Triffin’s Dilemma

Featuring Julian Brigden

What will a stronger dollar mean for commodities and emerging markets? Is the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency under threat? Julian Brigden, President of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, explains his theory of a global dollar supply shortage, and Triffin’s Dilemma. In this highly illuminating presentation, Julian walks us through the cascading effects that a continuation of the dollar’s recent strength could cause.

Published on
15 December, 2014
US Dollar, Macro
26 minutes
Asset class
Currencies, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities


  • my

    markettaker y.

    26 7 2018 21:39

    1       0

    like five or six years early, eh? check out the EEM, EMB etc. charts. May have been nice trades for a little while but the major trends Julian talks of didn't happen, did they?

  • MS

    Matt S.

    30 12 2016 22:20

    0       0

    Once again, without an RX time stamp, this is useless.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    20 11 2016 00:53

    1       0

    One of the best features of RV is the "watch again", IMO. Just rewatched this one and got more out of it this time. Throughout Financial history I note that some "clever" product seems to be created that finds "current" speculative demand, which leads to a plethora of copy cat product to capture the wave of speculation.....and then...the Great Unwind occurs. Lambs to slaughter. I cannot believe how many EM debt funds and ETFs have suddenly appeared in the last 6 years, many with "all star" sponsors. What, no EM debt appetite for the last 50 years? Why now? Even bought some myself---held for a few months---and then asked myself why am I doing this----is the yield pick up really worth the risk that I don't understand? I bit because Pimco and Doubleline marketed it...and the performance was great.....and everybody was doing it---doing it. Well the "herd" is still doing it, but little ole me with the help of RV has left the building. You?

  • SC

    Shashank C.

    12 9 2015 14:00

    0       0

    Monty - too late a response but Mark Hart was talking about a similar thing in the Master Class video and suggested buying out of money puts as a way to play currency vol.

  • NN

    Ninh N.

    28 3 2015 18:37

    2       0

    I don't even know how one can *thumbs down* this video. Would double thumbs up if I could.

  • JO

    John O.

    3 2 2015 08:12

    2       0

    Wish I had watched this betore SGD adjusted south.

  • BM

    Barry M.

    24 1 2015 05:58

    2       0

    I am dumb money desperately trying to become smart money, this presentation, along with all the others, gives me some hope. Also, I second Monty, how can a small investor play the currency volatility

  • ML

    MONTY L.

    18 1 2015 13:32

    1       0

    Great Presentation. I will implement some of these trade ideas. Is there any way for the small individual investor to get in on the USDCHY Vol trade? I'll be looking for a way to play that one.

  • DB

    Duncan B.

    11 1 2015 19:19

    1       0

    It is both pathetic and ridiculous that we have to base our investing decisions on second-guessing what The Fed will do next. The sooner we get back to a non-debt-based system the better.

  • CR

    Chris R.

    8 1 2015 11:50

    5       0

    More from this man asap please!

  • JD

    John D.

    7 1 2015 12:34

    5       0

    Graphical analysis + insightful commentary = very powerful.

  • ac

    adam c.

    5 1 2015 00:29

    4       0

    We need more of this type of analysis. I like the take on SGD too. That's a great call.

  • FC

    Frederick C.

    24 12 2014 14:50

    1       0

    Thinking ahead: could it get so ugly that the IMF with SDRs or China with their gold reserves attempt to accelerate the move away from the US $ as the reserve currency?

  • RG

    Ryan G.

    22 12 2014 21:17

    4       0

    Brilliant presentation. Completely overlooked by much of the mainstream line of thinking. Strong data, strong dollar=lower ylds in UST, and the talking heads will be flabbergasted.

  • LS

    Leigh S.

    21 12 2014 09:37

    0       0

    Already seeing requested to switch Cary trade borrowings from usd to yen.

  • MC

    Michael C.

    19 12 2014 03:27

    0       0

    Great set of views drawn from history. Not sure he will be very popular in Singapore.

  • CH

    Colin H.

    17 12 2014 19:42

    1       0

    Liked all the trade ideas. Especially long volatility. Volatility is mean reverting so seems like a good bet whatever policy makers do. I'm too small to put it on but great stuff.

  • RO

    Robert O.

    17 12 2014 04:27

    4       0

    How will the China, Russia, etc move away from using the US dollar in world trade affect the world's need for US dollars? Could China use its dollar reserves to build a large stake in the EM assets?

  • KA

    Kelly A.

    16 12 2014 14:57

    5       0

    My investment in RVtv has been more than paid for from the return on the investments i made as a result. As others wrote, greater clarity on specific vehicles, bulleted lists would make it easier. Thx

  • JA

    Jack A.

    16 12 2014 10:54

    3       0

    It will be interesting to track the U.S. current account now that shale is looking uneconomic at the current oil price. Might temper this scenario somewhat. Not enough to change it though, I suspect.

  • PH

    Philip H.

    16 12 2014 07:49

    8       1

    One of the most impressve presentations I've seen. Had to watch it twice and will watch it again.

  • CT

    Craig T.

    16 12 2014 05:53

    7       5

    Could the presenters list a few bullet points at the end, so we can be sure to get the stock, index or ETF names right? Also hints like "short Yuan, long USD". Great info!

  • SL

    Steven L.

    16 12 2014 03:49

    6       1

    Well done! The only addition I would request is to get some idea of what a retail investor can do with their money. I understand that I should get out of EM but not what I should get into.

  • JC

    Joel C.

    16 12 2014 02:41

    0       0

    hope everyone enjoys their Christmas.. seems like its going to be a rough year in 2015.. but i feel well armed with RVTV. keep the momentum going!

  • JS

    John S.

    15 12 2014 23:39

    1       0

    Outstanding! Enough said...

  • BL

    Bruce L.

    15 12 2014 22:55

    1       0

    Brilliant. Answers a couple of questions I have been asking for 2 years.

  • LT

    Luc T.

    15 12 2014 22:36

    13       0

    Perfect addition to Raoul Pal's US $ exposé of last week. Very in depth analysis with practical investment advice of both authors. This is the real Real Vision I was hoping for!

  • BB

    Brian B.

    15 12 2014 20:58

    9       0

    It is important to realize that THIS is the correct narrative. It's as if Real Vision is giving away the winning horse prior to the Kentucky Derby. The value of this info is incredible. Well done!

  • DY

    Darrel Y.

    15 12 2014 19:51

    3       0

    Terrific presentation, however it is a week old.

  • PW

    Phil W.

    15 12 2014 16:34

    23       0

    Very well done! give me more of the same