Making Money in Markets Full of Unknowns – Bill Fleckenstein

Featuring Bill Fleckenstein

Renowned short seller and hedge fund industry veteran, Bill Fleckenstein, returns to Real Vision in typically uncompromising style, with a must-see interview and some forthright views on the gold market, the Fed and Trump’s Cabinet nominations. Bill also takes us inside his risk management and investment framework for shorts and the one thing that’s harder than short selling – running a big gold portfolio.

Filmed on January 6, 2017 in Seattle.

Published on
26 January, 2017
Sentiment, Investment Framework, Hedge fund
49 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Commodities


  • SS

    Sean S.

    18 6 2017 05:02

    0       0

    His hair is made of silver!

  • CM

    C M.

    6 3 2017 05:35

    0       0

    Agnico Eagle and Tahoe Resources were also mentioned.

  • JS

    John S.

    12 2 2017 02:42

    1       0

    When Bill and Grant visit we get treated to brillince and humility. Of course, the two combined equal wisdom. Good stuff.

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    10 2 2017 21:38

    0       0

    Absolutely sensational xommentary from Bill. Prob best ever I've seen on RV

  • SR

    Sean R.

    10 2 2017 08:32

    0       0

    Great content. Lots to think about.

  • CY

    C Y.

    10 2 2017 04:05

    0       0

    The idea that they see the problems and that nothing happens is right in line with bull markets. They end when the last guy throws in the towel.

  • DB

    David B.

    5 2 2017 15:44

    0       0

    New Gold, Gold Corp, Panamerican Silver, Tower Resources. Which were the other 2?

  • SC

    Shane C.

    30 1 2017 20:04

    1       0

    A position in gold (to me) is simply an information tool, an outsider view into the market. It works as multifunctional tool as well. People forget the diamond-water paradox it seems. Investing upstream from the metal I believe the excitement is the technology in abstraction. I may be young, but to me thats where you get excited, similar to new refining techniques for graphite and pure carbon.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    30 1 2017 15:46

    2       1

    I totally respect Fleck but what is his call on anything?? He has a good way of talking in hypotheticals....but no beef !

  • MS

    Michael S.

    30 1 2017 12:57

    2       0

    To bill's point I was up 100% in my gold portfolio in August and finished the year up 35% and feel like the dumbest guy on the planet

  • MH

    Marco H.

    30 1 2017 11:28

    0       2

    What a looser. Is even unable to put out a correct forecast on the Australian Open. Other than that: great interview.

  • PS

    Peter S.

    30 1 2017 04:31

    1       0

    His hair really is amazing

  • CM

    Carl M.

    30 1 2017 02:41

    0       0

    ...from those of us that are "stuck"
    Thank You!!!

  • RA

    Robert A.

    28 1 2017 23:51

    2       0

    Timeless. Simply Timeless you two. One thing I think I've learned from Fleck over the years is to safeguard and manage your emotional capital.

  • TB

    Tad B.

    28 1 2017 21:04

    1       0

    Nice one Grant. We get to live vicariously through you…..
    It's fun to watch these.
    He even coughed his PM portfolio :)

  • KE

    Kenan E.

    28 1 2017 18:48

    8       5

    Why do people think Trump is NOT economically illiterate?!?! Because he is a business man?? Well you can run a successful business without knowing ANYTHING about the economy... And I think Trump's protectionist actions and his willingness to micromanage companies directly shows he knows nothing about the economy. So most likely he is the anti establishment guy voted into office just to screw everything up. and after that the Hillaries of the world can do whatever they like to do...

  • TL

    Tom L.

    28 1 2017 04:11

    9       0

    How good is that guys hair!

  • jS

    jurgen S.

    28 1 2017 00:22

    3       0

    Loved the interview but had to have a laugh about the Australian Open predictions given Rafa and the Fed are in the final.

  • GB

    Grant B.

    27 1 2017 20:10

    4       12

    A lot of gold content the last few days for something that is a small percent of investable assets. May be you should have a separate service called Gold Vision TV or Solid Gold TV :)

  • BL

    Bruce L.

    27 1 2017 18:46

    3       0

    it is always psychology. Price changes from positions being changed, caused by people changing their mind.

  • WM

    Will M.

    27 1 2017 14:22

    6       0

    Grant hope you buy Fleck a good dinner since he was right and you were wrong on the Australian Tennis Open ! :)

    Great interview, loved the chemistry. Don't understand some of the negative comments below about Bill's naivety on governments and gold suppression. I am a "bug" and I thought his comments were spot on. Very similar to Martin Armstrong. His emphasis on the amount of money that has sloshed about the planet certainly echo concerns of many, many sober experts. I used to be a deflationist but now I am not so opinionated what will come first, perhaps it will indeed be the "crack-up" boom. Great stuff!

  • AD

    Anton D.

    27 1 2017 11:36

    5       1

    If Gold is a form of insurance, not investment, as stated by other respected RV guests- how do you manage risk on your "insurance policy"? There are no ways to do it with other forms of insurance, so what makes Gold insurance different? Didn't see his point on this, I'm afraid.

  • GR

    Guido R.

    27 1 2017 11:28

    0       0

    ... USA in the West of course and Japan in the East... DOH!!

  • TA

    Tommaso A.

    27 1 2017 08:37

    2       1


  • GR

    Guido R.

    27 1 2017 08:21

    8       4

    Statistically speaking, what are the probabilities that the folks on the Federal Reserve are incompetent idiots?

    What are the probabilities that all members of global central banks are incompetent idiots?

    What are the probabilities that all congresswo/men are idiots?

    Finally, what are the statistical probabilities that countries as disparate as Japan in the West and the USA in the East and everyone else in between, would implement exactly the same economic and monetary policies?

    I am baffled at the dogged insistence by people that, at least arithmetically, should know better, that it is all down to idiocy and incompetence rather than intent.

  • JF

    Jennifer F.

    27 1 2017 07:13

    0       0

    Always like listening to Bill and hid views. Thank You

  • AB

    Aaron B.

    27 1 2017 05:14

    2       0

    I sure hope the RV gold club is right, I am beyond long in Au..enjoyed the interview, seasoned trader sharing well earned insight.

  • JC

    Joe C.

    27 1 2017 04:56

    18       0

    Bill's 2014 interview was singlehandedly the reason I subscribed to RV. He has such clear, easy-to-follow thinking. Wish you guys talked to him once a month!

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    27 1 2017 04:24

    4       0

    A fun interview and informative. Enjoyable to watch the banter about tennis. Really appreciated Fleck's view of people who were pissed as gold and miners dropped from a high. As one who was late for the train there is no choice -if you believe in the gold narrative- but to grin and bear it. So far have made back about a third of my losses. I think this may be a 1 in several hundred years so quibbling about the month or price is silly. Getting the year correct +/1 a few -I believe- is going to look smart.

  • de

    dale e.

    27 1 2017 03:28

    1       0

    Flec is always great and he is right, nobody knows. We just hav to wait and see. Great interview

  • TR

    Thomas R.

    27 1 2017 02:08

    7       0

    Bill is all about managing risk and patience - something I am still such a novice at - and something I always appreciate him re-stating, if only for my benefit. Gold breaks below 1200 these last 2 days and I’m now down for the month as much as I was up just 3 days ago. The pull to "think I’m right" is so prevalent. I forgot to manage my risk and the position I had overnight was way too big. Thanks for the reminder Bill. Live to trade another day. The year is young as our friend Dave Floyd just stated on his interview.

    Many thanks to RV.

  • TP

    Tai P.

    26 1 2017 23:11

    3       0

    Outstanding interview!

  • SP

    Steve P.

    26 1 2017 22:35

    6       1

    You just have to love conversations between these two - so animated and far reaching. Some controversial claims just makes it that much more interesting to watch. And a good degree of humbleness (as all great investors exhibit) tops it all off. Great stuff RV !!

  • AD

    Arvydas D.

    26 1 2017 22:25

    0       0

    Amazing interview, Thank you guys!

  • DS

    David S.

    26 1 2017 21:26

    1       0

    Thoughtful and fun. Everyone loves gold. How much they buy just depends on their bank account and the price.

  • db

    don b.

    26 1 2017 21:20

    9       10

    Fleck you are wrong about Au suppression. Sorry champ. Gibson's Paradox is the playbook since Bob Rubin. 1. Suppress Au 2. Suppress interest rates to zero. 3. Print all the money you want. Every Treasury Secretary since Rubin has been a friend of Rubin's. That you have watched a Au chart for the last 10 years and don't believe that US Treasuries ESF controls markets is naive. If you also believe that there is not collusion between banks/Fed/Treasury you are also naive. I appreciate you and your work but like all of us you are off base on a couple of things.

  • CM

    Catherine M.

    26 1 2017 20:41

    4       0

    Oustanding interview - as always. He is of the most interesting and valuable contributors for sure.

  • dd

    darrell d.

    26 1 2017 20:36

    5       0

    Grant .. you get paid to do this? Sometimes it looks like one hell of a lot of fun.

  • vt

    vadim t.

    26 1 2017 19:34

    0       0

    Great, specially the ausopen part! Didn't know Grant is a tennis fun, good to know! ))

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    26 1 2017 19:13

    10       17

    Governments have no interest in gold. Really? Next you'll tell me criminals have no interest in what law enforcement is up to.

    Governments hate gold the same way a criminal hates a truthful witness and will seek to shut him up ... one way or another. How naive do you have to be to believe otherwise? And yet, the last thing you are is naive, so what's the motivation to make such a claim? Fear of being booted out of "the club" for mentioning the unmentionable?

    You've never struck me as that kind of guy.

  • HA

    Hamed A.

    26 1 2017 18:31

    4       0

    Well done Grant - guys like this are great!

  • SB

    Sam B.

    26 1 2017 17:38

    1       0

    Great nuggets of wisdom on how to be short in a nonsensically bullish equity market

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    26 1 2017 17:01

    18       1

    That was such a fun conversation to watch. Wish it was longer. Great comments regarding the gold market and Trump's cabinet picks.