Interview with Harry Dent

Featuring Harry Dent

Harry Dent, Founder of Dent Research and Author of The Demographic Cliff, sits for a fascinating discussion on how demographics and consumption shifts drive economic cycles, why gold’s reputation as a “crisis hedge” is misunderstood, and how he is hedging the major correction he expects in equity markets.

Published on
7 March, 2016
Topic
US Economy, Recession, Global Outlook
Duration
63 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Commodities
Rating
51

Comments

  • JF

    Jennifer F.

    9 11 2018 07:22

    0       0

    So many people still talking about the importance of gold in Deflation and Inflation. Many on Real vision and also Mike Moloney. So I disagree with Harry there.
    I agree on the demographics thesis. I read a book called the Pig in the Python, about 15 years ago, that explain this demographic thesis. My husband I are very conscious of this and sold our house five years ago in what was certainly a bubble environment.
    I understand the importance of having cash for future buying opportunities. But having AUD? Don't feel confidant holding much of that. Here in Australia the price of Gold has gone up and continues to do so as our dollar devalues. And with many saying the USD will hold strong I don't see the AUD not falling further.
    So I have to heed his advice on demographics but I don't think I can honestly sell my bullion and hold cash, and come out alive in this market.

  • V!

    Volatimothy !.

    15 1 2018 17:22

    0       0

    An explanation for gold not performing well at the end of 2008 could be explained by margin debt. With the market crash wiping out asset value on margin, those with gold may have been forced to sell to cover.

  • SP

    Sat P.

    3 3 2017 12:19

    0       0

    Great interview. I am currently reading his new book "The Sale of a Lifetime" and the trends that he talks about here are covered in more detail. The great thing about his interview here, and in his book, are that he explains why he made small errors over the years and why he made those forecasting mistakes.

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    12 1 2017 12:49

    0       0

    Harry is great to listen to. I've read a few of his books and I tend to agree with him about gold. Thanks Grant for another great interview, I hope you can get Harry back sometime in 2017.

  • us

    urska s.

    8 1 2017 17:34

    0       0

    I remember he said gold will go down. Gold reversed after Trump won. So I am here rewatching this interview - I kept thinking about this interview ever since I saw it....

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    2 1 2017 20:44

    0       0

    I'm glad I watched this piece. I though Mr. Dent was an idiot but I was wrong. It seems like he keeps finding "indicators" to buttress his beliefs rather than looking at indicators and drawing conclusions. Other than that a great interview and I was hopping Grant would challenge him on gold. He omitted in his 1929 homage that Homestake Mining created the greatest wealth in that era. Fundamentally I would argue the point that until he sees Gold as a currency his views will not change.
    1) Gold as currency for > 5,000 years
    2) History of fiat currency
    3) Gold as a store of value regardless of inflation and deflation. Gold at $500 means everything else would be *significantly* lower too.

  • AM

    Alrx M.

    28 4 2016 19:39

    0       0

    Gold, US Treasury notes, possibly cash. The war on cash is over and cash has lost. Your concern about the banks is on target. Credit Unions do not have the leverage of banks and can not trade.

  • AM

    Alrx M.

    28 4 2016 19:35

    0       0

    Harry question: "After a write-down of 30% of all USD debt world wide and gold at $400 oz what will the $400 buy?" I am with Grant that gold holds its purchasing power in both inflation and deflation.

  • AM

    Alrx M.

    28 4 2016 19:31

    0       0

    I have been following Harry Dent and Grant Williams for years. Both are top notch at making their arguments. Harry of deflation and Grant for a dollar/world central bank currency crisis.

  • ZE

    Zeb E.

    12 4 2016 13:58

    0       0

    If you do have cash, and the banks are going to bankrupt where do you put the cash? Do you get the cash as notes and store it in a safe?

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    7 4 2016 21:11

    0       0

    Brilliant interview! Wouldn't agree with everything Dent says but a really interesting and different perspective.

  • EC

    Edward C.

    4 4 2016 13:44

    0       0

    Interesting but too long himself. No of us are oracles. If CBs want inflation, they'll get it but as the Weimar Republic learned, controlling it is something different.

  • TB

    Thomas B.

    2 4 2016 20:37

    1       0

    Mr. Dent's underlying assumption is that faith in the dollar will continue. With continued massive printing of dollars, and the rise of Asia, faith in dollars will be lost, and 5k year old Au will sh

  • BL

    Brian L.

    1 4 2016 22:53

    1       0

    Very interesting. That does have me rethinking gold. If...IF...China takes a dump and the stock market-real estate crashes there, will they still buy gold at current rates? Will the Fed reprice AU?

  • JS

    John S.

    1 4 2016 11:01

    1       0

    His gold thesis ignores the response of the Fed and IMF to global deflation. They will do everything necessary to generate inflation.

  • KS

    Kenneth S.

    28 3 2016 21:05

    0       1

    Fantastic interview. Quite frightening in parts.

  • rs

    richard s.

    26 3 2016 20:11

    0       0

    Cont. where some go,d is necessary is the lesson we learn from 2008. It is possible that banks do indeed close. Today we operate in an extreme environment, and many extreme outcomes are possible.

  • rs

    richard s.

    26 3 2016 20:09

    0       0

    Dent is well worth listening to. 0% rates are highly deflationary on many levels. Gold is a difficult issue. If the major buyers of gold are made poorer, gold will likely suffer, possibly by a lot.

  • WK

    William K.

    26 3 2016 14:01

    0       0

    Retail. Hyperbolic.

  • SL

    Stephen L.

    22 3 2016 11:53

    0       0

    Absolutely loved that video, just the right amount of debate and disagreement ... Thanks Grant!

  • GC

    Gary C.

    19 3 2016 19:12

    0       0

    Mea Culpa, Having a " Bias Reversus Giganticus Americanus" I have avoided anything "Dented" for years. Now I find myself in the Amazon ordering one of his books. Compelling logic for collapse. AU up

  • GC

    Gary C.

    19 3 2016 17:22

    1       0

    88 comments, Wow, I haven't even listened yet! Real Vision getting folks to throw tomatoes or flowers. R & G..proof of concept ....

  • SF

    Steven F.

    18 3 2016 04:25

    2       8

    this is not a real vision caliber individual. I love RV. I stand behind it vehemently. but I'm disappointed.

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    14 3 2016 13:51

    7       0

    When it comes to demographics, Neil Howe resonates much closer with me. Through vocation, I've learned that 'predicting' is a probability game not a certainty. Dent's confidence suggests overfit.

  • WM

    Will M.

    11 3 2016 20:23

    7       0

    Now, I do not agree with Harry's comments about gold. I am a strong proponent & owner of the metal but it is important to listen and hear divergent opinions. Lets get Martin Armstrong on here asap!

  • WM

    Will M.

    11 3 2016 20:21

    6       0

    Good interview. I do not think Harry is a "whacko" at all. He has an opinion & much of what he says lines up with many other RV guests. I think his comments of the K cycle & demographics are sound

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    11 3 2016 00:41

    1       2

    He seems part genius and part idiot. A lot of what he says makes sense and a lot seems to be pretty far out there.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    10 3 2016 23:47

    0       0

    Fleckenstein answers a qu about H D's predictions. (pity about the site). Bill is very astute and tells it straight up IMO //kingworldnews.com/bill-fleckenstein-addresses-harry-dents
    RV debate next?

  • DH

    Dale H.

    10 3 2016 21:02

    0       0

    Stevan Weiler's research: This is not 2008, at least not for gold.
    https://www.goldmoney.com/our-research/goldmoney-insights/this-is-not-2008-at-least-not-for-gold

  • DH

    Dale H.

    10 3 2016 19:54

    5       0

    Boomers + ZIRP + NIRP + savings eroded + CBs lose face + "markets" cease to be held up + film Big Short + HFT BS + 0 liquidity + war (?) (+ or - Trump?) + ? black swans = boomers and othersbuy gold ?

  • CP

    Christopher P.

    10 3 2016 17:43

    4       0

    Agree. Where Mr Dent goes wrong is his interpretation of inflation. The "printing" of dollars will cause a loss of faith in this fiat toilet paper as there will be infinitely more of them circulating.

  • CF

    Christian F.

    10 3 2016 15:06

    3       0

    Everything he mentioned is under the assumption the U.S dollar remains strong near term and long term. If there is monetary reform or the Dollar loses reserve status his ideas on Gold are not feasible

  • CF

    Christian F.

    10 3 2016 15:03

    8       0

    Its not about us falling into a "Gold group think". With negative interest rates it is much cheaper for individuals, institutions, and wealth funds to hold gold than dollars.

  • KE

    Kenan E.

    10 3 2016 12:19

    5       0

    Look at the great depression. Dow was at its low in 06/1932. The Dow/Gold-ratio was at its low at 02/1933. So althoug this crisis was highly deflationary, owning gold was a pretty good deal.

  • KC

    Kendrick C.

    10 3 2016 07:38

    9       1

    Its so funny how the viewers have fallen into groupthink with regards to gold. I view this interview as reminder that opposing views exist and still may be valid.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    10 3 2016 07:09

    1       0

    Stocks collapsing means earnings collapsed. Fwd SP500-PE 16.55 (Birinyi) is not bubble expensive. Debt is a huge problem but not sure how ALL companies go bankrupt. People still need food/housing/med

  • CW

    Chad W.

    10 3 2016 06:13

    6       1

    This is the problem, don't get me wrong I love my RV, but listening to "all sides" it's all too much. I can't wait for this thing to play out one way or the other, just get on with it. Reset already!

  • FT

    Frank T.

    10 3 2016 03:52

    1       0

    It's making sense to me and the sacred gold standard didn't mean that we were not practicing fractional reserve, before Nixon.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    9 3 2016 20:44

    2       2

    Mr. Dent is offering a macro cautious approach suggesting careful consideration to having downside protection. Arguing this or that won't matter if it happens. Well presented----thank you.

  • CF

    Christian F.

    9 3 2016 18:45

    5       0

    Sad to see a person of his caliber be anti gold. I just ran his so called 30 year commodity index chart with one overlapping the price of Gold over the same period. No correlation whatsoever.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    9 3 2016 08:13

    3       0

    Jim Rogers currently believes that the ldollar will go up as does Raoul Specifically Rogers owns gold and would add if it dropped below 1000. I own gold too but I'm very open to other views thks rvtv

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    9 3 2016 08:06

    4       1

    I'm sure viewers asked for Dent. Most of his thesis makes sense. He believes deflation will kill all asset prices including gold at that time. It is possible. He's right in that it happened in 2008.

  • KS

    Kashyap S.

    9 3 2016 07:55

    5       4

    Gold was, is, and always will be money. Human nature is not 'modelable' in 80-year cycles. Good to know the people on the other side of the gold trade are not really smart or know something I don't.

  • KS

    Kashyap S.

    9 3 2016 07:51

    2       13

    Inflation is defined as an increase in the money supply and deflation as a decrease in the money supply. Birth and death have nothing to do with either. Also, credit is not money. This guy is nuts.

  • LK

    Lisa K.

    9 3 2016 04:53

    7       0

    If gold goes to $700, Grant will buy Dent dinner but It will be the drive thru of hisr choice, LOL. Same here, but I think it will go to $5000 before 2038. Here's to a shorter wait!

  • yz

    yue z.

    9 3 2016 04:49

    11       0

    Harry is a "whack job"? Since 90% of what Harry said in the interview is in concert with most of the smartest guys interviewed on RV then what they hell are they? Think about your comments!

  • PB

    Peter B.

    9 3 2016 01:45

    8       1

    While I can see why some get rubbed the wrong way by his approach, his is spot on in many ways. Only a fool wouldn't soak up hat he's saying and incorporate into your own framework

  • GF

    Guillaume F.

    9 3 2016 01:07

    13       0

    I am wondering if he takes into account the fact that the dollar use to be convertible into gold before 1971.

    Therefore if you owned gold you were holding cash.

  • MS

    Marc S.

    8 3 2016 22:19

    5       6

    I'm all for different viewpoints, but this gentleman is a snake oil salesman pure & simple. Just google his past predictions or the performance of his discontinued fund(s). So much ego, so little else

  • BV

    Bryan V.

    8 3 2016 20:53

    5       0

    Harry, "Dollar Up, Gold Down in Dollar terms". Grant, "Counter party risks"? Harry, "I've got nothing".

  • VK

    Vinay K.

    8 3 2016 20:32

    2       2

    Gold is about the money supply and absolute abuse of it. It didn't react immediately in 2008 because it wasn't clear just how hard Ben was going to print.

  • JD

    John D.

    8 3 2016 18:19

    8       0

    Excellent interview Grant!

  • SA

    Shawn A.

    8 3 2016 18:01

    6       2

    If assets go down 2/3 and gold drops 1/2 gold still wins. If assets go down 2/3 bank equity disappears and banks fail. How do you hold cash? I really want to know. Fantastic interview otherwise.

  • JC

    Jan C.

    8 3 2016 17:51

    11       0

    Milton's Quote of the week Has to be:

    Dying is deflationary!

    LOL

  • JW

    J W.

    8 3 2016 12:49

    4       0

    The fox vs the hedgehog. Graham, a true fox keeps asking "where am I wrong?" Dent, a smart hedgehog, says demographics!!! Like many hedgehogs, though, he doesn't say "I was wrong on Dow 35k". Excellen

  • JS

    John S.

    8 3 2016 07:34

    7       2

    His gold thesis is weak

  • WP

    Wealthsteading P.

    8 3 2016 07:32

    18       2

    Count how many times Dent says he can "predict". If he had such a clear picture of the future over the past 30+ years, why isn't his net worth larger?

  • MC

    Michael C.

    8 3 2016 07:02

    5       0

    The crux of their disagreement wrt gold is whether it is an inflation hedge or a (govt) confidence hedge

  • GH

    Gregory H.

    8 3 2016 06:32

    2       0

    "Money Printing" (or "QE", which is a deflationary asset swap for the private sector) will not cause inflation at all, if it stays in the banking system (not lent out), no matter how many trillion...

  • GH

    Gregory H.

    8 3 2016 06:20

    5       1

    The fact that he mentioned Lacy Hunt means you should take his thoughts quite seriously... Not sure about his gold take, but definitely agree on his cash, long term US Bonds, short SPY strategy...

  • JD

    John D.

    8 3 2016 06:09

    2       0

    "Beware of Free Gifts" The Big Reset is COMING... Nice Job Harry...

  • TH

    Timo H.

    8 3 2016 05:38

    1       0

    Dollar is no different from other currencies. In the end, they will print also dollars. Lots of them. Otherwise the financial system goes belly up. Now look at who's in power. The financial system!

  • BG

    Bruno G.

    8 3 2016 04:58

    7       7

    Whack job. He has no credibility. He is obviously very intelligent, kinda like the mad scientist type. their is a reason you keep them in the lab and not let them in the real world, practical idiots

  • TS

    Thierry S.

    8 3 2016 03:55

    2       1

    What will happen to the value of the cash when bank will get bail-in...?
    Do he think us bonds will protect from that ?

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    8 3 2016 03:37

    14       0

    Everyone has their differing opinions on the various interviewees. I am glad tRV mixes it up and not get too myopic. Perhaps we can have more Point / CounterPoint shows?! .

  • TR

    Thomas R.

    8 3 2016 02:34

    3       0

    Also, with the possible exception of B.Fleck., I'm curious why people don't advocate being short the market. Example - rolling S&P puts on each moving avg resistance level.

  • TR

    Thomas R.

    8 3 2016 02:12

    9       1

    I've been waiting for RV to have a gold bear on. With avg gold production costs >$1,000 for gold to go to $700 means a dramatic fall in demand to match the dramatic fall in production. Don't see it

  • MS

    Mitch S.

    8 3 2016 01:51

    3       1

    hmmm, cash is the safe place to park assets? Can you say counter party risk?

  • dm

    dan m.

    8 3 2016 01:27

    3       4

    Theory fails so add a 'geopolitical' and 'innovation' cycle. Pure quackery!

  • dm

    dan m.

    8 3 2016 01:21

    2       3

    FADE

  • dm

    dan m.

    8 3 2016 01:19

    4       4

    This dude for real?

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    8 3 2016 01:16

    5       2

    Harry forgets that gold price is manipulated, and that gold is the canary in the gold mine in a world that lives by fiat currency. Enjoyed him, but he has totally missed boat on gold.

  • DL

    Derek L.

    8 3 2016 01:14

    7       0

    He's wrong a lot but I enjoy listening to Harry. His cyclical models do not/cannot fully account for exogenous events IMO. Don't believe gold is or will trade like other commodities.

  • GG

    George G.

    8 3 2016 00:25

    6       0

    makes me nervous when someone is so sure of his predictions...Has a blind spot about gold like Peter Schiff has about bitcoin

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    7 3 2016 23:55

    4       0

    What about corruption and greed that creates "growth" that is not real. Deregulation and credit expansion gave us the boom boom 1990's not demographics - labor has not been given a raise since 1970.

  • LS

    Lou S.

    7 3 2016 23:32

    7       0

    Great talk about demographics.
    I don' t believe in central bank intervention and creating this much impact on real economics.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    7 3 2016 23:20

    5       14

    "If" I wanted to hear Harry Dent's sensationalism it would be more appropriate to look for it on ZeroHedge, not on RVTV. Sorry, you missed on this one.

  • mc

    mannix c.

    7 3 2016 22:48

    9       0

    It would be interesting to see the Permanent Portfolio covered. (25% cash, 25% gold, 25% Long Gov Bonds and 25% stocks) . Everyone hates some aspect of the portfolio which may be a great sign.

  • BT

    Bennet T.

    7 3 2016 22:15

    8       0

    YUP - CAN'T WAIT FOR ARMSTRONG INTERVIEW!

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    7 3 2016 22:13

    0       4

    no*

  • JM

    Joseph M.

    7 3 2016 22:13

    8       0

    i got not clue what'll happen macro wise but its refreshing to see some discourse on RTV

  • DH

    Dale H.

    7 3 2016 22:13

    1       4

    I meant: We are not fools needing to be told (by the infallible 'master')

  • DH

    Dale H.

    7 3 2016 21:52

    7       5

    Boring, H talks too much in sound bites and "I know everything" vs answering the actual qu wth logical follow through. Loud, egotistical & holes in his thesis IMO. We're not fools &know the situation

  • HF

    Hamish F.

    7 3 2016 21:08

    2       4

    A bit extreme for me and to one sided in his opinions.

  • DF

    David F.

    7 3 2016 20:54

    10       1

    I wish Grant would have pushed back harder on Gold.

  • db

    don b.

    7 3 2016 20:35

    9       2

    So governments are going to print 125 trillion and gold is going to crash. OK

  • db

    don b.

    7 3 2016 20:03

    4       4

    Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall. Proverbs 16:18

  • KD

    Kris D.

    7 3 2016 19:32

    4       0

    Do not agree with the Gold thing. Loved the passion he was explaining his stance though. Good interview.

  • jd

    john d.

    7 3 2016 19:12

    10       0

    I would side with Grant's analysis vs. Harry's every time. Grant is thoughtful, well reasoned and willing to listen to counter views. Harry's cup is already full. Good interview regardless.

  • jm

    joeri m.

    7 3 2016 19:11

    2       0

    Possible explanation of why gold price declined during 2008 crisis: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2013/04/15/we-have-seen-gold-prices-act-like-this-before/

  • dw

    darcy w.

    7 3 2016 19:05

    10       0

    I've never been more entertained by so much doom and gloom. Also appreciate hearing the differing view point on Gold. And appreciate the emphasis on cycles pushing the timeline over many decades

  • BV

    Bryan V.

    7 3 2016 18:43

    3       1

    That's what I love about the interviewers on this program. They have the knowledge to challenge what is being said in a respectful way. There may be fewer $, but with counter party risks (banks).

  • mg

    mark g.

    7 3 2016 18:28

    4       2

    Scared to think what if... even if he's half right. He should stick to the demographic facts instead of recommending what etf to buy or sell. Personally think it would give him more credence.

  • CE

    Carl E.

    7 3 2016 18:27

    30       1

    Mr. Dent seems very confident about every prediction he makes which makes me wary of everything he says. I find people more credible when they give probabilities (implicit or explicit) to outcomes.

  • Nb

    Nathaniel b.

    7 3 2016 18:02

    0       0

    anyone knows a good book/ressource to learn about the Kondratiev waves?

  • GT

    Graham T.

    7 3 2016 18:02

    6       0

    Outstanding mate. RV in a nutshell.

  • WM

    William M.

    7 3 2016 17:21

    8       1

    One perspective that's really missing from this and RV is that population growth on a limited planet is really the ultimate ponzi scheme/bubble....

  • WM

    William M.

    7 3 2016 17:20

    12       1

    I certainly agree with Grant on gold especially if Dent is right...if things are that bad I don't see the dollar as any more credible than other fiat currency.

  • WM

    William M.

    7 3 2016 17:18

    3       0

    Another great interview. Demographics are a key part of the long term picture and certainly create economic drag...but higher productivity via accelerating innovation can overcome this somewhat.

  • TM

    Taylor M.

    7 3 2016 16:53

    0       0

    I would like to see demographics on the world.

  • TF

    Tim F.

    7 3 2016 16:50

    13       3

    Grant was hard pressed to even ask a question. Prefer a dialog as opposed to a pitch.

  • JO

    John O.

    7 3 2016 16:37

    3       0

    If emerging markets and India are the next bull then by his argument gold should go higher. Great otherwise.

  • BB

    Brian B.

    7 3 2016 16:36

    14       0

    Can't wait for the Martin Armstrong interview. As far as long term modeling the business cycle, Armstrong is our modern day Kondratieff. And like Kondratieff, he was nearly killed for his discovery.

  • EB

    ELIZABETH B.

    7 3 2016 16:25

    20       1

    Dent has saved me a lot of money. Moved out of TX before their crash in the '80s, profited and out before the housing crash of 2007-08. Don't see Dent as a "salesman". He is a historian.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    7 3 2016 15:55

    6       0

    Sobering that Dent sees the next upturn occurring after 2020. Demographics & consumption matters. I see Gold in a bull market.

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    7 3 2016 15:22

    5       2

    Interesting argument on gold. Demographic deflation makes sense. Debt destruction makes sense. Hard to overcome idea that good, unencumbered "money"(not fiat) becomes worth less in that environment

  • KA

    Kelly A.

    7 3 2016 15:18

    12       4

    Gave up on Dent years ago. Great salesman & he makes so many predictions he can be right no matter what! Surprised to c him on RV. Seems lightweight & sales-ish. Am i wrong? What am i missing?

  • bp

    bart p.

    7 3 2016 14:46

    6       3

    Great interview on the deflationary danger which we're facing. I do however disagree with him on gold, he looks at it like it's a commodity, which IMO it's not.

  • DV

    David V.

    7 3 2016 14:42

    49       2

    Dent wrote "Great Jobs Ahead" in 1996. For China maybe. He predicted DOW 41,000 by 2010, then DOW 3000 by 2013. Dent predicts Gold will drop to $700 or possibly $250.
    Take him with a grain of salt.

  • RR

    Robert R.

    7 3 2016 14:22

    15       0

    "Economists never had sex". lol