“WTF is Going on?!” — Stocks & Bonds Diverge

Published on
November 20th, 2019
Duration
61 minutes

Bitcoin Legend Dan Morehead: On the Cutting-Edge of Macro and Crypto


“WTF is Going on?!” — Stocks & Bonds Diverge

The Interview ·
Featuring Keith McCullough

Published on: November 20th, 2019 • Duration: 61 minutes

Keith McCullough, CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, shares his macro perspective with Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal in this wide-ranging discussion on investing in a perplexing market environment. They try to make sense of a buoyant stock market that seemingly contradicts the ominous economic indicators that ought to be curbing the market's growth. Keith explains his bearish outlook on China, while Raoul contends that widening credit spreads in the U.S. indicate that a market correction could be in order. You don't want to miss this interview. Filmed on November 12, 2019 in New York.

Comments

Transcript

  • ND
    Noel D.
    1 December 2019 @ 01:53
    Great show Raoul and Keith. I agree with your sense of the direction things are going, however, Dabangg I, has a good point. I beg you, Raoul, to have a one-on-one debate / discussion with the Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel who makes compelling arguments that are more along the lines of no recession in sight and US equities being fairly priced on average. Perhaps there are others that Dabangg i can recommend as I am happy to hear more and varying perspectives. Keep up the great work.
    • DI
      Dabangg I.
      2 December 2019 @ 08:49
      + 1 to Noel. I would recommend Raoul sit down with Dr. Edward Yardeni (for example), who has been a bull and quite rightly so for the US stock market in particular (despite the growing debt, MMT, strong dollar, trade war and all the other reasons regurgitating on RV for over 3 years now). Unfortunately, the RV world is too small. The broader your reach of guests, the more credibility you will gain. Common guys, take a risk!! Get a really meaningful discussion series going with some respected bulls.
  • DI
    Dabangg I.
    29 November 2019 @ 04:58
    Bunch of bears echo-chambering their way for the last 3 years. There are hundreds of respected Bulls out there, but Raoul either does not want to engage with them (and likes living in this little world), or RV does not have the credibility or courage to invite/debate/discuss/brainstorm with bulls outside their comfort zone.
  • GG
    Gary G.
    27 November 2019 @ 05:18
    Great discussion. Thanks RV!!
  • CT
    Christopher T.
    24 November 2019 @ 14:16
    the lack of awareness it takes to speak with such smugness and arrogance is pretty amazing to see, They speak in such absolutes you'd think they hit the ball of out of the park in terms of calls and p/l.
    • JR
      Jon R.
      25 November 2019 @ 17:55
      I liked the interview, and can't dispute that Raoul and Keith are extremely well informed and insightful. But I don't think your comment is off base. A little humility wouldn't hurt. They "want to stop people from being fools at times like this" or "we can be wrong but the probability isn't that high." It's almost like they've been right to be so defensive and the market is wrong. Asset allocation is tough esp w this unlimited QE.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      25 November 2019 @ 21:12
      Correct, and they have both been wrong for YEARS and badly underperformed. I’m socked so many people on here worship them. The only explanation is they have been following them and are anchored to a doomsday scenario that will never come. Sad how lost some people are.
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    24 November 2019 @ 10:46
    Keith's Quad-based investment thing: As a strategy, is it back-testable? Would like to see some evidence on that. Because if it's not back-testable, it's just marketing.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      24 November 2019 @ 13:14
      backtest, that's a reasonable question, but personally I filter 'ideas' from wherever they come as follows. it must be possible to express any idea through a highly liquid instrument, and vitally important, in turn the instrument in question (stock, etf/etn or futures) MUST have highly liquid option markets e.g. spreads no more than $0.25 worse case. If there's no liquidity it falls at the first hurdle, forget and move on. If however we have idea able to be expressed with a highly liquid instrument, then using Options, always the most efficient way to deploy capital, I then try to find a potential option trade that sets up with a mathmatical probability of profit greater than 70%. The aforementioned is an over simplification but the principle being liquidity first, then second can I structure an Option trade with a greater than 70% probability of profit at entry. If I can't find a structure or method of setting up an Option position with a probability greater than 70%, then move on, look for something else. If either of the above criteria are not met, then it's thanks but not thanks.
    • AL
      Alex L.
      25 November 2019 @ 02:41
      It's literally made from backtesting.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      25 November 2019 @ 07:37
      My point being, the pricing in option markets are informationally highly efficient. Option markets 'process' the news, fundamentals etc pretty much instantaneously. Although this is of no use for long stocks only money managers, RIAs
    • PP
      Peter P.
      25 November 2019 @ 21:14
      He claims it was made from back testing but has not provided any proof or performance results so buyer beware
    • FG
      Flavio G.
      26 November 2019 @ 11:43
      Alex L., you mentioned it's literally made from backtesting. Literally means that there must be literature somewhere that demonstrates how their process achieves alpha. Can you post it here? a link or something? Thanks!
    • SP
      Stuart P.
      27 November 2019 @ 09:50
      Crazy idea, back-test it yourself
    • GP
      Geoff P.
      2 December 2019 @ 00:47
      I'm not sure how this meandering set of comments keep reverting to options. Lots of ways to express macro trades. H.E. doesn't talk a hell of a lot about options. Really a non sequitir here.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      3 December 2019 @ 15:09
      FA0 Geoff P. Non sequitir ? Hmmm. The 'meandering' comments on Options started with my 'post' on this thread in response to Flavio asking about back testing. I then thought back testing can be useful, but it's a time consuming exercise, so what is another more time efficient approach to 'filtering' an investment idea/trade tip from an outside source that we can use that literally takes 2 minutes maximum, is mathematically rigorous and if validated by current market conditions, it should be possible to set up position with a high probability of success trade at time of entry. The premise being it's possible to filter into a yes or no decision any Stock idea or investment thesis from the Option Market as 'real' actionable information can be derived to those can interpret and understand the significance of changes in movement of Option Premiums, ( in the Jargon changes in Implied Volatility) such that we can avoid time consuming activities such as back testing, or second guessing what to do, avoid more research time, all of the aforementioned is avoidable if we can learn to trust the information provided by 'The Market' as changes in Option premiums occur. So a quick filter process as follows: 1./ Is the underlying itself AND its Options highly liquid? If either is a no, or even worst a stock doesn't even have viable options then red alert, stop and move on. 2./ Irrespective of being long, short or neutral on a Stock, look for a way to Structure an Option trade with a 70% mathematically derived probability of profit. If you can't find such a probability move on and forget. Steps one and two takes 2 mins max. The above is entirely 100% applicable to Macro or any other types of trading or Investing.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    22 November 2019 @ 15:06
    AAA conversation! Keith and Raoul always deliver!
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    22 November 2019 @ 09:25
    Thanks Guys :-)
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      26 November 2019 @ 17:18
      Thanks!
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    22 November 2019 @ 03:24
    Jeez Raoul - my 8 year old dollar was sitting next to me..... 'Daddy, he said a bad word!!'..... lol.
  • JO
    Jay O.
    21 November 2019 @ 16:44
    Great discussion, gents!
  • EK
    Emil K.
    21 November 2019 @ 14:48
    For what it is worth, my only appreciable talent - besides doing balloon animals at kids parties - is identifying people who know what they are talking about. After watching Hedgeye for several years now I can give my unqualified thumbs up. Highly recommended.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    21 November 2019 @ 14:34
    over arching theme with me, is that debt is deflationary. As I watch this, global ism has turned back down. Love to hear points of view.
  • JS
    John S.
    21 November 2019 @ 14:00
    As an RIA with 34 years in the business I can't imagine shepherding other people's money without Hedgeye. Confident in the process, making far fewer mistakes, and sleeping better at night. Best part...my clients think I'm a genius and (although there are occasional pangs of guilt) I've learned to live with it.
    • MB
      Michael B.
      22 November 2019 @ 20:07
      John, I am RIA with 37 years. Are you using the all access platinum pass? Love to discuss with you
  • LJ
    Liam J.
    21 November 2019 @ 11:29
    I never really understood the teslaq vigilantes. if you're really that sure about tesla going to 0 just buy put options with the furthest expiration date you can find. Risk what you're willing to lose. If you're right than you just made shit ton of money. If the expiration date hits and you're out of the money you know you were wrong but atleast you didn't lose all your capital you just lost whatever capital you put in the puts nothing more nothing less.
    • JL
      J L.
      24 November 2019 @ 00:19
      perhaps it was too early to short with an active hashtag on the thing going broke out there
  • MT
    Mike T.
    21 November 2019 @ 10:55
    certainly one of the better dialogues seen in recent times, I've read the transcript twice, however just to be a little bit 'picky' .... Keith of course is a consummate salesman, and took the opportunity to plug his risk range product e.g. " people tell him they couldn't survive with out...." etc OK the idea is sound but you don't need to pay money to derive a daily range. ..... This can be done very simply buy turning to the options market for assistance. We can use Implied Volatility (IV) of any stock to calculate the expected range for any time frame e.g. in the following formula set N = 1 for a daily range, or N = 30 for thirty day range.... etc Price (of the stock, or futures) * (IV/100) * Square Root ( N days / 365).
    • JS
      John S.
      21 November 2019 @ 14:20
      Hedgeye crunches and distills dozens of data points every day and puts them in a format I can use for about $1.50 a day. It isn't for everyone but I'm alright with it.
    • CR
      Cindy R.
      23 November 2019 @ 00:05
      John s. I'm a subscriber to some of the Hedgeye products. What do you use?
  • DI
    Dabangg I.
    21 November 2019 @ 10:04
    Get a bull please for a change. Feel like I m stuck in raouls (everything is going to shit) echo chamber....for 3 years!!
    • MC
      Minum C.
      21 November 2019 @ 16:59
      3 years isn't a long time to wait for an everything is going to shit moment. Raoul wants you to realize your time horizon is your competitive advantage over institutions that are forced to benchmark themselves every quarter.
  • AK
    Ado K.
    21 November 2019 @ 09:33
    All the Real vision interviews are truly great, but Raouls are just the creme de la creme of interviews. This was truly amazing, will re-watch it many times!
  • as
    andrew s.
    21 November 2019 @ 08:40
    Suggest you look at this before claiming ,"never been the spread that we currently see between CCC credit and the B's( BBB)" Totally misleading and incorrect. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJ2GJzPWkAAvnKc?format=png&name=small
    • as
      andrew s.
      21 November 2019 @ 11:13
      *seen
  • CL
    Chris L.
    21 November 2019 @ 04:40
    the more I follow Raoul, the more I realize his POV is merely a cacophony of others routinely found on RV.
  • NS
    Nicholas S.
    21 November 2019 @ 04:24
    If you're nervous about the market, it's probably because you know deep down you're taking on more risk than you are comfortable with. Maybe you have a margin to roll-back or have a heavy asset allocation. Whatever it is, something attracted you to these bears to support a thesis for protecting yourself. Despite this, I'd caution about being a full on bear via short-selling. If you're going into short-selling, at least wait until the day this rocket going up starts to go sideways and down first. It worked for me with Bitcoin and it should work here too but the biggest difference between this and Bitcoin is that the Fed and many market makers involved here to prop things up a little longer. I think more likely we're likely going to have a Christmas rally that will drive the markets up into the new year with less of a chance of a collapse before then. Just don't be short volatility (ie. selling options) for now because it can and will go either way.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    21 November 2019 @ 04:02
    Keith is excellent. I follow the hedgeye team very closely and these guys have been great.
  • AE
    Anders E.
    21 November 2019 @ 02:24
    Good interview. Any thoughts on what this chart says about the true shape of the economy (total - not just public corps.) and total corporate profits ($, not per share after buybacks)? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A053RC1Q027SBEA
  • RT
    Rex T.
    21 November 2019 @ 02:11
    This style or Macro cross asset tourism trading went out of fashion a long time away.
  • TT
    Tungsheng T.
    21 November 2019 @ 02:08
    Aligned with my view with commodity. Planning to catch WTI and DBA
  • PP
    Peter P.
    21 November 2019 @ 01:57
    Both these guys dramatically underperformed the market since 2009 I’m pretty sure.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      21 November 2019 @ 04:24
      What? They seem financially comfortable eg growing their respective firms takes money?
    • IT
      Ivan T.
      21 November 2019 @ 05:28
      How about you
    • MW
      Magnus W.
      21 November 2019 @ 11:40
      If you'd been a subscriber you knew Keith killed it this year although he missed out on some equity gains and was overall too bearish
    • PP
      Peter P.
      21 November 2019 @ 13:36
      Peter, being financially comfortable has nothing to do with investment performance. Selling research, subscriptions, etc. is likely what made them financially comfortable not their investment prowess. You could simply follow their comments and see they have been wrong for quite some time.
    • WM
      Will M.
      24 November 2019 @ 15:43
      perhaps.... but who would have believed what has transpired post 2009 before 2007? The post 2009 financial shenanigans have set us up for financial collapse. Its not if but when and we are closer now to the end game than then. Still, another massive peak in the market is still quite possible.....
  • RT
    Rex T.
    21 November 2019 @ 01:53
    OMG the POTUS lies to us about the state of the US economy... I’m shocked.
  • RG
    Roman G.
    21 November 2019 @ 01:30
    Hello fellow people on RV, I'm a student who uses these videos for self-study. I'm looking for an explanation of what signal Keith is referring to when he says "the vol of the vol of the vol" at around 30:50. Why/how is the third rate of change of vol useful? How is it even measured? Thank you to who ever takes moment to help out!
    • RT
      Rex T.
      21 November 2019 @ 01:55
      don’t ask these difficult questions... it’s probably made up. But sounds good :)
    • IB
      Ian B.
      21 November 2019 @ 03:35
      The MOVE Index
    • MT
      Mike T.
      21 November 2019 @ 09:01
      https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/the-skinny-on-options-math/episodes/what-is-meant-by-vol-of-vol-06-25-2015
  • DN
    Dave N.
    20 November 2019 @ 23:14
    Nice.
  • db
    don b.
    20 November 2019 @ 23:07
    So you're long oil but don't talk about oil? Really?
    • NS
      Nicholas S.
      21 November 2019 @ 04:37
      Probably because it falls in the commodity sector. He's long Cattle too. Oil is a pretty big topic on its own. It seems like demand is dropping over the long run which isn't what people expect.
    • tc
      t c.
      21 November 2019 @ 10:49
      did well on oil producers etf last month or so. He's made some good contrarian calls within a bigger context.
  • JL
    James L.
    20 November 2019 @ 22:50
    Keith Gutsy! Great interview and exchange from you both, Thanks!
  • la
    luis a.
    20 November 2019 @ 22:24
    Mr Doom Loop
  • BM
    Brenton M.
    20 November 2019 @ 21:44
    Canada coming into Quad 2, but what about Australia?!
    • WS
      Will S.
      21 November 2019 @ 02:35
      Similar. Exposure to Chinese consumption could take a rather dire macro situation (huge debt, housing bubbles, to start) and make it that much worse for Australia. I'm Canadian and the numbers suggest Australia and Canada are similar cousins in their overall situations, but the Aussie economy is more dependent on Chinese industrial consumption and the income derived from that than Canada is. I'm right in the middle of Toronto so I know how bad the housing bubble is here, but it's basically only topped by Australia and Hong Kong, the thought of which astounds me. Add on more dependency for the Aussie's on China providing income as it slows and China's demographics turn very negative...God help you. I hope you didn't buy Australian property on credit in the last (5?) years.
    • DH
      Dirk H.
      21 November 2019 @ 02:59
      quad 3 due to correlation with China
  • JM
    John M.
    20 November 2019 @ 21:42
    Love Hedgeye but Keith's call on Canada in Quad 2/strengthening CAD $ is mystifying? Liberal, now, minority government with only 33% support of the electorate) pursuing green policies which constrain resource (oil notably) development and divide the country West, or pursuing very foolish social spending. Quebec separatism hoping to exploit this divide for their own advantage. Housing, still a bubble awaiting a pin. Household debt very high. Canadian manufacturing not doing well.....Foreign policy has been poor, a function of weak leadership. The only positive that I can think of is that with so many negatives, the house of cards hasn't collapsed yet, Yikes!
    • BM
      Brenton M.
      20 November 2019 @ 22:29
      The quads are essentially quarter based (short time horizon). As Keith says in the interview, it is because they're coming off a near recessionary basing effect. It is purely a rate of change boost in the short term from those lows (relief rally type stuff). If China is in ongoing trouble and the US is about to flirt with the zero bound on growth, Canada does not escape over a longer time-frame.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      21 November 2019 @ 04:21
      Keith's model doesnot consider politics like the minority, liberal,... facts. Canada has a few positives - consistent high immigration, safe haven status especially for anti- Americans', highly educated & progressive population,... eh!
    • AP
      Ash P.
      21 November 2019 @ 20:35
      Deflationary/Inflationary, Exhalation/Inhalation, wax on/wax off. If your view is based on the grand sweep of economic history - cycles - then Liberal /Conservative mean imperceptibly different shades of grey. And that's truer than ever in a medium sized, open, resource-based economy with relatively good technocratic governance.
    • JM
      John M.
      21 November 2019 @ 21:16
      Agree, I realize his view is a qtr vs qtr short run perspective but I still can't see what's improving on the margin? The macro picture although irrelevant to Hedgeye Quad perspective suggests to me the probability of a negative event is significantly greater than any upside surprise. So far in Q4 CAD-USD just about flat.
  • DS
    David S.
    20 November 2019 @ 20:55
    I certainly agree with you on the defined pension plan liability cliff. When one of your big company's bonds are downgraded to triple C bonds - as you mentioned, the rules may just be changed so pensions can buy triple C bonds. This is the wrong thing to do, but it will kill the shorts who expect the old reality to continue and reward the inside traders who make the changes to the rules. This movie will not end well, but when will it end??? DLS
  • JB
    John B.
    20 November 2019 @ 20:35
    Keith is always snarky about cnbc, and cramer, I really worry about people who show arrogance and try to lift their image by making fun of others. The reality is most of these fund managers have underperformed over the past 10 years compared to the market
    • RT
      Rex T.
      21 November 2019 @ 01:59
      The reality is the less smart sounding guys also have real jobs and investment mandates. Not punting on EURUSD. This is entertainment which can be fun.
    • tc
      t c.
      21 November 2019 @ 10:53
      Watch his macro show. He's like crusader rabbit. Take that out and the show could be good.
  • dm
    david m.
    20 November 2019 @ 20:00
    Probably the best intro I've seen yet. Thank you.
  • TW
    Tyler W.
    20 November 2019 @ 19:56
    Great interview. One of the best I have listened to.
  • CJ
    Charles J.
    20 November 2019 @ 18:50
    Get these guys together more often. They have great chemistry.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    20 November 2019 @ 18:29
    Thanks Raoul for getting us the 90 day free trial for Hedgeye’s work. Becoming more familiar with their process really helped to get the most out of this video. Excellent interview you guys.
    • AL
      Alexander L.
      20 November 2019 @ 22:25
      How to get 90 day free trial for Hedgeye?
    • PG
      Pinchas G.
      21 November 2019 @ 01:05
      How?
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      21 November 2019 @ 09:32
      Hey Alex and Pinchas - Raoul offered renewing Macro Insiders subscribers a 90 day trial to Hedgeye
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      26 November 2019 @ 17:22
      Thanks!
  • DP
    Daniel P.
    20 November 2019 @ 18:19
    Great interview - wish Raoul had dug a little deeper into Keith's view on the dollar having reached a longterm peak though - I personally particularly want to hear the counterarguments to the whole line of thinking on a dollar shortage, search for yield, dollar milkshake etc
  • SS
    Steve S.
    20 November 2019 @ 17:58
    When Raoul and Keith get together, magic happens. The best interviews are when they are both talking with each other. Long Real Vision, Long Hedgeye, Short CNBC
  • RM
    Richard M.
    20 November 2019 @ 17:50
    Raoul/Keith, great interview, really enjoyed it. Hope you do this on a regular cycle (every 3 months or 6 months, whatever works for you). Milton, not really enjoying the new screen layout (reduced size of the video window to make room for the right side slide bar of other videos). You're wasting valuable screen space for a non-essential feature. You can get a list of the other videos by just selecting "videos" from the top bar. I know you can increase the video window to full size but that is, or was, really unnecessary in the previous layout. Just my 2 cents. Thanks.
    • RA
      Robert A.
      20 November 2019 @ 18:24
      Don’t know if this helps, but I noticed the same thing, but was able by “finger separating” to get the video onto the full screen.
  • JT
    Joseph T.
    20 November 2019 @ 17:28
    Brilliant. Just brilliant. Always learn so much from these 2 guys converse.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    20 November 2019 @ 17:11
    going to ride quad3 (inflation rising, gdp slowing) until it changes, Quad3 is a stockpickers dream... month by month...,
  • HO
    H2 O.
    20 November 2019 @ 16:58
    This interview seems a bit disingenuous because RP's doom looper outlook has been a money loser (except for E$ option). Everyone else is always wrong...need less commiserating and more intellectual honesty.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      20 November 2019 @ 20:35
      I dunno. I'm a Macro Insiders subscriber and have made money in Gold, NBtcoin, Treasuries and the USD this year.
  • JJ
    Jimmy J.
    20 November 2019 @ 16:18
    Awesome video... thank you. Just as pessimism can lead astray, so can optimism. And US stock markets have become psychotically optimistic.
  • GF
    George F.
    20 November 2019 @ 15:39
    An entire Real Vision video without gold or bitcoin. Wow!
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      20 November 2019 @ 20:34
      For Hedgeye subscribers, that statement will more than likely raise a wry grin. It did with me. Follow the Hedgeye twitter feed to see why.
  • JK
    Jay K.
    20 November 2019 @ 15:33
    Quad 4... sounds ominous.
  • JD
    John D.
    20 November 2019 @ 15:03
    One minor point of confusion. I thought Hedgeye was a research platform. Yet Keith speaks as though he's running a fund. Do they actually run any money? Just curious.
    • MW
      Mark W.
      20 November 2019 @ 15:27
      He runs his own money
    • JD
      John D.
      20 November 2019 @ 16:11
      Gotcha. Thanks Mark.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      20 November 2019 @ 16:12
      He runs his own money according to his process and gives real time alerts when he buys and sells.
    • RT
      Rex T.
      21 November 2019 @ 02:00
      I’ll leave you to decide which business line is more profitable :)
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    20 November 2019 @ 14:46
    Fantastic interview, HE is great
  • GK
    Giannis K.
    20 November 2019 @ 14:29
    "and you got the PHD"; im in pain now cause i laughed too hard for too long.
    • RU
      Roberto U.
      20 November 2019 @ 21:19
      Right! In the market what matters is not your Phd, it's your P&L !
  • fc
    flavio c.
    20 November 2019 @ 13:19
    If you are a Hedgeye subscriber, that should not be anything new to you, but he outline with details his views in the last Quads change. And is always a pleasure to listen to it
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    20 November 2019 @ 12:19
    When these 2 get together you just know it's gonna be special. You can tell they're both as happy as pigs in sh*t when they get the opportunity to discuss what they love. And you can see the respect there for each other. Absolutely fantastic interview. Can anyone help me with sort of time frame Keith uses for his risk ranges?. Or with the SD mentioned in the bollinger bands. What time frame is useful here?. Thanks.
    • FE
      Francisco E.
      20 November 2019 @ 16:01
      I dont know if this will help but I saw on one of his tweets - low end of the immediate term range is on his risk range.
    • JT
      Joseph T.
      20 November 2019 @ 17:29
      He publishes risk ranges daily to subscribers of the Hedgeye 'Risk Range' product
    • JJ
      Jimmy J.
      20 November 2019 @ 17:47
      Their real time alerts product where Keith executes trades are typically what they call trade (3 weeks or less) and/or trend (3 months or more). Their tail (3 yrs or less) is typically not traded in real time alerts. It would be more helpful to see the portfolio obviously, but Keith is (understandably) resistant. So, it really just helps to augment shorter-term trading around core positions set out by the hedgeye "GIP" (growth/inflation/policy) model. Hope that helps-
    • SM
      Stephen M.
      20 November 2019 @ 20:24
      Brilliant, Jimmy. Thank you so much.
    • PD
      Patrick D.
      20 November 2019 @ 22:24
      Stephen, Keith is a believer in fractal mathematics. He uses rescaled range analysis for the Risk Ranges. The body of knowledge published by Benoit Mandelbrot will be useful to understand this. Have fun
  • MN
    Michael N.
    20 November 2019 @ 11:12
    Outstanding interview. Raoul did an outstanding job conducting this interview and making it into a high level conversation. His remarkable ability to recall narratives (sciver on real vision talking Tesla) and focusing on whats Keith position and trading against his viewpoint. This is the hardest thing to do but Keith uses his quad model to set a running clock on when inflation will slow and revert to quad4. This overall seems to relate to sokoloff interview that the last runs of the cycle can be the most asset inflated runs but the most difficult to trade when you see a giant storm on the horizon. Well done! Also a hedgeye subscriber and these 2 are always a must see!
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    20 November 2019 @ 11:11
    Absolutely top notch discussion between two macro giants that I could have listened to for hours more! In all the years I have been lucky enough to be a RV subscriber, I have watched some invaluable videos and learnt so much, but this just might be the very best one of all. So many market insights and sound advice imparted! Thanks Keith and Raoul!
  • JB
    Jack B.
    20 November 2019 @ 09:54
    Fantastic interview as always! 2020 could be interesting?
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    20 November 2019 @ 09:52
    Excellent. A great run through the world
    • tr
      tom r.
      21 November 2019 @ 02:57
      Excellent interview. Another guy who has a weekly video is Ciovacco Capital. The show only historical data from similar time periods. The past couple weeks he has shown the effects of the largest segments of the population, now the millennials, approaching their peak earning and spending years. It is similar to the Bill Clinton years when the boomers were the largest segment. I'm sure this must have a meaningful effect on the economy. The boomers were a distinct factor in the market run at that time. I would like to see you do an interview with Ciovacco to discuss this factor sometime. Your photographer as usual didn't get the quant charts in focus so you couldn't read them. Pls make him aware how important that is. TR