The Future of Macro Investing
Featuring Dan Tapiero and Raoul Pal
Published on: July 22nd, 2019 • Duration: 62 minutes
Dan Tapiero, co-founder of Gold Bullion International, has grown increasingly focused on the potential for crypto to reorganize the entire world. In this conversation with Raoul Pal, he defines what bitcoin really is, and explains why he sees bitcoin as the future of investment even in the face of a possible recession. In Tapiero’s view, future generations may remember the creation of the internet as a critical step towards building this new system of currency — rather than seeing it as fostering greater centralization for a small group of companies. Filmed on July 9, 2019 in New York.
DAN TAPIERO: Bitcoin was down 85% from the high and as an old time macro guy, you're looking to buy things that have gone down 85%, 90% after a blow-off. That's what it is. I think it's a security truth machine. Okay, well, Amazon, that's worth a trillion dollars itself stuff on the internet. But is that as valuable as a new invention for humanity?
RAOUL PAL: One of my key ideas is that within this recession scenario that I think is building, that gold and Bitcoin are going to be two of the assets that perform extremely well because they've become options on a more extreme monetary policy. So, I wanted to speak to one person who brings both of those themes together. He happens to be one of the most experienced macro people in the entire world. He's touched and worked with a lot of the greats of the industry, and he has a unique perspective. And he's been hassling me and hounding me for about six months now that I need to get back involved in Bitcoin.
And when Dan, who's not a Bitcoin guy originally, starts doing that to me, he's got a reason because he's a pure macro player. So, I really want to hear what he's thinking here and how this fits into my broader narrative.
Dan, finally, we get you back. Your previous videos were cult watching for a lot of people because you're one of the pure macro guys. And I was doing this whole thought process about recession and bits and pieces. I've been thinking the Bitcoin was part of what I'm looking at within that framework. And you and I separately, have been talking about it and you'd been hounding me from about February onwards, saying, come on, Raoul, you got to get back into this.
Before we get into your thought process and how you've applied your own macro framework into building your Bitcoin thesis, it's just people should- because many people wouldn't have seen you from the earlier interviews, just to go back over some of your background. And the reason that I like to pick your brains and stuff is you have a background almost unparalleled from anybody I know. You've worked with the greats of the industry, whether it was Julian Robertson at Tiger, Stan Druckenmiller, whether it was Steinhardt, whether it was Jacob Rothschild, whether it's Stevie Cohen, the list is endless.
And you get all their perspectives from working and seeing how they all trade. You're also a bit of an entrepreneur. You started a gold business, which was a crazy idea when you did, when you started it. But now, it's really interesting, Gold Bullion International. GBI is really interesting business. You even started, I think, the largest farming real estate business in the world with Stan Druckenmiller and managed to punted on to the Canadian pension system, I think it's now resold to Bill Gates, I think it is.
Your perspective is just extraordinary, and then that's why I trust you're a macro guy through and through, you've lived and breathe this stuff. And when you start hounding me by email every day, almost, somehow, Bitcoin, Bitcoin. Okay, what the fuck is going on?
DAN TAPIERO: Yeah, thanks for that. Thanks for that intro. Yeah, I know, we haven't- over the years- talked that much about Bitcoin. You're one of the guys who back in '13-'14, I think put it on the map, at least for the macro community. You were very bullish very early. And I was also involved. Early through GBI, we had in 2014, integrated with the uphold platform, which allowed clients to buy and sell ripple in Bitcoin to buy and sell physical gold, as well as other metals.
And so, that was a whole year long integration. And going through that process, I realized, wow, this is something, it could be big, or the company's going to make revenues. And unfortunately, what happened was that it started well, but it never really