On the Road: Washington, D.C. – Episode 1

Published on
May 13th, 2019
Duration
36 minutes

On the Road: Washington, D.C. – Episode 1

On The Road ·
Featuring Neil Howe

Published on: May 13th, 2019 • Duration: 36 minutes

In the first part of this three-episode series, Real Vision co-founder Grant Williams sets out on another journey of discovery. Williams goes on the road to speak with Neil Howe, author of “The Fourth Turning.” According to Howe, there’s plenty to learn about the future by looking at the past. Kicking the series off, the two consider the ironic phenomenon whereby human actions intended to mitigate natural cycles actually tend to exacerbate the downturns in those cycles. Looking at generational patterns, cultural trends, and the cyclical nature of history, Howe and Williams discuss the challenges that the combination of cycles and human hubris pose to markets and to society. Filmed on April 3, 2019 at several locations in the Washington area, including Neil’s home and Great Falls National Park on the Potomac River in Great Falls, Virginia.

Comments

Transcript

  • OM
    Omar M.
    17 May 2019 @ 00:23
    That was great. Love Neil Howe’s work and Grant you are killing it Great work guys 🙏👌👍✌️ Keep up the good work!
  • RR
    Robert R.
    16 May 2019 @ 23:25
    Excellent piece. Love the new format for Grant. Multiple episodes with a guest rather than a marathon. Thanks for this. Looking forward to the rest.
  • RB
    Richard B.
    15 May 2019 @ 21:34
    words, words, words.
  • EL
    Edward L.
    15 May 2019 @ 19:13
    Hi Milton I downloaded the audio on my iphoneXR. How do I find it to listen? Thanks. Pagingdrlack@gmail.com
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    15 May 2019 @ 10:31
    Fantastic piece Grant and team. Nice story telling. Its also great for us non-Americans to see around the country and establishments. Its a really interesting subject that transcends money and investment and explores the Why of it all. Thanks.
  • JH
    Joel H.
    15 May 2019 @ 02:27
    Wonderful piece. I haven't dug into Howe's work as much as I need to, but am familiar with the generations as he define's them in his books. I am curious to see how the generational cycles apply to Europe's countries. I wonder how that compliments and clashes with the US cycles. Anyway, great episode.
  • JL
    Jim L.
    15 May 2019 @ 02:17
    I must be the only person that thinks the glossy production, the voice overlays, the behind the drivers seat camera angles etc etc are NOT why i signed up to this service. Frankly I'm sick of it all. If i had a vote it would be spend less on production and more on getting higher quality guests (no offence to the guest on this video - this is more a generic comment about RV).
    • LJ
      Liam J.
      17 May 2019 @ 11:47
      why can't they do both ? they have access to the high quality guests anyway so I see nothing wrong with trying to get high quality production. The high quality in production probably even helps get them more high quality guests.
  • SA
    Stephen A.
    15 May 2019 @ 01:40
    Love it when Grant goes on the road.
  • MG
    Michael G.
    14 May 2019 @ 20:28
    Fantastic approach
  • SP
    Sat P.
    14 May 2019 @ 20:23
    This was very insightful because I still haven’t got around to reading the 4th Turning book. Looking forward to Ep 2....
  • GH
    Gary H.
    14 May 2019 @ 17:59
    Fantastic. Looking forward to the second installment
  • JF
    Josh F.
    14 May 2019 @ 15:42
    even the planetary cycles are chaotic at 3 objects...
  • BD
    Bryan D.
    14 May 2019 @ 12:34
    Great series. Well done.
  • JF
    Jennifer F.
    14 May 2019 @ 08:28
    CANT WAIT FOR THE NEXT ONE
  • sm
    stephane m.
    14 May 2019 @ 00:50
    I think what you need to remember is cycles. A lot of people think in a linear manner but everything is cyclical!! You can't take a trend and extrapolate it to the infinity (think global warming alarmist here!). Martin Armstrong blog opened my eyes years ago about this subject.
    • MZ
      Martin Z.
      19 May 2019 @ 06:54
      Not always cyclical. Often spiral.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    13 May 2019 @ 23:38
    Another good one Grant. I enjoyed Neil’s FT book very much. Looking forward to Harold’s input in the next episode. Great production visuals by Grant’s team.
  • JB
    Jason B.
    13 May 2019 @ 20:55
    Generation Z is bipolar in the US. There's a lot of socialists (normally the ones who have the most university degrees or are brainwashed by the mainstream media or Hollywood the most) versus Libertarians and conservatives. There's a lot of both with very little young adults in the middle. I have had conversations with Neil Howe in person about this over the years as I live around him and have had lunch with him 4 times in the last 6-8 years.
    • WS
      Will S.
      15 May 2019 @ 04:42
      You're referring to younger and mid Millennial's - so me. I'm 31. Other than that you are correct. I fall in the fiscally conservative, Libertarian camp. Gen. Z's elders have not even hit 20 years old.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    13 May 2019 @ 18:44
    Production value of videos going way up!
  • NI
    Nate I.
    13 May 2019 @ 18:41
    Happy to see Grant doing content again. Such great interviews. I would really like to see Grant and Jim Rogers get together again.
    • ER
      Efrain R.
      17 May 2019 @ 17:11
      I would like to see Marc Faber interviewed as well.
  • SW
    Sean W.
    13 May 2019 @ 17:37
    Very much appreciate the insights of Generation X (which includes myself, Bret Easton Ellis, Chuck Palahniuk, Irvine Welsh, Chuck Klosterman, Michael Malice, Gavin McInnes, Kevin Smith, and apparently Grant Williams too) who are invested in vigorous resilient individualism from Reaganite and Thatcherite 1980s through the 2000s, but being forced out by radical revolutionary Millennials who demand safety, community, and collectivism in the Fourth Turning.
    • TM
      The-First-James M.
      15 May 2019 @ 11:24
      I'm a younger Gen Xer (no disrespect intended to Grant) in my early forties, born in the last 5 years of the Generational Wave. I cannot help but feel we have more in common with older Millennials - many of us having started our careers in the late 1990's and arriving on the scene too late to get properly invested in the interests of the old system. Speaking for myself, I live in the UK and held off purchasing a house in the early 2000's due to bubble fears. With the advent of 2008, I felt my decision had been fully justified, but failed to appreciate just how much the system was rigged against the Free Market fallout being allowed to take its course. My growing realisation in 2010 - 2013, of just how much the system was and is rigged by Central Bankers and Politicians, is ironically what led me to becoming a founding member of Realvision. Returning back to point, it would be great to hear Neil's thoughts on generational transition points. By this I mean those of us born on or close to the dividing line between two different generations, who didn't have the time allotted to us by Fate to become fully invested in the ideals of our generational cohort.
  • JB
    Jason B.
    13 May 2019 @ 17:28
    I have driven those roads. Langley/McLean/Great Falls, Virginia area right outside DC!
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    13 May 2019 @ 16:06
    I love these On The Road series from Grant and the format of breaking them down to half hour videos. The combination of financial insights, historical perspectives and scenic backdrops make them an absolute must. I can't get enough of them! So much diversity and quality content from RV these days. I feel like a spoilt kid in candy store!
  • FA
    Frank A.
    13 May 2019 @ 15:48
    Great interview......I could listen all day......✔
  • RS
    Rob S.
    13 May 2019 @ 14:41
    What a description of the business cycle! Better than any textbook could ever explain it.
  • CC
    Casey C.
    13 May 2019 @ 14:14
    Fantastic!
  • HH
    HODL H.
    13 May 2019 @ 13:54
    Bought sub to Neil’s products in Hedgeye a couple weeks before this and can’t get enough of his content, thank you so much for doing this Real Vision
  • JB
    Jack B.
    13 May 2019 @ 10:25
    Can't wait for episode 2!
  • DS
    David S.
    13 May 2019 @ 08:04
    The fourth turning is only predictive in hindsight and maybe not even then. It is descriptive not insightful. It makes interesting theater, but poor predictability. Even Hegel knew that you could not propose a zeitgeist until the era passed and the owl of Minerva flew. There is nothing new about false truth - Nazi Germany, Alcibiades attacking Syracuse. To think that a generation’s actions can be predicted so easily is false truth. Nietzsche is happily turning over in his grave. Thank heaven Harald Malmgren added gravitas and rational thought. I hope he has a major role in the next two episodes. Each human and each generation of humans are much more complicated and can change on a dime. If you wish to bet your portfolio on this, I would buy insurance. DLS
    • AP
      A P.
      13 May 2019 @ 15:21
      DLS, could you please expand your thinking? Thanks.
    • MN
      Maverick N.
      13 May 2019 @ 15:28
      Very well said, David. If you ever have a chance to coalesce your thoughts and turn it into a blog post, leave a link. I would love to read it.
    • DS
      David S.
      13 May 2019 @ 16:56
      A P. – In the same day I watched the Lord King interview for the third or fourth time. Later I listen to Mr. Howe discuss looking into the eyes of a sculpture and describing a generation of Americans. One can ascribe generalities to some of a group and be correct or incorrect. This is interesting cocktail chatter, but not a basis for investing or understand a generation of any nation. Many Americans in my generation may come to a different conclusion from mine on a given day. On another day they might agree, which would prove the point. I wish you luck in your journey. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      13 May 2019 @ 17:00
      Maverick N. - Thanks for the compliment, but this is as close as an old man can get to blogging. DLS
    • SW
      Sean W.
      13 May 2019 @ 17:40
      I do agree, this is my Gen X skepticism of teleological history (predictive patterns) as well. While generational zeitgeist are useful descriptors for why Gen X can’t stand both Boomers and Echo Boomer millennials with the incessant optimism and communitarianism, I don’t see this “cycle” having much predictive power. Just as Whig History framing of Progress has no teleological certainty either.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      13 May 2019 @ 19:11
      Brilliant insight David. Neil's narrative - which is an honest attempt to sketch out an example of Kondratiev's long wave - is wonderful entertainment but little more. To extrapolate from Howe's sample of one - the US - which is barely credible on its own - to any other country or even to a future US generation would be folly. I'd take the other side of that trade too....
    • RA
      Robert A.
      13 May 2019 @ 23:42
      David, having been with RV almost since inception and having been an active comment reader, I wanted to let you know that I have enjoyed your comments over the years very much.
    • DS
      David S.
      14 May 2019 @ 04:50
      Robert A. - Thanks. I not always right, but it is what I think. DLS
    • RD
      Ravi D.
      14 May 2019 @ 18:28
      David - good point and do enjoy reading your opinions.
    • MZ
      Martin Z.
      19 May 2019 @ 07:53
      There is obviously some truth to socio-political cycles, as human beings (no matter how much they deny it) are part of Nature, have similar desires and fears, and are largely a product of their experience when very young. But - as we are painfully discovering in the economic sphere - it's important to remember that models and metaphors are not the Real World. His-story is just that, a "story", an approximate, biased, imperfect attempt to make sense of our collective experience. It's much easier to find patterns where there are none than accept that life, like the weather, is chaotic and unpredictable. Taken lightly, looking for recurring patterns can be amusing, even enlightening. But I sense a religious impulse underlying much of this thinking, and a limiting, apologetic fatalism that makes me uneasy. In any case, certainly a better metaphor than a circle would be a spiral - unless it's true that, as is often said: What we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.
    • DS
      David S.
      24 May 2019 @ 09:42
      Martin Z - Very well said. Humans are desperate to understand. A narrative can fill in the blanks. If one does not believe in reason; reason cannot improve the narrative. Reason, however, can try to make sense of experience. Kant's Pure Reason is the best explanation of Science. Outside of science, we need to cultivate practical reason. Within a generation there are similar experiences, but not nomothetic thinking or actions. Trading is always idiographic. Let's leave prediction to science. Probability can help outside of science, but false narratives will lead to losses. Even the best narratives can be negated by bad timing - and there's the rub. It is one of my major problems. DLS