David Hay – Rewind

Featuring David Hay

In this edition of Rewind, David Hay, CIO & Principal of Evergreen Capital, looks back at his predictions on illiquidity in the bond market & European economic issues.

Published on
23 August, 2016
Topic
Global Outlook, Europe, Monetary policy
Duration
33 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
7

Comments

  • NH

    Neil H.

    5 7 2017 19:01

    0       0

    interesting to pull up the rewind 1 year later and see what has changed and what david got wrong. would love to see another rewind in August 2017 to see if he still shares the same views.

  • nt

    nicholas t.

    30 8 2016 08:19

    0       0

    Great points - It all will end in tears and the signs are on that we are very very close to it, calling the exact tops is impossible but it reminds me Nasdaq 1999/00 or 89 in Japan, Shorting US Consumers is probably a good bet and going long Cash or ST-Bunds, JPY, CHF. Trump or Clinton, its choosing between cholera and pest, even though Trump would probably do better for the economy with a clear shakeout but either way you can only hold on to your gold coins, farmland, your mortgage free house and your beloved family and friends.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    25 8 2016 10:32

    3       1

    Bloomberg say SP500 had more earnings positive surprises as did the DJI (Q2). Yes earnings are decreasing but as the market is forward-looking and the earning estimates are lower than actual, so there must be more upside in US Equities. Investor sentiment is poor, hedge funds redeeming and closing, and record cash on the sidelines supports the market going higher, no? It seems his arguments match the above but then he says US Equities are heading south. Huh?

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    25 8 2016 10:32

    3       0

    What a great idea! Rewind should become a major segment on RVTV

  • JC

    John C.

    23 8 2016 21:10

    14       0

    @Grant B "Can u ask some French or Italian PMs their view on staying in Europe vs. an Americans. Also shorting US small caps must have been/is painful. The economic data doesn't support his dooms day scenario for Q3/Q4 ... so far any way. It seems like he's grasping at straws a bit. Kind of like BAML call for correction today."

    There is so much noise coming in Sept/Oct./Nov at this point I just can't hold too much in equity longs now. Too many variables - Italian elections, possible Fed rate hike in Sept, US money market rejiggering in Oct., continuing Brexit concerns, endless terrorism and migrant issues in Europe - then on to US elections. Volatility just has to spike at some point and you can't keep up with "there's no place left to go but equities' much longer. Why take the risk when you can sit it out or make some money shorting the right sectors?

  • JC

    John C.

    23 8 2016 21:05

    12       0

    loved the interview but wondering (like the other commentators) if we can publish some of these juuuussst a bit more quickly so they are a bit more relevant time-wise. I assume he's short PSCT? Funny how he's wary of Treasuries. Good stuff!!

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    23 8 2016 19:41

    1       5

    Well, another bear on equities, I believe he is wrong, the ATH anticipates the good numbers to come for Q2! High P/S mean nothing if earnings are fine and they will pick up...if not I am the first to sell everything if the 75MA of the indices are broken...

  • GB

    Grant B.

    23 8 2016 18:42

    2       2

    Can u ask some French or Italian PMs their view on staying in Europe vs. an Americans. Also shorting US small caps must have been/is painful. The economic data doesn't support his dooms day scenario for Q3/Q4 ... so far any way. It seems like he's grasping at straws a bit. Kind of like BAML call for correction today.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    23 8 2016 16:23

    6       0

    Love it he brings clear focus to the situation.
    I can understand his points and have good information to decide my direction.
    This is why I'm a listener!
    Thank you

  • PP

    Preston P.

    23 8 2016 15:07

    2       0

    Very Smart Comments!

  • IH

    Iain H.

    23 8 2016 13:13

    25       0

    Great interview, as per Thomas W, it be more helpful if interviews are published soon after taking place.

  • rm

    russell m.

    23 8 2016 13:12

    11       0

    One of my favorite guests. Clear spoken view of where we are in the short cycle, what he is watching for warning signs, and how he is positioned.

  • TW

    Thomas W.

    23 8 2016 11:06

    69       0

    Excellent interview, once again. But may I ask what is the point of publishing this one month after it was recorded?