Market Maverick Eyes ‘Everything Bubble’

Featuring Jesse Felder

Investment maverick & writer of The Felder Report, Jesse Felder shares his concerns about volatility trading and speaks candidly about Twitter wars, his investment framework, and the bubbles he’s watching.

Published on
24 October, 2016
Topic
Volatility, Monetary policy, Sentiment
Duration
63 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Commodities
Rating
20

Comments

  • GB

    Greg B.

    7 6 2017 20:51

    1       0

    This is the first interview I've watched on RV and I already feel like I got my moneys worth. I've been a subscriber of Jesse's for a couple of years now and he's always providing a deeper perspective than what you hear/see in the trading public. Great interview.

  • AM

    Alexander M.

    10 2 2017 20:33

    0       0

    Even more relevant 3 months in. Great stuff.

  • DP

    David P.

    18 11 2016 19:57

    2       0

    Great interview.

  • BB

    Brian B.

    14 11 2016 21:34

    1       0

    Good interview. thank you

  • cc

    chris c.

    4 11 2016 02:28

    0       0

    excellent stuff. Keep up the great work

  • OA

    Orhan A.

    2 11 2016 09:55

    1       0

    I love it how Jesse is able to clearly communicate his message. This interview made me drop a couple of pennies. Thank you RealVision!

  • UB

    USMAN B.

    31 10 2016 16:54

    0       0

    Highly engaging interview, clear and concise.

  • JC

    John C.

    31 10 2016 12:52

    0       0

    Really great interview thanks for that. Needed this after the Rosie interview. Am extremely impressed with this guy and how he looks at markets and trading. Very helpful.

  • GG

    Gregg G.

    31 10 2016 01:48

    0       0

    thank you, Jesse Felder, for suggesting that I tune into this website. great interview. will become a regular viewer.

  • FS

    Fred S.

    30 10 2016 14:17

    3       0

    The everything bubble.. love it. When dollars are worthless - what's the price of money now?.. 0.5% - then everything priced in dollars shoots the moon. Excellent interview! I'm a fan!!

  • PK

    Paul K.

    28 10 2016 07:05

    1       0

    Fantastic job lads

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    27 10 2016 22:16

    0       0

    Great interview. One of the best so far. I particularly liked the comparison between VIX derivatives and '87s portfolio insurance.

  • Pd

    Paul d.

    27 10 2016 21:50

    8       0

    I believe this is the link to the Jason Cummins presention cited by Jessie Felder in the interview.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7W_yiRlvGM
    (starts at 33:10)
    I had to stop the interview and check this one out and I was not disappointed. Finally, an economist (former Fed I believe) talking about the things being discussed on RV: Don't CBs know their policies aren't working? Do they think doing more of what did not work will have a different outcome? Do they know what their ZIRP/NIRP policies are doing to banks, pension funds, and consumption? Do they care? Does the Fed know what is going on in the real world? He covered it all - called it a rant, but it was a breath of fresh air and a great presentation.

  • BL

    Bruce L.

    27 10 2016 09:59

    2       0

    stocks/$ bonds/$ real estate/$ combined at highest valuation ever == the bubble is in the denominator, the currency. Creating currency at will under cover of the deflationary forces out there. When the tide turns it is going to carry away massive amounts of purchasing power.

  • DS

    DAVID S.

    27 10 2016 09:54

    1       0

    Man, yeah watching the tape is an addiction and this is such o relevant insights that you are giving. I like the comment on the tape as I had the same type of issue being a short term trader and a portfolio manager.. Very good interview. thanks RVs

  • BV

    Baptiste V.

    27 10 2016 00:32

    0       0

    Very interesting video. Thank you.
    Could you please point us to the YouTube video Jesse is referring to at 22'54 ?

  • AB

    Andrew B.

    26 10 2016 09:04

    1       0

    Absolutely loved the volatility component of this compelling interview. Worth working through that bit very slowly to ensure you comprehend.

  • CW

    Chad W.

    26 10 2016 05:51

    4       0

    Whew! Excellent. I really needed that after Rosie's interview.

  • SM

    Sam M.

    26 10 2016 02:28

    1       0

    That had to be one of the best ever.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    26 10 2016 02:16

    2       0

    Jesse, can you comment on sentiment
    Remember the "Dow 10,000" baseball caps?
    Mayor Rudi bragging about a market that can only go up.
    Euphoria!
    We are over-valued (slightly) but still in Templeton's skepticism phase.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    25 10 2016 22:04

    4       0

    A real person talking real world on real vision TV. This is the kind of interview I subscribe and wait for-----sweet.

  • GW

    Grant W.

    25 10 2016 14:32

    6       0

    @Matthias B if you click the info icon on the video landing page, you'll see the link to Jesse's site where you can subscribe to his brilliant work

  • JE

    Jag E.

    25 10 2016 13:03

    1       1

    @ ANDREAS H. And cash is printed in absurdum, but could/should be a great trade.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    25 10 2016 12:13

    9       0

    can I ask when this interview was recorded? I make reference to his gold miner comment and that he still sees some excessive bullishness: gold corrected from 1370 to 1246 or so and the GDX by about 30% and over non com CFTC net longs shrunk by 40%. that should have cleaned some weak hands while the market now prices in an almost 70% Dec FED hike. PS: while gold tends to correlate -vely with the $, history shows plenty of +ve correlation but there is no historical stat. significance that a rate hike led to weaker gold prices / stronger $ thereafter. recent example? Fed in Dec '15. similar situation now as it seems.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    25 10 2016 10:46

    5       0

    GREAT interview! i am so glad that Grant asked that question around the 32:40 mark (ticking down) about taking big positions and how to deal with the mental aspect. Since my preferred style is as well gaining conviction and then go large, the mental aspect when it initially goes wrong and the losses pile up is gruelling. I still try to come to terms how long to let a trade run when I have a high conviction about a multi year trend (might by a topic for another RV interview). where can I subs to his newsletter, any link? tks a lot!

  • SR

    Sean R.

    25 10 2016 09:54

    1       0

    Really great stuff, once again.

  • ES

    Edward S.

    25 10 2016 07:32

    4       1

    Can't be buying gold/silver via ETFs for the long term.. The expense ratio is a negative rate.. I suppose it could be offset by option premiuim, something obviously not available for a 'physical' position; yet still. that can be tough at times. TSYs are the same deal, the entire short end is often 'on special' and can be loaned out for 'attractive rates' (higher than repo) - yet ETFs obviously do not pass this thru. Personally, I still wouldn't buy TSY CUSIPs, but I definitely wouldn't buy the ETFs.. part of the "magic" of a 5yr CUSIP is that it rolls down the curve.

    Other than the use of ETFs, this guy is clever. Great interview.

  • SB

    Sam B.

    25 10 2016 01:41

    7       0

    Erik Townsend had a great description of VXX shorting in his interview with Raoul: "I've heard of picking up nickles in front of a steamroller... this is sticking your hand under the steamroller to try and find them".

    Shorting the levered oil ETFs is a positive carry and to me is a way better risk/reward. Much more likely oil goes down and/or remains in contango... there is no way vol doesn't rip and backwardate again at some point soon.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    25 10 2016 01:25

    11       1

    The thing is though, if that big drop comes, it does not matter what stocks you own, they will all go down including gold stocks (look at 2008), so if you really expect this, cash is the only thing that will protect you.

  • DL

    Derek L.

    25 10 2016 00:25

    2       0

    Really excellent. I want to take the class Jesse is teaching,

  • BJ

    Brent J.

    24 10 2016 19:46

    3       0

    Really enjoyed this interview. good stuff.

  • PM

    Philip M.

    24 10 2016 19:42

    2       0

    Best ive seen for a while......fantastic insight....i think i need to watch it a couple of times to cover off some super imformative ideas. Good job!

  • CS

    Chris S.

    24 10 2016 18:51

    2       5

    Jesse's career path and thoughts are impressive. Also he seems a very nice and modest guy. Thanks for that great interview. However, I'm again struggling with the aversion against being short vol. If done smart (not just XIV) and in a modest, risk controlled way, this can be a very profitable strategy. Especially during times of high uncertainty like we have (as implied vol is overpriced). And again on the volume of VIX products: they are all replicated with futures and for every short there is a long. So in a vol spike this will only lead to a redistribution of wealth. Question: from who to whom?

  • LK

    Lisa K.

    24 10 2016 18:33

    10       0

    @ZacharyB https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7W_yiRlvGM at Jason Cummins 38:10 mins in video.

  • CS

    Connor S.

    24 10 2016 17:18

    0       5

    Hmmmmm...

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    24 10 2016 16:27

    1       0

    Thomas GNMA 10's at a discount were here when the bond market was cheap.
    That will be when they get my money again!

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    24 10 2016 16:25

    13       0

    Very good!
    Like his thoughts about cent banks and gold.
    Keep up the good work Grant!!!

  • rr

    rlw r.

    24 10 2016 15:57

    9       0

    Felder Report & Real Vision have been my best trades this past year. Excellent chat guys.

  • ZB

    Zachary B.

    24 10 2016 15:54

    0       0

    A YouTube video from Jason Cummins was referenced in the interview. Anyone have a link?

  • GR

    Gregory R.

    24 10 2016 14:42

    1       0

    Wonderful discussion. Could it be that most have lost confidence in central bankers but they still believe that everyone else has not?

  • TS

    Thomas S.

    24 10 2016 14:41

    1       3

    Great interview! My only question is are bonds really overvalued if there is massive money printing ahead? My view is that we already have stagflation but they lie about the data. Seems like if the Fed raises rates in December as some kind of credibility play that buying bonds with both hands is picking of the money laying on the floor

  • RI

    R I.

    24 10 2016 14:16

    5       0

    Thanks to Real Vision for having Jesse on. Greatly appreciated his perspective. However, I wish he would further explain why he is against a vol allocation despite making a reasonable case for it. Position sizing accordingly in vol seems advisable since (in his words) its rise is inevitable, especially in light of ted spread movements and general complacency. Sure, vol doesn't have a balance sheet to examine like his gold miners, but even from a value investing perspective, the discount rate applied to future expected returns from an investment in vol should make it worthwhile, such that perfect timing is not a priority. An extended period of minimum vol should make a mere day's worth of maximum vol well worth any depreciation in the midterm.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    24 10 2016 13:59

    7       0

    Invaluable insights from a highly successful investor made all the more enjoyable by the discussion between Jesse and Grant on the best investment opportunities currently. Thank you