Interview with David Hay

Featuring David Hay

David Hay, CIO of Evergreen Gavekal brings his wisdom and experience back to Real Vision to discuss investing in the U.S. stock market in a time of uncertain returns, the two coin-faces of a recession, the strategic advantage of holding cash, and much, much more.

Published on
9 June, 2016
Liquidity, Credit Market, Monetary policy
49 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Cash, Bonds/Rates/Credit


  • DP

    Damon P.

    28 6 2016 23:15

    0       0

    Excellent, candid and honest views. Thanks very much.

  • SS

    Stewart S.

    26 6 2016 16:35

    0       0

    one word. EXCELLENT

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    22 6 2016 11:44

    1       2

    Agree with most, except for complaints about socialism in the face of 50m+ people on food stamps, 1% of pop owning 50%+ of wealth and zero real income gains for median household since 1990's. Plenty of examples outside of US that you can have a prospering economy AND affordable (or even free) healthcare. Venezuela is not socialism; it's a cleptocracy.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    22 6 2016 09:18

    1       0

    This interview was too damned short!! Please have Mr. Hay back soon as I'm quite sure that we haven't heard half of what Mr. Hay has to say...

  • DO

    Daryl O.

    20 6 2016 05:51

    2       0

    A first class interview.

  • WM

    Will M.

    19 6 2016 18:22

    3       0

    Great interview. David comes across superbly, a consummate professional with balanced and well thought out reasoning to support his positions. What a mess this all is and that it could go on for even another year or two is just frightening. Great job Grant and RVT.

  • jm

    john m.

    16 6 2016 02:34

    1       0

    Question: Are the ETF custodians exposed to risk in a liquidity crisis? I understand that it will be difficult for them to rebalance but are they exposed to losses if they can't sell and rebalance? Or is it all a pass through to ETF investors?

  • MT

    Mike T.

    14 6 2016 19:26

    0       1
  • M

    Mark .

    13 6 2016 20:47

    1       1

    We need way more citizens that have an honest knowledge of history and economics. Critical Theory and the Frankfurt school have killed us.

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    13 6 2016 14:14

    2       0

    Think he was referring to Mervyn King when he said "the only thing the FED cares is S&P"

  • NS

    Niek S.

    13 6 2016 08:15

    1       0

    The liquidity part was really top notch! Thanks guys, awesome interview!

  • ww

    will w.

    13 6 2016 06:54

    1       0

    Being the thorough gentleman that he is, David is at least somewhat soft-spoken; this may be main factor in the perceived low(er) volume level. Suggestion to RV: if your recording rig is same each time, you can check each segment's level before going 'live' & adjust gain for a reference level that you know results in excellent audio levels for viewers. Must also be careful that participants maintain a steady distance between mouth & mic throughout each session (not a factor this time, but has been a bit of one a few times).

  • je

    james e.

    13 6 2016 02:29

    9       0

    Grant, your interviewing skills are outstanding and matched only by the quality of your interviewees' knowledge. David is not just a great investment advisor and investor, but his interest in understanding the "why" behind markets shines through. As much as I love David's knowledge and experience, his humility is more endearing. A great guy and real thought leader. Excellent interview.

  • DS

    David S.

    13 6 2016 00:33

    2       0

    I wonder if we have reached the point in human complexity that no government can be effective in promoting the long-term welfare of its citizens.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    12 6 2016 23:21

    2       0

    Great questions indeed, Grant! Of course it may help that you know you are going to get a well reasoned pithy and concise answer. Really nice interview.

  • JC

    Justin C.

    12 6 2016 23:09

    3       0

    Another of the really great RVTV interviews. The point about retired boomers being cash-strapped has to be so hugely relevant to the inflation/deflation outlook. In a negative real interest rate world, the price of just about everything matters to retirees unless they have a generous RPI-linked defined-benefit pension. Even those lucky enough to have one must worry as to whether their scheme will be able to continue paying out with so little yield available. Is the writing on the wall at Tata Steel?

  • rm

    richard m.

    12 6 2016 20:56

    1       0

    This is all getting a bit scary.. Btw,the volume is an issue. Tried to listen my car on a trip yesterday ,but couldn't hear even with head phones

  • JC

    Joe C.

    12 6 2016 12:53

    0       0

    Great interview!

  • S

    Simon .

    12 6 2016 07:33

    3       0

    Can't understand the down votes for this. What is not to like?

  • GA

    Greg A.

    12 6 2016 05:58

    2       0

    Bravo Grant!! I thoroughly enjoyed this interview. The ending about why politics have gotten so weird was spot on I believe. The people just feel it in their stomach that something isn't quite right. RealVisionTV FTW!!

  • CB

    CHRIS B.

    12 6 2016 03:25

    1       0

    or maybe improve the miocrophone on the interviewee

  • CB

    CHRIS B.

    12 6 2016 03:21

    2       0

    can you turn up the volume

  • ls

    lawrence s.

    11 6 2016 19:04

    0       0

    Great piece just wish there were more answers but it is all in the clouds just when??????????

  • ls

    lawrence s.

    11 6 2016 19:04

    0       0

    Great piece just wish there were more answers but it is all in the clouds just when??????????

  • KH

    Katrina H.

    11 6 2016 18:58

    6       0

    This interview is definitely a re-watch. A treasure trove of information. Thanks RV!

  • MM

    MZ M.

    11 6 2016 17:44

    2       0

    Excellent conversation Grant and David with many excellent points made and take-aways to think more about. Thank you!

  • mj

    maria j.

    11 6 2016 14:09

    0       0


  • BF

    Bruce F.

    11 6 2016 09:49

    3       0

    in general, so right it is truly scary

  • AP

    A P.

    11 6 2016 04:22

    11       0

    Many thanks for this excellent talk. The ETF / underlying instruments' liquidity issue is hugely disconcerting; further discussion on this would be hugely appreciated! Again, thanks.

  • db

    don b.

    11 6 2016 00:08

    0       0

    Great job guys!!

  • DL

    Derek L.

    10 6 2016 22:59

    7       0

    The Japanese government owns 52% of their ETF market? Wow! We are through the looking glass indeed...Great stuff.

  • ET

    Ed T.

    10 6 2016 20:57

    3       2

    Great interview! Agree with the comments about socialism at then end. At the same time, Sanders is the only guy who spoke about serious campaign finance reform. Until we see that, I think it will be difficult to change much that plagues both the economy and financial markets.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    10 6 2016 19:44

    2       0

    Thought provoking interview! The ECB & Feds are trying to force everyone into the stock mkt. Due to waning confidence in central banks, they will be the primary buyer of the stock mtkt. I believe that the Feds will soon follow the ECB's lead with CSPP (buying corporate debt). Non-US demand for the dollar must remain high, or the dollar will fall. Money is being printed with nothing to back it so that it can be used to buy US government debt. I can see why smart money is leaving the stock mkt. & into gold & other safe havens.

  • DS

    David S.

    10 6 2016 19:35

    2       3

    100% socialism the country is broke. 100% capitalism the country is in revolution. "A Question of Balance." Responsible social programs are paid for by long-term wealth generated by capitalism. Finland's credit rating was reduced as tax revenues declined - paper, exports and Nokia. The balance is every changing.

  • pd

    preston d.

    10 6 2016 19:30

    25       0

    Grant, you get better at interviewing every time. Raoul, you can't possibly have imagined a richer service—thanks for chasing your real vision. David, thank you for all the reading you do, digesting, and then sharing your evolving perspective with Grant and the rest of us.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    10 6 2016 19:14

    2       1

    Thks David and Grant. Extremely helpful Grant would it be possible to put your mentioned presentation on RV?

  • DS

    David S.

    10 6 2016 19:08

    10       0

    Wikiquote - Tocqueville or Tytler - "Variant: The American Republic will endure, until politicians realize they can bribe the people with their own money."

  • SS

    Sam S.

    10 6 2016 19:06

    4       1

    F*****Awesome! Love the real estate comments, credit spreads, all of it.

  • TH

    Timo H.

    10 6 2016 17:44

    9       0

    There were two so bright guys on the video that I had to wear shades.

  • jw

    jackson w.

    10 6 2016 17:18

    2       0

    great interview. nice to see both sides of the argument

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    10 6 2016 16:06

    12       1

    One of the strongest interviews from both sides in a while on this site. Thanks

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    10 6 2016 15:11

    10       1

    Dear RVTV pls can we get Charles Gave or Louis Gave (again) on please?