Bill Fleckenstein – Rewind

Published on
16 August, 2016
Topic
Gold, Monetary policy
Duration
38 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Currencies, Equities

Bill Fleckenstein – Rewind

Featuring Bill Fleckenstein

In the latest edition of Rewind, Bill Fleckenstein, President of Fleckenstein Capital, analyses his 2015 economic predictions and how his thinking has changed since that time – and what remains the same.

Published on
16 August, 2016
Topic
Gold, Monetary policy
Duration
38 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Currencies, Equities
Rating
23
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Comments

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    24 9 2016 05:33

    1       0

    Super fun given his recent blow off at CNBC. Seems like a cool dude and a pragmatist. The extra time in reflecting is amazingly helpful, all we ever hear is the correct stuff or the awful stuff without any contextual nuance that make a big difference.

  • ml

    michael l.

    24 8 2016 01:20

    1       0

    Excellent interview. For a gold novice, very much appreciated his framework for evaluating the individual miners. Also very much like this new format of revisiting prior predictions - it's a great discipline for any of us to look back at our views / decisions and evaluate where and why we were correct or incorrect.

  • EC

    Edward C.

    22 8 2016 09:46

    1       0

    Nothing short of fantastic. Totally agree - need the crisis to instigate change or our kids get the burden

  • AP

    Alfonso P.

    19 8 2016 13:51

    1       0

    Excelent, and the new format is a hit!

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    18 8 2016 19:33

    2       0

    by the way, this new format is top notch in my view. this will increase the already high rvtv quality even more. this will put even more positive contrast to popular media where it is often about expressing a "hot air" opinion with no accountability thereafter. tks a lot!

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    18 8 2016 19:20

    0       0

    the

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    18 8 2016 19:20

    1       0

    contrary to other comments here, I perceive Bill's reasons on which gold miners to own quite reasonable. As a sector specialist myself, I of course find many more names to be very attractive. but we in the team have a rigorous criteria list which needs to be met (eg safe legal jurisdiction, balance sheet, project IRR and quality of ore body, self funded growth; mgt quality is probably the single most important one). hence i can fully understand his ETF argument.

  • AS

    Andrew S.

    18 8 2016 15:33

    1       0

    Great interview. Love Fleck but absurd to think there are only a handful of investable gold miners. No mention of Australian miners? The well run Jr. miners will outperform the "safe" miners he mentions by magnitudes. Those of us that spend hours researching miners will optperform and have outperformed the large cap miners by a bunch. If you don't want to do the due diligence, buying long dated, out of the money call options on GDX or GDXJ in a gold bull market will also outperform buying the Agnico Eagles and New Golds of the mining world. Lots of ways to successfully play the gold mining space aside from buying 5 or 6 large cap miners. Good luck to everyone in the game.

  • TH

    Timo H.

    18 8 2016 05:52

    0       0

    Bill says "I don't know" quite a few times. That's a good attitude.

  • BB

    Brian B.

    17 8 2016 18:55

    1       1

    He may be right in the long run but CDE is up over 500% YTD and has massively outperformed the other miners he mentioned.

  • RM

    Russell M.

    17 8 2016 17:51

    6       0

    Appreciate the courage to name some gold stocks he likes and others he doesn't.

  • LP

    Lynn P.

    17 8 2016 15:25

    1       0

    Query who is active in this market? Is it hedge funds and HFTs who are confident they can get out quickly when things turn down? Is it true that individual investors are largely not participating in this market (like me)?

  • CL

    Chewy L.

    17 8 2016 12:27

    8       0

    Although bill can be too feisty at times I respect the fact he can confidently say he has no idea on various topics unlike many who spout their views with certainty. I rather listen to people who can admit they are wrong and confidently say they have no idea as it is a sign of humility

  • TH

    Tim H.

    17 8 2016 12:17

    2       5

    Has Bill ever bene bullish? Bearish at the lows in Feb, bearish at the highs in late July....

  • LN

    Lance N.

    17 8 2016 04:18

    2       13

    He didn't say anything of substance. Now I know that his views haven't changed and the markets haven't but how can this interview have such positive ratings? I like Bill, he seems smart but this was a waste.

  • AK

    Anthony K.

    17 8 2016 00:58

    3       2

    Bill is one of the top 5 in my book!

  • DL

    Derek L.

    16 8 2016 23:17

    1       0

    Great interview by Grant and Bill. Two very insightful guys without the corresponding egos.
    Been a follower of Bill's for a while listen and closely to his views on gold, bonds etc.
    The epiphany of the "printing press being taken away" is far off IMO. People have such faith in the Fed because what else do they have? Enjoyed the "crony scum bags" reference.

  • RE

    Rachel E.

    16 8 2016 23:10

    0       11

    Bill is a good metal guy, but he doesn't have a clear vision for Macro Economy.

  • DH

    Dale H.

    16 8 2016 22:57

    11       0

    The RV interview with Bill last year led to me becoming a member of his site. I have benefitted greatly. I really like Bill's no nonsense and honest approach. Bravo Bill! I enjoyed this rewind interview. I agree with Bill about using a set of criteria to choose the best companies. It took me months of reading, learning and research to get to grips with it all. I thought about buying his US recommendations that would have been easier, there is a currency issue however, and broker/bank issues and time differences. Instead, as a Kiwi I purchased the AUD at what I thought was pretty optimal against NZD and then did my best at choosing Australian miners that were very well run businesses with good people. . I have 5 that fit the criteria (I think/hope), and one spec recommended by Brent Cook. I also have one Canadian miner. So far, with pull backs here and there, I have done well - better than the HUI from its bottom.. My question is: can RV find someone to talk about gold miners in other safe countries like Australia and Canada and about how important currency, broker and safe banking issues are. And any other issues, eg key ways to research miners.
    I do think there will be a shake out of all boats rising and the best having staying power, as Bill says. And, yes, it is good to take note of what key players are buying. I saw Colonial First State and others buy into my spec lately; last time I saw that about 2009, it was in a 30c share that topped out 2-3 years later at $3.00...
    Thanks again - great interview.

  • DV

    Daniel V.

    16 8 2016 22:54

    5       1

    please keep interview FLECK he is one of the best and I love hearing his current thoughts

  • DV

    Daniel V.

    16 8 2016 22:54

    2       1

    please keep interview FLECK he is one of the best and I love hearing his current thoughts

  • de

    dale e.

    16 8 2016 22:36

    2       1

    IT dosent get any better except for CRAZY. Thanks

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    16 8 2016 22:04

    2       1

    Thanks for the great interview! The gold part is a no brainer, nice in depth explanation of miners, thanks for that too. But I don't quite get the bond bubble burst part. The bubble part sure. Greek bonds okay, the ECB stopped buying them, then it's logical that they would go down. Other PIIGS bonds going down, sure, mostly because of redenomination risk. But what makes you think that the US bond trade will stop to work if you expect QE4 which should scream for the frontrun trade to continue? Especially if the US is the only western country with yield? And that is only the Fed part buying, aren't central banks buying bonds between each other too? Therefore I personally only see yields going up if inflation were to pick up significantly, i.e. real rates going down, (worst case hyperinflation), but that is not a scenario Bill talked about and seems to be possible in the near future?

  • JC

    John C.

    16 8 2016 21:35

    3       0

    great format and awesome interview. Really like hearing Bill's thoughts he's a very smart guy.

  • SS

    Sam S.

    16 8 2016 20:08

    8       0

    Rewind is a terrific format and truly proves timing is so hard to master, if at all. QE4 is Kicking The Can down the road, but an opportunity to go long down a very long road to god knows where. Road to Hell is Paved with Good Intentions. Thx Bill & Grant.

  • RA

    Robert A.

    16 8 2016 19:35

    19       0

    I echo Fleck turning me on to RV. Bill and Jim Stack have made me a lot of money, sometimes by not losing money. I've been with Jim Stack for almost 30 years and with Bill since I first visited his site. Grant.....Montana isn't THAT far from Seattle, what about scooting over to Whitefish? I sound like a broken record, but why are the "humble" ones like Bill not only successful but so easy to relate to and learn from? RV has brought me into contact with Thinkers I would never have had access to and all in less than two years. Go Raoul and Grant!

  • EO

    Ernesto O.

    16 8 2016 18:48

    5       0

    Great video. Keep doing rewinds . I think they are helpful for everyone.

  • lb

    larry b.

    16 8 2016 15:55

    15       0

    he was the reason i signed up for realvision with Fred Hickey, too. bill 's site is the best value out there and his opinions have been right on on gold. do more than 1 /year with Bill. greatest lesson is not to trade too much in the bull market in gold which has made me lots of money this year.

  • RM

    Richard M.

    16 8 2016 15:38

    22       0

    Grant, I love these "rewind" series, just really great stuff. And I always love to hear Fleck talk (uninterrupted ), he is so whip-smart and just plain makes sense to even the densest of us! Keep up the rewind shows!

  • fc

    frank c.

    16 8 2016 15:19

    2       0

    Bill they can't print Gold? what about the Gold futures market where they create gold paper out of thin air? If you would eliminate or restrict that factor wouldn't Gold be much higher? thanks
    Frank

  • RM

    Rainer M.

    16 8 2016 15:19

    1       0

    Great Interview Grant

  • AH

    Andrew H.

    16 8 2016 14:47

    2       1

    If the fed can not raise, and needs to begin to stimulate again. Which should weaken the dollar, strengthen the other currencies Yen and Euro. What will happen to their markets. They should crash if their currencies rise and/or they need to stimulate more than the US. In the first event short Japanese and European equities, in the second I am not sure what would happen.

  • BF

    Bill F.

    16 8 2016 14:32

    61       0

    grant does an amazing job with his interviews.