Hugh Hendry – Master Class

Featuring Hugh Hendry

Hugh Hendry, Founder & CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, joins us this week to take his place in the hallowed halls of Masterclass. In this exceptional hour-long interview covering a wide range of topics from the macro implications behind U.S. interest rates and their effect on treasuries, to the change in China’s economic model from production to consumption, to the global opportunities and vulnerabilities he sees, this is an interview you’ll be re-watching for months.

Published on
11 March, 2016
Topic
Monetary policy, Investment Framework, Macro
Duration
70 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
105

Comments

  • AF

    Aidan F.

    6 9 2017 15:52

    0       0

    like this guys style

  • JW

    James W.

    12 6 2017 04:00

    1       2

    20 minutes in and wondering how far I want to go with this useless rambling waste of time.

  • VV

    Vanessa V.

    24 4 2017 12:27

    0       0

    Fascinating interview. Just wondering how President Trump's threats to potentially change the terms of trade with China could impact on China's decision to devalue its currency? And, if China is setting itself up to trade for oil etc using Yuan backed by gold as per Luke Gromen's thesis, would this make it easier for China to devalue without negatively impacting its role in global trade? i.e. Would it be possible for them to devalue without the 'jump out of the hotel window' scenario Hugh is describing?

  • A1

    Animal 1.

    13 2 2017 22:59

    0       0

    Fantastic to revisit this video. Thank you :-)

  • MS

    Matt S.

    30 10 2016 15:45

    3       0

    Not feeling it - had hardly any idea what he was talking about. I'm sure he's smart and makes money but... I think he's been watching too many Gary Oldman interviews.

  • DS

    David S.

    28 7 2016 01:26

    1       0

    For me the best interview of the last year to get a trading perspective; not an individual trade. Is the tide coming in or going out? Wait until the trade starts to work and then push, push, push. Do not round trip, be happy - take the profit. Thanks. DLS

  • JC

    John C.

    11 7 2016 21:28

    0       0

    very interesting back and forth between Raoul and Hugh enjoyed it, but I'm more in the former's camp. China will gradually devalue and won't give a damn how it might or might not affect their citizens..they will just do it

  • AB

    Alfred B.

    20 5 2016 10:30

    4       0

    Hugh Hendry is brilliant but my main criticism of his conjecture is that the average man needs to be able to think like Hugh Hendry to be able to navigate through today's world. And that is impossible

  • KO

    K O.

    14 5 2016 04:19

    1       0

    Hugh is a sharp guy whom I respect, but... The arsonists hanging around to put out the fire, courageous? Think the word you are looking for is it took huge 24k Balls!

  • DR

    Dorothee R.

    23 4 2016 14:04

    2       0

    Would it be possible to get the graph of S&P vs UST that is shown?

  • B

    Bojo .

    19 4 2016 12:21

    1       0

    Interesting, but sometimes quite surreal..such as, basically, CBs being people with backbone who stood up against the pressure and did the right thing.. or the US being a benevolent empire...

  • PN

    Paul N.

    2 4 2016 18:11

    3       0

    Best counter argument to Raoul's thesis. The China deval argument is based fundamentally on that they will be forced to. Hugh's point that they don't have to at all. Great food for thought.

  • E

    Erik .

    30 3 2016 20:50

    2       0

    Refreshing to hear someone raise issue regarding GDP not being captured correctly anymore. Completely agree. Raoul it will indeed be very useful to get more on this (and inflation) topic Made us think

  • RK

    Robert K.

    24 3 2016 08:44

    8       0

    Cannot believe Hugh is praising central bankers. First I though he's being ironic. What do we know about the long term effects of their policies? Nothing.

  • DB

    David B.

    21 3 2016 16:16

    4       0

    My ignorance requires further explanation as to why a CNH deval is the end of the world. Hugh's view of a new Modern Central Bank world could be seen as the ultimate "this time is different" case.

  • S

    Simon .

    21 3 2016 11:53

    11       0

    Interesting interview. I do wonder if he is suffering from Stockholm Syndrome though listening to his views on the CB's

  • NT

    Norman T.

    21 3 2016 06:25

    0       0

    which country was that 'Pier 5' comment about? never heard the name...

  • WH

    Winnie H.

    19 3 2016 16:11

    5       0

    I don't think his reasons for why a China deval would be 'looney tunes' are convincing. Maybe he just doesn't explain them properly. If he were to debate Mark Hart, Mark would win hands down.

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    19 3 2016 13:14

    1       0

    Robert I used to listen to him. Cost ME clients

  • NT

    Norman T.

    19 3 2016 09:59

    1       0

    while transferring to 'those who create wealth' - the 'debtors' you destroy the pension funds and the insurance companies...who are prevented by tradition and regulation from going heavily to equity

  • NT

    Norman T.

    19 3 2016 09:33

    3       5

    Is it a requirement of interviewees and interviewers NOT to shave for 2 days beforehand??!!

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    18 3 2016 21:06

    1       0

    Last 3 years has been to enrich Chinese households and you do that by a strong currency.
    So, how come Yuan has fallen 10% over last year or so?

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    18 3 2016 20:36

    4       0

    He's been negative on USTs while USTs rose 30% last 2-3 years

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    18 3 2016 20:34

    0       0

    Has NOONE heard of US 1920/21?
    http://jonathandaviswm.com/ for speech.

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    18 3 2016 20:32

    3       0

    WTH is he talking about? Capitalism saved the day in 2009? That's a joke right?

  • TS

    Tim S.

    18 3 2016 11:34

    8       0

    There are some gems of wisdom in here. But, the feeling I had is that Hugh's mind works at a million miles an hour and he can end up being disjointed and incoherent. He's also clearly a showman.

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    18 3 2016 01:53

    15       2

    He's either (a) A genius beyond my comprehension or (b) Another salesman peddling excitingly optimistic outcomes from a society with weakening demographics, unsustainable debt & unproductive politics.

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    18 3 2016 01:45

    4       0

    I like hearing many varied opinions. Having said that, not much of what he said resonated with me and when pushed for the 'whys' he didn't really seem to deliver.

  • AE

    Alex E.

    18 3 2016 00:50

    13       3

    "If ya can't dazzle em with brilliance, baffle em with bullshit!' I don't know whether to shit or wind my watch! All over the map, inside/out. back and forth...where does one go with this? more whisky

  • RN

    Robert N.

    17 3 2016 15:43

    8       0

    Used to work for this gentleman. He is very smart and should be listened to.

  • SL

    Steven L.

    17 3 2016 02:35

    6       0

    I'm not a fan of the stream of consciousness presentation style for a subject like this. The nonverbal said he won't be back & that's OK with me. I'm happy to hear coherent contrasting views.

  • DM

    Daniel M.

    16 3 2016 20:01

    0       0

    Amazing!

  • MM

    Michael M.

    16 3 2016 05:45

    4       0

    Hendry is just fun to listen to. A salesman. His performance has been abysmal, and he acknowledges it. He recently used the selling point, "But I survived" to an audience. I'm interested in thriving..

  • GM

    Gerald M.

    15 3 2016 23:56

    1       0

    Fantastic! Getting the opposing viewpoint is critical for transparent dialog. So nice to see! Well done.

  • DC

    Dave C.

    15 3 2016 18:59

    4       0

    Hugh really is pure gallus and I cannot help but be impressed by his presence. That said, the view of a china devaluation leading to a 'mad max world' was backed up by a weak / invisible argument .

  • EK

    Emil K.

    15 3 2016 14:26

    4       0

    Regarding China there are knowledgeable people making excellent points on both sides of the argument. However, the corporations and individuals within China are voting with their money to get out.

  • RN

    Rasmus N.

    15 3 2016 05:58

    0       0

    2/2 A deval will hurt purch power initially, but status quo only functions due to massive financial repression. That’s a cost that shouldn’t be neglected and hindering move to consumption economy

  • RN

    Rasmus N.

    15 3 2016 05:57

    2       0

    1/2 Hugh keeps validating his no-deval argument on China by referring to the rising export share. IMO, export share is rising at the expense of corporate profitability and a huge rise in bad debt.

  • DL

    Derek L.

    14 3 2016 21:52

    9       0

    Great contrarian, independent thinker. I scoff at the notion that CB's are heroic though, Their actions have fostered distorted markets and capital mis-allocation. A hero to the banks only.

  • JS

    John S.

    14 3 2016 17:36

    20       0

    Contrast the humility of Raoul with the supreme confidence of Hugh. 'I won't lose you money'. Until you do!

  • sc

    singyee c.

    14 3 2016 08:26

    4       0

    In 2012, Hendry postulates that the yen would go to 50/60. So much for his contrarian view. Now, he thinks the world is saved from Depression 2 by central bankers. Right again?

  • SD

    Stephen D.

    14 3 2016 07:27

    1       2

    Jay, frictional cost and tax on Gerrman Real Estate can be high, but if you do it smart, yields of 6-8% are easily achieved. And more with (cheap) bank leverage. We do it

  • TL

    T L.

    14 3 2016 05:50

    2       2

    one of the best conversations on RVTV!!

  • DT

    Douglas T.

    13 3 2016 22:10

    3       2

    What a freaksihly brilliant guy, you have to love his outrageous sttatements. Gets you thinking.

  • JM

    Jay M.

    13 3 2016 19:14

    1       2

    Where do you get 6% real estate yield in Germany??? In all but 2 States you pay roughly to exactly 6% Grunderwerbssteuer (tax on buying property), another 2% Grundbucheintrag plus 4.5% broker. <3% net

  • KS

    Kathleen S.

    13 3 2016 12:29

    23       0

    Hugh got burned trying to fight the CB policy, he has taken the blue pill. But, just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't or can't happen. This CB experiment will end in tears

  • HB

    Heini B.

    13 3 2016 09:59

    17       0

    Love the conjecture. But while CBs saved the system in the short run they inspire capital mal-investment which must be detrimental in the long run.

  • MC

    M C.

    13 3 2016 02:43

    3       0

    More differing opinions like Hugh

  • BG

    Bruno G.

    13 3 2016 01:03

    6       0

    What is his track record for making money?

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    12 3 2016 23:51

    3       3

    Hendry's point that China is not in the HF business and doesn't view deval as a HF makes sense. They are in business of Empowering middle class and will do so at a lfinancial loss. Agree.

  • LC

    Liliana C.

    12 3 2016 23:46

    0       0

    Reading other comments...I don't think Tapir and Hendry are saying it's all or nothing regarding peg. They'really saying c that they don't see a large onenough time deval. Rather a more gradual apprch

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    12 3 2016 20:52

    4       2

    Not many people have the intellectually honest dignity to move from one camp (criticising central banks) to another (understanding they had no choice). It may me reconsider my stance

  • DW

    Denny W.

    12 3 2016 20:27

    1       0

    If last few centuries favored creditors does future benefit debtors in new world of zirp and whatever comes next?

  • TK

    Theo K.

    12 3 2016 19:36

    0       0

    Well maybe he is right afterall and there will be no RMB devaluation. This is clear after G20. There seems to be CB coordination on this. China was too big to be left alone...

  • GG

    Guillermo G.

    12 3 2016 18:48

    9       0

    Topic: China´s renminbi devaluation. Mark Hart says it has to happen; Hugh says it will be the end of the world. Boy! When in doubt: gold.

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    12 3 2016 14:05

    9       0

    It seems his 'genius' is to think like a CB and then act like surfer to spot the wave and surf/milk it. The stormy macro environment induced by CBs are what few surfers (HFT) can ride w/o wiping out

  • SS

    Sam S.

    12 3 2016 13:58

    11       0

    Now that's entertainment!

  • JC

    Joel C.

    12 3 2016 13:46

    4       2

    surely that haircut has gone out of fashion if he's from 2017, no? Luv him or hate him, you always learn something from H2. Part 2 please

  • TH

    Tim H.

    12 3 2016 13:41

    3       0

    Nonsense John, there are plenty of Bulls out there.

  • AK

    Aleksander K.

    12 3 2016 08:22

    9       1

    According to filings online the avg annual investment return of his fund Eclectica was close to 3 percent 09-15. Seems very self confident. results speak louder than words perhaps.

  • DR

    Daniel R.

    12 3 2016 06:48

    8       0

    Love anyone who makes me feel this dumb. I was so looking forward to this interview, it could have been a disappointment. But it wasn't. Truly independent mind like Hendry are priceless.

  • GF

    Garrett F.

    12 3 2016 01:31

    2       6

    The most intelligent conversation I've ever seen on global macro, amazing.

  • JA

    John A.

    12 3 2016 01:25

    15       0

    GDP doesn't capture the value that Real Vision brings the world either.

  • BJ

    Brent J.

    12 3 2016 01:14

    26       1

    1 of best interviews yet. Partly bc hes a genius, partly bc he has a different view, partly bc its a 60 minute stream of consciousness and partly bc u can just tell he likes being a prick...

  • GP

    Greg P.

    12 3 2016 00:30

    2       0

    Well said,and well put,David.Not being in the financial services business,I do find it an odd world,but one I am trying to grasp.Not sure what I got out of this interview.

  • DV

    David V.

    12 3 2016 00:15

    17       1

    Break my leg, then give me a crutch & I won't consider it courageous. Like many financial intermediators who profit from the Feds distortions, it's understandable that Hugh is a fan.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    11 3 2016 21:26

    18       0

    That was GREAT. Love an intelligent person arguing a different view & the great questions. So much in this I have to watch again. Like creative ways of tninking. Fascinating agreement from difference.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    11 3 2016 21:21

    3       0

    TESLA, Google, Energy Revolution (Solar, Wind), Biotech Revolution would not be here, if Greenspan would not have destroyed the too “high interest cycle”. Crack the banks, support the entrepreneurs!

  • JS

    John S.

    11 3 2016 20:56

    18       1

    Tim, as Raoul and Grant repeatedly state they do not pre-select the views expressed by interviewees. There is no group think but clearly a widespread concern about the state of the world. Few Bulls

  • ag

    amin g.

    11 3 2016 20:55

    0       0

    berlin is attracting a lot more people and yes if the euro disappears you end up owning an asset thats just gonna give you a spike in the currency appreciation

  • ag

    amin g.

    11 3 2016 20:53

    0       0

    great point about berlin real estate. Ive been visiting berlin since 2010 and have seen the change. Prices are trending higher each year, the yield is still good, berlin as a city is attracting

  • BV

    Bryan V.

    11 3 2016 20:44

    3       0

    His debtor vs creditor argument was interesting when applied to a FIAT currency world. Totally disagree on the China deval. scenario. Don't think there are any benevolent central bankers out there.

  • pd

    peer d.

    11 3 2016 19:57

    1       6

    So was this very interesting conversation a contrarian vs. cypto-contrarian? As opposed to a consensus vs. contrarian. If not the later then bring on Jim Cramer or David Zervos. CNBC anyone?

  • TM

    Taylor M.

    11 3 2016 19:47

    1       0

    Great to have diversity of opinion. While I agree on huge upside in Philippines and Indo, my travels there recently saw massive real estate speculation. Going to wait on that buy.

  • AN

    Arun N.

    11 3 2016 18:33

    6       1

    lost it at "foreign exchange is the looney tunes market"

  • AG

    Alex G.

    11 3 2016 18:13

    3       1

    Liked the video before I even watched because its Hugh

  • IF

    Ian F.

    11 3 2016 17:50

    56       1

    Long time Hendry follower. Whats important aren't Hugh's ideas, rather the greatest lesson to be learned from him is to form an opinion of the world that is your own, do the research and work yourself

  • TF

    Tim F.

    11 3 2016 16:56

    9       0

    Great, have him back.

  • CL

    Carlos L.

    11 3 2016 16:38

    5       0

    Overstating the obvious: Hugh is brilliant, lessons of his career are priceless.

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    11 3 2016 16:14

    13       3

    "The US is a benevolent hegemon"
    Been in a state of war 222 out of its 240 years of existence.
    US caused 20m dead since end of WW2.
    Not impressed.

  • TH

    Tim H.

    11 3 2016 15:38

    3       0

    Oh, and High definitely did not disappoint! :--)

  • TH

    Tim H.

    11 3 2016 15:38

    6       4

    That's not to say I do not appreciate the videos on here, I just feel we need more balance., regardless of whether everyone you approach is bearish. Find the bills! :--)

  • TH

    Tim H.

    11 3 2016 15:30

    23       5

    This is refreshing. An actual argument and exchange of views, which is fantastic. We need more of this, less of the group think; if I may be so bold. RV should seek out the bulls and talk to them.

  • NF

    Nico F.

    11 3 2016 14:31

    2       1

    Great interview! V interesting hearing him and Tapiro make the same argument w/r/t potential China deval. Yet, both of them say peg must go. How's world doing in this scenario? That's "Tapiro's Gap".

  • TH

    Tim H.

    11 3 2016 14:16

    5       0

    Been looking forward to this, Hugh is my own personal 'Hedge Fund Hero'..