Interview with Jawad Mian – Part One

Featuring Jawad Mian

Jawad Mian, Founder of Stray Reflections, lays out the bull case in Part One of this extraordinary interview, explaining why he sees growth conditions as having improved dramatically since the ’08 crisis and why data which may seem poor at first blush may mask better long-term cyclical market dynamics. From there, Jawad touches on a wide variety of topics from Fed policy to U.S. dollar trends to bond and equity cycles. The perspective offered by this brilliant mind will broaden your worldview and give you a range of original insight to blend with your investing framework.

Published on
29 April, 2016
Topic
Global Investment, Micro, Career
Duration
61 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Equities
Rating
46

Comments

  • JR

    Jeremy R.

    22 2 2018 21:56

    0       0

    Stop focusing on the Central Banks Grant haha :)

  • DP

    David P.

    24 8 2017 12:47

    2       0

    Coming back to this brilliant interview... He was spot on on the dollar and the hikes.

  • JW

    James W.

    18 6 2017 04:35

    0       0

    This is an excellent interview. Jawad is obviously someone who thinks for himself, and provided some very perceptive views.

  • AK

    Anthony K.

    10 5 2017 13:33

    2       0

    While I dont agree with everything it was nice to hear an intelligent and cogent bull case that makes you think outside your own box

  • JL

    Jimmy L.

    28 11 2016 14:06

    3       0

    As of November 2016, Jawad"s case of higher S&P and higher bond yields is right on track.....we need to get this guy back on a follow up interview

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    14 10 2016 13:57

    0       0

    Thanks a lot for such a great bull case discussion. Nice charts also. High five!

  • JH

    Joel H.

    13 8 2016 17:53

    1       1

    Appreciate this interview. Like the guest. Disagree with almost everything said. Interesting looking back, and despite everything, stocks are higher.

  • SC

    Sajad C.

    1 8 2016 20:20

    3       0

    Best interview on here. You may not agree with everything he says, but for his time horizon and from his bullish perspective his arguments are playing out in the market, contrary to all the negative sentiment.

  • PC

    Peter C.

    25 7 2016 04:19

    1       0

    Just fantastic. Really like Jawad's unique view & approach. Grant had excellent challenge points & questions. Tx.

  • DR

    Daniel R.

    24 7 2016 15:47

    1       0

    Grant I imagine you have already gone back to work on what Jawad has said, to test your theories one more time. I'd enjoy an update from you or a colleague on the counterpoints to his arguments on margin, debt, buybacks, interest rates, etc. Point by point. He says we have seen the inflections...have we?

  • DR

    Daniel R.

    24 7 2016 15:39

    1       0

    I would enjoy a transcript of this interview, only because of the speed of thought and loss of some of the word clarity. This is an absolutely amazing interview.

    My initial thought is how do we know that we have injected just the right amount of central bank intervention for near term future growth? It seems both bear/bull scenarios will play out, it's just a matter of timing and extent. I may have just stated the obvious but the next move is what is most important to any investor, and to me I would argue a 20% correction is more probable first than the bull scenario which is a 6-18 month forecasted probability

  • MM

    Mark M.

    14 7 2016 23:23

    1       0

    Outstanding

  • KH

    Kevin H.

    24 5 2016 09:48

    2       0

    Very good choice of interviewee, Jawad is.
    Very skilled interviewer, Grant is.
    2 thumbs up for RV

  • KH

    Kevin H.

    24 5 2016 09:37

    2       0

    RV raised the bar over R.Pal - K.Monahan discussion with this excellent interview. Quite a few gems from Jawad, with Grant eliciting the best out of his interviewee with counterpoints subtly delivered

  • RD

    Richard D.

    16 5 2016 14:22

    1       1

    Buybacks good for individual stocks ? Yes. Is an index made up of many individual stocks ? Yes .. Case close
    http://www.ibtimes.com/behind-sp-500-index-how-stock-buybacks-fuel-bull-market-2017957

  • RD

    Richard D.

    16 5 2016 14:14

    2       0

    3) Income - on aggregate is rising. Please remove the income of the top 5% of the population and let me know the trend ?

  • RD

    Richard D.

    16 5 2016 14:09

    0       0

    2) Earnings - Need we say more ? It's a function of buybacks.

  • RD

    Richard D.

    16 5 2016 14:08

    1       0

    It's like saying "I see cloud when it rains..."
    http://www.factset.com/buyback

  • RD

    Richard D.

    16 5 2016 14:08

    0       0

    Just want to touch on a few of Jawad's arguments ...

    1) Buyback is a coincident indicator - being a coincident indicator have very little to do with its effect on the indices.

  • sp

    shashwat p.

    16 5 2016 07:46

    1       1

    There are much better bull arguments out there than this one. If this is all there is, then we are F***ed

  • PN

    Paul N.

    14 5 2016 14:15

    1       0

    Great counterpoint to the current bear thesis. A definitely contrarian view which makes it all the more interesting.

  • CH

    Chris H.

    11 5 2016 21:00

    2       0

    Great Interview

  • DS

    David S.

    9 5 2016 07:34

    5       0

    What a pleasure to watch. An excellent example of respect while discussing different points of view. "It is ok to disagree, it is not ok to be disagreeable" paraphrasing John Wooden basketball coach.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    8 5 2016 06:24

    0       0

    Need to watch again to take all of Jawad do points in. One point that rung for me is Jawa do notion of no bubbles. In socal, real estate is w as your above peak of 2007 and many makts are too. Lovedit

  • MA

    Mudassir A.

    7 5 2016 18:43

    1       0

    Any other Pakistani's around here, listening to Jawad Mians bull case?

  • JB

    Joel B.

    6 5 2016 22:17

    3       0

    I thought this was a brilliant discussion. I'm a stray reflections subscriber as well, I'm more inline with Grant than Jawad, but the key difference is time-frame. Jawad is tactical 6-18 months.

  • RK

    Ralph K.

    6 5 2016 02:14

    0       0

    Great conversation! Grant had difficulty with volume growth over past years being masked by Dollar strength. Raising rates would increase effect leading to negative #s.

  • A

    Aaron .

    3 5 2016 15:20

    7       1

    Great interview - glad to hear from Jawad finally. I was one of those emails :-) Now, love to see you secure an interview with Brian Wesbury of FirstTrust.

  • SS

    Steven S.

    3 5 2016 12:24

    1       0

    Book; Financial Founding Fathers by Write & Cowen: U.S. became financially strong in 1800 from cheep labor and some resources.. Including protectionist congressional legislation. No inflation please.

  • CC

    Charles C.

    3 5 2016 00:22

    2       0

    While technical factors can move markets for a while, at some point fundamental values matter, or we're not investors. Maybe they won't matter in 12-18 months but they will matter eventually.

  • CC

    Charles C.

    3 5 2016 00:20

    3       0

    Thanks for having Jawad on. It certainly challenges my world view and that is healthy.

  • GW

    Grant W.

    2 5 2016 22:32

    7       0

    Andrea... I noticed after the interview.... could have cried!! Nobody told me. I'm a sucker for those details too :)

    As you'll see in Part Two....

  • AC

    Andrea C.

    2 5 2016 21:32

    1       0

    Sorry... just a sucker for these details... Cut the loose button strings, Grant !

  • mj

    maria j.

    2 5 2016 13:14

    1       0

    The Fed is one and done Please bring him back in Sept

  • mj

    maria j.

    2 5 2016 12:55

    2       0

    If everything is so great then why does Japan have negative rates and the middle class is getting crushed they cant re-leverage because most have low paying jobs

  • GH

    Gloria H.

    2 5 2016 12:34

    3       1

    On what basis does he conclude that the US will begin fiscal spending and growth will normalize? There is NO reason to assume Congrees will emerge from its dysfunction anytime soon.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    1 5 2016 22:08

    1       0

    As in another great recent RV and in the words of Charlie Monger; invert, invert, invert. Excellent curation by R & G for the dichotomy in analysis of the same data. Bravo.

  • SP

    Steve P.

    1 5 2016 21:16

    9       0

    Well done Grant - must have been tough to maintain such a diplomatic questioning approach with some of the suggested bull case arguments. Great interview!!

  • GW

    Grant W.

    1 5 2016 21:12

    24       0

    Thanks for the comments. Jawed is a brilliant guy for whom I have a huge amount of respect. We disagree on a lot of things, but respectful debate is a key part of RV and I loved every second of this

  • DL

    Derek L.

    1 5 2016 19:43

    7       0

    Excellent. Really enjoy RV's commitment to looking at bull/bear views. Avoids the group-think bias.
    IMO Jawad is too sanguine regarding state of world economies/CB's.

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    1 5 2016 14:59

    2       2

    Happy to hear a bull case argued and happier that it's as weak as the rest. Jawad was K'Od on Japan at the 10:30'. Well done Grant. Nuff said. I will only watch Part 2 since it is on the ME region.

  • us

    urska s.

    1 5 2016 12:40

    0       0

    Thanks RV! This is where the sheep and wolves get separated. Who are you? the fact ur reading this....;)

  • BG

    Bruno G.

    1 5 2016 12:16

    4       5

    It's like the lady with the large fungating breast mass metastatic to her bone. And saying well your heart, lungs,kidneys, and vision are great you look good just keep enjoying life everything's good

  • MS

    Michael S.

    1 5 2016 12:01

    7       1

    Wonderfully complex but, Jawad "the king has no clothes"

  • AE

    Alex E.

    1 5 2016 04:00

    3       0

    I'm with Razvan on this one. If what Jian says is true, why are CBs going negative on interest rates? Why r imports crashing? Why is the global economy slowing? I c grief before rainbows and unicorns!

  • AV

    Alvern V.

    30 4 2016 17:43

    12       0

    More Adult diapers ate sold in Japan vs Baby diapers. Good luck with the growth prospects in Japan. Unless Jawad addresses the global declining demographics, trend will continue for slower growth.

  • NS

    Niek S.

    30 4 2016 17:36

    20       1

    Reminds me of something that Soros once said; 'I became an anti-contrarian because everybody was a contrarian'. In the short/medium- term Jawad may possibly be right. Long- term I agree with Grant.

  • BG

    Bruno G.

    30 4 2016 17:09

    14       10

    I found Jawad annoying. Like let's not focus on CB. Here if we focus on this unicorn that can fly and this unicorn that has supernatural abilities in the end events will normalize and rainbows forever

  • AV

    Alvern V.

    30 4 2016 16:15

    8       0

    The referee's in a game should be invisible. These CB's ARE the focus of the game. The CB's are using flawed models and when you use the wrong model, the results will be wrong every single time.

  • FS

    Fred S.

    30 4 2016 14:27

    3       0

    If rates rise to more "normal" levels, won't that hit bank's income statements? Another bail out? How does that affect the bull case?

  • FS

    Fred S.

    30 4 2016 14:27

    2       0

    Jawad looks at historical events as base cases. Banks seem to be setting up for another disintermediation. S&L's in '80's paid high rates to savers and collected low rates from borrowers. ...

  • BV

    Bryan V.

    30 4 2016 13:31

    0       0

    So growth in markets will continue so long as nominal growth exceeds both 10 year yields and credit growth rates. While CBs have increased credit capacity, demand headwinds still persists.

  • nc

    neil c.

    30 4 2016 12:53

    0       0

    Wow

    Ali vs Frazier

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    30 4 2016 12:50

    14       0

    Thank you Real Vision for showing two sides of the story - corporate media only shows the bulls and even though most of us are bears - it is important to listen to the other side. Great interview!

  • GB

    Grant B.

    30 4 2016 10:52

    7       0

    Very good. Insightful views + process. I liked his rate of change in key metrics analytics. Much better than historical analysis of my best trades a la Bronte Capital. I look fwd to Part II.

  • JC

    Justin C.

    30 4 2016 09:55

    4       0

    Excellent. Great to hear a more positive angle on things. Latterly there has been more balance in the range of arguments presented which is good. Successful pessimists are a rare breed!

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    30 4 2016 08:39

    20       0

    Great interview, 95% of the RV
    Experts are bearish, finally a bull case very well argumented. Brilliant Mind by the way. Super Interview.

  • SK

    Stephen K.

    30 4 2016 08:32

    7       0

    Great interview. A major point for me is that your perspective depends on how you weight the myriad indicators, and bull vs bear is highly time dependent.

  • IC

    Iain C.

    30 4 2016 07:58

    13       0

    Excellent. As others have said, Jawad seems to be saying 'not quite yet', but the bull case seems to be that fundamentals can be ignored for a while longer, not that they do not ultimately matter.

  • RA

    Razvan A.

    30 4 2016 03:34

    20       0

    Jawed clearly articulated the bull case for the near future (6-18 mths), but he pointed out scenarios where he would get on the bearish side, and these scenarios don't diverge from Grant's points.

  • RA

    Razvan A.

    30 4 2016 03:28

    27       0

    The discussion has the form of a debate, however it could very well happen that both Jawed and Grant are right, just on a different timeline.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    30 4 2016 01:16

    18       1

    i personally buy more into Grant's line of argument but Jawed made me think. the discussion format "bear vs bull" is thus most helpful to form "better" opinions. tks a lot RVTV.

  • DT

    David T.

    29 4 2016 23:21

    22       0

    Great video. Would love to see more bull vs. bear discussions. Always very valuable to challenge your investment thesis no matter which side you're on.

  • DC

    Dale C.

    29 4 2016 19:40

    6       0

    Central Bank experimentation will have unintended consequences that will shock our world and our heirs will talk about what happened to us for a thousand years.

  • ss

    sid s.

    29 4 2016 19:28

    5       0

    can't wait for part 2.
    Thanks Grant.

  • DG

    Dana G.

    29 4 2016 17:47

    18       0

    How is an environment normal if pension companies are losing a lot money. Retirement is one of the worlds biggest problem. Rates go up or we can't fund retirement: that simple.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    29 4 2016 17:47

    17       0

    Brilliant intellectual debate and I was really intrigued by Jawad's bullish arguments, but I am not persuaded. Grant won the debate hands down for me in this most informative discussion

  • LA

    Linda A.

    29 4 2016 17:05

    8       0

    Great debate! This is not a normal mkt -unprecedented money printing by all CB;'s. When did borrowing become free? How is 0 & neg. rates normal? Isn't China & unemployment data skewed?

  • WE

    William E.

    29 4 2016 16:45

    55       4

    Grant - that shirt button needs attention.

  • JM

    Justin M.

    29 4 2016 15:55

    8       0

    Impressive interview. Thoughtful and well presented.

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    29 4 2016 15:45

    13       0

    Best interview of 2016 so far. Much better to see 2 people disagreeing than agreeing. Well done Graham

  • CC

    Christopher C.

    29 4 2016 15:33

    9       0

    Coherent, cohesive, and compelling thoughts by Jawad, collared by perceived probabilities not mistaken as certainties. Cheekily contrarian. Cheers.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    29 4 2016 14:52

    22       0

    Realvision at its finest. Great interview Jawad gave as good as he took if not better. Safe to say, I will need to watch this a few times before I can form an opinion.