The Duck Test

Published on
February 24th, 2016
Topic
Financial System, Credit Market, US Economy
Duration
15 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies

The Duck Test

·
Featuring Grant Williams

Published on: February 24th, 2016 • Duration: 15 minutes • Asset Class: Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies • Topic: Financial System, Credit Market, US Economy

Grant Williams, author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm... presents viewers with The Duck Test as he takes a snapshot of the global economy and tries to chart a course through a few simple known knowns in an attempt to ascertain where we currently stand.

Comments

  • A1
    Animal 1.
    24 February 2016 @ 14:29
    Epic presentation! Thank you.
  • LM
    Leland M.
    24 February 2016 @ 14:48
    Another analytically clear and unemotional view of global statistics that scares the s**t out of me. It begs the question of what does the average investor do in response. Grant is so good at this.
  • SS
    Sam S.
    24 February 2016 @ 14:54
    Grant --- You're the best. Pal & Williams for President! Ideas for shorting the markets besides owing Gold and Silver?
  • EO
    Ernesto O.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:20
    Thank you.
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:29
    I agree with everyone else....brilliant! But many of us aren't wealthy and don't have in-depth options knowledge/accounts. So how does a small time, amateur investor use this info to make $?
  • JM
    Joseph M.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:35
    whoa clean shaven!
  • GT
    Graham T.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:35
    Get it there, my son
  • sc
    sam c.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:38
    I'm happy to see his face, also like graphes. thank you mister.
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:51
    (Bad/illiquid assets held by FED, Black Rock, etc.) And if you can squeeze more out (Helicopter drops, etc.) How do you make people drink vs hoard?
  • FS
    Felix S.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:51
    Love this type of presentations. Simple and full with lovely charts & facts. Thank you Grant!
  • TM
    Taylor M.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:51
    Daniel and Leland, Over simplified action plan. 50 Cash 40/Gov Bonds 10/Gold. You could short QQQ too.
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:51
    most of the water that has been wrung out has been captured in bottles by a few (bankers/the wealthy), or segregated in other bottles that have poison in them?
  • CC
    Christopher C.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:51
    If the economy is like a man dying of thirst, and liquidity is like water in a sponge that is wrung (QE, etc) out to give the dying man a few drops of water, what do you do when the sponge is dry,
  • GR
    Gregory R.
    24 February 2016 @ 15:58
    Perhaps it’s a sparrow with a glandular condition?
  • KD
    Ken D.
    24 February 2016 @ 16:00
    Wonderful presentation. Thank you.
  • BV
    Bryan V.
    24 February 2016 @ 16:39
    Regardless of the narrative, I've never thought that this was about a recovery, rather managing an eventual crash. CBs are political animals and this about bringing China and Europe to its knees.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    24 February 2016 @ 18:52
    Brilliant synopsis Grant. Sadly even if the Keynesian PhD fools running our central banks watched your presentation, they would not recognise the duck they have created!
  • JO
    John O.
    24 February 2016 @ 19:27
    It's a slow motion crash. Thanks for the great charts.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    24 February 2016 @ 19:40
    Excellent! More pain coming now that oil mkts. are bust: trillion $ loans that may default, millions of high pd. unemployed, oversupply of housing, China debt-, export trade slowing, cntrl bank hubris
  • TH
    Timo H.
    24 February 2016 @ 20:22
    Oh duck...
  • RT
    ROB T.
    24 February 2016 @ 21:00
    any advice to a newbies in times like these?
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    24 February 2016 @ 21:32
    A really nice summary.
  • DC
    Dave C.
    24 February 2016 @ 22:40
    The Duck Test presentation is great - latest by @RonStoeferle complements these themes and gives ideas for investor preparation https://t.co/AYZNKxuCzn
  • RP
    Ron P.
    24 February 2016 @ 23:05
    The Global economy is not in a free fall through air. It's more like quick sand that engulfs you slowly over time until the day comes that you can no longer breathe
  • JB
    Judith B.
    24 February 2016 @ 23:52
    Great information......makinking changes based on the insights you have provided..
  • DL
    Derek L.
    25 February 2016 @ 00:04
    That is a Big Ugly Duck! I have to believe the CB's are scared to death of the B.U.D. and they will do anything to keep the evil fowl in a cage. How long can they do it ? Great stuff Grant.
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    25 February 2016 @ 00:07
    What to do? I started my RV subscr. last summer & have listened to almost every video produced at least once. I have cash in business accts vs pers accts, I'm in gold & gold miners & have SPX puts.
  • SH
    Stu H.
    25 February 2016 @ 02:28
    Great presentation, as always. I love what RV is doing. As a humble retail investor some insight from your guests as to the best ways we could adjust our portfolios would be really appreciated.
  • CH
    Calvin H.
    25 February 2016 @ 03:31
    Nice work Grant. To the folks asking what to do? jeez,,,,,quit quacking. Study up, go to cash in the meantime, go long gold, listen to Rainmaker and many others. You will not be spoon-fed
  • AS
    Andrew S.
    25 February 2016 @ 03:54
    Excellent summing up. We are getting closer. Oh and tell Raoul to buy his physical gold and take possession. Seriously.
  • ps
    phil s.
    25 February 2016 @ 03:54
    Another great video. Grant is clear and concise. Well done.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    25 February 2016 @ 04:03
    Tks Dave;great link. Anyone have a link for counter view for this "duck" which is looking pretty obvious now days?
  • DD
    Derek D.
    25 February 2016 @ 04:21
    Love it. Peter Schiff has used the duck test also. "If it quacks like a recession" was the title of one of his recent podcasts actually. Maybe he reads TTMYGH!
  • dm
    douglas m.
    25 February 2016 @ 06:44
    the counter arguement: the Atlanta Fed no longer has GDPNow at 0.7% ... it's currently at 2.6% and making significantly less quacking noises.
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    25 February 2016 @ 16:17
    short & concise, phantastic! question to Grant: any chance to get the slides? thanks a lot.
  • JB
    James B.
    25 February 2016 @ 21:05
    Great presentation. Like many I am not sure what if anything can be done to protect the small as well as the big investor. it is time for the CB's to manage the global risk.
  • DC
    Dave C.
    25 February 2016 @ 22:33
    542 up votes and 0 down votes. Result my son! Maybe Yellen is too busy to vote?
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    26 February 2016 @ 07:02
    Thiks Grant! I think we know what not to own. With the rest, we step from one rock to the next, as it gets wobbly we see where to step next. That's probably the best we can do. RVTV by our side.
  • TH
    Timo H.
    26 February 2016 @ 07:14
    Dave C: Yellen did not vote this video down because she saw the light. Now THAT's scary.
  • DF
    Dominic F.
    26 February 2016 @ 11:55
    One word... Greenspan :-(
  • CB
    Cliff B.
    28 February 2016 @ 13:16
    Good presentation. I would be nice to be able to download charts to review at later date. Don't know if that is possible. I saw Milton note on where to get slides. Thanks
  • M.
    Milton ..
    2 March 2016 @ 17:02
    Terrific!
  • IZ
    Ileana Z.
    3 March 2016 @ 21:19
    first graph: is this total financial instruments or total value of financial instruments? if the former, some growth could be explained by tech advances in "size"/value of financial instruments
  • ii
    ida i.
    4 March 2016 @ 19:20
    I prefer your face to the graphs Grant!
  • JA
    Judy A.
    5 March 2016 @ 22:07
    Perfect discussion, quick, backed by facts, logical and clear. One of the best talks in several weeks. Well done!
  • JV
    JP V.
    8 March 2016 @ 09:13
    excellent round-up of the world's troubles
  • JC
    John C.
    26 August 2016 @ 07:14
    went back in time to watch this as I'm a relatively new subscriber and enjoyed it immensely. Short, clear and concise overview of all the world's central banking & economic ills. Would be good to do a 'rewind' on this right now to see where we are at as we head into a lot of uncertainty in 4Q 2016
  • AD
    Arvydas D.
    9 February 2017 @ 17:36
    Would be interesting to see the update

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