Robotics Successes and VC Madness

Published on
March 15th, 2019
Topic
Technology, Valuation
Duration
60 minutes

Robotics Successes and VC Madness

The Interview ·
Featuring Josh Wolfe and Michael Green

Published on: March 15th, 2019 • Duration: 60 minutes • Topic: Technology, Valuation

In his much-anticipated return to Real Vision, Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner of Lux Capital, sits down with Michael Green of Thiel Macro. Wolfe explains what he learned from his highly successful investment in Auris Health, which was recently acquired by Johnson & Johnson. The two also talk at length about problems in the VC world surrounding information, and the reasons why many private companies could now be overvalued. Filmed on February 27, 2019 in New York.

Comments

  • RM
    Rob M.
    20 March 2019 @ 00:34
    Great. Josh one of a handful of VCs with a perspective beyond spray & pray.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    19 March 2019 @ 09:42
    Great interview, this is why I subscribe.
  • SF
    Simon F.
    19 March 2019 @ 07:51
    This kind of deep dive conversation, by two who live at these depths, informs our understanding of what is the real signal. That is what makes RV great. Embedded in this conversation is the reason why, by contrast IMHO, most of the Trade Ideas are speculative and potentially dangerous noise.
  • AJ
    Aditya J.
    18 March 2019 @ 23:45
    Michael Green is the best! This was a great interview !
  • CS
    Chris S.
    18 March 2019 @ 08:26
    A really interesting conversation. But I picked up one sentence, that I can’t stop thinking about. Michael said „The market gets more efficient. The returns are becoming more stable and more predictable...“. And I totally understand what he means. But I guess what keeps bugging me is that according to Fama, an efficient market shouldn’t be predictable. So what do we mean when we’re talking about efficiency of the market? Do we mean that in a Fama sense or rather that the market is doing what we think it is supposed to be doing? Because I think the latter is quite the opposite of market efficiency as defined by Fama (at least as the semi-strong form). Actually one could argue that with so many fund managers struggling in 2018, the market was super efficient. No trend anomalies, many price jumps on new information, value underperforming, etc are all indications of an efficient market in a sense that there is no way of systematically beat the market. Would be interested about your thoughts!
  • RA
    Robert A.
    17 March 2019 @ 21:27
    What a great interview—the time just flew by! Even though I’m not involved with VC there were SO many tidbits that cross over to other investing areas, eg, Real Estate. Clearly these guys are operating on an entire other cerebral level, but allow us to follow along without seeming to intentionally “dumb it down” for us—truly an art form and I’m really glad to have been able to be in on the discussion. Great curation work Milton.
  • MN
    Michael N.
    17 March 2019 @ 19:09
    wolfe is one amazing interview! leader of the pack, thank you real vision
  • my
    markettaker y.
    17 March 2019 @ 18:14
    Wow.
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    17 March 2019 @ 11:18
    I love it when an interview becomes a discussion. We start to forget who is the interviewer and who is the interviewee because of the mutual respect and knowledge each one adds to the discussion. Its almost as each sentence is uttered a million thoughts are provoked by the other and these thoughts spread between them as the discussion continues. Michael Green is a master of this.
    • PG
      Philippe G.
      17 March 2019 @ 22:20
      You read my mind. Another masterpiece by Mike G.
  • SR
    Srikanth R.
    17 March 2019 @ 01:57
    Grateful for Michael and Josh, for making me one level smarter than I was before listening to this.
  • WY
    Weikun Y.
    17 March 2019 @ 01:12
    mind blow ~~~
  • KH
    Kuntal H.
    16 March 2019 @ 22:18
    Absolute delight of an interview! Josh as usual is great to hear. Mike Green is great as always! I wish someday I get to talk to such minds in person and learn from them as well as get advice for my own venture.
  • TR
    Travis R.
    16 March 2019 @ 20:58
    Mike Green with another great interview. Mike said he wasn't convinced the Fed was to blame for malinvestment and distorted markets. The Fed is not entirely to blame, but they bear the brunt of it. The Fed has enabled and encouraged massive speculation via engineered artificially low interest rates. Low interest rates allow asset prices to be marked artificially high while at the same time destroying returns for traditionally safer holdings such as bonds and cash equivalents. The genesis of malinvestment rests with the central banks. Central banks worldwide are actively burning down the economy. Think about the implications of negative interest rates on the values of assets and fiat money. Income inequality is a symptom of this distortion. The socialists have a rallying cry due to the majority feeling left behind. They blame capitalism and espouse socialism as the answer. The truth is Crony Capitalism supported by Central Banks issuance of Fiat money and interest rate manipulation have created income inequality. The answer is honest money and banking.
    • TR
      Travis R.
      16 March 2019 @ 21:00
      Reference: The Creature From Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin Debt=Money=Slavery https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKob3fGSm9o
  • JS
    John S.
    16 March 2019 @ 20:32
    Great interview. Would love to see Mike Green and Chris Cole in a panel discussion on how they would handicap when passive asset build maxes out and alpha flips from negative to positive for active managers.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      17 March 2019 @ 21:10
      Talking my book as an Artemis Capital investor, but strongly second a Mike Green/Chris Cole interview (and it was not a slip that I phrased it that way—Chris Cole could conduct a great interview of Mike if he is willing to trade hats!).
  • aD
    amol D.
    16 March 2019 @ 19:07
    Solid interview!! Great to see that even after a big win Josh still remains humble. Knowing a few VCs they all seem to think it was all their skill that led to success. This is like a breath of fresh air. Nicely done.
  • AP
    Anthony P.
    16 March 2019 @ 15:05
    Great interview, way to mix it up. The discussion about binary outcomes in tech, and SoftBank's ability to "king-make" was a perspective I've not heard before.
  • TS
    Todd S.
    16 March 2019 @ 13:54
    Fantastic interview! Amazing dialogue from two well spoken geniuses. Thank you Josh and Mike for delivering the goods.
  • AB
    Adam B.
    16 March 2019 @ 12:05
    Josh Wolfe talks in 1.5x regular speed
  • Mv
    Matthias v.
    16 March 2019 @ 10:48
    Wow! Josh, Michael great conversation! This is not 2nd level but 5th level thinking. Thanks to you and RV for letting us in on your thoughts and reasoning.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    16 March 2019 @ 06:46
    If I could give my year's supply of thumbs up to one video, this would be it.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    16 March 2019 @ 02:42
    As always Mike Green is masterful. Just the best!!!
  • ET
    Eduard T.
    16 March 2019 @ 02:11
    that was a great interview, thanks!
    • PD
      Paul D.
      17 March 2019 @ 16:53
      Hi Eduard did you go to IFP school?
  • SS
    Steven S.
    16 March 2019 @ 02:04
    First video I watched at Real Vision ... this is amazing content guys. Michael and Josh have great chemistry and I found the questions asked from both sides incredibly insightful.
  • DW
    David W.
    16 March 2019 @ 01:57
    This interview was excellent! Well worth the price of admission.
  • CN
    Charles N.
    16 March 2019 @ 01:28
    The crossover of public and private markets probably couldn't be better analyzed by anyone than Josh and Mike, and it could only happen on Real Vision. Fantastic stuff!
  • PV
    Peter V.
    16 March 2019 @ 01:22
    What a great interview.!
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    15 March 2019 @ 23:24
    Another phenomenal interview. I apologize in advance to my fellow RV member for my long comment/question. Mike, you can talk about waterfalls, TFP growth, one-touches, the list goes on and on. My question for you is, how long do you spend developing your base knowledge on a topic? Say for instance productivity growth. Did you sit down and pour over Robert Gordon's book, BLS, BEA, etc. papers/documents, talk with subject matter experts over the course of a couple hours, days, weeks? Or is it more of a spread out process where you are looking into many things throughout the day, compounding your knowledge over time? A lot of hard work goes into making it look easy. You're the epitome of what macro investing is all about, a beautiful combination of diverse subjects into a coherent framework for looking at the world. I appreciate you taking the time to do these wonderful interviews. Thank you!!!
  • WM
    William M.
    15 March 2019 @ 22:59
    great flow to their conversation - seemed very natural and less like an interview. great insights about so many important things... lots of fun...thanks!
  • SS
    Steve S.
    15 March 2019 @ 22:37
    Best interview YTD.
  • KA
    Kristian A.
    15 March 2019 @ 20:43
    We need more Mike Green ASAP
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    15 March 2019 @ 20:17
    Well gents that was the most sophisticated and esoteric discussion i have ever heard. After 51 years that is a humbling statement. Very cool to hear. Thank you
    • dw
      darcy w.
      16 March 2019 @ 00:17
      I take it you haven't seen any of their prior interviews? I'm watching this for the second time in the same day. On a different subject, not sure if it's the camera staging, but Mike looks like a giant next to Josh. One thing is certain, they are both mental titans.
    • my
      markettaker y.
      17 March 2019 @ 18:16
      I just love how Trader Vic is a regular in the rv comments section!!
  • DS
    David S.
    15 March 2019 @ 20:15
    I agree, Mike Green is great, and I always listen to his presentations often over time. Mike is more of a lead co-interviewee though than an straight interviewer. Both Mike and Josh are brilliant, but more importantly they have a mile-deep understanding in many areas of finance and mathematics - even Cartesian visualization skills . The most important asses shown in this video is how well they can draw out from different areas and stimulate each other’s positions. Like a chess game, Mike enjoys someone at Josh's level to keep him focused and deeply interested in the dialogue. I also enjoy many other interviewers on RVTV, as they bring their own style to the project. Thanks to all the staff at RVTV. DLS
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    15 March 2019 @ 17:09
    “greed is dominating” - so true! high quality content discussion. trumps most of the presented short term trading ideas by a mile. top notch stuff
  • CB
    Conor B.
    15 March 2019 @ 16:20
    two smart mofo's...
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    15 March 2019 @ 15:17
    I have been waiting for a conversation like this. Looks to me like Josh and Michael are now discussing and trying to get their arms around what Chamath Palihapitiya had figured out months ago and took action on. Chamath's blunt assessment was that the VC/LP/Agent carry "game" is a ponzi scheme, mile high, desert dry, wooden Tower of Babel, surrounded by 4 tons of dry tinder looking for a match. You can click on this link to here Chamath's cogent analysis of the situation. The video will start at the correct time and he lays out his case in the next 90 seconds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwRZtZQoLtQ&t=21m44s
    • EN
      Eric N.
      15 March 2019 @ 21:05
      Thank you for the link, as sincere as he is funny, never heard of Chamath before. I'll probably binge everything to be found on the Youtubes I can can find on him.
    • CC
      Christopher C.
      16 March 2019 @ 01:58
      He is brilliant, brash, honest and seems to be very principled. And funny as hell. What more can you ask for?
    • CR
      Chris R.
      16 March 2019 @ 07:41
      Cheers mate
  • DS
    Dusko S.
    15 March 2019 @ 14:06
    Phenomenal! Mike Green is by far the best interviewer on RV.
  • CL
    Charles L.
    15 March 2019 @ 11:23
    Ridiculous minds ... so annoying! Absolute privilege to listen to both gentlemen. Thanks for sharing with us. Would it be right to state it may all be a purely psychological self-fulfilling prophecy on the way up in markets (i.e. passive investing) and will be so on the way down too given a catalyst, as mentioned with Softbank and/or Tesla, as a pivot point?
    • JF
      James F.
      15 March 2019 @ 11:42
      Wholeheartedly agree... Great work Mike!

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