Ken Gronbach & Michael Williams – Le Club B

Featuring Ken Gronbach, Michael Williams

Ken Gronbach & Michael Williams share their opinions on economic fear-mongering, and why they believe that the demographic influx of new consumers in the form of millennials will boost the economy.
www.demogronomics.com

Published on
14 July, 2016
Topic
Psychology, US Economy, Global Outlook
Duration
63 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
113

Comments

  • SC

    Suchote C.

    17 7 2017 05:46

    0       0

    Love their optimism ! Would be great to see another interview five years from now to see how their bets have faired

  • CG

    Cody G.

    8 12 2016 19:03

    0       0

    catching this one late, but Wow. Makes me feel so much better about the future.

  • JF

    John F.

    31 10 2016 00:59

    0       0

    Syskel & Ebert's economic demand spiritual rally.

  • ma

    mary a.

    24 8 2016 02:28

    0       0

    Yes, I am having internet feed problems too. Milton is trying to help by guiding me through fixes on my end. However it is not clear to me that it isn't a band-width problem that their new functionality may have induced? stay tuned.

  • JB

    Jenny B.

    5 8 2016 10:10

    0       0

    What passion and optimism, but the comment about the kids "they don't see color.......they are wonderful to each other" is so encouraging! Sounds like good things coming!

  • bm

    brian m.

    1 8 2016 22:49

    0       0

    Id like to hear what Rick Rule has to say about his last point on energy Debt

  • DS

    David S.

    1 8 2016 10:32

    0       0

    Thanks RV - overall an interesting subject that does deserve a place on the radar. However, I do not believe the velocity of money is at 5.... what else have they misstated...

  • GC

    Grant C.

    31 7 2016 09:15

    1       0

    Politically incorrect comments about Muslims in Europe. Having said that, terrorism seems to be occurring on a weekly basis there now.

  • ZY

    ZHENG Y.

    30 7 2016 17:22

    0       0

    Good way of thinking for things that about to happen. Will this time is different? wait...different from what? did history repeat itself? yes, but also depends on how did you view it. Some ppl see the bad things repeat, on the other side ppl see the good things repeat.

  • us

    urska s.

    29 7 2016 17:01

    3       0

    Comments! What’s up with this preoccupation that 1+1 is actually 2?! Not when you define the math (aka you are the government). You are so dumbed down by using models, that you can’t even see that there is no model! Watch Pippa’s 1st interview – that scissor move, that is your answer people!
    China is excited about their prospects that’s why Xi can tackle AND win anything he touches. Sure global economy health matters but it is ONLY a drag!
    Also, by definition, in recessions/depressions people stay too pessimistic for too long. Ponder on that one for a minute.
    Here you have a beautiful interview that explains so elegantly in everyday language why it is time you go long life. They really nailed it with fear. Think about it and notice it pretty much everywhere you look today – even with the RV founders. It is collective and pervasive and it is our biggest issue in 21 century yet. We are all afraid for ourselves, we need to get over it.

  • MH

    Mark H.

    25 7 2016 17:27

    9       1

    This Time is Different.... 1) The business cycle doesn't exist anymore. 2) Stock valuations don't matter anymore. 3) There is no such thing as too much debt, anymore. 4) Forget the demographics of retiring Baby Boomers and the impact on Social Security and Medicare 5.) Don't worry, be happy!

  • BM

    B. M.

    20 7 2016 14:39

    3       0

    I believe Mr. Howe has a more nuanced approach to this subject.

  • IV

    Ian V.

    19 7 2016 21:34

    8       2

    Very interesting - both from a content perspective but especially for helping me see and note my internal extreme distrust of positive people like them. It challenged my mental disposition and biases because I find bullishness to be a signal of deceitfulness, a sign of selling something without anything behind it. I think their facts are 100% straight but they aren't believable to me because they are happy - which is a terrible bias but one I've built up living in the US economy for the last 20 years (dealing with boomer leadership in my companies). The fact of the FL public employees cheering post-rebuttal would be a signal to me of a danger of a scheme.

    Thus, I don't think fear is the problem at all - I believe it is that most products, services, science and thinking are fluff and do not add real value, have nothing behind it and are essentially schemes (Pokemon GO?). Why keep a lot of money in a savings account? Because many things to buy are mostly schemes and minimally value-add like a VW diesel at $30K that supposedly had low emissions or "RoboAdvisors". If you believe Gen Y are smart consumers, then you know why they don't spend money. It's not fear. It's wisdom. It's calling "BS" on the boomer economy. It's focusing on real value, not schemes. It's repudiating the financial concept of fractional banking that has seeped into culture and non-financial business where only about 5% of something is valuable and the rest is fluff or net-negative. It's saying what's real, what is truly valuable to me, to society. Is home ownership really a value-add and a "must" - no it's not but the usage of mortgage financing on a large scale does help certain people in the economy and we all know why home ownership is encouraged now after 2008. Not fear of another blow up, just realistic about what matters.

  • DC

    Dave C.

    19 7 2016 06:51

    3       0

    I enjoyed watching the video and am fascinated by the subject of demographics but was not convinced by the happy talk. The critique offered by Klendathu C. is on the mark IMHO
    For people interested in the earth population topic, I recommend a BBC TV documentary on population - now on youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UbmG8gtBPM

  • S

    Simon .

    18 7 2016 22:16

    12       1

    A bit like religion you have to be a 'believer' to believe. Some of the facts "stock market doesn't take long to recover" (so don't be afraid) is just plain wrong. After the 29 crash it took about 25 years to get back to the level, and the Nikkei is well below its nearly 40k level in '87. And Africa being the centre of growth because of a population explosion? I have a bridge I want to sell you........

  • JM

    James M.

    18 7 2016 17:40

    3       5

    All seems rather optimistic to me. They do not cover the ramifications of Climate change rising sea levels, Degradation of arable productive land for food production, Global droughts, Unimaginable global debt levels, Plutocratic dysfunctional political systems in the EM and DM, Global corruption, Neo Con imperial ambition in the USA leading to possible global conflict with the ramifications of MIRV ICBMS which did not exist during the other global conflicts, Degradation of many of the Earths systems which provide the raw materials for any growth expansion, Corporate criminality and fraud on a scale surpassing the 1920s, Geopolitical upheaval everywhere, The break down of the social contract all over the developed world, increasing income equality. To cover just a few there are many more. They also failed to mention the study of the carrying capacity of the Earth with China, India, Russia, Africa, S America all pursuing a lifestyle that the West has enjoyed since the end of the second World War. Yes maybe this would be possible with a tectonic paradigm shift into renewable energy, but it seems unlikely that the conventional energy Industry will allow this in time to offset the other issues.

  • M.

    Milton ..

    18 7 2016 15:32

    0       0

    Facts before hype: https://gallery.mailchimp.com/451473e81730c5a3ae680c489/images/d879b4b3-4cc7-48d2-b338-08f9801ebb36.jpg

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    18 7 2016 14:41

    2       1

    I understand that demographics are absolutely key to the future and forecasting the long term economic changes that are going to come. BUT, Ken and Mike seem to have a somewhat polarised view of the future and that all of the coming problems will simply be swamped by the positive impact of demographics. I just don't see it.

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    18 7 2016 13:43

    0       0

    I think Thomas W's comment below was the best analysis.

  • GS

    GRANT S.

    18 7 2016 05:39

    3       0

    Fantastically positive and full of perspective....reminds me of my wife's favourite saying (she is in insurance)...99% of what you worry about NEVER HAPPENS!

  • SS

    Stewart S.

    18 7 2016 02:21

    1       0

    Basically correct about the future. It is just that people have no patience when scared

  • AG

    Alex G.

    17 7 2016 23:32

    2       0

    1) This whole video makes me think. Be short financial innovation but long human innovation.

    2), If I remember correctly, Niel Howe spoke about how millennials prefer living in apartments. As a millennial myself, I agree with that and love my apartment. Further, I quite often see facebook posts with articles attached with titles along the theme of "why buying a home is not a good idea". Although this may be too much
    bias, I don't see myself buying a home unless they go on a huge sale, and I don't expect my friends will continue to rent for quite some time. Especially since we're on the "don't get married early or at all" bandwagon.

  • AV

    Alvern V.

    17 7 2016 23:24

    8       0

    Demographics I believe have a huge impact on the economy, but Gronbach and William's numbers are a little off from numbers based on my homework. My research suggest peak spending is closer to age 45-47. That means the Boomer has peaked and the Millennials won't get there until 2025-2129. I see slowing growth in rate of change terms, a peaking debt cycle and Declining Demographics for another 10 years or so. I agree with other comments...Need a reset of asset prices first, then wait for the Millennials to get a little older. Although the last big boom started in 1982 when the Boomers were just 37. The front end of the Millennials are about age 34.

  • CC

    Charles C.

    17 7 2016 23:00

    11       0

    A very interesting big picture presentation, but short on data and long on hype. Premise may be correct over a long period of time but I prefer Neil Howe' approach. Just for the record the PE on the S&P500 on 1/1/82 was 7.73 versus today's 25+/-. It isn't just demographics that drive markets. Unless we can believe that either (1) PE's are permanently at a new higher plateau, or (2) earnings will grow at rates sufficient to overcome PE reversion then I think the comparison fails.

  • MM

    MZ M.

    17 7 2016 22:15

    8       0

    Once again RVTV has brought its viewers something that makes us all think and consider or re-consider our assumptions and positions. Agree or disagree with the presentation - i think there's plenty of room for both in this one without taking it further with facts, the dollar system -reset, amount of derivatives that could domino. But unless and until that happens this presentation has obviously struck many nerves and that is good for us all to see how it brings the interaction alive. One of the presenters did say his background was MARKETING! right? poor beavers.....

  • DG

    Detlef G.

    17 7 2016 21:53

    11       4

    They are masters of the obvious. Of course demographics are important but other things are as well. Ken Gronbach used to be a marketer. Now he invented a new and catchy(?) term, demogronomics, and is marketing his firm of the same name. They seem more like used car salesmen. I stopped watching after 30 minutes. No useful information.

  • AH

    ANNIE H.

    17 7 2016 21:45

    4       0

    Thank you for this. The concept that makes this work is that we cannot even imagine the future. So don't bother trying. It will create itself. Trying to make it fit into an existing paradigm is what is bothersome. As a parent, I am looking for the possibility that my children will enjoy their lives as much as I am enjoying mine, and can create their own wealth and not depend on what their parents have left them. From this point of view this presentation is very helpful."Your children live in the house of tomorrow, which you cannot visit, not even in your dreams. " K. Gibran. However, I don't discount the coming of the "great reset." Sometimes a real thumping, a violent noisy destruction speeds the resolution. It is not human nature to sit helplessly in chaos for long. At some point, things will clear. We rarely talk about "what next" after the dust settles. This was a good conversation about that.

  • CB

    C B.

    17 7 2016 20:38

    6       1

    Totally disagree with the comment that Europeans are buying bonds out of fear. WRONG. They are buying bonds out of 1) greed, front-running the central banks and anticipating further capital gains 2) necessity, to have adequate collateral per banking regulation. The reasons may be just as wrongfooted as buying out of fear, but the implications are completely different. Sorry guys, this analysis is overly facile.

  • CB

    C B.

    17 7 2016 20:38

    6       1

    Totally disagree with the comment that Europeans are buying bonds out of fear. WRONG. They are buying bonds out of 1) greed, front-running the central banks and anticipating further capital gains 2) necessity, to have adequate collateral per banking regulation. The reasons may be just as wrongfooted as buying out of fear, but the implications are completely different. Sorry guys, this analysis is overly facile.

  • PU

    Peter U.

    17 7 2016 13:56

    2       2

    Wow, these guys can't see the forest for the trees!

  • JH

    Joel H.

    17 7 2016 10:28

    7       0

    Wish there was more hard data presented, and less stories or examples off examples. Wasn't sure if there was any data on demographics?

  • DS

    DAVID S.

    17 7 2016 09:13

    3       1

    Huge thanks for that!!!!!!! I was trying to find popular serious guys conveying these messages because this is one of my theme for my portfolio. You energized my belief thank you

  • BY

    Brian Y.

    17 7 2016 05:40

    12       0

    Everything is wonderful...just play Pokemon GO and don't worry...

  • RA

    Robert A.

    17 7 2016 03:56

    3       0

    Wow, these demographic guys are high energy. Put these two guys and Harry Dent in a room and they would suck the air right out of it. Seriously, thanks RV we need to hear this "macro macro" point of view.

  • fc

    frank c.

    16 7 2016 19:39

    10       2

    sounds like a multilevel marketing pitch!! Great how they explain how the new generations are all better educated and will have such enormous incomes? where is that coming from? the next generation seems to be far less educated and are mostly working in fast food chains, nothing good can come from that I guess.

  • SB

    Sergei B.

    16 7 2016 18:47

    2       1

    Amen

  • MS

    Michael S.

    16 7 2016 17:48

    5       2

    This could be the future after we get through the disastererdisaster of the next 25 years. What are these guys smoking

  • RB

    Robert B.

    16 7 2016 16:02

    5       1

    I'm sure these guys are back logged with speaking gigs at all the "old Wall" brokerage firms preaching "stocks for the long run" and "you can't time the market" and " the business cycle is dead". For real, world class, well researched demography I would follow Neil Howe. Www.hedgeye.com. Neil believes we are only halfway through the "fourth turning."

  • RB

    Robert B.

    16 7 2016 15:58

    15       3

    Wow! Amateur hour demographers.

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    16 7 2016 14:09

    5       1

    Some thought provocative stuff which made me watch to the end, but to be honest, I can't really take anyone serious who doesn't back up their data, especially text and especially for a writer. A few minute investment for the potential to save months of work?! That's like an option for a possible infinite return...

  • JC

    John C.

    16 7 2016 12:30

    0       1

    Good content

  • AB

    Alain B.

    16 7 2016 12:23

    8       0

    I like the presentation and welcome their point of view. I might not entirely agree with their thesis but I welcome a positive outlook on our future, realistic or not. As for the value, it did bring a good debate as per comments below. RVTV brought us more food for thoughts, thank you.

  • RF

    Richard F.

    16 7 2016 08:00

    8       9

    Stopped watching after the beaver story. Hope someone does the same to them.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    16 7 2016 06:53

    1       0

    Read the exact same thing in the book "Boom, Bust and Echo" by David Foot. I agree with these two gentlemen, but, come on, guys!! Let us humans have our fun! We humans are worry warts. We worry about everything until it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy! So until the markets crash and everything goes to shit, let us wallow in our wine and then once everything collapses in a heap, we can then look around and say "Alright, let's start over!" Besides, Regulation is what trips us up. Regulation of banks, markets, business, investment, homes, people.....

  • RM

    Ross M.

    16 7 2016 05:43

    2       0

    I agree with the optomism here but they ignore the distortions in the economy caused by Central Bankers. The boom will come after we have Gold to Dow 1:1 meaning no Central Bank interference, low debt, market interest rates with sound saving and investment, at the moment Government and finance are way to big an impediment to a healthy economy. Bring on the forest fire of Gold to Dow 1:1 that will be healing.

  • J

    Jason .

    15 7 2016 18:56

    1       0

    Very interesting and thought provoking (as with all the videos). I am left thinking about this from an allocation standpoint. The economy is not the market. What is the historical evidence for the waves of demographics and the returns on equities?

  • LA

    Linda A.

    15 7 2016 15:50

    8       1

    Bad comment regarding lovely beavers!

  • RM

    Repost M.

    15 7 2016 15:42

    17       0

    Best bull case I've heard, but as millennial they are way too optimistic about my generation on the aggregate. Incomes are low, debt is high, and collectivist/minimalist world view are not bullish for markets. Millennial income spread/work ethic has a barbell distribution based on anecdotal evidence from peer group.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    15 7 2016 15:34

    6       0

    These guys are fearlessly funny! They have some good points- demographics matter but so does fiscal & monetary policy. In my opinion, the US should cut people off the welfare system who do not need it. Besides innovation, we need to increase productivity. In my parents' generation people were ashamed to be on welfare and even had the consciousness to want to pay it back. Welfare should exist to temporarily help people to get out of a bad rut. All the hand-outs & corruption is killing our economy & productivity.

  • JF

    Jonathan F.

    15 7 2016 15:18

    6       0

    a dollar moves through the system 5X... over what period? Another video indicates the dollars that were printed over the last few years have a velocity of 1.6 (going by memory... less than 5 anyway).

  • JF

    Jonathan F.

    15 7 2016 14:49

    1       0

    OK this may be scripted, but I wonder... I have heard Gen Y people talk just like this: http://www.break.com/video/college-kids-wont-say-man-isnt-65-chinese-woman-3014693

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    15 7 2016 12:27

    0       0

    Loved it

  • PR

    Pedro R.

    15 7 2016 09:55

    3       1

    Very provocative bull case for the bear investor.

  • OT

    Oliver T.

    15 7 2016 08:45

    21       0

    He said birthrates in Poland are high, the only country in Europe above 2.1, this is untrue they are closer to 1.3. If a professed expert in demographics cant remember the one county in Europe with positive demographics I question the rigidity of their research. Im not saying they are wrong however this is a red flag against their credibility.

  • PS

    Paul S.

    15 7 2016 08:37

    8       0

    SPOOS 1982 PE in 1982 - 7
    SPOOS 2016 PE in 2016 -20

    Intrigued as to what they think the Gen Y $100K per annum households have been spending on so far?

    The trillions in cash aren't for spending - so forget the multiplier - they are meant to generate a retirement income. Central Banking madness is making that tough.

    Step outside the USA and property prices are in a bubble Gen Y has no interest in buying.

  • Pd

    Paul d.

    15 7 2016 06:43

    2       0

    Very thought provoking presentation. If the case they are making is realistic, then there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The growth discussed could conceivably address the debt problem the world faces, as well as most of the other problems discussed in these videos (e.g growth of GDP, employment, personal income, as well as return to normal interest rates). Several questions though - 1. I have always heard the next generation(s) will not be large enough to support the baby boom in old age, so all these years has this been just an urban legend? 2. For the past year the financial press has often written about the low investment returns we can expect for the next 10+ years - - didn't anyone making these forecasts check out the demographics? Or were they all based on extrapolating the current situation? I recently viewed the 2015 Bill White interview, and part of his his answer to "how does this end" included government(s) facilitating growth in various politically difficult ways as the best (and most unlikely) solution . If the information presented here holds water, the growth may come from demographics. Would definitely change my outlook if it does.

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    15 7 2016 06:26

    36       1

    Likable guys. Compelling presentation. Glad to see it.

    AND, I don't buy the argument that ... to paraphrase ... the only thing to fear is fear itself.

    Granted, it's easy to be paralyzed by fear, and most fears aren't really justified or are overblown That said, you're whistling past the graveyard when you treat all the conditions that trigger fear as inconsequential.

    The fear that abounds isn't confined to a fear of events. It's a justifiable fear that something isn't right at the heart of the system, a fear of the extreme fragility of a very complex and what I would call a sick system. And just because it hasn't reached its moment of truth doesn't mean it won't.

    There's a reason the indices are at record levels and it isn't primarily because of baby boomer demand, although that obviously played a big role. It's because of what Richard Duncan calls creditism, the financing of consumption via endlessly expanding credit, not via the savings and investment born of naturally occurring "organic " growth. We conjured trillions from nothing and threw a party.

    And I would venture to say that every positive trend you guys focus on is either the result of or is amplified by the credit creation bubble that's developed over the last 45 years.

    Now, if you think that kind of something-for-nothing world can be sustained indefinitely, then I buy your rosy scenario for the future, as I agree the impact of demographics is profound. But I don't think there's a prayer of that happening. Absent the extreme measures being taken in 2008-2009, the whole system would have collapsed in a steaming heap. Why? Because the system itself is a house of cards that's being endlessly propped up by extreme measures.

    So, you can layer all the demographic demand potential you want on top of a fundamentally unsound system and you still have an unsound system ... a currently stable disequilibrium in the process of transforming to an unstable disequilibrium IMO.

    But please don't take this as anything other than an observation. Again, a thought-provoking presentation

  • SJ

    Suzanne J.

    15 7 2016 05:54

    2       3

    It's the big picture and thank you for telling it. Great stuff.

  • DW

    David W.

    15 7 2016 04:54

    10       0

    Did I hear correctly? On current demographic births Japan will not exist by 2050.....doubt it

  • jd

    john d.

    15 7 2016 03:57

    5       0

    I think the value of this presentation is that there is light after the bust.

    Judging from the many enlightened comments here and views of other presenters we have to have the bust/ reset first.

    Keep the powder dry and safe until that occurs (soon?) and then be brave to invest in the companies that will benefit from the 'egg in the python' but not before.

  • sb

    sandeep b.

    15 7 2016 02:25

    18       4

    whats with this 60 mins sales pitch about a basic topic other great minds on this site have explained on this very site in 5 mins or less.

    garbage. #tuneitdownwiththebs.

  • GS

    Greg S.

    15 7 2016 02:15

    0       0

    Would anyone like to put odds on their being correct?

  • FD

    Francois-Guy D.

    15 7 2016 01:36

    22       0

    Of course demographics are important. But it's still only one piece of the very complex puzzle that we humans have created.
    These guys want to make the situation look simple when it's not.

  • RE

    Rachel E.

    15 7 2016 01:32

    15       11

    Not a Real TV caliber guys.

  • MH

    Michael H.

    15 7 2016 01:24

    11       0

    Certainly a macro thesis should begin with the underlying demographics, and they make a good point about the demography of the US. After that, though, they reminded me of Chris Farley saying "get long" before I ended up like them, living in a van down by the river.

  • BC

    Burton C.

    15 7 2016 00:32

    18       5

    I want to be respectful and don't want to trash a comment board, but I just have to say this. First I am not a touchy feely guy, not politically correct, not even a green, but that opening "joke" was so distasteful that I couldn't get it out of my mind for the rest of the presentation. I mean seriously he sets you up for a feel good solution for the beavers then offends you. Really... what kind of an idiot does that?

  • GH

    Gregory H.

    15 7 2016 00:32

    31       3

    I always like when Real Vision does interviews about demographics, but these guys just are assuming more people will lead to greater spending... Totally ignored the fact that there is a personal income shortage for a very large portion of the population and that the coming AI, automation, and robotics wave will continue to pressure the need for human labor and income growth, even with population increases... And they total glossed over the fact that private sector debt papered over a lot of the personal income problems pre-financial crisis

  • SS

    Scuba S.

    14 7 2016 22:31

    9       2

    Finally something for the mentally tired bears. We have a lot to look forward to the sooner we can get through the short term.

  • DS

    David S.

    14 7 2016 21:14

    7       0

    Demographics of atoms in a chemistry test tube is very predictive. Human beings not so much. It is interesting that they start out with human demographics means everything. Then fear, anxiety, investment horizons, geopolitics and every other thing must be brought into the equations. I preferred Harry Dent's interview on demographics published on March 7, 2016.

  • DM

    Dom M.

    14 7 2016 20:55

    17       1

    We need a reset first,then Generation Y will be in a position to take advantage.

  • NF

    Nat F.

    14 7 2016 20:41

    27       0

    These dudes demographics dictate that they lived through the greatest credit expansion in history. Of course their perspective has been formed of the view that there is always another buyer.

  • GR

    Gregory R.

    14 7 2016 20:38

    17       1

    Their conclusions are too presumptive. A new wave of ‘Xers’ can falter as easily as they can thrive. Our current fiscal and monetary problems are no joke as our economy could be suppressed for decades. The new demographic wave that is coming in could easily be wiped out by the older wave that will be moving out. Only unfettered capitalism and free markets can produce the economic growth that they are so giddy about. However, the rise of “debtism” may have mortally impaired that classical capitalist model.

  • db

    don b.

    14 7 2016 19:39

    20       1

    I don't care if there are 9 Trillion people or 9 if they have over 200 Trillion dollars of fiat debt with nothing backing it at some point Gresham's Law takes over and people flee paper money. Keynesianism is dead man walking, and the rows and rows of unsold $78,000. Chevy Tahoe's are the tell tale sign. It's over and if the collusive forces of Government and the Fed were not making up economic stats as they go, and selling massive naked Au & Ag contracts the world would see a dead Canary.

  • EM

    Emanuel M.

    14 7 2016 19:29

    19       4

    Fascinating, I disagree with almost everything. Especially regarding europe. I do not see people leave europe because of takeover of different cultures. It is far more likely for europe to lock itself up, close every border and intervene directly in north africa to prevent people coming over the sea

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    14 7 2016 18:52

    48       2

    Thought provoking and very convincing. They make excellent points. Except no one has yet explained to me how you unwind the biggest sovereign bond bubble in history without breaking a few things? How do we go from record low interest rates and record high debt levels to not only a self sustaining but an accelerating economy? Interest rates cannot rise. The only reason you buy a German bund at -0.5% is because you think some other fool will buy it at -0.51%. What happens when the market runs out of fools to sell to? That unwind won't be peaceful. That doesn't mean we can't go higher till that inflection point, but we cannot get to higher growth without a change in interest rates and a rerating of debt.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    14 7 2016 18:33

    5       1

    Unbelivable good!

  • IF

    Ian F.

    14 7 2016 18:32

    9       1

    I work for one of the largest homebuilders in the US. The coming housing shortage is something we strongly believe in, and in fact is already occurring. But it continues to be the biggest untold story in the industry.

  • GH

    Gloria H.

    14 7 2016 18:18

    25       1

    I can't quibble with what they're saying, but another term for "being too early in the market" is "wrong." Also, theirs is a very macro view that doesn't take into account the explosion of leverage, derivatives, etc. that the world's economis may not be able to support. Before we start thinking about the very long-term we need to work through how we get there. I have no doubt we will, but frankly, this presentation is a little superficial.

  • PM

    Peter M.

    14 7 2016 18:04

    8       0

    does any one else have problems with internet with these videos. I travel with work and need to use hotel internet. I have many problems now with feed. it is painfull

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    14 7 2016 18:00

    3       2

    Super, Great, as I said a 1000 times before, thinks will be o.k. Long since 2. Feb 2016 and up 28% since then. Stay strong, stay long!

  • JC

    Joe C.

    14 7 2016 17:43

    12       1

    Very good piece. However I think it is a longer term view and is not reflective of shorter time frames such as 1 to 2 years. with regards to managing money.

  • DW

    David W.

    14 7 2016 17:38

    5       1

    What???

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 7 2016 17:35

    3       1

    Whatever Harry Dent says, should we just do the opposite? Or is a broken clock right once or twice?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 7 2016 17:34

    0       0

    Is there a place where we can find the names of these two?

  • WE

    William E.

    14 7 2016 17:17

    3       1

    YEA!

  • pf

    paul f.

    14 7 2016 17:12

    9       7

    Okay "Goldbugs" poke holes in this conversations. This is one of the most thought provoking I thing that I have listened to,maybe, ever

  • DF

    David F.

    14 7 2016 17:12

    6       0

    Nice piece proving that Realvision is not a bear fest. Harry Dent has similar positive outlook for US but only starting 2020-2023 if I remember correctly.

  • DR

    De R.

    14 7 2016 16:37

    2       0

    I wonder how uber, airbnb and the likes are going to distort their view.