Valuations Don’t Matter Until They Do

Featuring Peter Boockvar

Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst at The Lindsey Group and highly respected strategist, gets to grips with US stock market valuations, which are now starting to matter, as monetary largesse begins to fade. Peter identifies the signals investors should watch for in the upcoming earnings season and alongside a comprehensive global macro assessment, he highlights the stress points in the US economy, in addition to the growth stories in emerging Asia. Filmed on April 11, 2017, in New York.

Published on
18 April, 2017
Topic
Global Outlook, Monetary policy, US Economy
Duration
52 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Currencies
Rating
18

Comments

  • PS

    PD S.

    4 6 2017 00:46

    0       0

    great interview grant, peter B is da man!

  • BS

    Bill S.

    29 4 2017 16:39

    0       0

    Great big picture view

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    28 4 2017 11:44

    0       0

    Central banks tighten ... assets will head south ... Central banks will loosen again ... rinse and repeat. Japan is years ahead of the west in this game and they have shown that there is no way out. Can anyone convince me that this is not true?

  • KS

    Kim S.

    22 4 2017 17:52

    0       0

    Especially valid for indexing. It just occurred to me that you could have been borrowing from low-rate credit cards the past 10 years, investing in index funds, and come out ahead even after making minimum payments. To put it in simplistic terms "that's messed up".

  • SC

    Shane C.

    22 4 2017 04:12

    0       0

    I can't get on board with China. Communist, hyper keynsianism, mercanitlist, outright financial reporting fraud. Their crash will be ten times worse. It's not about having a long term view. It's will you ever even have an opportunity to get your money back regardless of the % of which you can stand to loose. They have frankstein securitization of financial products, crazy capital controls, etc. How does that equate in reality? Also in regards to the dollar. I mean hot flows from investors in a panic kill these markets all the time. NOW THE FLIP SIDE of this process is that these markets banks have been holding dollar denominated reserve currency as an insurance policy for capital outflows. BUTTTT a sharp decline in the dollar impairs their capital valuation, leverage, etc. Secondly why in the world can China reform or the rest of the world after the big crash, but America...what...won't or can't? That is nonsense. He said it himself the central banks all do the same thing all over the world and they are kind of aligning in terms of actual laid out policy prescriptions. America in a disaster is still where people want to go in a absolute safety play. It turns from a search from yeild to a search for survival and they turn to the US (even in our current state) because we will preserve some semblance of freedom and rule of law (property protection of capital) when the world ends. This was a very informative interview like always guys. Just a respectful rebutal, but I agree whole heartedly about the "austrian school" style credit fall out. 100% on point there.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    21 4 2017 01:21

    0       0

    Great interview. Thanks.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    20 4 2017 22:55

    4       0

    I can always find a little time to listen to a bright humble person shotgun well reasoned arguments in a pithy and concise manner. Only on RV TV! It would have taken Peter 2 years to saywhat he just did on a medium where they interrupt him every 26 seconds. RV is just so refreshing!

  • DS

    David S.

    20 4 2017 14:14

    0       0

    ItWorking babl

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    20 4 2017 08:32

    0       0

    So, bonds will fall a lot and so will equities. That may well be true over the medium term. But the path of these simultaneous bear markets is unlikely to be highly correlated on a weekly or even monthly basis.

  • PN

    Paul N.

    20 4 2017 03:30

    2       0

    Reading the minds of central bankers is both necessary and impossible in today's world.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    20 4 2017 00:40

    3       0

    Another great interview. If anyone still has a longer term time horizon it is easy to believe that interest rates will rise which willl cause equities to fall. As Jesse fielder describes it this is the everything bubble

  • SJ

    Sophie J.

    19 4 2017 11:31

    0       1

    Sophie Jay

  • GG

    Gerald G.

    19 4 2017 04:23

    6       0

    At one point Grant expresses wonder and amazement that the market keeps going up purely on the hope that Trump will magically save the world while, at the same time, UTTERLY IGNORING all the hard data to the contrary (as well as any Trump initiatives that might be counterproductive). What he missed is the even more absurd development that the market has turned the whole narrative on it's head and now, is putting a positive spin on the growing realization that Trump isn't going to be able to deliver on any of his promises. It seems that it really doesn't matter that he isn't going to be able to fix anything because now, the important thing is that he won't be able to do any damage either (with his negative initiatives). Tell me this kind of self delusional distorted rationalization doesn't reflect a society trapped in it's own deep psychosis.

  • EL

    Edward L.

    19 4 2017 02:09

    2       0

    superb interview. This one will need a ]second viewing

  • MM

    Michael M.

    19 4 2017 00:42

    5       3

    His valuation argument dose not consider the cost of capital for large corporations. Companies like Amazon, Google and Apple can grow and conduct R&D at zero real rate borrowing costs. P/E doesn't take this into consideration. Growth is much more valuable than earnings in a low cost of capital world.

  • BK

    Brian K.

    18 4 2017 23:20

    4       0

    Great interview, so well articulated. And great job by Grant as always. RVTV killing it as usual.

  • SS

    Stephen S.

    18 4 2017 21:57

    2       0

    Loved it. Great interview.

  • DF

    Dan F.

    18 4 2017 21:14

    1       0

    The Fed is the smoking gun in every market whodunit, but there's a LOT of toppy-sounding talk nowadays. Plus ca change...

  • RM

    Russell M.

    18 4 2017 21:07

    1       0

    Who is the dumbest dumbass ever? Perhaps a central banker dreaming sugar plumb dreams of negative interest rate policy.

  • RE

    Rachel E.

    18 4 2017 18:58

    1       0

    Excellent.

  • GM

    Greg M.

    18 4 2017 18:36

    4       0

    Simply refreshing - especially after listening Brian Moynihan drone on about earnings. Always good to hear common sense and cogent economic insight.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    18 4 2017 18:11

    4       0

    Clear, concise and easy to follow/understand. Well done gentlemen---

  • GB

    Grant B.

    18 4 2017 17:34

    8       0

    Good interview. When does Grant not end an interview without a question on the interviewee's view on gold? He must have have been very happy after that answer!

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    18 4 2017 17:00

    12       0

    Pay the tab.
    Great job Grant I'll say it again you continue to raise the bar.
    Thank you

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    18 4 2017 16:57

    1       0

    Ahh,
    Common sense experience nice to hear.
    I was beginning to wonder if I'd ever hear it spoken again.
    I've been in the market since 1970 and seen this crap over and over.
    Foolish childish hope won't