Interview with Jawad Mian – Part One

Published on
April 29th, 2016
Topic
Career, Micro, Global Investment
Duration
61 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit

Interview with Jawad Mian – Part One

The Interview ·
Featuring Jawad Mian

Published on: April 29th, 2016 • Duration: 61 minutes • Asset Class: Currencies, Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit • Topic: Career, Micro, Global Investment

Jawad Mian, Founder of Stray Reflections, lays out the bull case in Part One of this extraordinary interview, explaining why he sees growth conditions as having improved dramatically since the '08 crisis and why data which may seem poor at first blush may mask better long-term cyclical market dynamics. From there, Jawad touches on a wide variety of topics from Fed policy to U.S. dollar trends to bond and equity cycles. The perspective offered by this brilliant mind will broaden your worldview and give you a range of original insight to blend with your investing framework.

Comments

  • JR
    Jeremy R.
    22 February 2018 @ 21:56
    Stop focusing on the Central Banks Grant haha :)
  • DP
    David P.
    24 August 2017 @ 12:47
    Coming back to this brilliant interview... He was spot on on the dollar and the hikes.
  • JW
    James W.
    18 June 2017 @ 04:35
    This is an excellent interview. Jawad is obviously someone who thinks for himself, and provided some very perceptive views.
  • AK
    Anthony K.
    10 May 2017 @ 13:33
    While I dont agree with everything it was nice to hear an intelligent and cogent bull case that makes you think outside your own box
  • JL
    Jimmy L.
    28 November 2016 @ 14:06
    As of November 2016, Jawad"s case of higher S&P and higher bond yields is right on track.....we need to get this guy back on a follow up interview
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    14 October 2016 @ 13:57
    Thanks a lot for such a great bull case discussion. Nice charts also. High five!
  • JH
    Joel H.
    13 August 2016 @ 17:53
    Appreciate this interview. Like the guest. Disagree with almost everything said. Interesting looking back, and despite everything, stocks are higher.
  • SC
    Sajad C.
    1 August 2016 @ 20:20
    Best interview on here. You may not agree with everything he says, but for his time horizon and from his bullish perspective his arguments are playing out in the market, contrary to all the negative sentiment.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    25 July 2016 @ 04:19
    Just fantastic. Really like Jawad's unique view & approach. Grant had excellent challenge points & questions. Tx.
  • DR
    Daniel R.
    24 July 2016 @ 15:47
    Grant I imagine you have already gone back to work on what Jawad has said, to test your theories one more time. I'd enjoy an update from you or a colleague on the counterpoints to his arguments on margin, debt, buybacks, interest rates, etc. Point by point. He says we have seen the inflections...have we?
  • DR
    Daniel R.
    24 July 2016 @ 15:39
    I would enjoy a transcript of this interview, only because of the speed of thought and loss of some of the word clarity. This is an absolutely amazing interview. My initial thought is how do we know that we have injected just the right amount of central bank intervention for near term future growth? It seems both bear/bull scenarios will play out, it's just a matter of timing and extent. I may have just stated the obvious but the next move is what is most important to any investor, and to me I would argue a 20% correction is more probable first than the bull scenario which is a 6-18 month forecasted probability
  • MM
    Mark M.
    14 July 2016 @ 23:23
    Outstanding
  • KH
    Kevin H.
    24 May 2016 @ 09:48
    Very good choice of interviewee, Jawad is. Very skilled interviewer, Grant is. 2 thumbs up for RV
  • KH
    Kevin H.
    24 May 2016 @ 09:37
    RV raised the bar over R.Pal - K.Monahan discussion with this excellent interview. Quite a few gems from Jawad, with Grant eliciting the best out of his interviewee with counterpoints subtly delivered
  • RD
    Richard D.
    16 May 2016 @ 14:22
    Buybacks good for individual stocks ? Yes. Is an index made up of many individual stocks ? Yes .. Case close http://www.ibtimes.com/behind-sp-500-index-how-stock-buybacks-fuel-bull-market-2017957
  • RD
    Richard D.
    16 May 2016 @ 14:14
    3) Income - on aggregate is rising. Please remove the income of the top 5% of the population and let me know the trend ?
  • RD
    Richard D.
    16 May 2016 @ 14:09
    2) Earnings - Need we say more ? It's a function of buybacks.
  • RD
    Richard D.
    16 May 2016 @ 14:08
    It's like saying "I see cloud when it rains..." http://www.factset.com/buyback
  • RD
    Richard D.
    16 May 2016 @ 14:08
    Just want to touch on a few of Jawad's arguments ... 1) Buyback is a coincident indicator - being a coincident indicator have very little to do with its effect on the indices.
  • sp
    shashwat p.
    16 May 2016 @ 07:46
    There are much better bull arguments out there than this one. If this is all there is, then we are F***ed
  • PN
    Paul N.
    14 May 2016 @ 14:15
    Great counterpoint to the current bear thesis. A definitely contrarian view which makes it all the more interesting.
  • CH
    Chris H.
    11 May 2016 @ 21:00
    Great Interview
  • DS
    David S.
    9 May 2016 @ 07:34
    What a pleasure to watch. An excellent example of respect while discussing different points of view. "It is ok to disagree, it is not ok to be disagreeable" paraphrasing John Wooden basketball coach.
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    8 May 2016 @ 06:24
    Need to watch again to take all of Jawad do points in. One point that rung for me is Jawa do notion of no bubbles. In socal, real estate is w as your above peak of 2007 and many makts are too. Lovedit
  • MA
    Mudassir A.
    7 May 2016 @ 18:43
    Any other Pakistani's around here, listening to Jawad Mians bull case?
  • JB
    Joel B.
    6 May 2016 @ 22:17
    I thought this was a brilliant discussion. I'm a stray reflections subscriber as well, I'm more inline with Grant than Jawad, but the key difference is time-frame. Jawad is tactical 6-18 months.
  • RK
    Ralph K.
    6 May 2016 @ 02:14
    Great conversation! Grant had difficulty with volume growth over past years being masked by Dollar strength. Raising rates would increase effect leading to negative #s.
  • A
    Aaron .
    3 May 2016 @ 15:20
    Great interview - glad to hear from Jawad finally. I was one of those emails :-) Now, love to see you secure an interview with Brian Wesbury of FirstTrust.
  • SS
    Steven S.
    3 May 2016 @ 12:24
    Book; Financial Founding Fathers by Write & Cowen: U.S. became financially strong in 1800 from cheep labor and some resources.. Including protectionist congressional legislation. No inflation please.
  • CC
    Charles C.
    3 May 2016 @ 00:22
    While technical factors can move markets for a while, at some point fundamental values matter, or we're not investors. Maybe they won't matter in 12-18 months but they will matter eventually.
  • CC
    Charles C.
    3 May 2016 @ 00:20
    Thanks for having Jawad on. It certainly challenges my world view and that is healthy.
  • GW
    Grant W. | Founder
    2 May 2016 @ 22:32
    Andrea... I noticed after the interview.... could have cried!! Nobody told me. I'm a sucker for those details too :) As you'll see in Part Two....
  • AC
    Andrea C.
    2 May 2016 @ 21:32
    Sorry... just a sucker for these details... Cut the loose button strings, Grant !
  • mj
    maria j.
    2 May 2016 @ 13:14
    The Fed is one and done Please bring him back in Sept
  • mj
    maria j.
    2 May 2016 @ 12:55
    If everything is so great then why does Japan have negative rates and the middle class is getting crushed they cant re-leverage because most have low paying jobs
  • GH
    Gloria H.
    2 May 2016 @ 12:34
    On what basis does he conclude that the US will begin fiscal spending and growth will normalize? There is NO reason to assume Congrees will emerge from its dysfunction anytime soon.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    1 May 2016 @ 22:08
    As in another great recent RV and in the words of Charlie Monger; invert, invert, invert. Excellent curation by R & G for the dichotomy in analysis of the same data. Bravo.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    1 May 2016 @ 21:16
    Well done Grant - must have been tough to maintain such a diplomatic questioning approach with some of the suggested bull case arguments. Great interview!!
  • GW
    Grant W. | Founder
    1 May 2016 @ 21:12
    Thanks for the comments. Jawed is a brilliant guy for whom I have a huge amount of respect. We disagree on a lot of things, but respectful debate is a key part of RV and I loved every second of this
  • DL
    Derek L.
    1 May 2016 @ 19:43
    Excellent. Really enjoy RV's commitment to looking at bull/bear views. Avoids the group-think bias. IMO Jawad is too sanguine regarding state of world economies/CB's.
  • CH
    Calvin H.
    1 May 2016 @ 14:59
    Happy to hear a bull case argued and happier that it's as weak as the rest. Jawad was K'Od on Japan at the 10:30'. Well done Grant. Nuff said. I will only watch Part 2 since it is on the ME region.
  • us
    urska s.
    1 May 2016 @ 12:40
    Thanks RV! This is where the sheep and wolves get separated. Who are you? the fact ur reading this....;)
  • BG
    Bruno G.
    1 May 2016 @ 12:16
    It's like the lady with the large fungating breast mass metastatic to her bone. And saying well your heart, lungs,kidneys, and vision are great you look good just keep enjoying life everything's good
  • MS
    Michael S.
    1 May 2016 @ 12:01
    Wonderfully complex but, Jawad "the king has no clothes"
  • AE
    Alex E.
    1 May 2016 @ 04:00
    I'm with Razvan on this one. If what Jian says is true, why are CBs going negative on interest rates? Why r imports crashing? Why is the global economy slowing? I c grief before rainbows and unicorns!
  • AV
    Alvern V.
    30 April 2016 @ 17:43
    More Adult diapers ate sold in Japan vs Baby diapers. Good luck with the growth prospects in Japan. Unless Jawad addresses the global declining demographics, trend will continue for slower growth.
  • NS
    Niek S.
    30 April 2016 @ 17:36
    Reminds me of something that Soros once said; 'I became an anti-contrarian because everybody was a contrarian'. In the short/medium- term Jawad may possibly be right. Long- term I agree with Grant.
  • BG
    Bruno G.
    30 April 2016 @ 17:09
    I found Jawad annoying. Like let's not focus on CB. Here if we focus on this unicorn that can fly and this unicorn that has supernatural abilities in the end events will normalize and rainbows forever
  • AV
    Alvern V.
    30 April 2016 @ 16:15
    The referee's in a game should be invisible. These CB's ARE the focus of the game. The CB's are using flawed models and when you use the wrong model, the results will be wrong every single time.
  • FS
    Fred S.
    30 April 2016 @ 14:27
    If rates rise to more "normal" levels, won't that hit bank's income statements? Another bail out? How does that affect the bull case?
  • FS
    Fred S.
    30 April 2016 @ 14:27
    Jawad looks at historical events as base cases. Banks seem to be setting up for another disintermediation. S&L's in '80's paid high rates to savers and collected low rates from borrowers. ...
  • BV
    Bryan V.
    30 April 2016 @ 13:31
    So growth in markets will continue so long as nominal growth exceeds both 10 year yields and credit growth rates. While CBs have increased credit capacity, demand headwinds still persists.
  • nc
    neil c.
    30 April 2016 @ 12:53
    Wow Ali vs Frazier
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    30 April 2016 @ 12:50
    Thank you Real Vision for showing two sides of the story - corporate media only shows the bulls and even though most of us are bears - it is important to listen to the other side. Great interview!
  • GB
    Grant B.
    30 April 2016 @ 10:52
    Very good. Insightful views + process. I liked his rate of change in key metrics analytics. Much better than historical analysis of my best trades a la Bronte Capital. I look fwd to Part II.
  • JC
    Justin C.
    30 April 2016 @ 09:55
    Excellent. Great to hear a more positive angle on things. Latterly there has been more balance in the range of arguments presented which is good. Successful pessimists are a rare breed!
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    30 April 2016 @ 08:39
    Great interview, 95% of the RV Experts are bearish, finally a bull case very well argumented. Brilliant Mind by the way. Super Interview.
  • SK
    Stephen K.
    30 April 2016 @ 08:32
    Great interview. A major point for me is that your perspective depends on how you weight the myriad indicators, and bull vs bear is highly time dependent.
  • IC
    Iain C.
    30 April 2016 @ 07:58
    Excellent. As others have said, Jawad seems to be saying 'not quite yet', but the bull case seems to be that fundamentals can be ignored for a while longer, not that they do not ultimately matter.
  • RA
    Razvan A.
    30 April 2016 @ 03:34
    Jawed clearly articulated the bull case for the near future (6-18 mths), but he pointed out scenarios where he would get on the bearish side, and these scenarios don't diverge from Grant's points.
  • RA
    Razvan A.
    30 April 2016 @ 03:28
    The discussion has the form of a debate, however it could very well happen that both Jawed and Grant are right, just on a different timeline.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    30 April 2016 @ 01:16
    i personally buy more into Grant's line of argument but Jawed made me think. the discussion format "bear vs bull" is thus most helpful to form "better" opinions. tks a lot RVTV.
  • DT
    David T.
    29 April 2016 @ 23:21
    Great video. Would love to see more bull vs. bear discussions. Always very valuable to challenge your investment thesis no matter which side you're on.
  • DC
    Dale C.
    29 April 2016 @ 19:40
    Central Bank experimentation will have unintended consequences that will shock our world and our heirs will talk about what happened to us for a thousand years.
  • ss
    sid s.
    29 April 2016 @ 19:28
    can't wait for part 2. Thanks Grant.
  • DG
    Dana G.
    29 April 2016 @ 17:47
    How is an environment normal if pension companies are losing a lot money. Retirement is one of the worlds biggest problem. Rates go up or we can't fund retirement: that simple.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    29 April 2016 @ 17:47
    Brilliant intellectual debate and I was really intrigued by Jawad's bullish arguments, but I am not persuaded. Grant won the debate hands down for me in this most informative discussion
  • LA
    Linda A.
    29 April 2016 @ 17:05
    Great debate! This is not a normal mkt -unprecedented money printing by all CB;'s. When did borrowing become free? How is 0 & neg. rates normal? Isn't China & unemployment data skewed?
  • WE
    William E.
    29 April 2016 @ 16:45
    Grant - that shirt button needs attention.
  • JM
    Justin M.
    29 April 2016 @ 15:55
    Impressive interview. Thoughtful and well presented.
  • RA
    Ricardo A.
    29 April 2016 @ 15:45
    Best interview of 2016 so far. Much better to see 2 people disagreeing than agreeing. Well done Graham
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    29 April 2016 @ 15:33
    Coherent, cohesive, and compelling thoughts by Jawad, collared by perceived probabilities not mistaken as certainties. Cheekily contrarian. Cheers.
  • KC
    Klendathu C.
    29 April 2016 @ 14:52
    Realvision at its finest. Great interview Jawad gave as good as he took if not better. Safe to say, I will need to watch this a few times before I can form an opinion.

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