30-Year Liquidity Tide Fading

Featuring Mehul Daya & Neels Heyneke

Technical analyst Neels Heyneke and econometrics specialist Mehul Daya, from Nedbank in South Africa, are both highly rated authorities on large scale global financial flows and the evolution of debt creation. In this presentation, Neels and Mehul examine how changes in the pool of credit drive financial markets, offering views on global dollar liquidity and what’s to come this year. Filmed on March 31, 2017, in Johannesburg.

Published on
1 May, 2017
Topic
Financial System, US Dollar, Macro
Duration
19 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Commodities, Equities
Rating
32

Comments

  • zy

    zhang y.

    27 4 2018 09:31

    1       0

    I like the level of information they present, I hope RV bring them back again

  • JS

    Jerry S.

    6 5 2017 23:50

    3       0

    I liked the fact that these gentlemen laid it all out there (whether right or wrong) and didn't equivacate like so many "analysts". Bravo!

  • DY

    Damian Y.

    3 5 2017 05:19

    2       0

    Love the cartoon at the end, well done.

  • IC

    Ibrahim C.

    3 5 2017 02:22

    2       0

    I think it is more interesting to see that the self-sufficiency of United States on Oil (which is not possible) would get some narrative due to the increasing rig-counts and higher inventory reports, then the dollar liquidity will be the highly discussed since OPEC has again been paid by some other currencies and still rush to fill up their pockets to close their growing budgets deficits, then there is a real shortage in USD and I believe the figure for DXY as 120 validated...

  • TM

    The-First-James M.

    2 5 2017 22:47

    4       1

    Great article on the Eurodollar market by Chris Macintosh here (certainly helped my understanding):
    https://capitalistexploits.at/2016/12/eurodollar-market-it-all-starts-here

    • JG

      James G.

      13 5 2017 02:39

      0       0

      Thanks James (Great name too). I have been struggling to understand this concept myself for sometime. It's shocking that this is barely mentioned in Macroeconomics 101. Glad I got a chemistry degree.

  • JH

    Jesse H.

    2 5 2017 19:34

    0       2

    Interesting analysis, but room for improvement in the delivery / presentation.

  • DS

    David S.

    2 5 2017 18:38

    2       0

    Very enlightening and well presented. The US$ alone is too complex. It is time, however, to introduce a second variable i.e., the Chinese Renminbi. It is reasonable that the Chinese government is working hard at getting future payments in Renminbi and radically reducing US$ payments. This is a major game changer. I applauded your work and efforts in predicting the future. In this post-modern world, understanding the past may be too complex. DLS

  • MS

    Matt S.

    2 5 2017 17:34

    7       1

    You know what would be really cool, is if Raoul were to take these videos that are obviously every important but difficult to understand, and sort of annotated them in his own video, explaining in simpler terms what they actually meant!

    • MS

      Matt S.

      2 5 2017 17:35

      1       0

      *every

      (any chance of an "edit post" feature coming soon?)

    • MS

      Matt S.

      2 5 2017 17:35

      0       0

      lol, I mean *very !

    • HB

      Heini B.

      3 5 2017 06:42

      0       0

      Guessing that will take place when the material comes out in a Podcast

    • sr

      sam r.

      8 5 2017 20:07

      0       0

      I'm glad it isn't just me that finds this topic difficult to understand! Great idea though, I'd be very keen to see the $ liquidity theme broken down and explained step by step.

    • ww

      will w.

      10 5 2017 04:23

      1       0

      @ Sam R. - Jeff Snider's stellar RV presentations focus exactly on liquidity of the currency itself; those of Daniel Want & Michael Green broaden the US$ scope beyond just the currency. All those greatly expanded my understanding (& in many cases even awareness of) of many of these little-known/ understood aspects.

  • D

    David .

    2 5 2017 15:29

    1       0

    Great piece - any tips on how to replicate the tw$ cross currency swap chart in Bloomberg? Thx

  • DF

    Dan F.

    2 5 2017 15:16

    8       0

    Coming from the newsletter industry, I've been listening to how the world's going to end for so long, it's turning into white noise. But I like these guys. They've obviously done a great deal of work. I'll have to watch this again soon and see if I can get past the mountain of intellectual baggage I bring to it. Nice job, guys. I also like how they packed it into 18 minutes, which is the TED limit. Excellent job all around.

  • bf

    bart f.

    2 5 2017 12:27

    1       0

    The end of the petrodollar has certainly massive geopolitical implications. We will see a big push for bilateral swap lines China is already doing so. Individuals would stills want hard cash rather than some cryptocurrencies so it will be interesting to see how governments restraint flows. Also once it crumbles how is that mountain of offshore dollar debt going to be backstopped?

  • jb

    jarrad b.

    2 5 2017 11:41

    2       0

    Clear, concise and informative. Outstanding presentation, thank you.

  • RP

    Raoul P.

    2 5 2017 01:02

    6       0

    excellent analysis. Loved it.

    • AB

      ARIEL B.

      2 5 2017 14:02

      0       0

      Very good piece. Just a bit confused as to how they said they thought we'd seen the lows in government bond yields yet everything they said was ultimately bullish for treasuries..

    • A1

      Animal 1.

      2 5 2017 14:26

      0       0

      Not sure but I guess it will all depend on Trump, Mnuchin and Yellen providing the necessary liquidity when the time comes. If they don't, global recession...? hmm

    • RP

      Raoul P.

      3 5 2017 18:53

      1       0

      I didnt agree with everything they said but I liked their approach and structured process.

    • RP

      Raoul P.

      3 5 2017 18:53

      0       0

      I didnt agree with everything they said but I liked their approach and structured process.

    • RP

      Raoul P.

      3 5 2017 18:53

      0       0

      I didnt agree with everything they said but I liked their approach and structured process.

    • RP

      Raoul P.

      3 5 2017 18:53

      0       0

      I didnt agree with everything they said but I liked their approach and structured process.

    • S

      Sigurður .

      3 5 2017 19:36

      0       0

      @Ariel: They were talking about gov. bond yields worldwide - JPM index I think. So the US rates can certainly go lower under their framework.

  • JC

    John C.

    1 5 2017 20:10

    1       0

    Good stuff. Transcript is very helpful btw. Timing-wise it's difficult to know exactly where they are coming out but seems to support the long dollar, long treasurys and long gold thesis we keep hearing (the middle one for the short to medium term, the others medium to long term)

  • OB

    Olivier B.

    1 5 2017 19:28

    2       0

    Also shortage of Petrodollars / Eurodollars will be even more exacerbated by rise in fracking in the US.

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    1 5 2017 16:44

    7       0

    Brilliant! This is the main reason I love Real Vision! I am continually learning about the complexities of the global economy and markets (and of course the all important plumbing!) thanks to informative and priceless videos like this one.

  • M

    Mark .

    1 5 2017 16:06

    3       0

    Very cool ending.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    1 5 2017 14:29

    4       0

    I found reading the transcript in addition to listening to the interview is helpful for increased understanding. Thank you for the brilliant insights in global financial plumbing.

    • ii

      ida i.

      1 5 2017 16:54

      0       0

      where is the transcript?

    • ii

      ida i.

      1 5 2017 16:56

      0       0

      found it ok

    • IH

      Iain H.

      1 5 2017 21:24

      0       0

      Where?

    • RS

      Roger S.

      2 5 2017 17:07

      2       0

      The transcript is always available on the V pulldown arrow which expands the description of the presentation contents

  • LS

    Leigh S.

    1 5 2017 13:09

    10       0

    I will need to watch this a few times to fully grasp the insights, first class thinking.

  • LN

    Lucy N.

    1 5 2017 11:17

    0       0

    excellent