Louis Gave with David Hay

Featuring Louis Gave

Two favorites of Real Vision subscribers get together to exchange ideas as David Hay, CEO of Evergreen Capital, interviews CEO and Co-Founder of Gavekal Dragonomics, Louis-Vincent Gave. In this timely discussion, Louis explains how the Western mindset on China is causing many investors to miss the boat, why the November IMF meeting will be crucial in determining the future of the Renminbi, and how China’s market roulette mentality can lead to extreme economic cycles.

Published on
3 July, 2015
Fund Structure, China, Positioning
33 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit


  • ST

    SAHIL T.

    18 9 2015 20:49

    6       0

    Let's bring him back, please. Interested to hear his thoughts after the recent events which may have caused him to amend his central thesis.

  • AA

    A A.

    23 8 2015 15:49

    6       0

    Will be good to get Louis' perspective in light of latest yuan devaluation on RV TV!

  • DM

    Dennis M.

    21 8 2015 18:16

    4       0

    Hindsight, but thr yuan was devalued. I'd be interest in Louis' comments in light of that move. Does become less bullish?

  • DU

    Don U.

    18 7 2015 00:14

    0       0

    Agreed China will try to present itself as being a worthy SDR currency but that will probably be denied Then what?

  • JW

    John W.

    10 7 2015 23:08

    0       0

    louis clearlylays out the potential for the downturn BUT followupinterview clearly needed to fully evaluate his insight/message...as with any manager, they need to do well in up AND down cycles..

  • JO

    John O.

    10 7 2015 04:47

    4       0

    It's fine to be bullish on China but you have to call a meteoric rise with amateurs and margin a bubble. It's fine to be long Japan equities but you have to mention they are killing the Yen.

  • A

    Aaron .

    10 7 2015 03:03

    1       0

    Will the new controls derail the quest for reserve currency for Remnibi?

  • AK

    Adam K.

    8 7 2015 23:21

    8       0

    Please add a timestamp as to the date these interviews are actually recorded. It seems to me that is a rather relevant piece of info. Other than that, fantastic job by everybody at Real Vision!

  • ET

    Eric T.

    8 7 2015 20:54

    3       1

    China market down over 30%. I think it is safe to say you can't outsmart a communist.

  • FV

    Frank V.

    8 7 2015 01:43

    3       1

    I think eveyone who say the timing on this is wrong are really missing the point. I think the key here is realizing the mentallity of chinese people and the importance of momentum. Good interview.

  • sc

    singyee c.

    8 7 2015 01:00

    4       1

    Louis thinks that the Chinese will keep their markets up at least till Nov this year.
    The stock market has now fallen big time and the authorities "best efforts" have been futile so far. Enough said

  • am

    august m.

    7 7 2015 20:21

    2       2

    China is a Communist regime. Communist regimes fail miserably in trying to manage i their economy. Now they are trying to manipulate their stock prices. No thanks.

  • PR

    Peter R.

    6 7 2015 16:56

    8       0

    Louis is right about the MSCI weighting but how do you choose stock in an opaque market, with dodgy financials, unknown auditors, ridiculous valuations and political meddling. A pin and a monkey maybe

  • TF

    Tom F.

    6 7 2015 14:31

    2       0

    Great ideas and a very different viewpoint on China. Makes you question the 'Bear Thesis' on China and Chinese equities! Very good actionable ideas too. One of the best interviews to date

  • JS

    John S.

    6 7 2015 14:25

    10       2

    This probably wasn't the best time to publish a rah-rah Chinese stock market interview.

    I know you need to spread out releases, bu the timing on this one was bad.

  • GT

    Graham T.

    6 7 2015 09:00

    6       0

    So it's not based on fundamentals just MSCI weighting. mmmm, not sure about that argument. Let's see if Xi can stop the fall first.

  • RW

    Ryan W.

    6 7 2015 03:34

    10       0

    "A Great Leap Forward" interview 37:08

    Raoul: "Of the China Bulls who's selling a product related to China doing well vs the China Bears"

    Sounds like Louis Gave is "Talking the Red Book"

  • sp

    shashwat p.

    6 7 2015 02:48

    7       0

    Everyone talks their book. That is why it is THEIR book...

  • AT

    Ainsley T.

    5 7 2015 18:28

    1       0

    Would love to hear Charle's point of view...

  • AA

    Ali A.

    5 7 2015 13:45

    5       0

    Bit of a "talk your own shop" interview...

  • dd

    darrell d.

    4 7 2015 19:29

    7       0

    Agreed - quick follow up on China stock meltdown would be timely. Great interview.

  • ii

    ida i.

    4 7 2015 14:28

    0       0

    A fund manager with sweet eyes! : )

  • CW

    Christopher W.

    4 7 2015 14:26

    19       0

    Clear, thoughtful, concise commentary. Would love to see a follow-up interview regarding the Chinese stock market crash that seems to have transpired shortly after the taping of this interview.

  • JW

    J W.

    4 7 2015 03:10

    1       1

    Living in japan, I have had. Wrought tune explaining why this time it might be different...Louis nails it in 30 seconds, and fits it well within an overall Asian cultural context.

  • WG

    Wayne G.

    3 7 2015 17:11

    11       0

    Outstanding! I love how you have shown us cogent arguments why the Renminbi will be devalued and now an equally persuasive case on why it will strengthen. Bravo RVTV!

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    3 7 2015 16:57

    26       2

    Wow another knockout discussion from two top investment gurus. I just can't imagine getting so many invaluable insights on China and Japan in a concise half hour anywhere else.