The Business Cycle in Abnormal Times

Published on
August 22nd, 2017
Topic
Asia, Global Outlook, Investment Framework
Duration
36 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies, Commodities

The Business Cycle in Abnormal Times

The Interview ·
Featuring Robin Griffiths

Published on: August 22nd, 2017 • Duration: 36 minutes • Asset Class: Equities, Currencies, Commodities • Topic: Asia, Global Outlook, Investment Framework

Robin Griffiths has over 50 years’ experience in the markets and is a true expert on long term business cycles and technical analysis. In this interview, Robin explains how he applies his unique framework to the world around us and what factors, in his eyes, present a danger to investors. Find out what markets are overvalued or fully valued and why people only stay on top of the mountain long enough to take a photograph. Filmed on August 14, 2017, in London.

Comments

  • JA
    John A.
    29 September 2017 @ 22:47
    Robin - if in FAANG, the first A is for Amazon and the other A is for Alphabet, then what is the G for?
  • V!
    Volatimothy !.
    22 September 2017 @ 19:02
    I'm a cycles guy. Loved the interview.
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    6 September 2017 @ 13:21
    Last year - October 2016 S&P chart and October 1987 S&P chart looked exactly the same too and what happened? NOTHING -- difference now and 1987 is we have world wide Goldman Sachs Central Bank collusion and I believe nothing wil happen and my logic is that because everyone everyone everyone is predicting this crash - it won't happen. Crash will happen when least expected - hedge your bets.
  • TK
    Tyler K.
    2 September 2017 @ 19:00
    Great insight and commentary. As the interview concluded the world debt burden was mentioned...would LOVE to hear his thoughts on that!
  • CM
    Chris M.
    2 September 2017 @ 15:43
    One of the best interviews I have seen on the site. Not selling a position, but good analysis of current markets.
  • MC
    M C.
    1 September 2017 @ 14:22
    Really good. Listening to people who have been through multiple market cycles across a long history is always and everywhere useful and interesting
  • NR
    Nuno R.
    31 August 2017 @ 08:09
    Great interview, it's like sitting on a classroom in a top business school.
    • NR
      Nuno R.
      31 August 2017 @ 08:25
      But his assessment that the demand for oil is shrinking it's not correct... demand is actually quite strong despite the bear narrative and the arrival (on a very small scale) of electric cars
  • RE
    Rob E.
    30 August 2017 @ 21:33
    Tim - if you'd bought the us market in 1964, you had to wait until1994 to be back at the same level...
  • WM
    Will M.
    26 August 2017 @ 15:19
    Excellent. Such an experienced investment practitioner. I like ECU reports too.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    25 August 2017 @ 12:25
    an insert of his overlay chart would have been appreciated
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    25 August 2017 @ 12:12
    Robin you are an absolute legend! Thanks for the great interview.
  • RG
    Richard G.
    25 August 2017 @ 04:14
    Excellent interview. Thank you very much!
  • TS
    Todd S.
    25 August 2017 @ 00:41
    Well done gentlemen! Tremendous value
  • CC
    Charnes C.
    24 August 2017 @ 21:24
    Great interview. I'm trying to wrap my head around markets, cycles and how they relate to each other. I created a website to connect with others in the investing community. I am not selling anything and simply want to throw my ideas "out there" for critic / comment. As a practicing physician, no one around me seems the least bit interested in markets, debt, cycles, money, gold, etc. Thanks in advance. https://www.golddowcycles.com/
    • MS
      Matt S.
      25 August 2017 @ 12:24
      so join some forums, there are about 1 million of them
  • CS
    C S.
    24 August 2017 @ 06:46
    Thanks for this interview, Grant.
  • SH
    Stu H.
    23 August 2017 @ 21:16
    Superb, Robin is one of my favourite interviewees. It's a minor complaint but please reconsider the camera angles and production effects. Your quality of guests and content speaks for itself, no need for distractions.
  • RM
    R M.
    23 August 2017 @ 17:38
    What a logical thinker with lots of experience. Excellent! Robin: What happens to the Asian markets if the US has a 1987 event? Grant: Can't you find more comfy chairs and go a bit longer with folks like this?
    • JS
      Jessica S. | Contributor
      30 August 2017 @ 22:00
      We expect all markets will fall in a de-risking scenario like 1987, as they are all correlated. However, after such a fall we would see Asian markets higher in 3-5 years as they remain in secular uptrend whereas most Western markets are in secular downtrend. Also, cheaper markets should fall less as they have a valuation cushion. India is trading on a slight premium rating, so is vulnerable on that basis, but it would only make for a more attractive long term buying opportunity as it's the one we like the most as a long term holding. I have a chart that demonstrates this - email me at Jessica.scott@ecugroup.com and I will send it to you!
  • JS
    Jessica S. | Contributor
    23 August 2017 @ 15:49
    For more information on Robin's work please visit www.globalinvestmentroadmap.com
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    23 August 2017 @ 04:56
    Agree with many of the comments already made regarding Robin's wisdom and clarity. Also loved many of the old-school British idioms and turns of phrase. A very jolly gentleman indeed! One thing I'd add is that although he talked about his inclination / focus on technical analysis, I was struck by how many value-investing based statements he was making, talking about "toppiness" of US market, promise and prospects of the Indian one, etc. And I am seeing exactly what he is...we are squarely in the calm before the storm. Batten down the hatches, ladies and gents, it could be a bumpy one.
  • CW
    Chad W.
    23 August 2017 @ 04:03
    I think we really need a good explanation of what a debt jubilee would mean exactly, at least I do, or if such a thing is even possible. I have friends who when we have debates on the level of debt in this world will always fall back on the "Debt jubilee" solution as if it will fix everything. There has to be some consequences at the end of all of this or we now live in a world where 2+2=5 P.S. Tis but a scratch. The Black Knight always triumphs!
    • PN
      Philip N.
      23 August 2017 @ 06:19
      I would be interested in hearing about the debt jubilee as well. The thing I always wonder is how will they accommodate the people who did everything right and lived within their means. Will they be thrown under the bus yet again to save the wastrels.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      23 August 2017 @ 15:23
      If it's deemed a short term benefit to the ruling elite, the prudent will certainly be thrown under the bus.
    • MM
      Mario M.
      24 August 2017 @ 03:05
      You can't talk about Debt Jubilee and not mention Steven Keen. ;-) http://www.afr.com/markets/steve-keen-rebel-economist-with-a-cause-20170104-gtluez
    • MO
      Mike O.
      4 September 2017 @ 21:14
      Actually, the RVTV interview that Steve Keen had with Michael Hudson (Rebel Economists Unpick Historical Path to Global Recovery on Nov. 22, 2016) discussed a debt jubilee (among a great deal of other fascinating economic history and philosophy). I loved it (probably because I am largely ignorant in this area and most of what they discussed was new to me) and I thought the historic context they provided was fascinating and the impact of the jubilee (i.e., on those holding the debt) was far less (in my opinion) than I had earlier imagined. HIghly recommend giving it a listen.
  • B
    Bob .
    23 August 2017 @ 03:34
    Would love to see him back to discuss the debt jubilee. Excellent Session. Thanks.
  • CW
    Chad W.
    23 August 2017 @ 03:19
    Jolly Good!!!
  • EH
    Emil H.
    23 August 2017 @ 02:00
    Like Grant points out, 52 years as an active market participant is extraordinary. Love the thoughtfulness and perspective on both long term and short term trends and cycles. Fantastic.
  • KD
    Ken D.
    23 August 2017 @ 01:49
    Wonderful!!!!
  • PR
    Paolo R.
    23 August 2017 @ 00:36
    Fantastic, I wish he could've elaborated a bit more on the debt jubilee... :)
  • CH
    Colin H.
    23 August 2017 @ 00:23
    Grant is a talented interviewer. I've noticed this in the last while. He makes it look easy.
  • CR
    Charlie R.
    22 August 2017 @ 23:44
    Appreciate this sage wisdom from someone who sailed these seas in all types of conditions! No doubt my confirmation bias added to my enjoyment! 😉
  • AK
    Alexander K.
    22 August 2017 @ 20:19
    Superb interview Grant. Love tapping into these old school thinkers.
  • JM
    John M.
    22 August 2017 @ 20:13
    Enjoy hearing the perspective of these 'old warriors' (another is Victor Sperandeo) who have actual experience of a number of very different financial environments.
  • GC
    Gary C.
    22 August 2017 @ 19:16
    Deep,deep wisdom from the oracle of London...thank you..
  • RA
    Robert A.
    22 August 2017 @ 18:14
    Ba da Bing, pithy and concise. Can't wait to see his debt jubilee analysis---a few REALLY smart people have move this topic from the fantasy stage to the "well, of course" stage.
  • ag
    anthony g.
    22 August 2017 @ 17:52
    Real pleasure - hope he can come back.
  • EH
    Edwin H.
    22 August 2017 @ 17:46
    When I watch CNBC I believe the quote from Billy Madison sums it up "At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul." When I watch Real Vision, I believe the opposite. This was one of the top 5 interviews for sure. I believe in his thesis on current markets and it will be interesting to see how all this bad debt will unfold...
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    22 August 2017 @ 16:57
    He reminded me of "Coleman" the butler in the Eddie Murphy / Dan Akroyd movie "Trading Places"
    • MS
      Matt S.
      25 August 2017 @ 12:11
      I always thought Dan Akroyd's character's posh girlfriend was so hot in those white panties..... :)
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    22 August 2017 @ 16:51
    this guy is always a very clear speaker
  • ET
    Ed T.
    22 August 2017 @ 16:29
    Outstanding interview and a very interesting discussion. Great work guys.
  • TH
    Tim H.
    22 August 2017 @ 16:08
    The first 15 seconds or so was enough for me to stop watching - overlaying 1987 charts with the current year happens pretty much every year that I have been following markets.... It is not analysis, it is lazy scaremongering.
    • TH
      Tim H.
      22 August 2017 @ 16:13
      Apologies if that comes across as disrespectful, am now watching the whole video having read up on him. Still, the highlight at the start does him no favours!
    • TH
      Tim H.
      22 August 2017 @ 20:27
      A waste of 35 minutes really, nothing new. 7 down arrows on the first comment, does that mean some RVTV viewers actually think a chart of '87 overlaid onto 2017 is good analysis? No wonder RV started up their publications service....
    • IO
      Igor O.
      23 August 2017 @ 15:56
      I just waisted 12 seconds of my life i am not getting back reading your comments
    • TH
      Tim H.
      23 August 2017 @ 21:10
      Sorry to hear that Igor, I was looking forward to your intelligent thoughts on why overlaying the 1987 stock chart with 2017 was worthwhile analysis. I assume you do not have a coherent answer.
    • MS
      Matt S.
      25 August 2017 @ 12:09
      When will you be appearing as a guest on RVTV, Tim?
    • WM
      Will M.
      26 August 2017 @ 14:47
      Tim, you sound like a younger man with limited experience. I hope thats true or else you have embarrassed yourself.
    • TH
      Tim H.
      29 August 2017 @ 16:50
      Not sure how I have embarrassed myself. We all know there is a bubble that has been forming for many years, RVTV have been telling us since day one and encouraging us to 'take risk off the table'.... If you had told the average RVTV guest at the start of 2016 that the UK would vote to leave and Trump would become president, they would have all (or the vast majority) suggested selling stocks big time.... Point is, even if they had known exactly what was going to happen politically, they still would have had markets completely wrong. Why listen?
  • PN
    Philip N.
    22 August 2017 @ 13:17
    Grant said "We are almost out of time" and I thought "No I have lots of time for this keep going."
  • JV
    Jason V.
    22 August 2017 @ 11:37
    Extraordinary. Wisdom and experience, presented with perfect clarity. A wonderful role model for all investors. Please bring Robin back soon for a much longer interview!
    • us
      ujjwal s.
      22 August 2017 @ 17:06
      Completely agree!
    • BS
      Baldev S.
      23 August 2017 @ 12:38
      Love people like Robin, so easy to understand the thinking and very applicable to help you make investing decisions. Would love to see Robin back again soon!

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