Tesla, Japan, and The Hunt for Red Flags

Published on
April 26th, 2019
Duration
75 minutes

Tesla, Japan, and The Hunt for Red Flags

The Interview ·
Featuring John Hempton

Published on: April 26th, 2019 • Duration: 75 minutes

John Hempton, CIO of Bronte Capital, is one of the most colorful short-sellers in the business. In this deep and wide-ranging discussion with Matt Milsom, he discusses the red flags that lead him to short particular stocks, and shares some of his methodology for managing his short book. Hempton also weighs in on Tesla in particular, before discussing the difference between American and Japanese businesses. Finally, Hempton goes in depth about what he’s now looking for on the long side. Filmed on April 15, 2019 in Sydney, Australia.

Comments

Transcript

  • AV
    Adam V.
    6 May 2019 @ 18:08
    Great interview. As he was mentioning prime brokers, I checked out his latest 13F and low and behold, his firm bought 446k of $IBKR.
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    6 May 2019 @ 03:13
    I'm enjoying John Milsom's interviews. Thanks, RV
    • KC
      Kenneth C.
      6 May 2019 @ 03:13
      sorry Matt.
  • FP
    Filip P.
    2 May 2019 @ 12:17
    How do you spell name of the company fraud he's talking about in the beginning?
  • SP
    Sat P.
    1 May 2019 @ 13:52
    Great discussion on stocks that I’ve never heard of. However, I don’t understand why he doesn’t understand why Brexiteers voted out. He says that we need to have a society which taxes people to pay for Education, Health etc so the masses don’t suffer. Brits are being taxed to death: Councils are hiking taxes way beyond inflation, wages are taxed at 45% for top earners leaving little incentive to do better, Central Banks are destroying peoples’ savings and on top of that we have an open borders policy to let people get free housing and healthcare before they’ve paid a penny in tax. This just shows how some people can be smart in one area and be clueless in another. I expected more from John with regards to his understanding of Brexit
    • PJ
      Peter J.
      2 May 2019 @ 10:19
      A somewhat polarised view of Brexit, just because you are not in favour of it does not make you clueless.
  • HH
    Henri H.
    30 April 2019 @ 21:06
    Great interview! Great stories and perspectives on various issues. John is definitely one of my all time favourite guests!
  • SS
    Sam S.
    29 April 2019 @ 16:51
    Mr. Hempton is an amazing person, but I don't agree with his Brexit comments. EU bond market is destroyed, trapped and the EU is a huge mess. It's become a political union and a one-sided fake trade union. Rolls Royce will do just fine and most likely do better. The world will come flocking to do business with the Britain, just like they did when Trump got elected. The EU needs Britain, not the other way around. John even said politics in Britain is a joke, so why believe in anything from the likes of Theresa May. What they and what they say are different. Would have liked to hear of some real trade ideas, to look into, regarding short positions. Everyone is aware of Tesla.
  • CW
    C W.
    29 April 2019 @ 16:17
    One word springs to mind when listening to the Bronte Capital blogger -- contemplative. In other words very riveting, to me. Some would find his drawl rather uninteresting, but in what has now become a 'big tent' RV community, that is to be expected. To each his or her own, and I'm glad RV provides a variety.
  • PD
    Peder D.
    29 April 2019 @ 14:04
    This video doesn't seem to work at the moment. Freezes every time after about a minute
  • JS
    John S.
    29 April 2019 @ 12:21
    TBH unfortunately this was a bit boring
  • JB
    Jutas B.
    29 April 2019 @ 07:38
    Amazing!!!
  • TM
    Tom M.
    29 April 2019 @ 02:16
    Globalization necessitated "free money" as central banks tried to desperately stimulate Western economies. Else the truth of deindustrialization and inability to grow would start coming out 15 years ago.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    28 April 2019 @ 23:07
    Excellent. Matt did an excellent job conducting this interview. Brought out the best with John. Great work RV.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    28 April 2019 @ 21:06
    Excellent!
  • TS
    Todd S.
    28 April 2019 @ 16:37
    Well done! Thoroughly enjoyed
  • IH
    Iain H.
    28 April 2019 @ 12:50
    What can you say? Great a real pleasure to listen to and masses to take away.
  • JW
    Joe W.
    28 April 2019 @ 03:38
    Excellent interview and learned some new areas to look into.
  • CM
    Carl M.
    28 April 2019 @ 01:57
    I liked how we the viewer, are along for the ride on his thought process. His gift of gab not withstanding.
  • MA
    Matthew A.
    28 April 2019 @ 01:42
    Colourful (Yes! that's how Canadians spelling it eh.!)
  • JN
    Jill N.
    28 April 2019 @ 00:06
    Excellent interview, always enjoy hearing John’s informed & frank views on an array of topics
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    27 April 2019 @ 22:59
    I find it little bizarre though that John was short AMRN at $3. The max he can make is $3 on a stock and the downside was kind of unlimited
    • FD
      Frank D.
      28 April 2019 @ 21:36
      Every short has a theoretically unlimited upside. The share price isn’t the determinant of that. As Chanos said, “I’ve seen more stocks go to zero than infinity.” (Market cap could perhaps be a better check on upside potential - a $20 billion company that is a fraud might be less likely to be a 10 Bagger than a $20 million market cap just due to the sheer amount of capital involved)
    • FD
      Frank D.
      28 April 2019 @ 21:37
      *every stock has a theoretically unlimited upside / every short has a theoretically unlimited downside... excuse my iPhone typo!
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    27 April 2019 @ 22:17
    High caliber guest, loved it.
  • YU
    Yoni U.
    27 April 2019 @ 16:30
    Bring this man back. That was superb.
  • MT
    Matthew T.
    27 April 2019 @ 15:54
    I could listen to John all day and always learn something. Please have him back.
  • AJ
    Aaron J.
    27 April 2019 @ 14:37
    Thoroughly enjoyed this conversation. Classic RV.
  • CL
    Chris L.
    27 April 2019 @ 04:29
    It is actually mindnumbing when people call elon an "innovator." You have people like John say this, and then you have actual industry experts say elon has absolutely no standing in what he's doing. Whether Tesla is a fraud or not is whatever. Elon is a fraud of character.
    • gg
      georgy g.
      27 April 2019 @ 10:54
      Chris there is innovation at tsla and more importantly spacex. But it is not at scale Elon likes to pretend. As tsla original tech was not new. But there is this great ambition of innovation that is good for society at large. Offset by this “I can get away with being unethical” attitude that is not good for society attitude. But the point is that tsla carbon footprint is bigger than that of diesel based Mercedes and many of the claims are in disregard for safety and other people lives. As Charlie’s munger said “Of course I want the guy who understands his limitations instead of the guy who doesn’t. On the other hand, I’ve learned something terribly important in life . . . never underestimate the man who overestimates himself. These weird guys who overestimate themselves occasionally knock it right out of the park,” he said. “I don’t want my personal life to be a bunch of guys who are living in a state of delusion, who happen occasionally to win big. I want the prudent person.”
    • NI
      Nate I.
      28 April 2019 @ 23:11
      The $420 tweet says it all. Martha Stewart went to prison for jay walking by comparison. I hope the "archeologists" at SEC will eventually give Elon his just deserts.
  • gg
    georgy g.
    27 April 2019 @ 02:56
    Thoroughly enjoyed
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    27 April 2019 @ 01:25
    With Matt Milano all the way on the effects of central banks on wealth inequality.
  • FD
    Frank D.
    27 April 2019 @ 01:10
    Brilliantly thought provoking, as usual. We’re lucky to have someone like this down under
  • HF
    Hassan F.
    27 April 2019 @ 01:08
    John never fails to bring it. Also goon on the interviewer for letting John do what he does best and letting him run with his chain of thoughts.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    26 April 2019 @ 23:51
    Fantastic interview. Great interviewer, great guest!
  • WY
    Will Y.
    26 April 2019 @ 23:45
    Please do more of these
  • ZB
    Zachary B.
    26 April 2019 @ 21:46
    Really thankful for the quality of this interview. Please dispense from diluting your content by adding any warm body.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    26 April 2019 @ 21:45
    Really enjoyed this interview!!! Thank you to a gentleman who knows his craft.
  • AA
    Aymman A.
    26 April 2019 @ 21:17
    Terrific interview!!
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    26 April 2019 @ 20:40
    John is an amazing story teller! Great interview!
  • SW
    Sean W.
    26 April 2019 @ 17:44
    Super insightful commentary on Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
  • JB
    Jeff B.
    26 April 2019 @ 17:33
    He is a legend (to me at least)! Thank you for this interview!
  • MA
    Mikael A.
    26 April 2019 @ 15:10
    TSLA below 150 by end of the year?
  • RM
    Richard M.
    26 April 2019 @ 14:53
    Superb interview! John is always interesting and amusing - so very thoughtful in his analysis and insights too. Thank you!
  • MM
    Michael M.
    26 April 2019 @ 14:52
    Superb interview other than the snooty comments about brexit voters. The whole point is the consensus is not working for the whole polity anymore - and people are smart enough to realise this even if it means short term pain - as long as the result is actually realised.
  • JZ
    Jia Z.
    26 April 2019 @ 13:33
    Awesome interview guys
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    26 April 2019 @ 12:23
    Always great
  • HK
    H K.
    26 April 2019 @ 11:16
    This was an amazing interview. It alone was worth the annual subscription. p.s. the Asset Class: is mentioned as 'Currencies' which isn't the case.