The Business Cycle in Abnormal Times

Featuring Robin Griffiths

Robin Griffiths has over 50 years’ experience in the markets and is a true expert on long term business cycles and technical analysis. In this interview, Robin explains how he applies his unique framework to the world around us and what factors, in his eyes, present a danger to investors. Find out what markets are overvalued or fully valued and why people only stay on top of the mountain long enough to take a photograph. Filmed on August 14, 2017, in London.

Published on
22 August, 2017
Topic
Investment Framework, Global Outlook, Asia
Duration
36 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Currencies, Equities
Rating
36

Comments

  • JA

    John A.

    29 9 2017 22:47

    0       1

    Robin - if in FAANG, the first A is for Amazon and the other A is for Alphabet, then what is the G for?

  • TS

    Timothy S.

    22 9 2017 19:02

    0       0

    I'm a cycles guy. Loved the interview.

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    6 9 2017 13:21

    5       0

    Last year - October 2016 S&P chart and October 1987 S&P chart looked exactly the same too and what happened? NOTHING -- difference now and 1987 is we have world wide Goldman Sachs Central Bank collusion and I believe nothing wil happen and my logic is that because everyone everyone everyone is predicting this crash - it won't happen. Crash will happen when least expected - hedge your bets.

  • TK

    Tyler K.

    2 9 2017 19:00

    0       0

    Great insight and commentary. As the interview concluded the world debt burden was mentioned...would LOVE to hear his thoughts on that!

  • CM

    Chris M.

    2 9 2017 15:43

    2       0

    One of the best interviews I have seen on the site. Not selling a position, but good analysis of current markets.

  • MC

    M C.

    1 9 2017 14:22

    3       0

    Really good. Listening to people who have been through multiple market cycles across a long history is always and everywhere useful and interesting

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    31 8 2017 08:09

    2       0

    Great interview, it's like sitting on a classroom in a top business school.

    • NR

      Nuno R.

      31 8 2017 08:25

      0       0

      But his assessment that the demand for oil is shrinking it's not correct... demand is actually quite strong despite the bear narrative and the arrival (on a very small scale) of electric cars

  • RE

    Rob E.

    30 8 2017 21:33

    1       0

    Tim - if you'd bought the us market in 1964, you had to wait until1994 to be back at the same level...

  • WM

    William M.

    26 8 2017 15:19

    1       0

    Excellent. Such an experienced investment practitioner. I like ECU reports too.

  • MS

    Matt S.

    25 8 2017 12:25

    8       0

    an insert of his overlay chart would have been appreciated

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    25 8 2017 12:12

    2       1

    Robin you are an absolute legend! Thanks for the great interview.

  • RG

    Richard G.

    25 8 2017 04:14

    2       0

    Excellent interview. Thank you very much!

  • TS

    Todd S.

    25 8 2017 00:41

    1       0

    Well done gentlemen! Tremendous value

  • CC

    Charnes C.

    24 8 2017 21:24

    4       1

    Great interview. I'm trying to wrap my head around markets, cycles and how they relate to each other. I created a website to connect with others in the investing community. I am not selling anything and simply want to throw my ideas "out there" for critic / comment. As a practicing physician, no one around me seems the least bit interested in markets, debt, cycles, money, gold, etc. Thanks in advance. https://www.golddowcycles.com/

    • MS

      Matt S.

      25 8 2017 12:24

      1       0

      so join some forums, there are about 1 million of them

  • HM

    Hot M.

    24 8 2017 06:46

    1       0

    Thanks for this interview, Grant.

  • SH

    Stu H.

    23 8 2017 21:16

    6       3

    Superb, Robin is one of my favourite interviewees. It's a minor complaint but please reconsider the camera angles and production effects. Your quality of guests and content speaks for itself, no need for distractions.

  • RM

    R M.

    23 8 2017 17:38

    9       0

    What a logical thinker with lots of experience. Excellent!

    Robin: What happens to the Asian markets if the US has a 1987 event?

    Grant: Can't you find more comfy chairs and go a bit longer with folks like this?

    • JS

      Jessica S.

      30 8 2017 22:00

      2       0

      We expect all markets will fall in a de-risking scenario like 1987, as they are all correlated. However, after such a fall we would see Asian markets higher in 3-5 years as they remain in secular uptrend whereas most Western markets are in secular downtrend. Also, cheaper markets should fall less as they have a valuation cushion. India is trading on a slight premium rating, so is vulnerable on that basis, but it would only make for a more attractive long term buying opportunity as it's the one we like the most as a long term holding.

      I have a chart that demonstrates this - email me at Jessica.scott@ecugroup.com and I will send it to you!

  • JS

    Jessica S.

    23 8 2017 15:49

    7       0

    For more information on Robin's work please visit www.globalinvestmentroadmap.com

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    23 8 2017 04:56

    8       0

    Agree with many of the comments already made regarding Robin's wisdom and clarity. Also loved many of the old-school British idioms and turns of phrase. A very jolly gentleman indeed!

    One thing I'd add is that although he talked about his inclination / focus on technical analysis, I was struck by how many value-investing based statements he was making, talking about "toppiness" of US market, promise and prospects of the Indian one, etc. And I am seeing exactly what he is...we are squarely in the calm before the storm. Batten down the hatches, ladies and gents, it could be a bumpy one.

  • CW

    Chad W.

    23 8 2017 04:03

    16       0

    I think we really need a good explanation of what a debt jubilee would mean exactly, at least I do, or if such a thing is even possible.
    I have friends who when we have debates on the level of debt in this world will always fall back on the
    "Debt jubilee" solution as if it will fix everything.
    There has to be some consequences at the end of all of this or we now live in a world where 2+2=5
    P.S. Tis but a scratch. The Black Knight always triumphs!

    • PN

      Philip N.

      23 8 2017 06:19

      7       0

      I would be interested in hearing about the debt jubilee as well. The thing I always wonder is how will they accommodate the people who did everything right and lived within their means. Will they be thrown under the bus yet again to save the wastrels.

    • TM

      The-First-James M.

      23 8 2017 15:23

      3       0

      If it's deemed a short term benefit to the ruling elite, the prudent will certainly be thrown under the bus.

    • MM

      Mario M.

      24 8 2017 03:05

      4       0

      You can't talk about Debt Jubilee and not mention Steven Keen. ;-)
      http://www.afr.com/markets/steve-keen-rebel-economist-with-a-cause-20170104-gtluez

    • MO

      Mike O.

      4 9 2017 21:14

      0       0

      Actually, the RVTV interview that Steve Keen had with Michael Hudson (Rebel Economists Unpick Historical Path to Global Recovery on Nov. 22, 2016) discussed a debt jubilee (among a great deal of other fascinating economic history and philosophy).

      I loved it (probably because I am largely ignorant in this area and most of what they discussed was new to me) and I thought the historic context they provided was fascinating and the impact of the jubilee (i.e., on those holding the debt) was far less (in my opinion) than I had earlier imagined.

      HIghly recommend giving it a listen.

  • B

    Bob .

    23 8 2017 03:34

    10       0

    Would love to see him back to discuss the debt jubilee.

    Excellent Session. Thanks.

  • CW

    Chad W.

    23 8 2017 03:19

    0       0

    Jolly Good!!!

  • EH

    Emil H.

    23 8 2017 02:00

    8       0

    Like Grant points out, 52 years as an active market participant is extraordinary. Love the thoughtfulness and perspective on both long term and short term trends and cycles. Fantastic.

  • KD

    Ken D.

    23 8 2017 01:49

    3       0

    Wonderful!!!!

  • PR

    Paolo R.

    23 8 2017 00:36

    8       0

    Fantastic, I wish he could've elaborated a bit more on the debt jubilee... :)

  • CH

    Colin H.

    23 8 2017 00:23

    18       0

    Grant is a talented interviewer. I've noticed this in the last while. He makes it look easy.

  • CR

    Charlie R.

    22 8 2017 23:44

    7       0

    Appreciate this sage wisdom from someone who sailed these seas in all types of conditions! No doubt my confirmation bias added to my enjoyment! 😉

  • AK

    Alexander K.

    22 8 2017 20:19

    15       0

    Superb interview Grant. Love tapping into these old school thinkers.

  • JM

    John M.

    22 8 2017 20:13

    13       0

    Enjoy hearing the perspective of these 'old warriors' (another is Victor Sperandeo) who have actual experience of a number of very different financial environments.

  • GC

    Gary C.

    22 8 2017 19:16

    7       0

    Deep,deep wisdom from the oracle of London...thank you..

  • RA

    Robert A.

    22 8 2017 18:14

    4       1

    Ba da Bing, pithy and concise. Can't wait to see his debt jubilee analysis---a few REALLY smart people have move this topic from the fantasy stage to the "well, of course" stage.

  • ag

    anthony g.

    22 8 2017 17:52

    4       0

    Real pleasure - hope he can come back.

  • EH

    Edwin H.

    22 8 2017 17:46

    27       1

    When I watch CNBC I believe the quote from Billy Madison sums it up "At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

    When I watch Real Vision, I believe the opposite. This was one of the top 5 interviews for sure. I believe in his thesis on current markets and it will be interesting to see how all this bad debt will unfold...

  • CB

    Clifford B.

    22 8 2017 16:57

    5       0

    He reminded me of "Coleman" the butler in the Eddie Murphy / Dan Akroyd movie "Trading Places"

    • MS

      Matt S.

      25 8 2017 12:11

      1       0

      I always thought Dan Akroyd's character's posh girlfriend was so hot in those white panties..... :)

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    22 8 2017 16:51

    6       0

    this guy is always a very clear speaker

  • ET

    Ed T.

    22 8 2017 16:29

    3       1

    Outstanding interview and a very interesting discussion. Great work guys.

  • TH

    Tim H.

    22 8 2017 16:08

    5       28

    The first 15 seconds or so was enough for me to stop watching - overlaying 1987 charts with the current year happens pretty much every year that I have been following markets.... It is not analysis, it is lazy scaremongering.

    • TH

      Tim H.

      22 8 2017 16:13

      3       1

      Apologies if that comes across as disrespectful, am now watching the whole video having read up on him. Still, the highlight at the start does him no favours!

    • TH

      Tim H.

      22 8 2017 20:27

      3       21

      A waste of 35 minutes really, nothing new.

      7 down arrows on the first comment, does that mean some RVTV viewers actually think a chart of '87 overlaid onto 2017 is good analysis? No wonder RV started up their publications service....

    • IO

      Igor O.

      23 8 2017 15:56

      3       0

      I just waisted 12 seconds of my life i am not getting back reading your comments

    • TH

      Tim H.

      23 8 2017 21:10

      0       3

      Sorry to hear that Igor, I was looking forward to your intelligent thoughts on why overlaying the 1987 stock chart with 2017 was worthwhile analysis. I assume you do not have a coherent answer.

    • MS

      Matt S.

      25 8 2017 12:09

      2       0

      When will you be appearing as a guest on RVTV, Tim?

    • WM

      William M.

      26 8 2017 14:47

      2       0

      Tim, you sound like a younger man with limited experience. I hope thats true or else you have embarrassed yourself.

    • TH

      Tim H.

      29 8 2017 16:50

      0       0

      Not sure how I have embarrassed myself. We all know there is a bubble that has been forming for many years, RVTV have been telling us since day one and encouraging us to 'take risk off the table'.... If you had told the average RVTV guest at the start of 2016 that the UK would vote to leave and Trump would become president, they would have all (or the vast majority) suggested selling stocks big time.... Point is, even if they had known exactly what was going to happen politically, they still would have had markets completely wrong. Why listen?

  • PN

    Philip N.

    22 8 2017 13:17

    20       0

    Grant said "We are almost out of time" and I thought "No I have lots of time for this keep going."

  • JV

    Jason V.

    22 8 2017 11:37

    43       0

    Extraordinary. Wisdom and experience, presented with perfect clarity. A wonderful role model for all investors. Please bring Robin back soon for a much longer interview!

    • us

      ujjwal s.

      22 8 2017 17:06

      7       0

      Completely agree!

    • BS

      Baldev S.

      23 8 2017 12:38

      4       0

      Love people like Robin, so easy to understand the thinking and very applicable to help you make investing decisions. Would love to see Robin back again soon!