On the Road: Washington, D.C. – Episode 3

Published on
May 17th, 2019
Topic
Cycles, Demographics, History, Monetary policy, Politics
Duration
34 minutes

On the Road: Washington, D.C. – Episode 3

On The Road ·
Featuring Neil Howe and Harald Malmgren

Published on: May 17th, 2019 • Duration: 34 minutes • Topic: Cycles, Demographics, History, Monetary policy, Politics

In the final episode of “On the Road - Washington, D.C.,” Grant Williams, Neil Howe, and Harald Malmgren break down the differences between American generations and compare 2019 to the 1920's and 1930's. The three discuss whether the very idea of capitalism is under threat and speak to the potential consequences of such an attack. Williams and Howe then say goodbye to Malmgren, and visit the Capitol to discuss how their discoveries might suggest other major changes in store for the world in the coming years. Filmed on April 5, 2019 in Washington, D.C.

Comments

Transcript

  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    20 May 2019 @ 06:06
    This was really interesting, but I don’t share Neil’s optimism for the post crisis world. It sounds like hell. I love Freedom and Privacy.
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    20 May 2019 @ 06:06
    So, there'll be far less freedom, far more surveillance and control, less cross-border trade, crippled capital markets, and a cashless society where the execrable Federal Reserve can engage in their monetary depredations with something approaching absolute impunity ... but we should be optimistic. Uh, I don't think so. Sure, everyone would like to believe we'll come out the other side of the inevitable crises rejuvenated, like the Phoenix rising from the ashes. But maybe instead of defaulting to a kind of blind "optimism," we should be considering the possibility that we simply collapse as a civilization and enter an extended period of grim existence historians from 2200 might call the "dystopian nightmare." Rome after the fall ... there's a cycle for ya that might just repeat. Freedom is like air. Go about "governing" as if it's optional, thinking you can deny people the ability to make choices for themselves, and we'll all suffocate ... except the ruling "elite," of course. Sic semper tyrannis.
  • CH
    Charles H.
    19 May 2019 @ 18:52
    It is clear that the global politico-economic system has become unstable and requires some sort of reset. Beyond that, no one has any idea what is going to happen. Even if one presumes that there is some sort of recurrent, intergenerational cultural cycle - and that is a huge ‘if’ - it is not possible to characterise an eighty year cycle by reference to only one or two cycle periods, and certainly not by focussing on a single country. As a historical approach, this is a poor methodology. There will be some sort of crisis, it will be global, and no one has any clear idea what will happen. There may be some rhymes with history along the way. The only option for anyone is to proceed with human intelligence and courage.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    19 May 2019 @ 16:37
    All this historical discussion is fine, but hindsight is always 20/20. It sticks out like a diamond in a goat's ass. Sorry for being blunt. I agree with Mike T., let's float solutions and how to profit from the "turning" rather than becoming sheep to these future ideas, and demand action to avoid future unintended consequences. The worlds decision makers and government heavy weights have to be watching these presentations. Rise up and demand we protect our liberty and freedoms. Taxation is the mother of all the worlds economic decline and destruction. We have to change the tax structure and get rid of so much government and regulation. Just think how foolish NYC messed up having Amazon locate there! People with money are leaving NY, CA, MA, IL and others in droves. Can you blame them? Global Warming nothing more than tax fraud. Record cold weather, fake science and now it's Climate Change. Pollution must be dealt with and effect everyone. The power of the Solar System and the Sun controls the climate. Those promoting otherwise, it's all about taxes and regulations!
    • SS
      Sam S.
      20 May 2019 @ 20:51
      EDIT: Having Amazon NOT locate in NYC.
  • MT
    Mike T.
    19 May 2019 @ 11:00
    I'd like to throw something different into the mix, particularly to those that have given thumbs up, glowing praise etc to the three series of videos. Is there anyone at there that would like to announce to everyone on this forum what new positions they will put on this week as a result of watching.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    19 May 2019 @ 04:33
    Yes, i understand and accept the broad point about generational cycles but the thesis seems shallow at best to me. Surely, overshadowing any natural cycle are the decidely unnatural events arising from (i) the formation and subsequent growth of the FED (and other central banks), together with coming off the gold standard, the explosion of credit and the debasement of the currency etc; (ii) the tiny handful of uber rich, who got wealthy under that system, seeking ever increasing control of everyone else, through increasingly sophisticated methods. Surely the big turning point that awaits us will be the breakdown of the cult of central banking and a return to honesty.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      20 May 2019 @ 21:57
      I like what you said, but it will be difficult to abolish CBs, they will not voluntarily relinquish power. they also want to disarm citizens but creating prohibitive gun laws so that the citizen could never arise against them. they already enslaved americans with debt, if they also take your guns, you are absolutely done and with you the rest of the world.
  • JS
    Joseph S.
    19 May 2019 @ 03:34
    Another great job by Grant. I really enjoyed the interview. It’s another example of the fantasy world of DC. These parasites live in a world of wealth and prosperity at the expense of the citizens. As a bible thumping, gun toting boomer living in Western Montana, these DC residents have an unrealistic view of what the real mood is in this country. Many people have moved to this part of the country (The American Redoubt) to escape the insanity of the urban areas. We have no desire to become part of the millennial collective. Neil make no mention of the millions that have died during past ‘Fourth Turning’. Unfortunately, I see in our future much pain, sorrow and hardship. Folks need to have a plan.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    18 May 2019 @ 23:16
    Grant, you did it again. You get better all the time. Thank you for your passion and hard work. I’m very happy to be a subscriber to RVTV. It’s worth the cost in terms of time and cash. Your goal of providing good information to the masses is realized in this production.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    18 May 2019 @ 17:08
    So much not discussed in this video........ and no mention of generation Z? Millennials are over already! Gen Z is where the change is going to come from, and they are happy as Larry that the Boomers are all about to kick the bucket and finally get out of the way and make room for the new youth to start rebuilding the countries they let fall apart on their watch. The damage the boomers did through negligence is unfathomable.
  • WM
    Will M.
    18 May 2019 @ 14:37
    We need to prepare for the enormous disruption for sure. I admire Neil Howe's hopeful view of the post 2030s. I am personally more biased to Martin Armstrong's model perspective that we may, if we are lucky, have one more bust and "bail out for the people" to come, followed thereafter by a huge global bust and change in the world order with power moving from West to East. It is a historical fact that paper currencies all decline in value toward the intrinsic value of the paper they are printed on. The US $s days are numbered and once the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency the USA is going to face a drammatic change in its fortunes. Great series and thoughtful discussion.
  • DK
    Declan K.
    18 May 2019 @ 11:39
    The disenfranchised, the indebted, the poor and even The millennials who have little or no financial stake in society presently, will have no option but to forge a new society from the red hot crisis by overthrowing the rich -who quite frankly have had it all their own way for too long. Real Visions cohort are , like me , investors. This presupposes a degree of financial liquidity. In an America where a huge percentage of people can not lay their hands on $400 to pay an unexpected bill, where they have no health cover , where access to education costs so much, such myopia is fatal. It’s unsustainable. I would love to see some of these great minds discuss sustainable solutions for the new golden age , as much investment opportunities arising from the fourth turning. But congratulations to all on such great content. It’s valuable, educational, fresh, and long overdue.
    • CH
      Charles H.
      19 May 2019 @ 18:59
      A good start would be interest rates that aren’t artificially held at absurdly low levels for decades, causing massive misallocation of capital, while punishing savers and wage earners. You’re absolutely right that the current system is unsustainable and that is in large part because the whole global economy has been gamed for at least thirty years and possibly since 1971. The era of Central Banks shifting losses to the public, of creating conditions that allow zombie companies to survive, and massively misallocating capital, must end one way or another.
  • MB
    Michael B.
    18 May 2019 @ 11:04
    Excellent sharing of ideas
  • SF
    Simon F.
    18 May 2019 @ 10:45
    I suspect there is a high probability that human nature will ensure we all continue to be subject to cycles, but cycles have different timings and effects depending where you sit in the world, and the structural context for the USA is changing. At the beginning of the baby boom generation the USA was rich and getting much richer fast, and most of the world was poor. Today the USA is even richer, but the rest of the world is also either rich or getting rich, and the USA appears to display the first signs of struggling to maintain its growth. Also Its contribution to global GDP has more than halved over the span of the boomer generation - a trend that hasn’t slowed. The USA needs to understand that its ability to internally determine what drives the outcomes of future cycles is diminishing. The current geopolitical huffing and puffing looks a lot like the early signs of weakness observed from overseas, and is unlikely to motivate the rest of the world to assist the USA maintain its exorbitant privileges. The next crisis could be a lonely time for Americans if they don’t accept they are destined to be a smaller part of a multipolar developed world with little interest in being dictated to. The world needs America to rediscover its self confidence and be comfortable in its own skin so it can embrace a shared prosperity rather than see the future as a zero sum game which will inevitably be fully reciprocated with predictable consequences.
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 May 2019 @ 14:10
      Not sure why you say the US is rich? The government is effectively bankrupt except for money printing privilege. The States are mostly bankrupt or in financial trouble. Corporate entities are at record debt levels. Pension plans are at worst ever funding levels despite record high stock markets. Vast majority of US households have almost no savings and couldn't survive 3 months without income. Personal debt levels are only a bit below record levels. What is your definition of "rich"? Obviously its not based on debt load?
    • TC
      Thomas C.
      20 May 2019 @ 00:52
      To Will M. who disputes that the US is rich, and that the the US gov't is BK except for money printing privilege. Well...is it any different in the other developed economies like Japan or Europe??? Or are they even MORE broke, in debt, and reliant on money printing and zero rates then the US is?
  • RF
    Richard F.
    18 May 2019 @ 03:34
    excellent. bring these 3 back together again a couple of times in 2020 if not before then,
  • MV
    Max V.
    18 May 2019 @ 03:15
    I’m a millennial and I liked this interview but gave it a thumbs down. Grant does a great job navigating the interview, but the generalizations made by Neil are pretty astounding. “I talk to millennials all the time and (insert wild generalization a fact)” DC millennials might indeed fit Neil’s framework but hardly accurate for the entire generation IMHO.
    • CN
      Charles N.
      18 May 2019 @ 07:17
      Clear that what he's "hearing" is what he expects to hear
    • MS
      Michael S.
      19 May 2019 @ 05:56
      Old white man talking about how [insert people not like him] are. There's no "IMHO" with that guy -- he's conjuring stuff that may or may not exist at all, as a profession.
    • CH
      Charles H.
      19 May 2019 @ 19:02
      His entire thesis is predicated on generalising about every generation, not just Millennials. It is unconvincing.
  • HH
    HODL H.
    18 May 2019 @ 00:15
    Reforging, the poor will eat the rich and I would guess New Zealand will refuse to shelter the rich as they run from governments and the Tax Man
  • HH
    HODL H.
    17 May 2019 @ 23:58
    Millennials value their privacy and majority are getting off of Facebook and IG, boomers are the ones getting online as well as gen y or whoever is below millennials that snap and video everything. From a millennial
  • ap
    andrew p.
    17 May 2019 @ 22:52
    Grant, great series, excellent insights. I was thinking, with the Millennials, being the conservative generation and the Boomers the indulgent generation, the Millenials I suspect will force the crash/cleanse we need. I don't think the Boomers will get away with the inequality they created, as Neil said similar to 1929. And how, well they are able to vote, politically engaged and will force policies that will be bullish long term, spring .. but not before the pain. As an Australian, The Australian Federal Election is today, worth watching as it looks like the left should win, and if they do it might be the first time the time is nigh! AP
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    17 May 2019 @ 20:50
    Neil Howe is brilliant! The comment about Fed Coin was thought provoking. I can't see crypto as an option for debt. The aim of blockchain is to have a stable price. If you have a choice; you borrow money in an inflationary currency. If Brent Johnson is correct about the dollar squeeze then countries with debt currently denominated in USD might find an IMF Coin preferable in the future. But only because it is preferable to a currency that is increasing in value. Given the future of conflict is cyber: the future money is increasingly likely to be backed - to some degree - by physical gold. The future of blockchain will be international trade, specifically commodities trading.
  • KB
    Kirk B.
    17 May 2019 @ 19:47
    The "On the Road" series, utilizing Grant Williams' unique interviewing and story-telling skills, is a fantastic format for presenting important fundamental social/political/economic trends and secular changes that are obscured by the increasingly strident and tribal noise of the daily news cycle. Thanks RealVision TV for producing this high quality, thought-provoking series. This is why I have subscribed to RealVision TV since its inception. I look forward to future editions of "On the Road." The book "The Fourth Turning." which I have read twice and periodically refer to, provides an insight into historic cycles in the United States, and how they are influenced by generational change. It is an essential read for long-term investors as they plan their lives and their investments. We do indeed appear to be well into a Fourth Turning era that began in 2008, but has not yet reached its characteristic point of profound existential Crisis, which will lead to some type of Reset. The resolution of this crisis is expected to be greatly influenced by the varied life experiences, perspectives and values of different generations and their respective roles in resolving the crisis. The next ten years (likely less) will be exceedingly challenging to us as citizens and investors--although therein will also lie opportunities. However, it is critical to be aware that, even if this generational perspective correctly provides important insights into our current era, it does not predict exactly the nature or timing of the coming crisis or how it will be resolved--although it does provide clues.
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    17 May 2019 @ 19:16
    The last shot was exceptionally poignant. With a 360 panorama of complex sized buildings, it truly displays that the business of governing the people is big business.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    17 May 2019 @ 18:37
    Trade numbers have been molested and fragmented, like unemployment and inflation numbers too. Capital controls is what brought on the Depression, especially after WWI and financial obligations that followed. Some called it Protectionism. Capital controls, which is financial control, brought on the 2008 crash as the economy was OK at that time. It was a Wall Street meltdown put into the hands of government and they screwed it up. Capital controls via "Fed-Coin" could be the catalyst for the next depression/recession, cause nobody in their right mind has any trust in government. Our Democracy runs on confidence in government and finance. Real Inflation is caused by a lack of confidence. India has gone to this type of capital control system and is not doing as well as the news may report. The real rub is that Marxism, with is communism and socialism combined, is dying throughout the rest of the world. It's going to get real nasty before the system can be rebuilt back into something to believe in. Mr. Malmgren should be advising government(s) to wake up and change course, by making real reforms. The EURO/EU was supposed to be a Trade Union, not a political union. These types of discussions leave me feeling our future has little hope and nothing we can do about it. Hope is not a great strategy, but I'm still hopeful.
  • SA
    Stephen A.
    17 May 2019 @ 18:03
    I agree with all major points by Neil Howe. Capitalism is going to become much more regulated and watered down and the FED does want to bypass the banks and gets its own digital currency. However, once the FED has everybody's money in a digital account, it can dictate different interest rates to different group of people. For example, the FED would be able to set negative interest rates on wealthy people and reduce hoarding and spur spending. If you have digital control, the customization options of monetary policy are mind boggling.
    • DW
      Daniel W.
      20 May 2019 @ 22:24
      and this to you is just? not all rich became rich through steeling, or inheritance. some worked hard to get there. BTW, I am not rich by any means, but I stand for just system, not another form of manipulation that penalizes those who are not friends- that is communism.
  • RM
    RJ M.
    17 May 2019 @ 17:54
    Malmgren is a classic East Coast, intellectual phony who spews liberal nonsense
    • AP
      A P.
      17 May 2019 @ 18:17
      This might help - https://amzn.to/2LMQbGH
    • KC
      Kenneth C.
      17 May 2019 @ 19:12
      Thin skinned if that is somehow interpreted as violent communication.
    • WM
      Will M.
      18 May 2019 @ 14:28
      Harsh comment RJ. Malmgren has huge experience in the corridors of power and whether we like it or not, that experience is incredible valuable. Intellectual he certainly is, a phony he is not. (.....and I am not a liberal but a pragmatist)
  • GT
    Guillaume T.
    17 May 2019 @ 17:40
    I’m gonna go buy more btc... No hard feelings.
  • JM
    John M.
    17 May 2019 @ 17:09
    Interesting comment about 'FedCoin'....'great tool for government'
  • TL
    Tianyun L.
    17 May 2019 @ 16:53
    great conversation. Another trend that plays into this i think is rise of Millennials support for technocracy over democracy. Many in the new generation probably are stary-eyed over the Singaporean model. Add this to the trend of distrust in government institutions but still quite high trust in tech companies like Amazon, creates a interesting dynamic https://bakercenter.georgetown.edu/aicpoll/
  • GH
    Gary H.
    17 May 2019 @ 14:03
    Fantastic and thought provoking. Can't imagine how this episode got thumbs down from some.
  • AP
    A P.
    17 May 2019 @ 12:04
    The paradox of it all (emphasized by Raoul somewhere else): ‘Developed’ markets/West - where younger people can afford to buy less and less big ticket stuff (and that by default are learning to live with this fact) - potentially moving back to EM/RoW lifestyle by living closer to their family and sharing flats/houses with a greater sense of community. Could be quite positive to me, on this front at least. Thank you guys for these terrific conversations.
  • PM
    Polina M.
    17 May 2019 @ 11:23
    The cryptocurrency comments were spot on. There is a reason Putin supports it so much in Russia. Though I believe in Russia's case it will help reduce corruption (at least on lower levels).
  • CL
    Charles L.
    17 May 2019 @ 08:46
    Simply outstanding. Fantastic 3 episodes. It doesn't matter how many times one reads The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe's insights remain some of, if not the most interesting I have ever found regarding the future of society, and all "just" by looking at the past. A quick mention was done on cryptocurrencies and how Bitcoin will ultimately lose against a FED digital currency? How would this happen if it is completely decentralised? How do you interpret the uptrend we've been seeing ever since its massive decline last year?
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      19 May 2019 @ 00:29
      The night before Bitcoin lost 20% of it's value in a few minutes... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currencies-bitcoin-idUSKCN1SN0CN do you honestly think that the American public would think that Bitcoin is a safe haven? The uptrend in Bitcoin was hot money fleeing China and the manipulation of the few that have the ability to manipulate the price for their benefit. Sorry but Bitcoin is a nothing burger. (block chain is a different story)
  • Kv
    Kristian v.
    17 May 2019 @ 06:00
    Great installment of this series Grant! Keep em coming.