Interview with John Mauldin

Featuring John Mauldin

John Mauldin, Chairman of Mauldin Economics, gives his outlook on U.S. economic growth, shares his views on Japan and talks about the implications of monetary policy across the globe.

Published on
14 July, 2016
Topic
Politics, Global Outlook, Monetary policy
Duration
34 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities
Rating
150

Comments

  • JF

    John F.

    6 10 2016 02:39

    0       1

    1.) Had Mr. Mauldin been reading Forbes Magazine in the 1970's he would know the Japanese have been deliberately weakening their own currency for decades to maintain the flow of exports. 2.) On the returns of the decade: The business cycles are not bound by the calendar year, decade, etc. And, they are not linear. 3.) On Keynesian theory of fiscal stimulus: a.) During deflation the issue is realigning the currencies and lowering raw material costs to sane levels by restricting lending. b.) Fiscal spending during the deflationary1920's, 1950's, & 1980, has never boosted wholesale/producer prices. Not even the Korean War. 4.) Inflation has to be artificially inseminated by fiscal policy, but only in the last ten years of the 30 year commodity cycle after the debt has cleared. We were late in developing that curve when George W. took office. The White House could have picked another purpose for the money, like infrastructure. The net effect would have been the same because it weakened the U.S. dollar, at a time when debt was at a low and now was accelerating rapidly. We have had three and a third complete commodity cycles since 1918 with exquisite detail of economic data since 1948. The actual model is dynamic. A variable performs differently when another variable is in a different position. We will survive this one, too.

  • bb

    buck b.

    28 7 2016 22:02

    1       0

    Best nuggets...Debt=Consumption brought forward
    India as investment
    If you want to make money you need to be uncomfortable

    The rest was cocktail talk. Good work Grant.

  • RP

    Robert P.

    19 7 2016 15:24

    4       4

    There are so many negative comments because mauldin has become a complete blowhard more interested in peddling his own research service and books. His tone was pedantic preachy.

  • DS

    David S.

    18 7 2016 19:09

    1       1

    ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) demonstrates the extraordinary high risk of return perceived in the market. Central bankers set short-term rates. The market sets long-term rates. Why are so many long duration sovereign bonds purchased at negative rates? Why do stock markets tank every time a central bank wants to raise interest rates by O.25 percentage points? When everyone is scared about tomorrow, a negative 1% sovereign bond may be a good investment vis-a-vis adding even more risk to current portfolios.

  • GB

    Grant B.

    18 7 2016 13:29

    6       2

    His comments on politics, Trump/Sanders, are spot on. Not sure why so many dislikes on this one. I have seen much worse. Bronte Capital comes to mind.

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    18 7 2016 02:46

    0       0

    Agree with Pamela T!

  • AV

    Alvern V.

    18 7 2016 00:26

    2       0

    Mauldin "It may work for them".

    Williams "That's a step too far for me".

    CLASSIC!

  • AG

    Alex G.

    17 7 2016 23:09

    1       0

    I wonder if the U.S will print, print and print, monetize their debt and then, they will have a fully functioning treasury market.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    17 7 2016 22:08

    2       12

    I guess the idiots who down voted John are the idiots who down voted me...Who'da thunk it???

  • WM

    William M.

    17 7 2016 18:26

    6       1

    Big fan of John's newsletter. However was a little disappointed by this interview. He wandered quite a bit from questions. Personally I have a huge problem with any suggestion that Pakistan is at an inflection point to anywhere but collapse. Just a decade ago the BRICs were all the rage and the PIGs were all the concern. The PIGs are still the concern, especially Italy, and nothing has been solved there at all. The BRICs are in deep deep problems with the exception of India. India may be at a positive inflection point, but its country full of dissent, dramatic class differences and corrupt bureaucracy. The private sector can rapidly build wealth there, but religious strife and deep poverty present huge challenges.

  • JC

    Juan C.

    17 7 2016 13:49

    6       2

    Interesting how both foreign pundits and Mexicans see Mexico at an inflection point. The difference being the direction. In Mexico it is difficult to have an optimist outlook. Institutions are crumbling before our eyes, while the president and his cronies are stealing all in their path.

    We are one small crisis away from having the Mexican version of Trump in the presidency (Lopez Obrador) with no institutions to keep him in check.

  • B

    Bojo .

    17 7 2016 09:34

    7       1

    I realize it is a subjective comment, but I couldn’t help noticing that one personal characteristic of expert guests who have got somewhat negative or ambivalent response from the listeners is shortage of humility.

  • SJ

    Stephen J.

    17 7 2016 05:57

    6       4

    John seemed tired and disjointed, it was hard to follow him. Pretty much a snoozer. Thanks to Grant for holding things together. Something tells me Grant was close to dozing off as well.

  • DL

    Derek L.

    16 7 2016 22:28

    7       0

    Interesting..."It's cheaper to buy your competition than to compete with them" due to cheap debt. That cannot be good.

  • GH

    Gregory H.

    16 7 2016 20:49

    14       1

    I think John's getting a bad rap here... I've been a reader of his free weekly newsletter for almost five years now, and he does a great job of pointing you to the best minds in the field and letting you sample private research, while also adding his views to the fold... I first learned of Grant's Things that Make You Go Hmm and Real Vision from Mauldin...

  • M

    Mark .

    16 7 2016 19:39

    7       0

    Never ending ZIRP is a horrible policy.

  • PS

    Patrick S.

    16 7 2016 19:27

    8       2

    Love the fact that John has elicited more negative votes than any other interviewees in your history. It speaks loudly to the pedigree of your thoughtful viewers. They are not easily taken in. Keep up the good work Grant and Raoul. Enjoy your summer break. You deserve it.

  • EB

    ELIZABETH B.

    16 7 2016 17:19

    20       3

    The "shop talk" , I gather, was a result of a conference entitled ,"Decade of Disruption: Investing in a Transformed World".

    For me, it was painful to listen to the following:
    Mexico at an inflection point!
    Pakistan cheap!
    India! India! India!
    Platitudes like "Debt is a drag on growth" and "Investment world models are broken".

    Sorry, but I need to know the context and why India, why Mexico, etc. I don't "cotton "to effects, as they say in Dallas. Nothing said was instructive. I was feed an air sandwich during this 30 minute talk, and I came out hungry for knowledge, not TX effects.

  • DS

    DAVID S.

    16 7 2016 10:07

    5       1

    very good!! I love the comments on competition buyout VS growth....how would you guys anticipate & play M&As then

  • AE

    Alex E.

    16 7 2016 05:20

    11       11

    I'd like to know who the idiots who down voted two of the best economic minds around are. Apparently you "brilliant" quants know better? Whatever. "No minds" will vote how they think, if you can call it that.
    I think the Japanese situation deteriorates to the point of implosion as the demographics are getting worrisome unless they implement massive immigration. If they don't, who will pay for all that debt? Hence, kablewee!!
    I look forward to the next Williams/Mauldin interview regardless of who interviews whom...

  • DV

    Daniel V.

    16 7 2016 02:17

    29       0

    Grant can you do an in depth interview with Jeff Gundlach.

  • MM

    MZ M.

    16 7 2016 00:48

    12       2

    "the nuggets of wisdom... 'if you want to make real money you got to be uncomfortable' ". Ditto that! And also the sharing of their "financial world" knowledge and insight is truly fun to hear. I esp enjoyed the comments about Charles Gave and with 'interest rates so low its cheaper to buy your competition than to compete with them' - we all know that can't be good for the future. and lets acknowledge what is said repeatedly now, 'we are actually talking about what was "unthinkable" just ten years ago... "thinking the unthinkable" Wow! I want to restrain myself on the politics, but it worries me that so many have given in to the "vote for X, this person can't do any worse" dynamic. The very fact that USA has candidates that people literally have to guess or "hope" will do "the right thing" is a signpost of how far the electorate and political system has deteriorated, and has also signaled when past great nations were witnessing "the beginning of the end...." Yes I am worried for the future generations - this is the 21st Century damn it, And we're going backwards! But Hey! There's always hope - right?

  • DS

    David S.

    16 7 2016 00:44

    10       0

    Roberta A. I really enjoyed both Hugh and Nouriel's interviews with Raoul. I watched both more than three times and will probably watch them again. Real Vision is trying to give us a wide variety of interviews. Not all of them will appeal to everyone including me. DLS

  • JS

    John S.

    15 7 2016 23:35

    14       0

    As a long term resident of Japan I share Grant's skepticism. Every day I witness the endless squandering of wealth on unproductive projects and nonsense coming from the politicians. There is no hope of the bond market ever returning to a functional state. Pending the discovery of cold fusion I'm sticking with long gold, short Yen and an airline ticket in case they go 'Venezuela'.

  • JS

    Jon S.

    15 7 2016 23:25

    13       1

    Not a fan. John, even with his folksy admission, talks his book. I understand he may feel the need to be guarded, but he holds his cards way too close to the chest for me.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    15 7 2016 22:54

    11       0

    Good job Grant as this was probably your most difficult interview to date for reasons that are probably apparent. Hugh and Nouriel are right up there, but this was a tough one. You are desperately trying to get us what we want, but you are continually back and forth on the line of exerting what little control you have. It's an art form Grant and your skill is duly noted.

  • DS

    David S.

    15 7 2016 22:11

    2       7

    It is good to shake things up, but do not start at the President of the United States - one of the most powerful offices in the world. Both Mr. Trump and Senator Sanders are without practical wisdom that should be a fundamental requirement of the job. There are many Americans who would make a great President, but are unwilling to run through the Circus Maximus of primary campaigning or the paparazzi we call the press.

  • PD

    Philip D.

    15 7 2016 20:21

    11       1

    You got to learn to read between the lines when you watch RVT videos and then do your own homework. Sometimes it's just the nuggets of wisdom that matter to me...such as "if you want to make real money you got to be uncomfortable". Now take something like that and combine/compare with your current thinking pattern & that's where the value is. Just saying :-)

  • SS

    Sam S.

    15 7 2016 17:28

    16       0

    John seemed either tired or maybe enjoying some of grandma's cough syrup. This was more like party time talk between colleagues. I'm just saying. Love you best.

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    15 7 2016 15:49

    23       2

    Didn't get much form this, was hoping for more.

  • PT

    Pamela T.

    15 7 2016 15:47

    56       3

    In polite circles, the American Revolution wasn't popular at the beginning either. Agree with John that the apple cart needs overturning. Middle class is losing hope and that's not an ingredient for growth. We need to stir things up, need term limits to start, career politicians become wealthy and no longer connect with their constituents. We need to shake it up and reconfigure much. Congrats to the Brits for leading the way! Long live Brexit!

  • SB

    Stephen B.

    15 7 2016 15:34

    4       16

    Yet another fascinating interview!

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    15 7 2016 14:39

    6       20

    So good to see you on RVTV John. Yes, please be back. Thanks for your Thoughts From the Frontline. John, great idea. I would really like to see you interviewed, Grant. Finally, wish the two of you would have gone on for longer.

  • us

    urska s.

    15 7 2016 14:01

    9       2

    Sensing a bit of a shift in sentiment of RV guests - is it just me?!