The Startling Consequences of Monetary Policy

Published on
April 30th, 2019
Topic
Equities, Fiscal Policy, Demographics, Financial System, Pension System, Monetary policy, US Economy, Global Outlook
Duration
63 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit

The Startling Consequences of Monetary Policy

The Interview ·
Featuring Stephanie Pomboy

Published on: April 30th, 2019 • Duration: 63 minutes • Asset Class: Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit • Topic: Equities, Fiscal Policy, Demographics, Financial System, Pension System, Monetary policy, US Economy, Global Outlook

In her long-anticipated return to Real Vision, Stephanie Pomboy, founder and president of Macro Mavens, sits down with Grant Williams to discuss her global outlook after the Fed’s recent course-reversal. Pomboy and Williams take a deep dive into the significance of the gaps between various economic indicators, and discuss the implications for capital markets. They also touch on associated topics such as China, cryptocurrencies, and gold. Filmed on April 18, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • JE
    John E.
    13 May 2019 @ 17:23
    I do not see a great connection to the economy and the 10 year "bull market". Wage growth has lagged for decades. A system that bails out institutions, leaving individuals to fend for them self........
  • LB
    Louis B.
    11 May 2019 @ 23:10
    Great conversation; really enjoyed that. Sending the transcript to clients NOW!
  • WM
    Will M.
    4 May 2019 @ 15:35
    Good interview and discussion. Always find the comments interesting but always amazed at the folks out there that believe everything is fine and that there are too many negative nellies on this board. Its difficult to understand why anyone would not be deeply concerned? Add to the state and corporate pensions crisis the looming, (just starting in 2019 as SS tax receipts now do not meet outgoings), social security funding crisis, coupled with historically high stock market valuations, massive government deficits during "good times", political polarization, international tension, climate change, oh let me stop right there. Clearly I must be completely "out to lunch" to be concerned and believe I am watching financial lemmings following the leader.
  • CH
    Connor H.
    3 May 2019 @ 16:50
    Wonderful macro discussion again from Stephanie. Very easy on the eyes as well.
  • CG
    Christine G.
    3 May 2019 @ 02:37
    I would like a little more reflection. For example there is no relationship between tax cuts and GDP e.g., https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/gop-tax-rate-cut-wealthy/, but there is an increase in the wealth of the wealthy, an increase in many people's sense that the system is rigged, and a continuing financial separation between the haves and the have-nots. But the tax cuts do increase the national debt which has become impossible and which will fall on everyone in one form or another. Frankly, I was a little disgusted that these data were not discussed. Maybe there is a reason that many people who know little about economic or market theory are calling for change?
    • KS
      Kathleen S.
      5 May 2019 @ 18:24
      Our govt is not funded by our taxes --- have you not noticed this? IF our govt would give a tax break to the middle class they could take this new found money and spend it, which would help the real economy. I think it is better govt stimulate economy by helping middle class rather than creating a safety net of food stamps and social programs when people lose their jobs and homes. All the safety net really does is make more and more people dependent on government and leaves them with no way to build themselves back up. Trump tax cuts for corporations and rich only helped equity markets and the financialized economy. Who cares if govt runs a deficit, unlike you or me - it can always print money to pay. And if inflation goes up , take money out of the economy by raising taxes. I really think the economy should be run with fiscal policy and not the monetary policy of lowering and raising interest rates like we have now.
  • KS
    Kathleen S.
    2 May 2019 @ 23:29
    Alway enjoy watching an interview with Grant and Stephanie -- two very smart perceptive people. I totally agree with everything they say - Central Banks are insane and what they have done is insane and the fact that they pretend they don't know the nightmare they have created is insane. But, you know what the bright spot in all of this Central Bank Fiat money ponzi scheme scam really is??? The knock on effect. Central Banks have abused their powers so badly that they now have ordinary people questioning WHAT IS MONEY? This simple question, sent me -not a financial person- but a math teacher- down the rabbit hole 7 years ago - it is how I found Real Vision. I bought bitcoin at $200 because I realized that money is not an absolute - money is a political question. The myth of barter? Most don’t realize, but the story you are told about the invention of money is based on a myth (nice word for a lie). Archaeologist's more than 100 years ago disproved barter myth of money creation. First writings from Babylonia are ledgers and virtual tabs, it was the state not ordinary people that created money, and the way they did it was to force people to acquire gold to pay their taxes. Gold has all the wonderful characteristics of hard money, but then again aren’t cigarettes money in prison? Money is an abstract concept - I am curious about MMT and hope Real Vision gets Stephanie Kelton on to discuss, but she has to be asked the hard questions --- how does one control a corrupt establishment that will print money to buy votes to support their own agendas? I do like the idea of MMT, but I don’t know how one gets around this essential problem and unless this problem is addressed in reality isn’t it no different than the QE negative interest rate insanity we have now.
  • RN
    Robert N.
    2 May 2019 @ 16:15
    The later parts of the video referred frequently to "dark outcomes" which got some pushback in these comments. If anyone wants to try analysing a really dark outcome try https://youtu.be/5WPB2u8EzL8 which has the approval of some significant economists.
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    2 May 2019 @ 15:02
    marijuana taxation is only going to pick up the untaxed portion of the over all use of vices minus the reduction of purchasing ability from the taxation that occurs. A few states were able to capitalize on the beginning of it but this concept that it's an end all is ridiculous. It will be a drain on saved capital of babyboomers and will not add to productivity, more likely will dampen it. I'm not against legalizing it but the arguments made for it are very unchallenged.
  • di
    david i.
    2 May 2019 @ 07:15
    Outstanding, informative and amusing notwithstanding that the end of world as we know it being just around the corner, or the one after that
  • MD
    Michael D.
    2 May 2019 @ 02:32
    Great interview. Bring her back.
  • RE
    Richard E. | Contributor
    1 May 2019 @ 19:38
    Unfunded liabilities - only 3 choices. Default - states can't go bankrupt. Restructure - Illinois tried to restructure pensions but the courts shot it down. Reflate away the notional value. Which do you think we will see?
    • DS
      David S.
      3 May 2019 @ 00:12
      The forth and most likely option is reduced pensions/government services and/or higher taxes. It is happening in the US and it certainly happened in Greece. DLS
  • rr
    rlw r.
    1 May 2019 @ 17:21
    Stephanie and Grant present and enjoy cogent chats. Thank you. Dark - Smark. A small ray on reality every now and then hurts no one.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    1 May 2019 @ 17:12
    Steph mentioned that Grant loaned her some shoes, maybe I'm old fashioned but I think they look better on Ms. Pomboy.
  • TS
    Tamara S.
    1 May 2019 @ 13:49
    Great jobs by both Stephanie and Grant. Thank you. You addressed a wide range of topics with insight and candor. The dollar discussion looked at both sides of the argument and SP still reached a clear conclusion. She disagrees with Raoul, but perhaps each of them will be right, just over different time horizons. More discussion of bad inflation would have been helpful. That is the killer scenario. If inflation rises, long rates want to go up Higher rates may trigger a bursting of the corporate debt bubble and cause problems for all debtors. That may be the recession that the Fed can't fight off with QE. Stephanie said corporate debt is $9.5 trillion, but the numbers she gave for some of the components don't add to that: $2.5 T in BBB, $2.5 T rest of investment grade, $2.4 T junk and leveraged loans. I wonder what makes up the other $2 trillion in her accounting. Total Corporate debt is $15 trillion, but that presumably includes non-traded debt (bank loans, e.g.), and SP seems to be focused in this discussion on traded debt. The pension shortfall is troubling, but a rise in interest rates will reduce the present value of future pension liabilities. Higher rates will cause big problems for debtors, but they may benefit pension funds, at least on the liability side.
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 15:41
      Many / most pensions still assume high returns 6% plus. many pension funds are woefully underfunded. Interest rates at 2-3% won't help the pension funds and interest rates much higher than 3.5% will crater the economy. There is no way out except to partially default promised payments. For State and City funds, tax increases will be the obvious way out.
  • BT
    Brian T.
    1 May 2019 @ 13:49
    Is creditism the "middle-path" to capitalism and socialism?
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    1 May 2019 @ 13:46
    The Gold vs Cryptocurrency argument is so unbelievably pointless. Anybody who understands the reasons to own either ought to be able to at least entertain the idea that they could complement each other well. Yeah, I 'get' that Bitcoin is significantly more volatile and new, and why it is risky. At the end of the day, you're never going to see 10x+ returns holding a riskless asset. However, this just means you position size it accordingly (0.5 - 1% of a portfolio if you wish to be prudent) to offset the volatility and risk of a substantial decline.
  • BO
    Bob O.
    1 May 2019 @ 12:07
    Could it be that Fascism and Communism are both punishments for the poor management of capitalism.
    • KS
      Kathleen S.
      2 May 2019 @ 23:34
      Yep, we don't have capitalism -- we have socialism for the rich. The United States has lost it's way, we need a RULE OF LAW that protects individual rights. Govt is there to protect these God given rights, govt shoud not exist for philanthropy -- which is socialism. Everyone needs to learn to take care of themselves and to develp communities - this is in our Human DNA.
  • B
    Bojo .
    1 May 2019 @ 11:42
    Thank you. One of the conversations that help me keep my (admittedly relative) sanity.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    1 May 2019 @ 09:21
    Greatly misplaced pathological modesty.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    1 May 2019 @ 09:13
    Long overdue return. Hope it won't be so long for the follow up. Great interview.
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    1 May 2019 @ 08:35
    So nice to see people actually facing up to the reality of the situation. They realise that we have to find a way to deal with the current environment, but the gravity of the consequences of failure of the Feds experiments is clearly laid out here. You have been warned.
    • TE
      Tito E.
      3 May 2019 @ 15:10
      Mr Frisby?
  • CH
    Colin H.
    1 May 2019 @ 07:07
    Stylish
  • VM
    Vincent M.
    1 May 2019 @ 02:37
    To me the reason Bitcoin has not been widely accepted is the “cost /friction “ of using it. Give me a credit card instead. I know it can move across the world but how many of really need that in our daily lives. Asking for a friend “SP”.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      1 May 2019 @ 13:26
      Don't need it in our daily lives (at the present time). May need it in an emergency (capital control imposition, etc). No sign of the latter right now, but better to be prepared - particularly if, like I do, you live in a country where Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is a non-zero probability...
  • je
    justin e.
    1 May 2019 @ 02:33
    With regards to corporate debt, has anyone done a deep dive study about where the borrowed money is going . Some obviously has been used for buybacks. I'm sure there are a multitude of reasons to float a bond . There must be some trends or patterns within sectors. ??? The why is important ... Are most borrowing until their ship arrives ...
  • PD
    Peter D.
    1 May 2019 @ 02:12
    Great interview , but, errr.... can we get the name of Stephanie's personal trainer....?
  • FC
    Fractal C.
    1 May 2019 @ 01:56
    This is a great question. BUT, Steph is actually addressing an easier question and that is why the market should go down. The harder question to answer is why the market is going up in spite of all the logical points that she is making! We need someone who puts that part the problem in the context - why is the market going up in spite of everything? Is it just the dovish Fed stance? OR, something big on the China front? Or, is it because US is a relatively better place than all other places? Or something else? And then, what is the path going forward.
    • FC
      Fractal C.
      1 May 2019 @ 01:56
      This is a great "Discussion" ....that is what i meant in the first sentence...
    • HF
      Hassan F.
      1 May 2019 @ 13:06
      Why are you surprised that she is making the case for the markets to go down. She is a perma bear. She missed the entire rally from the end of 2016 to mid last year.
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 15:20
      Could that be because the rally was totally unjustified given the fundamentals of the economy? Personally speaking, I think the rally it just stock buybacks, 401k contributions and foreign buyers who can't see their own markets offering better potential.
  • DW
    David W.
    1 May 2019 @ 00:56
    Another great interview, Grant. Around 95% Steph and 5% Grant. Perfect balance. Too many interviewers make it about themselves. Informed and informative. Impressed!
  • gg
    georgy g.
    1 May 2019 @ 00:16
    Suggestion every guest and professional interviewer put their 5yr record upfront. That way we know how to weight their points.
    • DF
      Dominic F.
      1 May 2019 @ 09:12
      Then we should do the same for the comment section too :-)
  • RS
    Robert S.
    1 May 2019 @ 00:14
    I’m chuffed to bits. Very informative talk. Highly enjoyed the quality of your relationship reflected in the conversation. PS: I’m what someone could call a Gold bug but I see the biggest value of Bitcoin in shifting money across borders.
  • DP
    David P.
    30 April 2019 @ 23:36
    Great guest and interview.....
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    30 April 2019 @ 23:16
    *inserts comment about broken clocks*
  • TM
    Tom M.
    30 April 2019 @ 23:11
    Want to save capitalism? Then work to reintroduce some version of the Border Adjusment Tax or tarrifs. It would stop deflation, provide the American consumer(70% of the economy) with money to spend, normalize rates, rebalance assets prices, and constrain the growth of government. That would not solve all the problems US has, but it would solve a lot of them.
  • CT
    CHRISTIAN T.
    30 April 2019 @ 22:46
    Great interview, bring her back!
  • DS
    David S.
    30 April 2019 @ 22:41
    Two trillion dollars for infrastructure starting soon. DLS
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    30 April 2019 @ 22:38
    I'm of the belief that the Fed and central banks around the world know the massive central bank intervention will not work long term & that is has negative implications. They are not dumb, they see what is happening, I'm sure they read stuff written by their critics, and I'm sure they are well aware of the counter arguments to money printing & ZIRP, etc.... But my guess is they feel they are forced to do what they have to do to prop up markets short term. We are in a world that thinks very short term, and NOBODY in politics or gov't wants to stand up and take the hard medicine that would make the economy & markets healthier in the long term. U.S. presidents & congress think very short term, because they have to be re-elected. They all know it would be political suicide to take the bitter pill that would mean health long term for the country, economy, capitalism.....but maybe mean short term asset price crashes and recessions that would get them voted out of office. So the only choice is to continue to prop things up as long as the next election.
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    30 April 2019 @ 22:00
    GOOD INTERVIEW ... ALMOST ALL PROS KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN-NO ONE KNOWS WHEN? A SUGGESTION IS :IF IRAN MINES THE STRAIT’S OF HORMUZ DUE TO BEING STOPPED FROM SELLING ITS OIL -THEN OIL IS $150-200 + AND INFLATION GOES TO 9% T-BILL YIELDS TO 10% AND ALL OF STEPHANIE'S CONCERNS BECOME REALITY. GOLD ANSWERS MOST OF THIS -NOTHING ELSE!. BUT IMPORTANTLY WHAT HAPPENS TO THE AMERICAN PROFIT POLITICAL SYSTEM? WE DON’T HAVE ANYTHING CLOSE TO “CAPITALISM” ... WE HAVE CORPORATISM+THE WELFARE STATE. BUT WHAT WE’LL GET IS DICTATORSHIP/MARXISM . THIS IS WAY UNDER DISCUSSED? GRANT PERHAPS A FUTURE CONVERSATION???
    • MK
      Michael K.
      30 April 2019 @ 22:56
      Love that you typed all caps with two fingers banging away at the keyboard just as Grant predicted ;)
    • KS
      Kathleen S.
      2 May 2019 @ 23:43
      Wow, totally agree --- this needs to be discussed, and what also needs to be discussed is how did we get here. WE need the US Constitution to be UPHELD --- RULE OF LAW not legalized plunder which is what we have now!!!
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      3 May 2019 @ 22:21
      My God Watson, I think you have hit the proverbial nail on the head!
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 15:14
      I am so with you on this point Victor. There is a black swan out there and i am sure its not the pensions and high stock values or even government debt debacle. It will likely be something few can see coming.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    30 April 2019 @ 21:08
    Just wanted to mention it again, Grant W. is a super talented and gracious interviewer. Keep it up sir.
  • VS
    Vikram S.
    30 April 2019 @ 21:04
    Millennials say “I can’t imagine why anyone would choose gold over Bitcoin” and Baby-Boomers say “I can’t imagine why anyone would choose Bitcoin over gold”. Go figure.
    • RS
      Rajat S.
      1 May 2019 @ 01:58
      Only one will live longer to see what happens 😁
    • DR
      David R.
      1 May 2019 @ 08:34
      @Rajat .... yes, the ones who are rich enough to afford the amazing new anti-ageing & reverse-ageing biotech etc that within 10-20 years will usher in immortality but only to those who can afford it.
    • AS
      Andrew S.
      1 May 2019 @ 12:51
      I am 65 years old and I have a bunch of gold and a bunch of bitcoin. Hard to imagine not covering all the bases if you have the resources to do so. Good luck to all of us.
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 15:11
      Perhaps something to do with the mollycoddled life and lack of experience of millennials?
  • IF
    Ian F.
    30 April 2019 @ 20:55
    Pro Trump comments from a permabear. I'll take it.
  • SP
    Stephane P.
    30 April 2019 @ 20:48
    Lovely conversation, thanks. But aside from Gold, where do I put my money now ??
    • NS
      Nathan S.
      1 May 2019 @ 04:19
      Bitcorns
    • DR
      David R.
      1 May 2019 @ 08:41
      @nathan True dat. Bitcoin continues to crush stocks both long-term and short-term including ytd 2019 despite stocks second-best-ever 4-month start , which for bitcoin would be a yawner, lol.
  • SH
    Stu H.
    30 April 2019 @ 20:31
    Quite a few comments here bemoaning Grant's big picture narrative which is clearly bearish. What do you expect? It's a macro conversation not a trade idea to make a quick quid. Surely his and Steph's bearishness makes sense when you look at our global monetary system and path world economies are on? Did they not provide clear, logical explanations to justify their views? As an investor with a long time horizon and looking to preserve capital for retirement and to pass onto my children, I don't care if Grant's narrative has remained for the past 5 years, in fact i'm glad of it and welcome every opportunity to remind myself of it. In 10 years of trying I've yet to find a logical and reasoned argument as to why our current monetary system is sustainable, all the evidence points to the exact opposite.
    • CB
      C B.
      30 April 2019 @ 21:39
      Yes, a thousand times yes.
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 15:09
      Well said Stu. Your last sentence is what keeps me awake occasionally as I think about my young adult kids and what will surely be coming their way.
  • AP
    Anthony P.
    30 April 2019 @ 19:20
    Great interview, I hope to see Stephanie on here again soon!
  • AF
    Aidan F.
    30 April 2019 @ 18:30
    @joseph said it in one. real vision......unreal vision, this stuff is crazy!! we have to feel some pain at some stage, better to let it be felt now
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    30 April 2019 @ 18:29
    outside of Real Vision and finTwit there is almost no real or honest discussion going on in the public about the federal reserve. Thanks for doing the real work.
  • DS
    David S.
    30 April 2019 @ 18:14
    The move from some central banks like China, Russia, Poland and Hungary to buy gold is a recognition that the US has and will weaponize the dollar against them. Over time, the world will learn to live without any reserve currency and will be better off for it. The FX markets will set the price of each currency for better or worse. At least they have skin in the game. As long as we can legally buy and sell gold, we can use gold as a partial hedge, but silver coins may be more tradeable for bread. In the new world everything is in play. Be careful. DLS
  • JS
    Jon S.
    30 April 2019 @ 18:12
    Everyone is over thinking this. It's really a simple algorithm. What day is it? If its a non holiday weekday, then market goes up:)
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    30 April 2019 @ 18:01
    When everyone's making money everyone is long denial. Thus we keep dancing.
  • GW
    Guillermo W.
    30 April 2019 @ 17:19
    Amazing interview and fantastic discussion on leveraged share buy backs. To all 11 viewers that voted thumbs down, get your heads checked.
  • LJ
    Lucas J.
    30 April 2019 @ 17:03
    The Rip Van Winkle question on Gold always gets me...I would answer in the multiple 1000's and I would be dead wrong in USD, but if I were Argentine, or Turkish, or Canadian, or or or...I would be so right. Also I wonder if there has ever been and investment that so many "smart" people were in agreement on that just didn't "pan" out?
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    30 April 2019 @ 15:28
    Good to have Stephanie back as we continue to seek clues as to what happens next. To add, it could be interesting to hear how skeptical players are participating in this market environment. Are they going along with the uptrend in high flyers, hedging, FX positioning approach, interest rate strategies etc.... By God, they better not be short preppers!! Thanks loads!
    • VP
      Vincent P.
      30 April 2019 @ 15:38
      .....agree on the interest rate play (10's or flatteners) to buy them at 3% and sell at 2.50%.
  • GC
    George C.
    30 April 2019 @ 15:12
    I've heard this basic conversation so many times. Grant's consistent theme is, "I can't believe it and at some point it will matter." We get it, but the lament is getting old (and costly, for anyone who'd been scared away by Grant and Pomboy over the past five years). I love the long format. Just wish the repetition in Grant's wonderment could be reduced. That said, kudos to Grant for landing an extended interview of Pomboy. Always appreciate hearing her views and insights into possible investment opportunities (as well as her humor), except when she allows her political ideology to cloud her perspective (for instance, she fails to acknowledge the ways income and wealth are already redistributed up and uses the tired albeit effective scare tactic of positing a bipolar choice between capitalism and socialism). And she seemingly fails to appreciate the reasons why populism and progressive politics are gaining steam; she seems to think everyone is riding the wave. Of course, all of us have our blind spots, so I don't want to make too big a deal out of this.
    • GH
      Garrett H.
      30 April 2019 @ 18:48
      It won't matter till it matters. I would hope there will be enough signs that those paying attention can protect themselves.
    • CB
      C B.
      30 April 2019 @ 21:36
      This BAM type of comment about someone expousing a bearish macro view always comes up. They'll say, "We get it, but the lament is getting old (and costly, for anyone who'd been scared away by Grant and Pomboy over the past five years)". Tell me... Why would it be costly for someone? Because they allocated 10% to gold and 5% to cash in their otherwised balanced stock and bond portfolio? Wouldn't it be more costly to take no action and then have a 1970's scenario assert itself and have 50% of their capital destoryed on a real basis. No one on RV has ever come on and said "Sell all your stocks!" If that is your interpretation, go back and listen again, all of the content will appear brand new to you.
  • GH
    Gary H.
    30 April 2019 @ 14:24
    Didn't really learn anything new but still enjoyed the conversation. The lists of concerns are what we all think about everyday and wonder how the current state of affairs will turn out. Only certainty is things take a lot lot longer to play out and the central planners have a vested interest and unlimited amount of cash to keep the party going as long as possible because of the worries you discussed.
    • DR
      David R.
      1 May 2019 @ 08:28
      Yes, the amount of cash is unlimited, but not really as its value crashes despite the lies from BLS. Real inflation year-over-year is >10% per shadow stats, using the CPI basis of the 1970s before government changed it again & again to systemically understate inflation. As anyone knows who pays for healthcare, food, gas, rent, etc.
  • GR
    George R.
    30 April 2019 @ 14:04
    Surely the next crypto will be based on a Bank of Good Deeds - the coin being BGD. People will give their free time for good deeds and the receiver of the good or service will "print" payment in BGD. Before you know, BGD will be wide in circulation and the world will be wonderful. Mike Novogratz, if you read this.....you're welcome. Please print me some BGD.
  • HO
    H2 O.
    30 April 2019 @ 13:38
    Plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about the economy and the level of asset prices, but very tired of listening to people commiserate about how the sky is always falling. Over time this kind of negativity blinds people to constructive possibilities and makes them bad investors. Many and I dare say most RV guests have disbelieved just about every rally that has happened in the past few years, and go into hibernation until inevitable market corrections confirm their bearish biases. The funny thing is that many pathological pessimists don’t have the cajones to go short and in the same way lack the temperament to go long. The end result is crappy macro returns.
    • CB
      C B.
      30 April 2019 @ 21:26
      This comment assumes that a bearish macro view results in a zero allocation to equity. But that is unlikely to be the case with the average professional. Non novice investors think about the world around them as a set of probabilities. Anyone who uses that framework does not have a zero allocation to equity. Because the chances of equity prices moving higher is always greater than zero (especially measured in dollars). So all the moaning over guests or Grant expressing a bearish macro view and assuming that Grant is implicitly suggesting that a zero allocation to equity is appropriate is just misplaced. I think the superior interpretation of this interview is that the investment environment is full of risk right now, and an awareness of that fact and knowledge of investments that are imperfectly correlated to equity can increase the chances of keeping your investment capital in tact.
    • TM
      Timothy M.
      30 April 2019 @ 22:00
      Great comment and I concur with the mostly bearish views on the RV platform. It seems like the general theme is the CB's have distorted most markets. I have invested in the stock market since I was 10. I am 52 now. The primary lesson I have learned during the many cycles is diversification. I own residential and CRE, viaticals(life insurance policies on others), cash and some equities via my employer and my 401k. The bottom line is we need to listen to the interviews on RV, but always have a diversified portfolio that rewards us in bull markets and protects us in bear markets.
    • DI
      Dabangg I.
      1 May 2019 @ 05:18
      Very true. If these experts actually put their money where their mouth is, they would have lost out 30% upside that has occurred since 2016 from where on I have only heard Grant, Raol, and RV guests in disbelief and question this rally. I agree they make good points, and eventually they will be right, and the market falls 30-40%. But oh boy they have been so wrong for so long, that even a 40% fall would mean they were neutral (not right).
  • DL
    David L.
    30 April 2019 @ 12:56
    Terrific interview - thanks so much.
  • PM
    Polina M.
    30 April 2019 @ 12:17
    I don't understand how someone at her level (both professionally and intellectually) "cannot understand cryptocurrencies", you can argue on thier use and adoption but the concept of decentralized ledger and asset tokenazation is not super complicated. She should really look into it, as I believe it will complement the use of gold as money in the future.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      30 April 2019 @ 13:48
      B. Bernanke said something like "only gold is money, everything else is debt". I totally agree, and I think this is the one of the main reasons why cryptos will never play the role of gold. Another big one is that governments will simply not allow cryptos to play the role of money.
    • TR
      Travis R.
      30 April 2019 @ 14:38
      Bernanke has far too low an IQ to have made that statement,
    • BW
      Bill W.
      30 April 2019 @ 18:12
      Bernanke said, "Gold is not money".
    • MC
      Minum C.
      30 April 2019 @ 18:24
      Ben Bernanke did not say that. J.P. Morgan gets credit for the quote, but it was probably someone else before Mr. Morgan. Maybe it was Barney Bernanke.
    • JA
      Justin A.
      30 April 2019 @ 18:55
      My 2 cents on Bitcoin vs Gold. May 1, 1933 the day owning gold was made illegal and American's were required to turn in their gold for fiat. In my opinion it will be much harder to confiscate BTC.
    • GH
      Garrett H.
      30 April 2019 @ 19:48
      Distributed secure ledgers will be the future of money transfers between banks and even national currencies. Decentralized cryptocurrencies are a different animal as governments will inevitably outlaw them if they gain too much market share.
    • TM
      Tom M.
      30 April 2019 @ 22:43
      The really smart people involved in cryptocurrencies are too clever for their own good. What they fail to observe is that there is an unlimited supply of cryptocurrencies. To be made viable cryptocurrencies need to be backed up with something desirable and limited, thus becoming a better transmission medium of the above and in doing so adding value. P.S. or they know exactly what they are doing since it's lucrative.
    • DR
      David R.
      1 May 2019 @ 08:20
      The funny thing is how they'll miss out for a second time on the coming crypto boom 2.0 lol
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      1 May 2019 @ 09:37
      Right, and if Socialism and authoritarianism raise their ugly heads across the world over the coming decade, as it seems they will, crypto currencies may be the only way to survive for some. There are already several prominent “influencers” who’ve been deplatformed and “debanked” by Paypal, Patreon, all of mainstream Social Media and even conventional banks. This censorious trend is only going to worsen over the coming years. The State is out of control. Crypto is already a saviour for the dissidents among us. Governments can ban it, but they can’t stop it. #FreeAssange
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 15:03
      Justin, not sure how much you have read or are paying attention to the way things are heading. Government will absolutely not permit crypto to gain significant traction outside the small minority that play in the space. Indeed it is the governments who WANT crypto, but only under their taxable terms. Crypto is a speculative investment, and as such thats just fine. But its most certainly NOT money. It is just 1s and 0s and confidence can easily be lost in that etherial value, let alone stolen and taxed.
  • JD
    Josie D.
    30 April 2019 @ 10:39
    I personally enjoy your female speakers, please continue with this trend!
    • TM
      Tom M.
      30 April 2019 @ 22:51
      I enjoy competent speakers, their gender being irrelevant.
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      2 May 2019 @ 04:55
      Female investors have been proven to be better investors than male counterparts. Keep bringing the great women!
  • MM
    Michael M.
    30 April 2019 @ 10:23
    Amazing to listen to. Worth the subscription price.
  • BJ
    Brian J.
    30 April 2019 @ 09:32
    Watched her at Mauldin conference 2015. Completely got everything wrong since then. Good to listen to so you know what not to do
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 14:57
      I suspect thats largely because the financial madness simply continues and anybody who talks common sense can be labeled a pessimist and clearly doesn't get that "its different this time". The fact you you obviously believe there is no massive pensions and social security crisis coming is surprising given you went to a Mauldin conference in the first place. She and countless others have been wrong since 2012 simply shows that the mania we are currently in, is extraordinary.
  • AP
    A P.
    30 April 2019 @ 09:09
    Grant, any investment advice? (not gold) We already get that bashing Central Bank(er)s all day long is fun (for some), that we should all be worried, that debt levels are ‘unbelievable’ and ‘staggering’. That many things are ‘illusions’ and that ’no-one seems to believe A-B-C’. But watch Stephanie’s reactions: We had to wait till min 45 before Stephanie said “maybe to say something nice and positive here” + min 49 “you keep dragging me back to such dark places”. And as a viewer, I can say she is very right. Using your guests to prove your points and constantly drive them into your angst with flavors of ‘no-one gets it’ has really become religious here (LT RV subscriber here). Suggestion: Get semi-dirty like Raoul with his calls, or at least find ways to be come constructive (or, as I said before, maybe I just don’t get that this is Justine’s job to be constructive and do deep research). Besides, being worried 24/7 is not healthy, and we all wish you best here.
    • JA
      John A.
      30 April 2019 @ 11:14
      It seems to me the the goal of RV is to provide a bit of everything you just described. There ARE traders giving that kind of advice in this service, they’re just not interviewed by Grant. Grant gets the “big picture” interviews, which is what he’s great at. Justine gets more of the down in the dirt of the business kind of interviews, and she’s great at that. I, for one, love that RV is broadening it’s topics to include people like Stephanie, as well as tradeable advice. I can get traders and portfolio managers talking their book all day on 2 or 3 channels on TV. Interviews like this one cannot be gotten anywhere else that I’m aware of. Bravo, RV
    • AP
      A P.
      30 April 2019 @ 11:39
      If you want the big picture without the embedded angst about the future, you listen to people like Neil Howe and Charles/Louis Gave (probably missing a lot of people on this tiny list) that try to think about how the world will work and ACCEPT IT. Read this book if you want real big-picture market insights of what the global economy might look like in a few years: https://amzn.to/2GRiCyW I love everything Denise Shull-stamped so it has nothing to do with “tame your emotions” down. There is just a limit to which the big picture gets distorted to such perma-bear proportions to the level guests are even pointing it out. There are no more new insights - however big you think the picture is - so no need to enveloppe this into a “wisdom” package. You are right in that everyone has its strengths and inclinations of topics. In that regard, I am not asking Grant to show up on Trade Ideas, but to tone down the bearishness of any of the arguments he is making each time he shows up: this has simply systematic and everyone can see it coming before hitting play (be it on Tesla, debt, just name it; even world-class short-sellers seem happier/more positive). He helped create this platform - thank god! - but he is much more constructive in his letters, so that would not be a stretch to ask for the same diversified insights when interviewed/interviewing. (or stick to the wonderful candid/genuine interest he has in people’s careers when he interviews them on their turf, cf. Ross Beaty / Hugh Hendry / Marc Cohodes).
    • WM
      Will M.
      4 May 2019 @ 14:51
      AP, if anyone had put me into a slumber in 1997 and woke me up today I may just have believed the percieved state of the financial was truly an absolute joke and nonsense. I subscribe to RVT because I do hear both sides of the argument, if biased of course to the "dark side". However, it is obvious to me that the financial world is at the precipice and when the next crisis comes it shall be much worse than the last crisis. Humans in the absence of major trauma, do tend to look at the last 7 - 10 years and project it into the future. NOTHING in the world to day is heading in the right direction and when the financial house of cards collapses as it surely will, the chaos so narrowly averted in 2008/2009 will materialize. I 100% agree with you that being worried 24/7 is not healthy! But for those of us who have worked hard, saved and not spent our way in life, managed debt responsibly, lived a reasonably healthy life and who look forward to maybe a last 15-25 years of comfort with our savings and pensions etc, it is extremely difficult to imagine what we will be able to do at 75, if and when that pack of cards collapses.
  • CR
    Cristian R.
    30 April 2019 @ 08:00
    Recently the clock doesn't consistently fade away when in full screen.
    • TB
      Troy B.
      30 April 2019 @ 10:23
      Yeah having the same issue since new interface was updated.
    • DS
      David S.
      30 April 2019 @ 15:28
      Move cursor to the border, or touch the dark border on touch screen. DlS
  • JS
    John S.
    30 April 2019 @ 07:58
    Really enjoyed this interview. Very articulate and logical and knowlegeable.