems with the video stuttering or is it just me?

  • FS

    Fred S.

    4 3 2016 16:50

    13       0

    I'd love to see Dan on RV again in a year or so. (Then every year after.) Same with all macro guys. Love to find out what's really going on in the world.

  • VP

    Vasileios P.

    4 3 2016 16:34

    6       0

    Just BRILLIANT!!!

  • AA

    Ali A.

    4 3 2016 16:11

    58       0

    These pure macro discussions are incredible. Would love to see more traditional global macro chatter from any camp... consensus or non. In this environment you must not miss the forest for the trees

  • WE

    William E.

    4 3 2016 15:56

    3       0

    W-out thinking good or bad, a better metaphor might be US as distance runner pulling globe ahead for 100 yrs & needs to hand off baton to China/India for all to move forward; US retools for new order.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    4 3 2016 15:11

    3       0

    We are moving from a framework where folks search for government bonds that, risk adjusted, pay the most to those which take the least. Implications? Gold. But what locale is safe from sovereigns?

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    4 3 2016 15:08

    7       0

    Another priceless and invaluable discussion on all the key asset classes. Brilliant and thought provoking.

  • RM

    Rowland M.

    4 3 2016 14:36

    13       1

    So in essence, as the USA slows down as a mature arthritic cripple, China is toddling, albeit as an awkward gangling teenager, into adulthood.