Secrets of the Short Book – Russell Clark

Featuring Russell Clark

Russell Clark is highly regarded in the hedge fund industry and in this often requested interview, investors will gain tremendous insights from his process, which starts with currencies, as well as his macro view of the world, including some incredible perspectives on Asia and the industries he’s targeting next on the short side. Filmed on June 27, 2017, in London.

Published on
14 July, 2017
Topic
Portfolio Management, Hedge fund, Macro
Duration
62 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Commodities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
42

Comments

  • TO

    Thomas O.

    18 9 2018 20:43

    0       0

    Let's please try and get a follow up w/Russell. Would love to hear his thoughts on semis and his reasoning behind the bear thesis just put out.

  • PP

    Prashant P.

    21 7 2018 01:33

    3       0

    can we get him back?

  • GS

    George S.

    24 6 2018 22:49

    5       0

    1 year later, i keep reviewing this one...so much in it!

  • VS

    Vasil S.

    31 10 2017 09:23

    1       0

    That was awesome!

  • fc

    frank c.

    12 8 2017 14:47

    1       0

    transition!!!

  • CM

    Chris M.

    9 8 2017 14:24

    3       0

    Excellent interview. One of the better macro interviews I have seen.

  • jh

    jim h.

    3 8 2017 23:27

    0       0

    Permmiam ac has never traded at $50/ac. $25k has been the recent ballpark. A massive error on his side. Agreed cheap cash is driving the drilling. But facts matter. Speaking as someone who has BT and sold Permian ac in the past six months.

  • bs

    bernard s.

    28 7 2017 05:15

    1       0

    does this mean that one should be overweight EMFX?

  • TS

    Tom S.

    27 7 2017 12:44

    1       0

    I am starting to hear more smart people discuss oligopolisation in the US (Google, Facebook, Amazon etc). To me this dominance cannot continue forever (as history tells us) just like Netscape was around in tech bubble but isn't today. As yet I am unsure how this theme materialises but I sense it is important.

  • HK

    Hurshy K.

    27 7 2017 11:51

    2       0

    Gonna have to watch this one a few times... way too smart for me haha

  • RD

    RP D.

    26 7 2017 22:20

    1       0

    Never heard of this guy until now. Wow, quality cognition... and honest eyes.

    Thanks Milton!

  • DS

    David S.

    24 7 2017 00:25

    2       0

    I have watched this interview four times. I enjoyed all of it each time and learn more each time. Congratulations - great conversations. I was going to use bookmarks, but there would be too many. DLS

  • BL

    Barclay L.

    24 7 2017 00:25

    5       3

    A lot of effusive comments here, but how about a few more hard-ball questions Raoul like: "How has performance been over last 12-months; what have you gotten right and wrong; how have you reacted?"

  • cc

    chris c.

    23 7 2017 21:10

    1       0

    SMART GUY

  • bb

    buck b.

    23 7 2017 03:28

    8       1

    Enjoyed. I agree IPhone has peaked and Apple is living off Jobs innovation. I switched to Google Pixel with Google Assistant and it rocks. Time for Real Vision to offer the Android app already!

  • MS

    Matt S.

    20 7 2017 06:42

    22       0

    Now that was quality RVTV! Great guest, would love to have him as a mentor.... wish I knew more about how macro works - treasuries, bonds, interest rates, correlations etc. Raoul! Please do a mega 10-part series, with hour long episodes about macro and how all those components fit together and what they really mean! Need a solid, solid primer so I can get more out of all these interviews that ALWAYS talk about these things that glide over my head!

  • MS

    Matt S.

    20 7 2017 06:42

    1       1

    Now that was quality RVTV! Great guest, would love to have him as a mentor.... wish I knew more about how macro works - treasuries, bonds, interest rates, correlations etc. Raoul! Please do a mega 10-part series, with hour long episodes about macro and how all those components fit together and what they really mean! Need a solid, solid primer so I can get more out of all these interviews that ALWAYS talk about these things that glide over my head!

  • RA

    Robert A.

    20 7 2017 02:09

    3       0

    I've watched them all and this is one of the absolute best. To follow up on the comment about Raoul listening and the interaction between two possibly juxtapositional thoughts on one level, yet in sync on another level----this is why I subscribed to Raoul and Julian's MACRO INSIDER. I have subscribed to countless excellent publications over the years, but this is by far the most I've ever spent on a year's publication. The quality of the RV experience and my bet on the integrity of Raoul and Julian made me jump over a Bar I never thought I would attempt.

  • CM

    Charles M.

    19 7 2017 17:07

    8       0

    Great interview. The key piece of the puzzle they miss when talking about US shale is the global natural depletion rate of existing production. The global current supply of oil naturally declines at a rate of 4-6% per year just through depletion. So incremental global barrels are needed to satisfy demand even with NO demand growth. I agree that the oil price will stay low for sometime and that we need to flush more US Shale drillers out of the system that own and drill marginal, uneconomic acreage, but overall the underlying medium/long term bull thesis is driven by the natural decline of current production.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    19 7 2017 15:56

    7       0

    Up there with the best RV interviews so far. Must get Russell back is possible for a follow up

  • NH

    Neil H.

    18 7 2017 19:22

    7       0

    Russels take was that reflation or inflation is a better bet than deflation. Raouls take is that deflation will win the day. Would have liked them to debate that issue as I continue to be confused .

  • ST

    Simon T.

    18 7 2017 03:42

    1       0

    Great interview, I didn't know Russell was an Aussie too. Really like looking at the market positioning i.e. consensus long poorly understood. A lot of good data being generated on positioning. Thanks

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    17 7 2017 23:22

    1       0

    Thank you RV for another amazing interview! Many great ideas and interesting thought processes! I've had Clark's view on Apple for years now (and ditched most of my Apple products a long time ago too). Hopefully the company can still be turned around with new management though? Is Tim Cook the new Steve Balmer? Microsoft had quite a renaissance since he left the company and I think Apple has still some time to turn around the ship with that huge pile of cash...

    Though Apple's plans are to burn cumulatively $300 billions in dividends and share buy-backs until 2019... What a waist of money... Steve Job must be rolling in his grave...

    On a side note, Amazon already tried to bring out a phone (the Amazon Fire phone), but flopped massively.

    https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00EOE0WKQ

    This doesn't say they won't try again, but they lost a lot of money on that project.

  • DC

    Darren C.

    17 7 2017 19:30

    4       0

    Good interview. Some interesting views on US Shale. Be great if RV could do a special on the industry and go bit deeper. Here are two latest pieces by Russell on Shale here https://www.horsemancapital.com/marketviews/russell-clark/2017/05/the-capital-destructive-nature-of-the-us-shale-industry
    and
    https://www.horsemancapital.com/marketviews/russell-clark/2017/07/the-end-of-the-texas-tea-party
    Also thought I'd share this interesting stat
    from FactSet - "In 2016, when crude averaged $43 a barrel, about 30 of the biggest shale companies spent $1.58 in cash for every $1 they generated, according to FactSet. US operators have lost a combined $130 billion since 2015."

  • AB

    AJ B.

    17 7 2017 19:24

    3       9

    Great interview.

    He is wrong on Apple. Once a human has integrated an operating system into their life they do not change (See Windows XP). Apple bears change phones to show it can be done, but the greater population as a whole will go with what is easy and already understood.

  • GT

    Graham T.

    17 7 2017 16:51

    0       1

    Now this Bad Boy has made me think.
    isn't that an RV slogan !!!
    Oi don't forget where you heard it first lads

  • RC

    Ryan C.

    17 7 2017 16:47

    0       0

    Fantastic interview, great perspective on currencies and flows.

  • DG

    Daniel G.

    17 7 2017 16:26

    1       0

    I like his non-consensus views but the poker thing was not an accurate assessment of risk/reward in the game.

  • DH

    Daniel H.

    17 7 2017 14:37

    0       0

    Very interested to hear his take on Japanese money flows into bitcoin. Fantastic interview. The subscription is worth every dollar.

  • VS

    Victor S.

    17 7 2017 12:20

    4       3

    Was interesting but - "none " of your interviews mention ,much less focus ,on the politics of the world? The movement of the the world is to Socialism / economic fascism ie govt/corporate partnerships. See Venizuela for the endgame. That is where the money is (?) to be made in my view and it is completely not discussed. You may want to think about it?

  • JE

    Jos E.

    17 7 2017 10:02

    0       0

    Absolutely phenomenal

  • JM

    Jim M.

    16 7 2017 18:57

    1       0

    RV provides me with endless opportunities to realize just how little I know about global finance and no time more so than this video. For that I thank Raoul, Grant & Co.

  • JT

    Jimmy T.

    16 7 2017 18:28

    0       0

    Best interview by far and there have been some good ones.

  • NT

    Nic T.

    16 7 2017 18:14

    1       0

    Fascinating insight into a brilliant mind. Much food for thought and a great alternative perspective and approach.

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    16 7 2017 07:16

    5       0

    Absolutely fantastic interview - wow, Russell is hands down one of the brightest thinkers on RV I have seen. He is awesome! Please get him back again. Gained huge insight from his discussion of shale, the Dollar and Texas Hold 'Em! And I really admire his modesty given how successful he has been.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    16 7 2017 05:52

    5       0

    Love the way Russell thinks! His sharing his process, priceless! His demonstrating his process in action via examples, cherry on the cake. Raoul hit it out of ballpark with his thought provoking questions. Russell'so ego level, in check. Nice!

  • EL

    Edward L.

    16 7 2017 02:20

    1       1

    Very interesting. One the best so far. Quick question to Russell / anyone... In the scenario that the US shale market crumbles and oil spikes, at which point (oil prices) does the return on capital for credit investors make sense to rejuvenate the US shale businesses? or in other words, at what oil price are US shale companies sustainably profitable? (or have missed the concept completely)

  • HK

    Himali K.

    15 7 2017 20:55

    5       0

    Best Interview thus far in 2017! Great insight!

  • NG

    Nicolas G.

    15 7 2017 17:59

    0       0

    Top!

  • AG

    Amir G.

    15 7 2017 14:52

    1       0

    Best so far. What about bitcoin?

  • DG

    Dave G.

    15 7 2017 14:25

    9       0

    One of the best interviews ever on RV and that's saying something!

  • GF

    George F.

    15 7 2017 11:43

    0       2

    Mexican Peso is at 2 yr highs vs USD, has something changed in Mexico?

  • TH

    Timo H.

    15 7 2017 11:12

    2       0

    Remarkable interview. It confirmed my gut feeling, that watching USDJPY is essential in the coming months. Should it go down, it takes the US stocks and treasuries with it. Then comes QE4 to prop up the bond market.

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    15 7 2017 08:50

    7       0

    Wow, instant classic!
    I love nothing more than a (good) crazy idea, and Japan as the centre of the financial universe and the yen as the anchor currency surely fits the bill! Time to chew over this idea with a glass of whisky, or several.

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    15 7 2017 06:48

    2       0

    Let's see now...don't think anyone has used spectacular yet so I will. A spectacular interview with an original thinker. And Raoul...you were great too...as always.

  • DC

    Dave C.

    15 7 2017 03:36

    12       1

    Check out Shale analysis from Russell here - well worth a read

    http://horsemancapital.com/marketviews/russell-clark/2017/07/the-end-of-the-texas-tea-party

  • NS

    Nic S.

    15 7 2017 03:29

    0       0

    Really great interview. His thinking is original and makes realvision well worth the cost

  • JM

    John M.

    15 7 2017 03:21

    1       0

    Great interview. Would have also liked to hear him elaborate on his thoughts about gold.

  • sp

    shashwat p.

    15 7 2017 03:21

    1       0

    man. how good was this ! single interview worth the entry price! going to re-watch right now!

  • DS

    David S.

    15 7 2017 01:49

    4       0

    Great interview. Watched video twice. Off for a couple of beers, and will read transcript when I return. Too many gems to uncover. One major net, net for me was the shift to Asia and away from the US. This is apparent, but it is good to see Mr. Clark's agreement. It will take time, but current US policies are making the the transition quicker. Europe has a better chance of working with Asia especially as China's infrastructure is developed on sea and land. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    15 7 2017 01:36

    0       0

    Excellent interview and such a gentleman. I wonder if any of his calmness comes from his time in Japan as a youth? DLs

  • RM

    Ronnie M.

    15 7 2017 00:09

    1       0

    If US oil production declines (due to reduced investment, high decline rates), won't fracking companies benefit from higher oil prices? I get that other countries won't cut production as they can't and oil may drop further, but perhaps riskier than it sounds?

  • JV

    Justin V.

    14 7 2017 23:14

    0       5

    Attack who? "American Movilers"? Can't understand what he said. (54:37). And what's an ADR?

  • PW

    Phil W.

    14 7 2017 22:19

    6       1

    Yes this is more like it! Great interview. Better than that E.B. Eddy (lost for words here) but clap-trap should do!

    Keep bringing to deep thinkers.........All of course IMHO

  • MA

    Mikael A.

    14 7 2017 20:41

    1       1

    Over any kind of resonable sample size there is no player who would win more with flushdraws compared to AA.

  • MA

    Mikael A.

    14 7 2017 20:39

    5       5

    Not to be negative but that poker analysis makes absolutely no sense what so ever.

  • MB

    Mike B.

    14 7 2017 20:05

    1       3

    Not sure about his conclusion on Shale. If he was right on U.S. shale, oil would be North of $60 today.

  • CY

    C Y.

    14 7 2017 19:52

    33       0

    Amazing interview. I think Raoul's greatest strength is that he listens. Amazing to watch him challenge his own views real time. Great interview guys.

  • LN

    Lucy N.

    14 7 2017 19:50

    1       0

    Thank you real vision for this great interview

  • AL

    Andrew L.

    14 7 2017 19:27

    6       0

    Glad I resubscribed to RV. Interview was worth every second

  • AL

    Andrew L.

    14 7 2017 19:27

    0       0

    Glad I resubscribed to RV. Interview was worth every second

  • JM

    James M.

    14 7 2017 19:00

    7       1

    Excellent explanation on Japan and the Yen was always a mystery to me why the yen is considered a "Safe" currency with Japans insolvent balance sheet. Should get Max Kaiser on he has been talking about the madness of the Shale industry for 2 years! Cheers great piece.

  • BB

    Bob B.

    14 7 2017 18:44

    2       2

    Great interview very insightful. One thought. They do not have to give the Japanese $100,000 to have kids. Like he said there is something primal to having kids, its called sex! Just take away the contraceptives they will have plenty of kids.

  • GS

    George S.

    14 7 2017 18:43

    2       0

    The man, the myth, the legend! This interview was long overdue and it delivered...and then some.

  • WS

    William S.

    14 7 2017 18:43

    8       0

    Fabulous interview which will bear watching again. I am increasingly inclined to concur with Russell's perspective on the future of the USD: fundamental conditions are in the process of a radical transformation, and in the face of the next (imminent?) financial crisis, the USD (and USTs) are simply not going to attract the same kind of safe-haven flows most still regard as inevitable. And therefore, even though the initial reflex in a crisis may produce a short-term spike in the USD, it will quickly lose momentum and then reverse in dramatic, unprecedented fashion, with the USD plumbing new lows and perhaps -- especially if aided by reactionary Fed policy blunders -- even morphing into a bona fide hyper-inflationary supernova as the majority of the world rejects King Dollar once and for all.

  • KV

    Koen V.

    14 7 2017 18:41

    2       0

    Loved his discussion on the shale industry

  • MS

    Michael S.

    14 7 2017 18:29

    0       0

    Best in class trader!

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    14 7 2017 18:21

    0       0

    Fantastic interview! Thanks a lot for the themes and process behind.

  • CO

    Casual O.

    14 7 2017 18:04

    0       0

    Outstanding

  • LA

    Linda A.

    14 7 2017 17:54

    6       1

    Wow never heard of Russell Clark but I am impressed. Thank u RV & Raoul for making this interview one of the best! Yes, I do see US losing competitiveness. Yes, Apple has become lazy while Amazon continues to innovate. The US CEO's making massive stock buybacks at these high prices should be fired. They are enriching themselves while destroying their co's by not innovating. If u stop innovating, u get eaten by the hungry sharks (China & India) etc. RC is on point.

  • SC

    Shane C.

    14 7 2017 17:48

    2       0

    Macro/Micro paradigm nice!. A man after my own heart

  • VP

    Vincent P.

    14 7 2017 16:48

    1       0

    Excellent!

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    14 7 2017 16:39

    1       0

    I read about this guy on zerohedge all the time - manager of the 'most bearish hedge fund'. Nice to finally put a face to it.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    14 7 2017 16:16

    8       2

    Excellent interview, RV really jumps over the bar. Worth the annual subscription in one day, 364 now are free. ;-)
    Keep up the amazing work.

  • IC

    Ibrahim C.

    14 7 2017 15:34

    2       0

    Two different views and you have the synthesis to decide where to invest! I think I can agree with Russel for now, but it turns out that Raoul will be right at the end!

  • NA

    Nasser A.

    14 7 2017 14:27

    4       0

    great interview

  • BK

    Brian K.

    14 7 2017 14:18

    5       0

    This is why RVTV is worth every cent. Awesome access, awesome content. Great stuff guys. Keep it up!

  • GP

    Gordon P.

    14 7 2017 13:27

    4       0

    I certainly will have to watch this interview again - awesome, Thanks RV

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    14 7 2017 13:18

    17       1

    A rare original thinker. Fantastic

  • CL

    Cameron L.

    14 7 2017 12:42

    1       0

    Been waiting for Russel to appear ever since i first signed up to RV Q3 2014. Industry Legend !

  • DY

    Dmytro Y.

    14 7 2017 12:30

    4       0

    Very smart man

  • dj

    daniel j.

    14 7 2017 11:30

    2       0

    Damn - wonderfull. I know this business and he is totally right