Interview with Martin Armstrong

Featuring Martin Armstrong

Martin Armstrong, President of Armstrong Economics, speaks with Real Vision in a fascinating interview on business cycles, and his outlook on the future of the global economy. Martin looks to history to illustrate the ebb and flow of the business cycle and discusses his forecasts of a sovereign debt crisis, capital flow returning to Asia from the West, a dramatic rise in the U.S. dollar, and the fiscal policy that will be implemented to address these events.

Published on
18 March, 2016
Topic
Investment Framework, Career, Global Outlook
Duration
55 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
78

Comments

  • DS

    David S.

    28 7 2018 19:13

    0       0

    It seems like the European national banks used negative interest rates to build up their reserves, i.e., a wealth tax. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    28 7 2018 19:11

    0       0

    The socialization of the US includes Wall Street, bankers and pensioners as the 'government' tries to save everyone. DLS

  • vp

    vasilis p.

    8 5 2018 20:19

    5       0

    Watching it 2 years later and interest rates, USD & Gold reacted exactly as he said!

  • DS

    Daniel S.

    3 5 2017 17:54

    3       0

    Excellent conversation, pragmatic and clear. Need to bring him back for year end review. Thank you RV.

  • TL

    T L.

    4 4 2017 12:21

    5       0

    bring him back! not as streamlined as many others

  • JH

    Joel H.

    12 1 2017 05:00

    2       0

    Great interview.

  • JF

    John F.

    31 10 2016 15:33

    1       0

    Martin is brilliant because he is a true researcher. His forecast for the correction, gold and the pull-up of the Sp500 concurs with my own. His critics are like Trump in the apprentice: "Think for me or you are fired". They criticize to keep you laying the gift of knowledge at their feet.

  • SG

    Siddharth G.

    14 9 2016 14:54

    1       0

    To all those who are bewildered about a potential US default because "US can just print more money", the other very crucial part of the issue is if someone is willing to buy what you have to sell. If the markets stop bidding for US paper, then no matter what Washington does, it will NOT be able to sell it and borrow money.

  • NI

    Noor I.

    13 6 2016 10:07

    3       3

    I thought he said bonds would crash on his turn date in 2015,75 ? Gold was meant to bottom in 2013 as per his dates now 2017 LOL... The guy makes up stuff as he goes along and is worshiped...

  • TF

    Trey F.

    26 4 2016 02:40

    0       2

    Cannot believe he compares the Mainz Default to a potential US default. How does a Gov default on debt denominated in its domestic currency? It Doesn't.

  • TF

    Trey F.

    25 4 2016 21:04

    1       1

    "We have to normalize rates" "how do you normalize in an economy that barely grows?" "It barely grows because interests rates are so low" Circular reasoning at its finest, Martin. starts at 19:47

  • lm

    laura m.

    8 4 2016 01:02

    3       1

    As an example, he predicted the current December low in gold to the week in his gold report written in 2013. How many analysts you know that have done the same? I recommend The Forecaster film.

  • lm

    laura m.

    8 4 2016 01:00

    3       0

    Interesting comments here. Yes, Martin is not the most coherent commentator, but his track record speaks volumes of the man's understanding of the markets.

  • SB

    Stephen B.

    4 4 2016 10:22

    4       0

    For me, he has the best record of analysis. I could listen to him all day. OK, so he is not the best communicator but so what? Watch CNBC if you prefer silver toungued pundits that haven't a clue.

  • NT

    Norman T.

    29 3 2016 04:07

    2       1

    Those of you evincing confusion, watch again; and again. The cycles are the framework and he will not give a forecast for next month!

  • NT

    Norman T.

    29 3 2016 04:04

    0       0

    At last someone agrees with me that demand drives interest rates and rates drive inflation (he didn't say that, but take a look)

  • SL

    Steven L.

    29 3 2016 02:50

    4       8

    I'm was interested in his viewpoint and happy to watch this piece but I wouldn't vote to see another interview with MA.

  • GM

    Greenlight M.

    28 3 2016 18:30

    0       1

    Interesting view, however; i cannot see long treasury rates go up when the dollar strenghtens (inflow of capital) and when the world is going into depression.

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    27 3 2016 15:19

    6       3

    "Tell us something about your background"
    "We did Telex 50 years ago"
    Poor Raoul, tried to get some concrete stuff from MA, but all he got was incoherent commonplaces. What a wind bag!

  • tb

    todd b.

    25 3 2016 11:30

    5       0

    This is actually one of MA's more coherent interviews, thanks in part to Raoul's interviewing. Really pulled together all MA's ideas; his style and writings take a lot of getting used to.

  • AA

    Alexander A.

    25 3 2016 09:23

    9       1

    Talking about 'unconventional' thinking, it would be great to get Nassim Taleb on the show.

  • KC

    Kendrick C.

    25 3 2016 08:55

    1       0

    When yield goes up because of soveriegn default, i for sure wont dare to put money in stocks, even if they are historically positively correlated.

  • PF

    Peter F.

    24 3 2016 10:01

    8       7

    My first thumbs down for an interview. Someone who answers concise coherent questions with incoherent ramblings compromises this excellent Real Vision programme & does nothing to inspire confidence.

  • S

    Simon .

    21 3 2016 16:52

    1       1

    I understand the need for a framework which predicts the future. Comforting. Complex emergent systems don't lend themselves to such predictions.

  • DG

    Daan G.

    21 3 2016 16:45

    0       1

    @JN: Thanks, I think his analyses based on historical comparisons are interesting. I'm skeptical about his computer's more precise predictions. Good to know this wasn't one.

  • JN

    Jeff N.

    21 3 2016 14:02

    3       0

    @DG: Martin's 2015.75 was not a specific date that the world blows up but a turning point in which the Sovereign Debt Crisis picks up the pace. It also coincides with his War Cycle and others.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    21 3 2016 11:52

    4       1

    Cycles aren't perfect. There are always fluctuations, thus, market crashes can come years sooner or later. Why? Cuz markets are controlled by humans!!! MA may be off somewhat but his calls will happen

  • OD

    Orin D.

    21 3 2016 10:41

    7       5

    Terrible, it was an incoherent ramble. Its great that he is a man of history and everything is cycles but he is all over the place and doesnt have a clear train of thought

  • DG

    Daan G.

    21 3 2016 08:26

    2       0

    As far as I can see, events on this particular date have been underwhelming. Someone disagree? @MT: his dates are based on past turning points and extrapolations somehow based on the number Pi.

  • DG

    Daan G.

    21 3 2016 08:20

    1       1

    @JN: Shouldn't that have startend already at 2015.75, according to his prediction? (See https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/2015-75-the-start-of-sovereign-debt-crisis/)

  • JN

    Jeff N.

    21 3 2016 05:12

    4       0

    ...to the U.S., there will be no other place for capital to go except into U.S. Equities, US$ and gold. Hopefully that helps explain Martin's position.

  • JN

    Jeff N.

    21 3 2016 05:08

    3       0

    Martin believes yields start going up next year because of the Sovereign Debt Crisis and a pension crisis which leads to a loss of confidence in govt. and muni bonds. With capital flows coming ....

  • CD

    Charles D.

    21 3 2016 01:03

    5       0

    What did he say?

  • MT

    MICHAEL T.

    20 3 2016 23:06

    0       2

    So how do his dates work i.e. 2015.75 ?I don't even understand how those are put together.

  • DG

    Daan G.

    20 3 2016 22:41

    1       1

    Throug his historical understanding is very interesting, his more recent predictions seem off. Take his 2015.75 (Oct. 1) sovereign debt big bang. Conditions may be in place, but his timing was wrong.

  • BL

    Barclay L.

    20 3 2016 21:37

    2       0

    Genius or fraudster? Those interested to understand more may want to read this interesting book:
    Not My Grandfather's Wall Street
    available on Amazon.
    Marty character within.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    20 3 2016 19:29

    3       2

    Wow! Very interesting!

  • DG

    Daan G.

    20 3 2016 17:01

    0       0

    So the mechanism does seem possible to me. Not sure if it fully fits the present set of circumstances, though. Here, his vast hist. knowledge does earn him some cred. points, but that's not enough

  • DG

    Daan G.

    20 3 2016 16:51

    3       0

    Once defaults actually start, taxing is already too late. Also possible that political support will be lost before that with wild election outcomes. Would build a massive bubble, of course, as he says

  • DG

    Daan G.

    20 3 2016 16:48

    3       0

    @NF: Not sure. I can see the mechanism. If sovereign debts default, it will be dominos. UST's severely restructured and bank( accounts) up in smoke. Gold as safe haven? Yes. Equities too? Plausible.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    20 3 2016 15:40

    0       1

    Wow.

  • NF

    Nico F.

    20 3 2016 13:51

    2       3

    USTs are the dominant trade compared to equities when you're expecting the economy to become worse. There's a point to be made for gold, but not for equities. This doesn't make sense.

  • NF

    Nico F.

    20 3 2016 13:45

    0       0

    @DG Governments have the power to tax. That's why it makes no sense to pick equities over USTs in an end of the world scenario. Bullish on stocks = bullish on economy *or* CBs.

  • DG

    Daan G.

    20 3 2016 12:40

    1       0

    @Matthew: His view seems that government debt defaults will drive a flight of capital from government debt to the private sector (equity) +$ rising (up to 0.80 to the €) because US gov defaults last.

  • DF

    Dominic F.

    20 3 2016 09:24

    6       0

    I like Martin Armstrong. He studies history, understands markets and governments, but most of all he understands the behaviour of humans beings within these areas.

  • JS

    John S.

    20 3 2016 07:07

    10       1

    I found him to be rambling. So what's the specifics of his framework for analysis? Not impressed.

  • CW

    Christine W.

    20 3 2016 04:56

    0       0

    I appreciate the historical and cyclical view. On gold, what are his reasons for gold falling under 1000 before going higher? Many people seem to think gold falls again but it isnt happening.

  • CT

    Craig T.

    19 3 2016 19:59

    4       0

    Martin's thoughts and historical insights of how governments react to major economic shifts was worth the price of admission. Devalued Roman coins! We are already seeing the beginnings in the EU.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    19 3 2016 18:52

    4       0

    Thanks RV. It's great to learn more. Since entering the finance world I've found 1) a large # of very smart people and 2) an eye opening view on CB's, big banks, and govt BS. Public needs educating...

  • DG

    Daan G.

    19 3 2016 18:41

    5       1

    Here you can find all the resources Armstrong Economics provides to understand his work: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/models/
    Done some reading, but still not sure what to make of it.

  • DG

    Daan G.

    19 3 2016 18:40

    1       1

    This read discusses his work in a balance way. Does remain at the surface, though:

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle

  • DH

    Dale H.

    19 3 2016 18:19

    3       0

    I have not taken notice of Armstrong (sceptical), but rent or buy The Forecaster from Vimeo. Can watch on computer or Apple TV etc. IWhen you buy it ($10)., you get extras. I am now fascinated. Hmmm

  • CM

    Charlie M.

    19 3 2016 18:09

    2       1

    Enjoyed this - only knew a little about Martin. Still have trouble accepting predictive frameworks based on year-based cycles/waves. Humans are still humans, but tech, perspective & behavior change?

  • PB

    Peter B.

    19 3 2016 17:34

    7       0

    My grandfather told me as a child "the more people think your crazy, the more your on the right track" this has proved correct time and time again..consensus is always wrong. BRILLIANT @raoul

  • ML

    Matthew L.

    19 3 2016 17:19

    9       1

    I really don't understand how he reconciles US Stocks and dollar going way up while the world economy goes to hell while US interest rates rise. It doesn't make sense to me.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    19 3 2016 16:58

    3       1

    As to the US wanting to give up reserve currency status...maybe saying it to placate rest of world but i dont believe for a second that US would would want to really doit & give up the huge benefits

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    19 3 2016 16:52

    3       0

    I know nothing about the man, except that he seems to know history very well. That was truly fascinating. The predictions part, I don't think anyone can be certain of zilch. Strong $ very possible.

  • rs

    richard s.

    19 3 2016 16:15

    1       1

    In crises, rules change. Hearing how some rules might be broken like converting bills to 10yr paper is invaluable.. An amazing think piece, worthy of this sire!

  • WM

    Will M.

    19 3 2016 15:55

    3       2

    Martin isn't the most eloquent speaker but his knowledge of financial history and his background as a floor trader makes him a top valuable financial commentator. See www.armstrongeconomics.com

  • JG

    James G.

    19 3 2016 14:20

    8       0

    DOW to double...in real terms ...what would the PE be ? Already profits seem to have peaked and turned

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    19 3 2016 11:43

    6       1

    I don't agree with M.A. ability to predict exact dates with tea leaves from history - do agree business cycle, history repeating, and that govt will do everything to keep ponizi going. Enjoyed.

  • MT

    MICHAEL T.

    19 3 2016 11:02

    15       11

    Pleaded guilty and convicted of fraud, involved with questionable people, says he can predict the future, yet has to sell reports for a living, no doubt he could be wrong yet not a gazillionaire. hmmm

  • NF

    Nico F.

    19 3 2016 10:00

    16       2

    The more things I read from or about Martin Armstrong the more skeptical I become – too many red flags for me. Sorry.

  • DG

    Dendy G.

    19 3 2016 04:17

    7       0

    Awesome been waiting for RV to bring him on

  • ss

    sid s.

    19 3 2016 03:40

    10       0

    wright when you think it doesn't get any better on real vision TV it does. thank you Raul. thank you Grant.

  • WR

    Wayne R.

    19 3 2016 02:50

    18       3

    He is not the best communicator given that he tended to ramble a bit. He never really answered Raoul's question regarding what his framework is and how he comes to his conclusions.

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    19 3 2016 01:06

    8       0

    Great interview. He has a really good knowledge of history and thinks deeply on things. Good to hear an alternative view. I'm a little puzzled on the drivers for Dow doubling. More QE?

  • JT

    Jane T.

    19 3 2016 00:22

    1       0

    Thank you for interviewing Martin. To think he was nearly beaten to death in jail and lost to us. Fleck has commented he is may be a nut... but if Fleck had followed his work on metals...

  • SA

    Scott A.

    18 3 2016 22:32

    6       1

    I would think his bullish Dow is driven by the increasing government control of assets. The feeling / belief that the US equity markets will be the last ones to fall. Hence more and more capital flows

  • BJ

    Brent J.

    18 3 2016 21:49

    16       0

    whether you agree with him or not, you have to respect his intellect and vision. Not to mention what he has been through. Great interview

  • BB

    Brian B.

    18 3 2016 20:28

    22       0

    Martin's body of work cannot be absorbed in 60 mins. The man has unveiled enormous amounts of cyclical order in a very complex world. It spans far from just markets & advances many fields of knowledge

  • DM

    Dennis M.

    18 3 2016 20:23

    12       23

    OK. Had to stop halfway. Not interesting or educational. Like listening to my old Uncle telling stories of old. Love RV but not every interview will soar.

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    18 3 2016 20:21

    4       0

    Raoul / Grant
    Thoughts on his vision for USTs please?

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    18 3 2016 19:53

    1       1

    Vikram, the Forecaster on Amazon is for Region 2, not compatible within USA DVD players. Anyone, Can Region 2 DVD's be played on Apple laptops???

  • AH

    Andy H.

    18 3 2016 19:25

    10       0

    I feel thouraghly dipressed after watching this. Normally I think ok, I can maybe get ahead of the curve but the more I think , the more I feel that we aren't safe in any asset. MA is interesting.

  • BL

    Barclay L.

    18 3 2016 18:11

    15       8

    Interesting anecdotal history vignettes, but bullish the Dow to double and yet bearish govt control of financial system into global reset by 2020? This seems like double-speak. Not crisp or useful.

  • BV

    Bryan V.

    18 3 2016 17:37

    7       0

    I get more from his history lessons and knowledge of markets than his forecasts which is a complexity of if this than that scenarios. I guess that It takes a complex guy to figure out a complex world.

  • DG

    Daan G.

    18 3 2016 17:25

    12       0

    What would drive the Dow to double from here in the next couple of years? Loss of trust in goverment bonds? Surely not earnings, right?

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    18 3 2016 17:12

    11       0

    It made me realise in need to study more history. I thought I knew something. Get him again soon please

  • SC

    Sean C.

    18 3 2016 16:46

    6       0

    I didn't quite understand his forecast. He sees a correction in the Dow to 13000 somewhere and then it doubles with bonds lower and dollar higher?

  • GB

    Grant B.

    18 3 2016 16:31

    5       1

    Wow! Very insightful. Real Vision.

  • LM

    Leland M.

    18 3 2016 15:43

    10       0

    Timetables are dfifficult to predict but he victims aren't and the savers are soon to be slaughtered. NIRP and capital controls are coming and it doesn't seem like there will be anywhere to hide.

  • BM

    B. M.

    18 3 2016 15:17

    14       0

    excellent..historians often make the best economists

  • VS

    Vikram S.

    18 3 2016 15:13

    25       0

    Watch the Forecaster to learn what he's been through...he presents a deep distrust of government for good reason.

  • MS

    Michael S.

    18 3 2016 14:29

    54       6

    Another couple of hours please.