Market Risk & The “All-Terrain” Portfolio

Published on
November 6th, 2019
Duration
41 minutes

Market Risk & The “All-Terrain” Portfolio

Tony Greer Interviews ·
Featuring Vitaliy Katsenelson

Published on: November 6th, 2019 • Duration: 41 minutes

For more than a decade, The Fed has “groomed the slopes” of financial markets — but what will happen to markets when conditions on the ground melt away? Tony Greer sits down with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO & CIO of Investment Management Associates, to unpack the risks and opportunities. The pair get specific about how they are constructing multi-asset portfolios today and discuss the broader strategies that investors can apply during times of rising uncertainty. Filmed on October 16, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • PV
    P V.
    13 November 2019 @ 08:24
    Vitalik is grossly misinformed as BTC is NOT banned in SKorea and, in fact, the country hosts some of the largest exchanges. Perhaps some more accurate research would be in order from someone that praise himself of being "data driven"
  • WB
    William B.
    13 November 2019 @ 03:31
    I just read the other comments regarding bitcoin. Are you bitcoiners aware that China is no longer accepting cash or credit cards? Only phone payments. Try going to China and using bitcoin and let me know what happens.
    • PV
      P V.
      13 November 2019 @ 08:20
      Simply not true. Both cash & cards are used aand represent approx 50% of total payment system
  • WB
    William B.
    12 November 2019 @ 20:48
    Very smart, common sense guy whose ideas ring true to me. He thought about his ideas and articulated them well using analogies. Interesting conclusion about Tesla: he thought about it and decided that he couldn't predict the future of Tesla; to me, that's very intelligent. I appreciate the pace of the interview: not too fast or too slow.
  • TH
    Tomas H.
    8 November 2019 @ 09:35
    "Will the governments allow it" is a stupid question. Of course they won't. Do I care? No. Why? Bitcoin is unconfiscatable if stored properly. I am 95% done exiting this FIAT bullshit idiocy. When I'm 100% done, I couldn't care less. What you have to ask yourself as a FULLY SOVEREIGN individual THEN is simply - where do they treat me best? I'm willing to bet ALL of my bitcoin on the following premise: There's NO WAY on Earth that ALL governments of EVERY country in the world is going to coordinate, not to mention to coordinate efficiently to ban/stop/whatever bitcoin. They can't stop it, they can't regulate it. They've been trying for 10 years and they've been failing miserably. With the advent of govts pushing for cashless society you will not have a place to run to. Except bitcoin.
    • JM
      John M.
      8 November 2019 @ 18:47
      You are absolutely right but do you really want to live in Zimbabwe?
    • JC
      Jason C.
      8 November 2019 @ 20:53
      @John M. If Zimbabwe were the only country left that didn't outlaw Bitcoin as you suggest, then that would likely cause significant changes to the country as BTC alters the composition of the population and the economy. Those changes could obviously make it a worse place to live, but Bitcoin advocates would argue otherwise.
  • SP
    Stephen P.
    8 November 2019 @ 09:09
    I kept hoping for more. Would be interesting to sit with him over drinks, but a lot of known arguments here. What are the new ideas?
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      14 November 2019 @ 01:40
      I enjoyed the discussion on Tesla. I was thinking similarly, and this crystallised my thoughts. Just a bit of luck and the fraudster will be proven a visionary. No real talk of Japanese car companies across the motor vehicle industry discussions, Toyota is really pushing the hybrid to overcome EV limitations.
  • AK
    Ado K.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:58
    I think the critic against Bitcoin that Vitaly brings forward is both quite uneducated, and I do not use this word lightly, outright stupid. You should have basis points in the best performing asset class over the last ten years? But you should have a big stake in medical companies whos entire business model is based on paying regulators to get patents and then scam the general consumer upon receiving the patent? I get it, it takes a lot of time to read and understand why there will never be a "new bitcoin", but if you have not put in the time why not answer with "I do not quite understand the crypto space" rather then to bash something that you at best have lackluster knowledge within. Finally Bitcoin does not really care if governments do not like it or ban it, it is a global, censorship resistant and neutral protocol, anyone can use it. Vitaly, stay in the stock market, I wish you all the luck in the world, you are going to need it brother. I am just fine staying 100 % in black jack money!
    • JM
      John M.
      8 November 2019 @ 18:50
      Bitcoin may continue to be a great speculation but 100%? That sounds more like a religion than an investment.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    7 November 2019 @ 15:01
    This guy doesnt know what resources are need to create an electric cars need. He actually says less resources are need to create an electric car. He even says that electric car is environmental friendly. Correction it has been tested on German grid and you need to drive 100k km for it be start being environmental friendly. Ups. Volvo XC90 only give warranty on batteries to 100k km and after which they need to be replaced. Try asking them if they have a plan to recycle those. They will look at you like an idiot. So no it will be shipped to Malaysia just like most “recycled” plastic from EU.
    • VK
      Vitaliy K. | Contributor
      8 November 2019 @ 03:14
      I don't think this is a fair characterization of my views on the environmental friendliness of Tesla. I wrote about it here https://contrarianedge.com/are-electric-cars-good-for-the-environment/
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    7 November 2019 @ 14:54
    incorrect Silver priced is not set by demand and supply but Comex which has 3 times more paper silver then actually silver. Gold has no price to carry in EU due to negative interest rates.
  • JF
    Jarrod F.
    7 November 2019 @ 10:34
    Loved this interview. Pleasure to hear some common sense.
    • MF
      Michael F.
      7 November 2019 @ 23:16
      Agreed! The view that bitcoin is only for gambling money is right on! It is the latest novel tulip and next month or next year somebody will come up with a better crypo currency and off it will go and bitcoin will drop like a rock. The thought on EV's (electric vehicles) and the rise of smart phones is fascinating. I'm not sure if it is actionable but it makes me think! Thanks!
  • IK
    Ian K.
    7 November 2019 @ 06:23
    Good interview and a very interesting perspective on investing. However, the cryptocurrency part was pretty weak, which is okay as it's not his focus. Based on the comments I not sure he understands what Web3 is and how Bitcoin functions at this level.
  • JL
    James L.
    7 November 2019 @ 04:07
    Someone finally vocalizes the argument that while Bitcoin might be finite, the number of Bitcoin-like currencies is unlimited!
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      7 November 2019 @ 13:22
      The smartest devs in the industry work on Bitcoin, not the s***coins though, and the former is where some of the most interesting work atracting the cream of the intellectual capital is taking place. I would encourage you to investigate the Lightning Network, by way of example.
    • PG
      Petter G.
      7 November 2019 @ 18:29
      Finally? It's one of the most common arguments against Bitcoin. It's also one of the weakest.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      8 November 2019 @ 18:35
      Love the way my first comment has attracted 2 thumbs down from the haters, yet neither of them tried to refute it.
  • CM
    Chris M.
    7 November 2019 @ 03:14
    Excellent interview. As far as electric cars, my only issue is long distance driving (my second home is 8 hours away). When the fast charging stations become more common, then I can see getting an electric car. For my wife, she can live with one today as she only drives locally.
    • FB
      Frank B.
      7 November 2019 @ 03:48
      I would LOVE to own an electric vehicle. On top of distance, these EVs are rolling fire bombs.
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    7 November 2019 @ 02:30
    Really enjoyed this interview. Regarding the commentary on Bitcoin, re. "Will Governments allow Bitcoin to happen?", I'm going to quote Raoul from his Marty Bent podcast interview, when he flipped this on its head by asking "Will Bitcoin allow Governments to happen?" I guess we'll find out in the next decade. One thing I do know is that if my need to use it becomes a matter of financial survival, for me this will supercede any future illegality. After all, there are only so many Gold Sovereigns I might consider attempting to shove up my rectal passage in extremis (and believe me, I really hope I never have to go there)...
    • TH
      Tomas H.
      8 November 2019 @ 09:42
      "Will Bitcoin allow Governments to happen?" - excellent. You see, governments live off of stealing from people through taxes and inflation. Bitcoin is the antidote to both. Inflation for the obvious reasons and taxation - well, how on Earth are you going to tax me when bitcoin is pretty much unconfiscatable?
  • DW
    Dean W.
    7 November 2019 @ 01:38
    Good interview, I like the analogy of the electric car to the early iPhone. There’s probably an electric car in my future, provided that it can tow my boat as well as my GX460 can.
  • GT
    Greg T.
    6 November 2019 @ 20:42
    What is his performance record? This should on the page of every interview. I bet not good.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      7 November 2019 @ 00:38
      I couldn't disagree with you more
    • PB
      Paul B.
      7 November 2019 @ 01:39
      Are you going to troll every video like YouTube or Twitter?
    • GT
      Greg T.
      7 November 2019 @ 20:34
      Paul it’s not trolling if it’s true. Add some value or move on.
  • AT
    Andrea T.
    6 November 2019 @ 19:16
    Cryptos are gambling money, but at the same time fiat money are there just because they allow politicians to break promises and make countries bankrupt. And also bitcoin is uncorruptible, and still it is a gamble. And it's OK to bet on cryptos in Zimbabwe, but yet 2008, the dotcom bubble, the rise of populists all around the world don't matter. Fine.
  • DD
    Dmitry D.
    6 November 2019 @ 14:42
    Hard to take someone who advocated buying Softbank (about a year ago) seriously, so this one is a pass for me
    • VK
      Vitaliy K. | Contributor
      6 November 2019 @ 16:00
      This is why we bought Softbank and why we sold it https://contrarianedge.com/why-we-sold-softbank/
    • KA
      Kevin A.
      6 November 2019 @ 18:21
      Guess you bat 1.00. I thought that it was a very insightful and wide-ranging interview. His analogies are fantastic.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    6 November 2019 @ 13:48
    That was superb, Tony! Thank you for finding and bringing Vitaly to RV. Super smart guy and fantastic analogies. Deep thinker. Please bring him back soon.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 November 2019 @ 15:14
      Thanks Jesse - He does good work.
  • GD
    Ghassen D.
    6 November 2019 @ 11:35
    few coments here : if Vitaly believes in electric cars, he should maybe believe on the long term prospect for copper. what are his thought on mobility as a service as a threat to the electric cars manufacturers profitability and even business model ? You also have some very high quality miners for the indusrial metals if you broaden your investment horizon outside the US... Gold have no cashflow valuations but gold streamers and miners have, don’t get those Buffet style investors mindset towards gold ...
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    6 November 2019 @ 11:10
    Great interview!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 November 2019 @ 15:14
      Thank you Clifford.
  • PD
    Pat D.
    6 November 2019 @ 11:03
    Absolutely loved Vitaliy!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      6 November 2019 @ 15:14
      Thanks Pat.
  • BJ
    Bob J.
    6 November 2019 @ 09:48
    Hard to understand his accent :(
    • JL
      J L.
      6 November 2019 @ 14:30
      there's much worse out there have some mercy on us :)
    • KA
      Kevin A.
      6 November 2019 @ 18:23
      Turn on the sub-titles if you can’t understand him. I had no problem understanding him. I prefer to focus on the substance of a speaker. They have plenty of slick willies on RV who have a silver tongue and pedal stuff I wouldn’t touch.
  • AW
    Andrew W.
    6 November 2019 @ 08:33
    Vitaliy doesn't understand that central bank and govt hate for BTC will not be its headwind, but rather its tailwind.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      6 November 2019 @ 12:18
      I'll take the other side of that bet. It may be true for a few completely unregulated 3rd world contries but for the western world? If any government puts a fine or tax on using bitcoin it is dead.
    • AW
      Andrew W.
      6 November 2019 @ 12:32
      Daniel, the whole point of BTC is that gov't doesn't get a say in the matter. Tax, fine, illegality -- none of these interfere with my ability to procure, hold, and spend BTC. Same story with gold 1933-1974 in USA. If BTC is banned in USA, the macro condition would probably be bad enough that I'd be glad to have some wealth stored in it. It will always be legal somewhere so the on-ramps and off-ramps will always be there.
    • AW
      Andrew W.
      6 November 2019 @ 12:34
      Case in point: China banned the exchanges domestically yet the Chinese bought more.
    • KS
      Karen S.
      6 November 2019 @ 14:27
      the rich don't get rich by following rules
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      9 November 2019 @ 13:13
      Andrew.. They won't take BTC in a federal prison even for a candy bar.