Market Timing Report

Featuring Andrew Pancholi

Market timer Andrew Pancholi believes 2017 is shaping up to be one of the most critical years yet for markets. With a focus on ‘super long-term cycles’, Andrew outlines his ‘secrets to forecasting’, identifying the key time windows for the major trend changes to come. Filmed on January 17, 2017 in London.

Published on
31 January, 2017
Topic
History, Macro
Duration
32 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Currencies, Equities
Rating
267

Comments

  • TS

    Timothy S.

    15 9 2017 03:51

    0       0

    Most of these haters won't even know they missed the opportunity of a lifetime. Slaves of their own mind.

    • JS

      Jeromy S.

      6 10 2017 21:18

      0       0

      I know. It's hilarious. I remember watching this one when it first came out and seeing all the trash talking and thinking to myself, "I'm going to have to bookmark this piece and come back to watch it again and see if Andrew nailed any of these". Guess what? It's 10/6/17 and the "Market Turning Points" and convergence of Oct 20th is almost here...

  • AT

    Amit T.

    27 5 2017 16:16

    0       0

    stopped watching this after i heard 'years ending in 7 are susceptible to correction'.. because no matter what he says after this I'll never have confidence to make significant trade decisions based on this bs.

  • AZ

    Ash Z.

    5 4 2017 21:49

    0       0

    What a joker. I watched the first 10min waiting for him to say 'just kidding, now let's start with the real stuff. '

  • OD

    Orin D.

    22 2 2017 07:36

    1       0

    This is by far the worst real vision video, he is just fitting cycles to 2 or 3 events..........72 year cycle.........seriously.......what a joke. And yes i unfortunately listened to the whole video

  • KS

    Kim S.

    22 2 2017 03:48

    0       0

    Not quite sure why I listened to the end.... I guess like the OJ slow chase "is this going to end differently than it seems?". I prefer Grant's explanation for the reason stuff is gonna happen soon: math.
    and... sometimes the curves invert WTF?
    But this guy has one thing right "Financial markets move like clockwork especially if you look at them from a zoomback macro" AKA "hindsight is 20/20"

  • NA

    Naiem A.

    16 2 2017 23:25

    0       0

    Seriously guys, you can do better than this Numerology

  • CC

    Charles C.

    14 2 2017 23:43

    0       1

    I'm befuddled. This is either pure genius (that I don't get) or strictly random fitting of events to made up cycles. Was there any interval without a cycle by the time this was over?

  • DF

    Dan F.

    14 2 2017 22:18

    0       1

    Fooled. By. Randomness.

  • MY

    Madjid Y.

    13 2 2017 21:28

    1       0

    Wheat and Corn 3rd week of Feb 2017. Nice call ….and continue to monitor

  • DD

    Daljit D.

    13 2 2017 16:11

    0       0

    I'd rather him have talked about one cycle in depth and show more than 3 data points suggesting its validity. I found this interesting though

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    13 2 2017 11:27

    0       0

    Didn't work for me. I use price and support/resistance. The only thing RV needs do is bullet point each of his predictions - not the ones where he says turning points but the ones where he says falls or rises - and do a Rewind.

  • GG

    Giacomo G.

    13 2 2017 02:56

    0       0

    me, i dig it :)

  • RW

    Ross W.

    10 2 2017 00:17

    8       0

    Watched all the way through to see whether I could pick up a free set of steak knives.

  • SW

    Scott W.

    9 2 2017 15:08

    3       0

    Anybody ever see the south park 911 episode? 9 - 1 +1 is 9. 9 + 1 + 1 is 11, and so on until it was Kyle who masterminded the attacks? I want to keep an open mind, and perhaps there are indeed time cycles that align with generations, or somehow with a productive 70 year lifespan... Or maybe this is just mining data and completely arbitrary curve fitting. It seems that latter.

  • SR

    Sean R.

    9 2 2017 05:59

    3       0

    I prefer cycles to progress. I've written the dates down. Let's give the man a chance. Just checked out his website. The only negative thing I can see is that Harry Dent endorses his work. Definitely a red flag.

  • WE

    William E.

    8 2 2017 19:13

    2       0

    Fine presentation - you have got to love his enthusiasm! No is saying bet the farm here but remember that while history does not necessarily repeat it does rhyme! I suggest you pay attention.

  • MS

    Martin S.

    8 2 2017 09:17

    6       0

    What did I just watch?!

  • JM

    John M.

    6 2 2017 04:55

    3       3

    Though I am a fan of so much of your work RV, this one left me disappointed. Could not see it through. Too many cycles and half-cycles thrown in there, with no rationale.

    We start with 72 yr cycles, then 90 yr, 100 yr, and let's not forget the half-cycles in-between. Quite random.

    I'm open to the idea of well-thought-out generational cycles, but this was not the case here.

  • CH

    Calvin H.

    5 2 2017 21:44

    1       1

    My IQ is too low, this was pure jibberish to me.

  • CL

    Chewy L.

    5 2 2017 18:03

    3       0

    I don't dismiss anything and I have an open mind. Jotted down the dates so let's see how they play out.

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    5 2 2017 17:16

    5       4

    Was this filmed on April 1?

  • WM

    William M.

    5 2 2017 14:52

    8       1

    Ok, I have watched the vast majority of RV videos and this is one of the very few indeed I have given a thumbs down. This is not because I think cycles are bogus, i think there is clearly enough evidence to show cycles do exist. I gave it a thumbs down because anyone watching the final edited video should have picked up this was trying to cram 10 lbs of apples into a 3 lb bag and what they ended up with was actually a bunch of lemons. The first 20 mins of history covered far far too many cycles. Andrew rushed through too many examples of cycles and half cycles and 1800s history. There are many witty, sometimes a little disrespectful, comments below but to give an example of what did make me laugh out loud was when 2/3 of the way in, Andrew says "Now, I want to add one more somewhat obscure cycle...."

    Additionally, just to take one example of why cycles usually get a bad rap, Andrew specifically mentioned that Crude oil had a significant trend change coming up 3rd week in January. If you look at the charts this clearly didn't happen although could it happen this coming week
    ? who knows but if it doesn't then the prediction was totally and completely bogus. This is the sort of prediction that draws ire from most investors. Unfortunately an opportunity was lost here. Although I do believe 2017 is very likely to throw up some big changes all around I have little confidence in whether they will be highs or lows. But I fear they will be big changes...... so from previous RV videos maybe Trend Following and Market neutral strategies are the way to go to capture value, including Andrew's cycle warnings.

    One final important point. Coming back with Andrew in a years time may either demonstrate the insightful value of cycle theory here, or show viewers it was mostly wrong and to ignore it.

  • LW

    Leoterado W.

    5 2 2017 14:00

    1       0

    Seems to resonate with the counts of William D Gann

  • AS

    Amit S.

    5 2 2017 02:53

    12       0

    Read few of the earlier comments, a bit disappointed to say the least. One should be open to listening to diverse ideas and opinions, even though one may not agree with them, that is the hallmark of 'sane' investors. This guy has put his reputation on the line by coming here and putting his views across, give him some credit for having the courage to do so, dont just dismiss his ideas as gibberish even though you may not agree.

  • AH

    ANNIE H.

    5 2 2017 00:21

    12       0

    I really enjoyed this. I have long been a student of cycles, particularly the relationship of sunspots and seismic activity. Refreshing perspective. I found the snarky comments disrespectful. I trust the Real Vision team, and if it worth their time, it is worth mine. If it is not your cup of tea, there are kind ways to say so. Thank you.

  • PW

    Phil W.

    4 2 2017 22:27

    7       1

    Give this guy a chance, jot down some dates and see how it plays out. By the By sunspots and the radiation that goes with it, has effects on our weather systems! Keep an open mind here peeps!

  • LK

    Lisa K.

    4 2 2017 19:51

    1       1

    Very Entertaining! I needed a good laugh! But the laughs on us if his predictions actually come true. So guess we will see...

  • AA

    Ali A.

    4 2 2017 14:56

    0       4

    You lost me at "sunspots and radiation..."

  • JB

    Johan B.

    4 2 2017 05:47

    3       2

    First time I couldn't see an episod to the end.

  • PM

    Paul M.

    3 2 2017 04:37

    3       1

    Roman G's comment, and others made me laugh out loud........seems enough of us at least maintain a sense of humor about this one......we know this for sure - a couple of videos statistically have to be in the bottom 10%. This one appears to have enough votes for a nomination.

  • WP

    William P.

    3 2 2017 03:54

    2       2

    People actually pay money for written work product addressing this mumbo jumbo? Other than Robert Citron?

  • rp

    ross p.

    3 2 2017 02:58

    0       1

    Nostradamus of the 21st century? I don't think so. Maybe he can tell me who wins the super bowl based on who won 30 years ago.

  • SA

    Sandeep A.

    3 2 2017 02:52

    6       4

    A very shallow discussion of business cycles. Please avoid presentations that make economic predictions without any underlying analytic framework

  • RM

    Robert M.

    3 2 2017 01:14

    5       6

    Was Real Visions site hacked? To have such an incredibly high standard and then show this??? Should have saved it for 1 April 2017

  • KH

    Kerry H.

    2 2 2017 22:39

    10       1

    This is all BS, IMO. If one cannot explain why an X-yr cycle exists, then their just poaching X based on data and extrapolating. I believe in cycles, but in many cases - not all, but many - the timing is not consistent; thus cannot be relied upon. This is especially so the longer the cycle.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    2 2 2017 22:23

    2       3

    This one reminds me of that SAT question "which object doesn't belong with the other objects". I have watched them all and I must say our Curator Milton must have taken a powder on this one. If this were April Fools day I could see it, but come on guys this is pure drivel and not even entertaining. Too subtle?

  • GM

    Greg M.

    2 2 2017 17:07

    6       1

    There wasn't that much history there, what caused the panic of 1837, 1874 and 1907? The panic of 1907 was due to the federal government facilitating a credit bubble from 1905-1906 (sound familiar?) and JP Morgan gave a bailout to the government. It was the opposite of 2007.

    We will see how his predictions shake out - it would be good for RV to do a rewind in the near future.

    One thing I want to get off my chest is him mentioning "wars are good for industrial production." For the defense manufacturers yes but for the consumer industries and the general public - No. War is a massive misallocation of resources and the government usually finances the war with debt, increased taxes, and centralizes control over the economy. For the United States, the WWI debt in 1917-1918 led to the depression of 1920-1921, which interestingly wasn't mentioned in the video.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    2 2 2017 16:02

    11       1

    This one hurt my head a bit. I'm willing to keep an open mind but it felt a bit more like economic astrology on an acid trip. I found myself waiting for the "but wait....there's more!". Only made it through 2/3 of presentation.

  • RM

    Rainer M.

    2 2 2017 15:59

    5       1

    it was a bit unusual but again lets be open minded.
    RV please however focus on more "tangible" stuff.
    He mentioned February 10 2017 MAJOR turning point for gold. Words are cheap but as the Chinese say "A picture is worth a thousand words". If he makes a grand statement for Feb 10th MAJOR turning point ? up or down ? How does it look on the charts ? etc etc..... otherwise it loses credibility in my personal opinion......

  • JG

    James G.

    2 2 2017 14:05

    6       0

    definite REWIND in 12 months

  • AH

    Aaron H.

    2 2 2017 13:34

    6       0

    Horoscope Finance 101

    I'm staying home Oct 3rd

  • NJ

    Nic J.

    2 2 2017 13:27

    3       1

    This guy would be great at read The Wind in the Willows.

    Very interesting presnetation tho.

  • vt

    vadim t.

    2 2 2017 13:13

    4       3

    Ok, the next one should be an astrologer. I appreciate the sense of desperation but not at such a degree!

  • MB

    Martin B.

    2 2 2017 09:23

    12       0

    I'm disappointed by the presentation as he's not able to show the links between those many cycles (as a student of cycles I know the links). He mostly speaks about fixed cycles only to mention later that he also uses more dynamic cycles. The possible turning points in the second part make sense to me if I compare them with my own work. It is extremely difficult to explain how cycles work in such a short video. However I think his attempt to put a little bit of everything (of cycle theory) into this presentation was a bad choice. I hope he's coming back with a better presentation.

  • RH

    Rob H.

    2 2 2017 08:43

    15       7

    There is no such thing as good or bad at real vision - it is simply unbiased information - take it or leave it.

  • AV

    Alex V.

    2 2 2017 07:22

    15       2

    Lets have him on Rewind in 12 / 24 months, and then we can pass judgement

  • rm

    russell m.

    2 2 2017 05:52

    2       1

    daily bio cycle

  • PS

    PD S.

    2 2 2017 05:40

    8       10

    Well I knew I would eventually come to a video on RV I didn't absolutely love, and it was by far this guy. Extrapolation of all this info from all these multi-year cycles, the lucky number 7, etc.--this guy needs to set up a research/consulting service based on the astrological projections that he just gave us in that drivel. I'm sure it will do extremely well, 45 years from now ;) How did this loser even get on here?

  • CM

    Carl M.

    2 2 2017 04:15

    5       0

    ...Fraught with rebuttable presumptions and anecdotal statistics requiring more than a few "grains of salt."..."things that make you go Hmmm?" - You Betcha -

  • DP

    Devraj P.

    2 2 2017 03:43

    2       0

    This should be better if its published as a RV report instead of someone reciting it :) But left a lot of dates to compare by the end of 2017

  • BA

    Blair A.

    2 2 2017 03:04

    5       1

    By 2073 the stock market will have been outlawed.

  • SM

    Sean M.

    2 2 2017 02:57

    4       1

    This feels like a departure from RV's otherwise seller content.

  • JM

    Jim M.

    2 2 2017 02:05

    7       0

    Fascinating and very worthwhile. Cycle work has been around for a long time and while not infallible, to my knowledge it has never been debunked.

  • VM

    Vincent M.

    2 2 2017 02:01

    5       2

    Nice to give general US market view but giving dates endlessly with at least a few "clues" made the value of the last 10 minutes minimal at best.

  • DG

    Don G.

    2 2 2017 01:44

    3       1

    I am suspicious of the exact dates but the overall analysis matches my own so inclined to like it.

  • JS

    Jon S.

    2 2 2017 01:40

    19       3

    I love this guy!.....He corroborates my own higher frequency cycle studies. For example, I discovered my own seven day cycle. I've documented a weekly histogram increase in natural gas emissions in my household after every Taco Tuesday!

  • KG

    Kurt G.

    2 2 2017 01:12

    6       1

    Really enjoyed Andrew's presentation. It opened my eyes to some of the longer term cycles that could be at play. Cycles can provide information not otherwise readily discernible from the disparate factors influencing them. For example, one needs not understand, and certainly needs not explain, the capital investment cycle to recognize on a time chart commodity price cycles. Some may not like it, but the unintelligible is not necessarily unintelligent.

  • TM

    The-First-James M.

    2 2 2017 00:51

    18       3

    Surprised by the number of negative comments. I really enjoyed this. Yes, our technology has changed dramatically over the last 100 years, but technological change has always been a feature of human history. I'm also of the opinion that mass human psychology is no different now to what it was, say, 1000 years ago. Surely Raoul's success with his Business Cycle Methodology via the ISM is just a variation of a cyclical timing theme. Personally, I don't think we should be writing this off as some kind of fad or sales pitch. There is something to all this. Personally, I'll be keeping an eye on the dates mentioned and predictions. I've been watching Gold, USDJPY, USDEUR and the DXY like a hawk over the last month, and it's obvious some kind of turning point is approaching imminently. I have no clue which way it'll go, but it's all about Dollar strength or lack of it with the associated knock-ons.

  • FR

    Frank R.

    2 2 2017 00:22

    4       2

    Really?

  • GM

    Gerald M.

    1 2 2017 23:53

    12       2

    Well, I was having trouble believing I was hearing this on RVTV. It reminded mm of the stuff you hear at "trader education" shows. Whatever happened 100 years ago in horse and buggy days isn't going to reflect forward onto a world with space ships and AI. Also, the numerology aspect of it wasn't working for me. The predominant message is that sometime in 2017, something will happen. Meh.

  • MY

    Madjid Y.

    1 2 2017 23:26

    12       5

    Good One Thanks
    Amazed by the number of thumbs down, I thought the RV audience is more open-minded (to new ideas)
    What Andrew is trying to explain is no different than the Fibonacci retracements/extensions or Elliott waves.
    I did a bit of research in the past around the market activity and lunisolar cycles, this presentation just got me interested again.

  • SR

    Steve R.

    1 2 2017 22:28

    10       2

    Its easy to dismiss this, but the parallels to history are quite compelling. He has given us some target points to look out for so I for one will be keeping a close eye on these for confirmations. If he is right, he is presenting us with some fantastic trading opportunities this year!

  • GF

    George F.

    1 2 2017 22:22

    2       1

    RV should post a transcript so I can follow along and see if his predictions pan out. I think something with natural gas was supposed to have occurred at the end of Jan 2017, but I don't think anything happened.

  • NS

    Nic S.

    1 2 2017 20:58

    9       7

    First disappointment ever from rv

  • ML

    Michael L.

    1 2 2017 20:27

    8       4

    early april fools?

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    1 2 2017 20:16

    2       3

    Wow!

  • RP

    Ron P.

    1 2 2017 19:52

    5       0

    Although I do believe in cycles he throws around numbers adding and subtracting to make his thems fit. Having said that I do believe this fall will show extreme volitility to the down side

  • SS

    Stephen S.

    1 2 2017 19:44

    13       1

    Can we get this guy and Nassim Taleb in the same room... I want to see some fireworks. No disrespect, just a funny thought.

  • CS

    Chris S.

    1 2 2017 19:21

    26       1

    I really try to be open minded about different approaches to investing as no-one has the crystal ball. But this is a tough one. I find it hard to believe that market cycles remain the same length over 100s of years as everything is getting faster. I can imagine that one generation's experiences fade out as a new generations takes over, explaining why history repeats itself. But again, as the working age period grows, it is hard to believe the cycle length should remain the same. Anyway, I admit I watched it till the end and I was sort of fascinated. But it's a stretch to far for me.

  • MV

    Mike V.

    1 2 2017 19:09

    6       8

    Absolutely worthless! Make predictions so far out nobody can measure them and you can never be "proven" wrong even when there are very few correlations between all of the "facts" presented.

  • RB

    Robert B.

    1 2 2017 19:06

    9       6

    Looks like a promotional video with "proprietary histagrams" without explanation. Do not like it.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    1 2 2017 18:04

    4       1

    Magic. Where did i leave my rabbit's foot?

  • RG

    ROMAN G.

    1 2 2017 17:16

    17       7

    Is this a joke? I do not think this is serious...

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    1 2 2017 17:10

    2       1

    Yes I know gold will experience price changes. Is it going up or down?
    This is more black box discussion with the ever present " On the other hand"!

  • EM

    Elvijs M.

    1 2 2017 15:58

    9       1

    Hmm, I do get the long-cycles. People change in generations and forget "that harmful event". What I don't like is the pin-pointment to exact years. It easy to get fooled by randomness.,,

  • SC

    Sau C.

    1 2 2017 15:56

    35       4

    Wow, I'm a fan of cycles as much as the next guy but there's just too many cycles.
    10 year, 20, 45, 50, 72, 90, 100, etc. There's a crisis nearly every year somewhere in the world so it wouldn't be difficult to find a crisis that overlays with a cycle year.

    I'll love to hear back from him in 2017.