Interview with Gerard Minack

Featuring Gerard Minack

Gerard Minack, Founder of Minack Advisors, discusses ways the market may react to future central bank decisions through defensive capital re-allocation, explains how the 8x GDP expansion in Australia’s terms of trade & mining CAPEX “puts the U.S. housing bubble to shame”, and shares a structural outlook on Australia, including weighing the risk/rewards of shorting housing & banks.

Published on
15 April, 2016
Topic
Monetary policy, Financial System, Global Outlook
Duration
45 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Real Estate
Rating
22

Comments

  • CL

    Charl L.

    14 8 2016 12:17

    0       0

    I have lived in Sydney for 18 months now. I have seen this movie before elsewhere. (House prices / affordability). I have however come to the realization that saying the emperor is naked here causes problems.

  • TS

    Tim S.

    28 4 2016 06:21

    0       0

    Grant is more bearish than Minack!

  • GC

    Grant C.

    18 4 2016 01:35

    0       0

    Opposition Labor party will reform negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount to reduce attractiveness of investment, there is a significant probability they will gain power.

  • S

    Sean .

    17 4 2016 22:43

    0       0

    Very good chat. Pity everyone is only talking about the big banks & not A-Reits

  • RS

    Ryan S.

    17 4 2016 12:52

    0       0

    Re interest only loans - nearly all investors are interest only for negative gearing and other tax reasons. My own PPOR mortgage, I'm interest only and putting cash in offset for tax & acct. purposes

  • RS

    Ryan S.

    17 4 2016 12:49

    0       0

    What are the leading employment indicators to watch out for? I agree, unemployment will lead to mortgage stress - but the RBA will cut rates to in response.

  • mc

    mark c.

    17 4 2016 04:51

    3       1

    Note well Aussie home loans are full recourse, no handing back the keys to bank and waltzing off. Aussie's will die in the ditch to keep servicing the loan. Will still crash but slower I reckon.

  • PS

    Paul S.

    17 4 2016 02:18

    2       0

    1 in 4 Owner Occupier mortgages and 2 out of 3 investor mortgage loans are on interest only payment structure. It isn't going to take too much of a shock with debt at record levels to income/GDP.

  • NH

    Nigel H.

    16 4 2016 23:06

    0       0

    Great interview. Would be nice to get an opinion on how negative gearing has propped up the Aussie housing market. No mention of this here or from Tepper's interview.

  • NS

    Nathan S.

    16 4 2016 13:07

    4       0

    Great discussion. I'd be interested in an in-depth analysis of how the Australian govt prevents the Aussie banks going under if/when the housing market falls. The "big 4" are enormous relatively.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    16 4 2016 04:08

    2       0

    Thank you for pointing out and defining the nuance Grant.

  • GC

    Grant C.

    16 4 2016 03:34

    6       0

    Gerard is of the opinion, like other Australian commentators, that there needs to be a shock such as rising unemployment for a housing correction to start. This is at odds to people like J. Tepper.

  • CM

    C M.

    15 4 2016 17:04

    2       28

    Bloviate, bloviate, bloviate... Reminds me of the great know it all at the corner pub.