The Future of Crypto Investment

Published on
June 8th, 2018
Topic
Bitcoin, Technology, Investment Framework
Duration
60 minutes
Asset class
Crypto-currencies

The Future of Crypto Investment

The Interview ·
Featuring Dan Morehead, Joey Krug

Published on: June 8th, 2018 • Duration: 60 minutes • Asset Class: Crypto-currencies • Topic: Bitcoin, Technology, Investment Framework

Dan Morehead and Joey Krug of the blockchain investment fund Pantera Capital sit down with Michael Green of Thiel Macro. The group explores the current state of cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and the current investment environment. In addition, Morehead and Krug look ahead to the future of distributed ledger technology to explore how smart contracts will create value for users and investors by reducing transaction costs and eliminating middlemen. Filmed on May 22, 2018 in San Francisco.

Comments

  • PS
    Panos S.
    6 March 2019 @ 20:18
    Joey sold Augur's 1M ETH at 0,7$ https://cryptoslate.com/augur-sold-1-million-ethereum-at-0-7-why-experts-say-it-was-the-right-decision/
  • RK
    Robert K.
    16 December 2018 @ 15:41
    I guess you are not going to invite these idiots again ...
  • pc
    paulo c.
    11 November 2018 @ 16:19
    https://www.chepicap.com/en/news/5068/deltec-bank-denies-involvement-in-venezuelan-money-laundering-case.html
  • LC
    Lloyd C.
    28 July 2018 @ 07:41
    ethereum will most likely scale to thousands of transactions per second by the end of 2018 with plasma.
  • PT
    Patrick T.
    23 July 2018 @ 02:55
    Visa processes on average 1,700 transactions per second with the capability of up to 24,000 per second. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) capacity is 7 transactions per second. It appears Bitcoin is not scalable. Maybe Eos (EOS) with a capability of 50,000 transactions per second is more long term viable. Possible EOS and RIPPLE are worthy of small bets with potential of 1000X return on original investment due to scalability.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    29 June 2018 @ 08:30
    @ 29.06.2018: With BTC < $6K I would pay money to see these guys mumbling again.
  • TJ
    Tracy J.
    19 June 2018 @ 13:53
    Portfolio perspective is super important.
  • MY
    Michael Y.
    15 June 2018 @ 23:05
    I'm a fan of blockchain technology. But I don't buy that an anonymous ledger, even if it's a written ledger, is actually a deterrent for criminal behavior. Anyone else?
  • bs
    bob s.
    14 June 2018 @ 18:32
    RV- WHERE ARE THE CHARTS? SUPPORT? RESISTANCE? HISTORICAL COMPARISON? THE LEVEL LIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT? DAN HAD SO MUCH MORE TO SAY, PLEASE LET THE MAN SPEAK OFFENSIVELY NOT DEFENSIVELY THANK YOU MIKE
  • MF
    Michael F.
    13 June 2018 @ 20:35
    Mike Green is so negative on cryptocurrency that it sours all the interviews by him. Can he have a more neutral standpoint in the interviews so that he can engage in discussion from a neutral instead of negative position? Topics focused on drugs and money laundering is very 2013 of him.
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      16 June 2018 @ 14:55
      Thank you for this feedback. I’m sorry that I come across so negatively, as that is certainly not my perception or intent. I’m a big fan of both Dan and Joey and consider myself as “withholding judgement” on crypto at this point. Bitcoin, and general “proof of work” systems, I am skeptical on; the facts around state level money laundering and the inherent inefficiencies are (in my opinion) indisputable. Ethereum and other smart tokens/contracts seem to contain significant FUTURE potential, but to date I have yet to see a compelling CURRENT use case. As I have mentioned elsewhere, I own crypto in a small enough size that I’m “ambivalent” — won’t make me rich, won’t result in meaningful loss if it goes to zero. The whole point is “get to neutral”.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    13 June 2018 @ 16:17
    Sorry for being ignorant, but if bitcoin has the historical records for forensic accounting (block chain), how can some users get robbed of their bitcoin without recourse? Stolen wallets should be easily recovered
    • GW
      Greg W.
      13 June 2018 @ 18:37
      Bitcoin aren't registered on something like a real estate registry where there is an authority to return property to a rightful owner after fraud is discovered. You can perhaps identify exactly where they are stolen and where they go after but they can't be obtained and returned to the rightful owner because there is no central authority. Also owners hand their bitcoin over to exchanges in order to have liquidity and tradability, so they hand over their ownership I believe in a sense, and that's where the vulnerability lies. The bitcoin are stolen from and sometime by the exchange companies.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      15 June 2018 @ 14:11
      A wallet has never been stolen. The contents of a wallet have been redirected to a different wallet elsewhere when thefts from exchanges have taken place. This may seem like semantics, but it's an important distinction. The Bitcoin network has never been successfully hacked. Exchanges have been hacked. If you don't know the difference, I'd recommend exploring Bitcoin with a tiny amount of money you don't care about. You'll understand the distinction very quickly once you've done this.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    12 June 2018 @ 15:59
    very interesting arguments on the Visa/Mastercard situation; these two companies profit so strongly from the oligopolistic market structure which gives them annuity returns, high FCF yields thus have become stock market darlings. would be great to get more info whether these companies can be disrupted in what time frame (soon or long patience required). I would not mind very soon disruption...; out of curiosity, in Switzerland, someone wants to bring the land/title register on to the blockchain, a move which I would view very positively. are there any similar moves elsewhere?
    • PD
      Pat D.
      14 June 2018 @ 08:05
      Matthias, the U.A.E are going in for Blockchain in a significant manner https://cointelegraph.com/news/uae-government-launches-blockchain-strategy-2021
  • BK
    Brian K.
    11 June 2018 @ 15:59
    I like Mike Greens quote of viewing a nations currency as its equity.
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    11 June 2018 @ 12:51
    It is when the next financial crisis happens and people are locked out of their bank accounts that they will see the power of crypto and bitcoin (think Greece and Cyprus). Outside of precious metals there is no other escape from the corrupt debt based fractional reserve monetary system the world is trapped in -- Also, there are like 3 billion people in the world that are unbanked -- that alone should get someone to take 1 percent of their net worth into crypto -- the risk reward is insane. As far as the criminal activity in bitcoin LOL!!! OMG banks have committed more fraud and crimes and nothing happens to them. Under federal and state laws known as civil forfeiture, police can seize cash or property if they suspect it's tied to an illegal activity even if the property owner isn't charged with a crime -- Supreme Court has upheld this. I am sorry I do not trust governments (who in their right mind would) and am glad there is a place I can hold some of my wealth outside of their reach.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      11 June 2018 @ 13:42
      And this is exactly why Bitcoin was created and how it should be used! I am afraid that the push by Novogratz-es and the wall-streeters of the world did more damage than good to the original proposition (inviting government scrutiny and regulation which goes against the grain of the idea).
    • TJ
      Terry J.
      11 June 2018 @ 13:52
      Totally agree with your argument Kathleen. Unless you trust banks 100%, you would be crazy not to hold at least a small percentage of your wealth in digital assets as well as physical gold and silver. We may all need the latter (and naturally stored somewhere safe and secret which excludes banking safe deposits) just in case the Dimon's of this world succeed in somehow outlawing or controlling bitcoin, and the other cryptos.
  • SR
    Steve R.
    11 June 2018 @ 09:51
    Yet another bitcoin hack: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/11/bitcoin-price-cryptocurrency-hacked-south-korea-coincheck
    • IB
      Ian B.
      11 June 2018 @ 11:15
      Bitcoin hasn’t been hacked, please get your facts right.
    • SB
      Salvatore B.
      14 June 2018 @ 22:29
      Bitcoin was not hacked. If a bank was robbed, would anyone's reaction be "dollars are too dangerous to hold?"
  • PD
    Paul D.
    11 June 2018 @ 07:49
    Bitcoin is doing EXACTLY what is did since the late 2013 high. It drops 70%, rallies 100% then drops 76.4%....it's heading to $2,800. Don't take my word for it, have a look at the charts now and then. Same play, new actors.
  • PS
    Paul S.
    11 June 2018 @ 02:43
    Solving problems that don't exist, oh and we expect it to be hacked... awesome Valued at $360m apparently - a touch less than Dogecoin, a crypto based on a meme
  • AG
    Andrew G.
    11 June 2018 @ 00:04
    Hey RV, could we maybe do a bit more of a technical/tradable look at crypto next? This along with John Burbank's section was very general discussion with rehashed netscape/internet analogies, removing middle men which offer nothing new. Focus is always on the transaction coins (admittedly there was more on smart contracts here) but what about other industries for blockchain: decentralized data, personal data, computing power, energy, supply chain etc? Thanks for all the great work and love the new style!
    • HO
      H2 O.
      11 June 2018 @ 00:25
      Yes please.
  • HO
    H2 O.
    10 June 2018 @ 21:01
    I have been a crypto skeptic and don't really buy the "new asset class" argument. But this is not going to develop in a linear fashion. It is going to explode in terms of use when certain enabling conditions are met. Too important to write it off. Even if these discussions don't have much that is revelatory to the well informed on the subject, they still provide clues as to directions to follow for derivative trades that are a function of the disruption ahead.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    10 June 2018 @ 16:05
    Always great to hear different ideas, opinions, and back-and-forth like this, especially on the topic of cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technologies.
  • TA
    Trevor A.
    10 June 2018 @ 08:57
    I enjoyed this interview. One growing use case for assets on blockchains is the tokenization of scarce digital assets in video game economies. This use case makes game items into digital bearer assets. World of Warcraft gold was an early example of this concept but blockchains are enabling the concept to grow even further. Digital game items and currencies potentially have value if game curators can manage supply effectively and there is sufficient demand for scarce game items/currencies from users. This has already started with in-game item purchases for games such as Fortnite. The next frontier to monetize in-game item purchases is to tokenize game items that can be used with third-party platforms. This is happening in an inefficient manner today with the CS:GO game skin gambling economy. I know it sounds wild but a google search will show this use case is potentially worth billions of dollars. The main value of cryptocurrency is capital flight. I think Bitcoin and Monero will be the big winners. Satoshi Nakamoto put the following message in the genesis block of Bitcoin:: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." Central banks have created conditions and sentiment that allowed Bitcoin to bootstrap. Without extreme monetary policy Bitcoin likely never reaches a critical mass. Bitcoin and Gold are complementary assets because multisig wallets will reduce counterparty risk.
  • ET
    Eduard T.
    10 June 2018 @ 08:12
    great interview. Thanks RV
  • JR
    Jeremy R.
    10 June 2018 @ 06:10
    I love Mr. G interviews! The way he thinks about the world is so fascinating. He needs to get his own segment like Grant! Keep up the great work!
  • TH
    Timo H.
    10 June 2018 @ 04:19
    It is completely possible, that cryptocurrencies don't have any value in 5 years.
    • TA
      Trevor A.
      10 June 2018 @ 04:38
      that is lazy analysis.
    • TH
      Timo H.
      10 June 2018 @ 17:45
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtZHbBltTts&feature=youtu.be The use case about combining transaction management and identity management ledgers mentioned in the video is this:  https://www.tieto.com/news/blockchain-technologies-enable-new-businesses-to-have-a-fully-digital-identity
  • SR
    Steve R.
    10 June 2018 @ 01:12
    Michael made a very valid point regarding the 70%+ (and growing) concentration of miners being in China. A point that has significance going forward, and yet one that both Joey and Dan conveniently glossed over.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      11 June 2018 @ 13:51
      Absolutely right and together with the concentration of the miners (the top 5 pools have more than 50% of the hashrate capacity) it is becoming a systematic problem. Obviously those pools are in China because of the energy cost - the Chinese government subsidizes (willingly or not) the mining and infrastructure of Bitcoin. In a way they are really smart about it because they understood you cannot fight it. So they settled for a "majority share" in the infrastructure. Amazing and frightening at the same time.
  • my
    moy y.
    9 June 2018 @ 20:49
    Dear RV, would like to hear which ICO or blockchain project or token/crypto Mr. Pal thinks has potential.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      11 June 2018 @ 13:52
      :) a gambler hey?
  • EL
    Eugene L.
    9 June 2018 @ 17:28
    I absolutely appreciate how thoughtful Michael and Dan are. Joey is cool too. Thanks RV!
  • MT
    Mike T.
    9 June 2018 @ 15:10
    always interesting to learn, but right now in the present day my $0.02 yesterday /BTC Futures did 1300 contracts for the entire day and /XBT just under 2000 contracts and with no Options market either at the moment looks like there's only negligible 'real money' at work, but if that were to change in the future........ Until we see serious liquidity not the place to be focusing on to make money and that's what were all here for isn't it?
  • SS
    Steve S.
    9 June 2018 @ 11:58
    I really would have loved their opinions on Hashgraph, the supposed 'Blockchain Killer'
  • IB
    Ian B.
    9 June 2018 @ 10:09
    Please do more interviews like this, I cannot ignore the number of high profile finance professionals moving across to crypto and DLT companies. Seems like this is a once in a 1000 year opportunity
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    9 June 2018 @ 09:22
    A question to everybody out there who knows more about cryptos and blockchain than I do (so basically everybody...): is there actually a real life application for cryptos for Joe Sixpack who does not live in a 3rd world country? I owned bitcoin at some point and it was a pain in the a.. to make any use of them. So, is there something nowerdays which would make my life easier if I used cryptos? Answers very much appreciated.
    • PG
      Petter G.
      9 June 2018 @ 11:22
      From my response to Nick D further below: "I believe that the number one use case today (the only one really) is an asset uncorrelated to the golbal markets. An asset that have the *potential* of retaining value even if the global financial system should come under severe stress. Gold have for a long time had this role, but I think that a highly liquid, digital version of it might also be really attractive to a lot of investors. The rest of the use cases (transactions, prediction markets, tokenized securities etc) will become really interesting in the years to come, but I don't think these are investable ideas at this point. We're simply too early and the current alternatives are still good enough. The use cases are there, but the demand is not (yet). Therefore, I believe that betting on anything other than Bitcoin and (perhaps) Ethereum is not recommended."
    • EL
      Eugene L.
      9 June 2018 @ 16:59
      When the mainframe computer first came out, the only use case that the engineers could come up with was "Well, I guess people could do their finances on it"
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      9 June 2018 @ 19:25
      Thanks guys. Bitcoin is now 9 years old. How long did it take for mainframe computing to have a first real life Application?
  • SS
    Steve S.
    9 June 2018 @ 08:34
    Mike Green and Grant Williams are the best interviewers on Real Vision.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    9 June 2018 @ 05:46
    Do a lot more interviews like this!
  • KS
    Kim S.
    9 June 2018 @ 05:30
    good interview. not my choice of investment but I appreciate the perspective
  • RI
    R I.
    9 June 2018 @ 03:10
    Michael Green is smart. Not sure about the other guys.
  • SI
    Sundar I.
    9 June 2018 @ 00:20
    Excellent interview. With Michael asking all the perfect spot on questions, its amazing how the world is just shifting right before our eyes. keep up the excellent work RV. As always enjoyed this video as well.
  • RP
    Ryan P.
    8 June 2018 @ 23:22
    I'm surprised XRP (ripple) didn't come up during the cross-border payment discussion. Great interview, keep the crypto content coming!
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    8 June 2018 @ 23:13
    Great to get an update on this new asset class. I think any of us who ignore or dismiss cryptos are potentially missing a huge opportunity. As Dan says the risk reward is assymetric so why would anybody with a pragmatic attitude to investment not have at least a minimal exposure? Unfortunately too many people are happy to buy the negative propoganda of yesterday's winners like Jamie Dimon and Charlie Munger for whom the answer to the question of will bitcoin go to zero or a million will never matter! For most of the rest of us, we want to listen to the pros and cons of the narrative. Thanks RVTV for giving this important new asset class airtime. I would welcome more informative videos like this on cryptos.
  • PM
    Plan M.
    8 June 2018 @ 22:25
    Mike Novogratz on Cryptocurrencies by Bloomberg: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1zqKVrjdqVWKB helps to state what should be obvious...how can you rationally not allocate at least a single digit percentage of your portfolio to a technology (blockchain) that has proveable working models that once scaled have massive disruption capabilities to financial markets, consumer markets, et al. The asymmetric potential is historic. Position size your investments and participate. Outstanding interview and Michael is the man for the interviewing job...Morehead and Krug are the spokesman for crypto state of the union addresses. Well done RV.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      10 June 2018 @ 13:55
      Well one cannot forget Novogratz is exposed as f---k to this theme and is talking his book.
  • MM
    Mak M.
    8 June 2018 @ 18:53
    Real Vision thank you for this interview!
  • PT
    Patrick T.
    8 June 2018 @ 18:35
    TZERO ? (OSTK)
  • SS
    Sam S.
    8 June 2018 @ 18:30
    Now that I've listened/watched the interview, pretty much believe we've been provided an incredible amount of information and a better understanding of crypto and blockchain. So much is concept and mental understanding vs something we can hold in our hands and connect the dots. I'm impressed with all of it and all of them.
  • KD
    Kevin D.
    8 June 2018 @ 18:18
    Oh boy.... Let me channel Mr. Miyagi: "walk on right side of road, fine. Walk on left side of road, fine. Walk in middle of road, splat!" This interview was middle of road, with nothing we haven't heard a dozen times already, offering frankly very little for crypto 'newbies' or crypto 'veterans', or even those who think crypto is crap. Just a big tub of vanilla ice cream, with no actionable questions or information in any of those directions. This could have been on the 'Today' show.
    • GP
      Gordon P.
      10 June 2018 @ 01:11
      Well Kevin, glad you told us the type of programs you watch, so keep watching the Today Show and enjoy your ice cream
  • SS
    Sam S.
    8 June 2018 @ 17:20
    With all the comments by RV subscribers and Mr. Pal asking everyone to be open minded, I now read the comments and replies FIRST before listening to the interview. Seems to work for an open perspective no matter how it goes.
    • PD
      Pat D.
      14 June 2018 @ 07:51
      ditto ..... I have started to do the same Sam
  • MC
    Minum C.
    8 June 2018 @ 16:52
    Yuck! Yet another crypto currency discussion. I wonder what percentage of RV watchers are active participants in the crypto currency market? More Grant Williams please.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      8 June 2018 @ 19:44
      Go to bed grandad
    • MC
      Minum C.
      9 June 2018 @ 15:34
      Relax Tito. Grandad's support is what you'll need after your crypto speculations blow up.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      9 June 2018 @ 20:17
      Hehe amusing reply. I like you already. In many ways i concur with the sentiment that there's nothing tanglible here. Most of it will go to nothing, and if anyones truly relying on anything digital and elec/web goes down they're gonna be shit outta luck.. But distributed ledger technologies are a phase change and won't be forgotten. Investment titans like John Burbank and Dan Morehead are likely right to be getting into this early imho. And it is very early. But when there are valid use cases and suitable crypto asset(s) to serve them it will blow up (in a good way). Burbank' metaphor of a slowly developing picture seems really apt to me. I watch with interest.
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    8 June 2018 @ 16:09
    I don't know where this is going to go. And let me let you in on a little secret. Neither do you. One thing I know to be true, that has played out throughout history over and over across several different landscapes, be it political, economic, science and technology, etc is the following... It only takes about .00001% percent of the RIGHT part of the population to get on board with an idea whose time has come. ( 1.) The colonies should declare independence from Great Britain (The American Revolution) , 2.) Free men should not be able to be imprisoned or whimsically taxed by the king (The Magna Carta) 3.) Powered flight is possible (The Wright Brothers, etc) 4.) Racial discrimination should not be supported by the state (Martin Luther King) 4.) The Catholic Church is not only not infallible, but is corrupt and we need to split from it (Martin Luther) 5.) It is stupid to build a rocket, launch it, and then crash into the ocean (Elon Musk) etc. etc. etc. All that being said I think I can make the following statement with absolute confidence. *** Given the perceived injustice and full display of avarice perpetrated by the global central banks, the banking/finance guild/medical guild (to include healthcare, insurance, drug companies etc), the global political class, and the amount of leverage/debt and soon to be unfulfilled social contract promises and the corresponding counterparty risk/chain of custody issues AND given the GLOBAL talent pool that is lining up behind ico's/blockchain in all its use cases to think that revolutionary change is not only possible but imminent would seem very likely to be a suckers bet. It is worth keeping in mind that MOST of the rational sounding population will dismiss this idea out of hand. People that are "rational' in a fucked up world are in effect the radicals and mean reversion both illustrates this in hindsight, and prunes their belief systems and all the structures and constructs that those flawed belief systems were supporting from existence. The current global situation seems to be very near full term pregnant with crisis and opportunity.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      14 June 2018 @ 15:10
      Agree with you that innovation comes from or needs to be embraced by the the .00001% of the population. But please have an honest look at the population that has adopted bitcoin now after almost a decade after it's creation. Ain't pretty.
  • MC
    Mike C.
    8 June 2018 @ 15:44
    Great interview. Please have Dan and Joey back in 6 months. Really looking forward to it...
  • NG
    Nick G.
    8 June 2018 @ 14:48
    I don't understand it. Any of it. For every statement they make, I have 100s of residual questions. I guess I am just too old. I probably will never understand, even if I sat down with the greatest experts for days. But one thing they said makes perfect sense. It is an incredibly asymmetric vehicle. Put 1% of NAV and forget about it. Look again in a year. Add as/if necessary.
    • MG
      Michael G. | Contributor
      8 June 2018 @ 17:28
      Nick, please post your questions and maybe we can actually get them answered. As should be clear, I am skeptical of crypto currencies; however my awareness of my fallibility encourages me to learn more and invest from a "neutral" position which is similar to the concept of "buy 1%"... it's less than that for me, but nonetheless an important area to be able to explore without the inherent skepticism of "no position", inherent bearishness of "reflexively short speculation" and inherent bullishness of "overallocation"
    • NG
      Nick G.
      8 June 2018 @ 17:54
      Well, MG, thank you for the offer. Lets start with the most basic thing: I understand the blockchain. Its use makes sense to me. It has many advantages. But what is the connection between the blockchain and bitcoin and why should the value of bitcoin rise or fall with the use of the blockchain?
    • DB
      David B.
      8 June 2018 @ 18:47
      Nick, my simple answer for why bitcoin has value is that it is required to secure the bitcoin blockchain. The more the blockchain is used the more demand there is for bitcoin and thus the value goes up. This relationship holds true for any public blockchain and its associated token. Private blockchains are centrally controlled and secured so do not require a token.
    • NG
      Nick G.
      8 June 2018 @ 19:36
      David, thank you for your answer. That presupposes that the recipient of the bitcoin keeps it as bitcoin, surely? My logic is this: two parties employ blockchain to transact. Let's call them Mr. A and Mr. B. Mr A. buys bitcoins and sells US$. He transfers his bitcoins to Mr. B as payment for transaction. Mr. B now has bitcoins and sells them for US$. This transaction is value neutral for bitcoin itself. Or not?
    • DB
      David B.
      8 June 2018 @ 19:52
      Nick, each of those transactions requires a small amount of bitcoin to transact. Thus, higher transaction volume results in higher demand for bitcoin to fund transactions. The "miners" that verify each batch of transactions gets paid in bitcoin. But this answer is very simplistic and only one driver of its value. The value of bitcoin grows as it becomes more and more adopted, right? Adoption of a token is related to the utility of its underlying blockchain and network. If the blockchain / network is valuable, it will be adopted by more users who will then acquire the token. Tokens represent "skin in the game" for the blockchain and the tokens are crucial to incentivize the right behaviors and dissuade malicious actors from behaving badly by inflicting financial loss (ie. they lose their skin in the game).
    • PG
      Petter G.
      9 June 2018 @ 09:00
      @Nick: 'Blockchain' is just a fancy word for a distributed database (practically speaking an append-only database). So your question as to why the price of Bitcoin would go up as blockchain adoption rises is actually not that relevant. Bitcoin adoption affects the bitcoin price, not the number of blockchains around the world. With that said, I believe that the number one use case today (the only one really) is an asset uncorrelated to the golbal markets. An asset that have the *potential* of retaining value even if the global financial system should come under severe stress. Gold have for a long time had this role, but I think that a highly liquid, digital version of it might also be really attractive to a lot of investors. The rest of the use cases (transactions, prediction markets, tokenized securities etc) will become really interesting in the years to come, but I don't think these are investable ideas at this point. We're simply too early and the current alternatives are still good enough. The use cases are there, but the demand is not (yet). Therefore, I believe that betting on anything other than Bitcoin and (perhaps) Ethereum is not recommended.
    • RJ
      Ryan J.
      10 June 2018 @ 08:04
      I have a related question. What drives the value of ETH, NEO, ADA, EOS that are described as the "gas" that powers their respective blockchains? Surely these coins need to remain low in value to encourage developers to build apps that are low cost per transaction? I understand that a different set of dynamics will drive the value of "currency" coins like Bitcoin, Stellar, Ripple etc - welcome any thoughts
  • EL
    Elizabeth L.
    8 June 2018 @ 14:29
    Respectfully, just a reminder to MR Robert K., please be respectful to those who contribute their time to RV to provide us information. We as subscribers truly appreciate the generosity of our contributors. Thank you.
    • GO
      Greg O.
      8 June 2018 @ 15:06
      While I just happen to think alike Robert K, respectfully allow me to make a comment regarding "contributors". If you haven't noticed already, many (and I really mean MANY) of the guests on RV, the so called "contributors" are just peddlers of something. Some are trying to make a name for their advisory/research/market-letters/fund/management, some are peddling gold, some are peddling cryptos. Paying subscribers are entitled to say what they think especially towards the "peddlers", provided proper language is used. One can appreciate i.e. Kyle Bass, Felix Zulauf and number of other individuals on RV that really "contribute" as opposed to peddling their own case or services. My $0.02 worth
  • DB
    David B.
    8 June 2018 @ 14:26
    I strongly disagree with what Robert & Brian posted. I have been following the crypto / blockchain space for 4 years and investing in it for nearly 3 years. I am seeing enormous amounts of financial & human capital, investor interest and passion flood this industry. Unless you are seeing the amount of work going on behind the scenes, it is easy to dismiss this stuff as frivolous or even "rat poison". However, Jamie Dimon just said that technology is the #1 threat to JP Morgan. The technology he is thinking about is blockchain / crypto. To borrow a quote from twitter, crypto is rat poison and the banks are the rats. Ignore this space at your own peril.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      9 June 2018 @ 01:38
      Actually, I agree with you David. But if you wanted to express this view then it is short banks / long technology. This has nothing to do with cryptocurrencies.
  • RK
    Robert K.
    8 June 2018 @ 13:34
    I am fed up by this crypto babies. We had a lucky run and made some funny money on this mania but it's time to fade this. The marginal cost of creating digital assets is 0 (zero). That's approximately the correct value of most of the cryptos. Some of the majors like bitcoin indeed have value due to the existing infrastructure and penetration allowing to buy your drugs or funnel money out of banana republics. Investing in crypto currencies is the equivalent of saying let's invest in money in the real economy (who invests in '"money")? If you say not bitcoin but blockchain I say to you yeah it's like saying internet is cool let's invest in the HTTP protocol. Complete nonsense. Crypto technologies age fast as hell and the new thing kills the old thing in days - good luck picking the survivors or putting your wealth in this.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      8 June 2018 @ 13:44
      Look at the distribution of the hash rate across miners (https://blockchain.info/pools). It is a very bad state (and nobody talks about this). It means that the top 5 main pools can do whatever modifications they want to do to the blockchain if they collude. A very different situation compared to the main idea of decentralisation! The push and adoption into the mainstream media caused a complete destruction of the main proposition of bitcoin. Interesting these kids do not talk about this.
    • MM
      Mak M.
      8 June 2018 @ 18:52
      Clearly many people don't understand how cryptocurrencies works here.Ok i get that, there are many old people that don't want to learn about a new disruptive technology.Nothing wrong. But please don't just post things which are not true. Do you know what pools are and how they work? Do you know that softwares can be upgraded and always stay up to date with the latest technology?
    • SR
      Steve R.
      8 June 2018 @ 19:56
      Whenever anyone discusses crypto/bitcoin etc, they never talk about the downside or risks, it's just constant hype hype hype from those with huge vested interests!
    • RK
      Robert K.
      8 June 2018 @ 20:29
      @Mark M. "Many old people that don't want to learn about a new disruptive technology" :) Bro, I am in my 30s (so consider myself pretty young). Have PhD in AI and earned my bread in quant finance. I am able to code blockchain solutions - I am confident I know what I am talking about man. So when I see bullshit and hype I just say it.
    • IO
      Igor O.
      9 June 2018 @ 09:57
      Short it then.
    • YB
      Yuriy B.
      9 June 2018 @ 13:30
      Robert, you are a rare voice of rational thought on these RV threads. Thank you for speaking up!
    • MZ
      Martin Z.
      10 June 2018 @ 08:07
      I guess you never heard of network effects?...There's a reason why ethereum, for example, is the platform for the vast majority of ICOs and their specialized (smart contract) applications. It's the same reason you use Google and shop at Amazon. There is in fact, a much better argument for network effects with ETH or BTC than there is for either of the above. This isn't even Crypto 101, though, so before you call things "complete nonsense", at least do an hour or two of research.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      10 June 2018 @ 13:43
      My "short position" is not betting my house on this but having a minuscule option-like payout exposure. Shorting a mania is obviously suicidal. BTW: My skepticism is on the topic and perhaps inviting babies unable to grow a proper beard. Nothing wrong with the interviewer! Just do not waste more time on crypto please.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      11 June 2018 @ 14:03
      @Martin Z. "network effects" :) If you did a 5 minutes research you'd know history: wikipedia: "Network effects were used as justification for some of the dot-com business models in the late 1990s. These firms operated under the belief that when a new market comes into being which contains strong network effects, firms should care more about growing their market share than about becoming profitable. This was believed because market share will determine which firm can set technical and marketing standards and thus determine the basis of future competition." We know how it ended ...
    • JC
      Joe C.
      21 June 2018 @ 23:05
      Yes, we know how it ended. The entire concept of the internet was destroyed in Q2 2000 and no network effect-subscribing online companies survived—certainly not a brick and mortar–gobbling leviathan for which growing market share over profitability was the predominant business model. But because many dot com companies blew up, it was prudent not to speculate in any. But because many cryptocurrencies may go to zero, it would be prudent not to speculate in any. I guess I've been short term bearish on bitcoin/crypto for long enough that comments like this are starting to wake me up to taking the other side.
    • RK
      Robert K.
      22 June 2018 @ 13:28
      The world has changes since then. It became very binary so you'll better be a genius to pick up the next Amazon in the zoo of the ICOs. It is wise to appreciate the innovation but one needs search for real business impacts. I cannot see the new "protocols" (like blockchain) of this next generation internet as "the investment". Businesses delivering useful stuff to people that might use these technologies are.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    8 June 2018 @ 13:33
    We will look back at these times as textbook examples of Financial folly

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