Nightmare Scenario Building in Europe

Published on
October 5th, 2016
Topic
Macro, Global Outlook, Volatility
Duration
36 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit

Nightmare Scenario Building in Europe

The Interview ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: October 5th, 2016 • Duration: 36 minutes • Asset Class: Equities, Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit • Topic: Macro, Global Outlook, Volatility

Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal outlines the potential endgame for Europe's banks, with a special global update from Grand Cayman, questioning the Fed's relevance and deeper troubles at the BoJ.

Comments

  • MS
    Mark S.
    5 October 2016 @ 14:02
    Excellent discussion and summary of where we are now. My two big takeaways: 1) Pay attention to the time horizon when listening to any macro discussion; 2) Keep a sharp eye out for signs of the next recession as that will be the triggering event.
  • LV
    Luís V.
    5 October 2016 @ 15:05
    Nice interview. Loved the personal touch put through the arguments made by Raoul. Excellent ideas and correlations. A bit soft on the KBass vs. HHendry opposing yuan views. Nothing wrong to disagree. That could be the RV tv motto, right? Congrats to ETownsend too.
  • EK
    Emil K.
    5 October 2016 @ 15:22
    I would like to recommend to anyone who has not listened to the MacroVoices podcast to give it a try. It is professional, educational, informative. Comes out once a week with a feature guest as well as thoughts from Eric (the interviewer you see in this video). Great guests, great content, informative good stuff. Give it a shot, I doubt you will be disappointed: http://www.macrovoices.com/
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    5 October 2016 @ 15:29
    I understand everyone at RealTV is bullish bonds - fair enough. You may want to consider the following: 1.) IF oil is near current spot of 49 in January, CPI will almost double in January due to base effects 2. Medicare inflation is multiples above CPI, wages are rising with JPM, SBUX increases happening this month 3. IF Donald Trump is elected as president, bonds will break down. Price, not yield The starting conditions in bonds are: 1. EVERYONE is bullish, EVERYONE is long, NO-ONE is old enough to have seen a bond bear market, DURATION is highest I can remember ever, EVERYONE thinks its about the FED. I suspect we can start ignoring them as their creditibility approaches zero. Maybe long bonds is the ultimate pennies in front of trains position.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    5 October 2016 @ 15:34
    Was just thinking this morning I would like to hear something up to date from Raoul and voila. Thanks
  • MC
    Matthew C.
    5 October 2016 @ 16:15
    Great interview with some good explanations behind the topics. Would love to see more educational type videos from RV - so here is a suggestion Raoul - Kyle thinks the Yuan deval is inevitable and will be carnage, HH thinks the carnage would be too much - so at least they both agree on the carnage part, maybe you could explain how that carnage is likely to play out ??
  • BF
    Bruce F.
    5 October 2016 @ 16:18
    Brilliant
  • B
    Bojo .
    5 October 2016 @ 16:39
    Brilliant, Raoul, as always. Here in Brussels, the Commission and everybody still want ''more Europe'', and we had hundreds of meetings to put bail-in rules together. But probably now national politicians will go local, and the EU will be increasingly...ignored. At any rate, after a certain point, things start to take a life of their own.
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    5 October 2016 @ 16:46
    Thx Raoul!
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    5 October 2016 @ 17:17
    This discussion was a real boost given the mixed impressions of recent interviews. Raoul, you are the Man! Grant too of course!!
  • JM
    James M.
    5 October 2016 @ 20:09
    Excellent delivery of his well explained point of view as always. I rate Raoul Pal in the same category as Jeremy Grantham. Be good to see an interview with them both. Any chance RV?
  • M
    Mark .
    5 October 2016 @ 20:34
    Wonderful. I am an average guy that barely got a finance degree at an easy college and I am getting this stuff. Excellent.
  • IJ
    Ian J.
    5 October 2016 @ 21:05
    The European banking issue has little to do with DOJ fines. After the 2011/2012 European banking crisis, banks, with the blessing of regulators no doubt, papered over their gaping balance sheet holes by tweaking RWA models. They kicked the can hoping that the Global Economy and Eurodollar wholesale banking system would recover to the pre-08 baseline. The bill is coming due
  • MR
    Mark R.
    5 October 2016 @ 21:41
    interesting times out there for the macro investor for sure, wacky world makes for interesting mkt moves
  • tW
    tgwtom W.
    5 October 2016 @ 23:51
    Great to see Erik aboard.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    6 October 2016 @ 00:53
    Great interview! One question I have Raoul - do you not think that Central Banks around the world are coordinating various 'actions' aimed at keeping asset prices (via controlling the USD) within the narrow bands you mentioned? After all its in all their global interests to keep everything as stable as possible so why can they not just keep doing the same for years and years?
  • js
    jacob s.
    6 October 2016 @ 02:41
    Could you provide us with a subscriber growth rate?
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    6 October 2016 @ 02:54
    I second EMIL K's comment about Macrovoices. Probably one of the best free Macro interview resources on the internet. The research roundup email they publish to subscribers each week is also extremely worthwhile. Many thanks to Erik, Nathan and Aaron for their hard work in putting all this together.
  • SS
    Sean S.
    6 October 2016 @ 03:11
    Whoa Erik showed up! Thank you both for the tremendous education you provide.
  • JH
    Joel H.
    6 October 2016 @ 05:20
    Really enjoyed this, great info.
  • JH
    John H.
    6 October 2016 @ 05:52
    so glad to hear about the change in correlation for USD and Au. Bob Hoye is the only other guy who talks about it, USD bull AND Au bull. This week's takedown in gold seems a bit manufactured. backing up the truck soon...
  • RP
    Ron P.
    6 October 2016 @ 06:46
    Brilliant!
  • JS
    John S.
    6 October 2016 @ 09:52
    Interesting interview good job Erik and Rahul. Australian gold miners could be a leveraged play on long dollar and gold?
  • kv
    keith v.
    6 October 2016 @ 10:24
    Great to see Erik on Realvision on an all encompassing episode.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    6 October 2016 @ 10:35
    I thought that the explanations on the Eur$ mkt and vola trade by pension schemes were worth the subs fee alone. this is what RVTv is so great about - not bruuhhaying short term trade ideas but provid
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    6 October 2016 @ 10:37
    provide explanations why the macro world appears so whacky. any chance to interview an expert familiar with the gold lease and rehypothecation market? tks!
  • EL
    Elizabeth L.
    6 October 2016 @ 16:33
    I find it quite valuable that RV does pieces that respond to the current market when big events, i.e. Brett and now the banks as DB are potentially causing major market shifts. Raoul would be great to have this interview with Erik as a quarterly event. Or as a piece done in response to major market events. By the way, I am learning from you and Grant in ways I can't even imagine other sources making available.
  • RM
    Roberto M.
    6 October 2016 @ 19:43
    Awesome, more commentary like this is very appreciated. Great to hear more from you and Grant not just interviewees!
  • LP
    Lari P.
    6 October 2016 @ 20:59
    'DB big derivative exposure' is just the headline number. It is important to remember that the EUR46Tn number quoted in the media is the gross notional derivative exposure, which is by no means a reflection of the credit and market risk the bank is running. You have to look at the present value of future cash flows owned to DB in order to gauge how much credit risk the bank is running. Also, there is a netting and collateral impact as well that should be taken into account, i.e. ISDA agreements that allow netting in the OTC space plus CSA agreement that govern collateral exchange. DB is saying that the net derivate exposure is around EUR41bn (less than 0.1% of the headline number...) Finally, the net exposure is further reduced via active exposure management, i.e. the bank hedges its net open exposure in the market by entering into offsetting trades with other market participants.
  • TS
    Todd S.
    7 October 2016 @ 00:35
    Excellent job Erik, Raul - Appreciate the insight.
  • jm
    jim m.
    7 October 2016 @ 01:53
    Raoul i am most interested in the US dollar. your view is that due to recession, 10 T US dollar corporate EM exposure, that US dollar goes up. Up against which currencies? The US dollar remains very strong again st Rupee, Rupia, Peso, Real, Ruble but in my view, weak against yen, euro, aussie, kiwi. it would be helpful to me/us for you to be specific about the currencies you are referencing when you discuss us dollar. thanks for the thoughtful approach to macro. i recommend you bring back more frequently, burbank, bass. try to get druckenmiller, grantham, john hussman.
  • JD
    Josh D.
    7 October 2016 @ 02:01
    I like short oil long gold even better than long dollar long gold
  • XZ
    Xriva Z.
    7 October 2016 @ 02:46
    Great interview, and great to see Erik of MacroVoices Podcast fame !
  • DS
    Dustin S.
    7 October 2016 @ 09:24
    Very good interview. Raoul explains things in a very concise, understandable way. However, I can't resist chiming in on DB. One of the other posters highlighted the difference between gross and net derivatives exposure. While he is right that many of the contracts do offset, each netted derivative requires DB to assume the credit risk from 2 different counterparties. Because of this, the total gross notional ABSOLUTELY matters. Derivatives still carry credit risk and if even a small amount of the exposure faces poor quality creditors it can create a major problem. Unfortunately for DB the derivatives book is only one of many major issues. They are also much more exposed to Level 3 assets than their peers. They haven't completed any meaningful restructuring. They have 3 major fines to pay (RMBS, Russia, FX). They are trying to sell Postbank which no one wants to buy. They have sold Hua Xia, but can't get the money out of China. They have a capital shortfall of 9.5 billion with a very low market cap. And to top it off, they make very little money and deliver investors very low ROE. This one isn't going to be "OK".
  • JH
    Joe H.
    7 October 2016 @ 09:40
    Great interview. One question about rates over the next few years....if the 10 year US treasury ratedoes go down which seems likely, could libor rates go up because of the dollar shortages mentioned?
  • EB
    ELIZABETH B.
    7 October 2016 @ 09:51
    I really want a printed copy of this interview. Why only an audio download?
  • SS
    Sam S.
    7 October 2016 @ 16:28
    R Pal-----nobody does it better-------How's the weather in Cayman Islands? All the Best!
  • SD
    Sebastien D.
    7 October 2016 @ 17:02
    Just to support Erik as an interviewer, great voice and he know how to listen answers.
  • ET
    Erik T.
    7 October 2016 @ 18:03
    Thanks so much to all the kind people who have said they enjoyed my participation (as interviewer) in this video. Raoul's brilliance is a tough act to follow, so I'm quite flattered that so many of you mentioned my participation in your comments. FYI, Raoul is just as fascinating to get to know personally as he is when talking macro. It remains to be seen how much more additional opportunity I'll be given to do interviews for RVTV, but I promise that to whatever extent I have any influence, I'll try to get Raoul on the screen more frequently! -Erik Townsend
  • LB
    Lloyd B.
    7 October 2016 @ 18:38
    Great interview! Awesome to get a follow up on an also great Macro Voices interview with Raoul. Really happy to see Erik on here!
  • JB
    Jose B.
    7 October 2016 @ 21:53
    Great Interview, Raoul is definitely a StockMarket Jedi
  • JE
    Joseph E.
    8 October 2016 @ 02:23
    Townsend did a great job.
  • GS
    Greg S.
    8 October 2016 @ 02:49
    Good to see Raoul the other side of the interview. He holds up as well as those he interviews.
  • SM
    Sam M.
    8 October 2016 @ 14:55
    Out of everyone we've seen I still like to hear from Raoul the most!
  • BJ
    Bruce J.
    8 October 2016 @ 16:17
    Bruce J. Excellent job on both sides of the interview.
  • FW
    Francis W.
    8 October 2016 @ 17:54
    Raoul always great, and outstanding work by Eric, asking every question I wanted the answer to.
  • JM
    Judith M.
    9 October 2016 @ 03:32
    Clarity, coherence, warmth and affability. Great interviewee and interviewer. Thank you for taking the occasional step back to explain concepts.
  • AL
    Andrew L.
    9 October 2016 @ 21:41
    Great interview, would love to see more of Eric Townsend, big fan of his podcast especially his coverage of the oil market.
  • RB
    Ros B.
    10 October 2016 @ 21:47
    My two favs who help cement ideas. We've sold a business so funds to invest and they both feel a part of our journey into a new world. Go MacroVoices and Real Vision.
  • EM
    Elvijs M.
    11 October 2016 @ 12:04
    Wow, Eric and Raoul on the same screen, great job RVTV!
  • mE
    magnus E.
    11 October 2016 @ 12:44
    LOVE IT
  • KV
    Kuba V.
    11 October 2016 @ 17:58
    Raoul was brilliant like always, and great work from Erik ;-)
  • MC
    Michael C.
    12 October 2016 @ 03:39
    One of the best so far. the questions and answers were dealt with brilliantly. Came away quite scared (seems to be a pattern on RV).
  • CS
    Chris S.
    12 October 2016 @ 19:50
    On the short VIX future volume issue: for every short position there is a long position. what matters is, who is massively short and who is massively long?
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    13 October 2016 @ 19:47
    So enjoyable and informative, thank you
  • JC
    John C.
    15 October 2016 @ 06:21
    Great interview thanks Raoul!
  • AD
    Anthony D.
    16 October 2016 @ 14:32
    Raoul. Thank you again for your insights. As I heard you talk of simply holding your dollars as cash in a bank, I wondered how you might protect this asset. Do you use a custodial account?
  • PJ
    Piotr J.
    19 October 2016 @ 23:51
    Fantastic interview! Unfortunately I have my current account in DB. Does somebody know a German bank that will be the least affected by the next EU banking crisis?
  • WS
    Wm S.
    21 October 2016 @ 02:50
    More, much more Erik Townsend please. I was a Macro Voices listener and then RVTV showed up. Both are must-listen things for me. Congratulations to both for producing worthwhile stuff. I hope Mr. Townsend finds a place at RVTV, and vice versa..
  • DS
    David S.
    21 October 2016 @ 18:02
    From a layman's point of view, it seems to me that most of the increase in the money supply ended up in financial institutions, pension funds etc. These funds plus governments and additional leverage are focused on investing in financial assets not consumption. The major inflation that everyone is looking can be seen in the price of financial assets. The current high p/e ratios merely reflect far to much money chasing a reducing number of financial assets. When risk is not merely measured by the VIX, but with the probability of the loss of capital, p/e ratio should revert to the mean and the market will correct. Of course there are many other reasons that the market will correct. This is just one piece of the puzzle. Who knows how many other shores are ready to fall.
  • DY
    Damian Y.
    5 January 2017 @ 12:46
    Two of the best finance programs. Real Vision and Macro Voices. Thank you both for a great interview.

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