Rewind – Louis Gave Reviews Market Forecasts

Featuring Louis Gave

Louis Gave is back in the chair as Rewind takes a look back at some of his predictions from prior appearances on Real Vision. Gain a new perspective on one of the sharpest and smartest minds in finance as Louis re-examines and updates his view on China’s economic prospects and how his thinking has changed on Europe, while casting an eye on the potential outcome in the forthcoming French elections. Filmed on January 6, 2017 in Seattle.

Published on
27 January, 2017
Topic
China, Europe, Structural flows
Duration
66 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities, Currencies
Rating
29

Comments

  • RH

    Robert H.

    16 7 2017 15:15

    0       0

    Great video.

  • JS

    Jaco S.

    10 7 2017 21:27

    0       0

    Excellent interview with Louis Gave, really enjoyed it.

  • PS

    Phil S.

    17 2 2017 17:25

    1       0

    The reason why I subscribe to RVTV is because I trust Grant and Raoul’s industry and journalist judgement. Insights via RVTV help guide my learning. Therefore if RVTV determine that Ronin has a valid point then I would like to hear that perspective, but if that point is made in a derogatory way then I will be hard to convince. However if he is simply being disruptive to my learning due to his own emotional (or even business) interests then I would like him to be filtered. I am fascinated by this because I would never conceive of acting this way.

  • DS

    David S.

    13 2 2017 22:48

    0       0

    Re: ALEX E. - I agree we need and want many points of view. I reviewed comment sections and some of Ronin comments are now missing. They were personal and derogatory. If they were removed, I applaud RVTV. If this is true, I also applaud your comment and gave you a thumbs up. DLS

  • AE

    Alex E.

    13 2 2017 00:25

    1       0

    David S., I'm sure that all the guests featured on RVTV have come across negative invective by some dolt or other who completely disagrees with their point of view. That Ronin disagrees with Louis is fine. He's allowed his opinion however rude it may be. To censor negative opinion is to allow those who would harm the general good to hide in the shadows and damage everyone in the process. I say, let the man talk and show himself for what he is...

  • DS

    David S.

    11 2 2017 19:11

    1       0

    Re: Ronin R. - Your anger and invective may indicate that you lost money on a trade. I do not like to lose money on a trade, but I am the only one responsible for my trades. Regardless, it would be appropriate for you to apologize to Mr. Gave. The bigger question for RVTV is how to handle invective in the future? Future important guest may think twice about being interviewed on RVTV. It is also apparent by the reactions to Ronin R’s comments that others in the RVTV family were offended. Please develop a policy with consequences for non-civil behaviors. DLS

  • GT

    Gary T.

    10 2 2017 19:22

    0       0

    PS: I thought it was excellent!

  • GT

    Gary T.

    10 2 2017 19:21

    3       0

    @Ronin R: Hey, I may be completely wrong but, as I understand it, if you’ve joined RVTV for actionable trade ideas (red light / green light), you may be in the wrong place. Surely, this is all about hearing the views of people with a track record in the industry, evaluating those views and feeding them into your own investment / trading strategy. So you have doubts about Louis Gave’s previous thoughts? That’s completely okay; just move on. Given your comments, I just wish I had your faultless investment / trading track record! Maybe RVTV should interview you and then do a ‘Rewind’ six months later! :-)

  • AD

    Arvydas D.

    9 2 2017 22:04

    1       0

    Amazing Interview, Thank's A Lot!

  • DB

    Dennis B.

    9 2 2017 08:23

    5       0

    I think I am not the only person who appreciates RV because it help me to LEARN and to understand complex adaptive systems. I do not expect stock tips, because the richness that I get from RV is not measured in $ or €. I am in awe of people like Louis and Grant - and the many others - who have forgotten more that I will ever know and very deeply grateful to them for shining a light in my direction. If they make a living from helping others, good for them. Thanks guys.

  • TV

    Todd V.

    5 2 2017 16:57

    1       0

    The Art of War comment was the best!💪🏻

  • Js

    Johns s.

    5 2 2017 15:18

    0       1

    Test

  • SE

    Seif E.

    5 2 2017 13:36

    0       0

    Britain built the Suez Canal? Where do you get your history from?

  • GL

    Gerard L.

    5 2 2017 09:38

    0       0

    Excellent analysis! I would like to see more of this kind of interviews. I come from France and what he said about it made perfect sense.

  • AG

    Alexander G.

    4 2 2017 20:47

    0       0

    very good

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    4 2 2017 16:14

    2       0

    i thought this was one of the best videos lately and that rewind format is simply great. very informative, well elaborated and persuasively argued. pls more rewind videos. rvtv = unmatched value 4 mo

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    3 2 2017 05:59

    0       0

    I recall an RVTV quote re-China something like ..."I hate the story but I love the company”. 6 months is the story and who invests for 6 months when randomness will take you out of the trade anyway. Hey Ronin, I have been long French Financials for a while now - Buy low and Sell high - the only way is up (if they survive, and I am willing to take that risk as the rewards could be big!). Louis summed up my thinking precisely, so there is the trade idea

  • MC

    Michael C.

    3 2 2017 03:33

    0       0

    Interesting interview. I wonder if his views on Fillon has changed given the recent newsflow (first his wife on the payroll and now it appears his kids). Not sure Fillon will even make it to the election! If you elect a hard core socialist or perhaps worse a proto-fascist I am not sure labor laws are simplified and taxes reduced.

  • CL

    Chewy L.

    2 2 2017 23:46

    1       0

    Who is this disgruntled ronin guy? Nothing should be spoon fed in investing because if they are then trades won't work! Use these series to build upon your own knowledge and devise your own actionable ideas!

  • JM

    John M.

    2 2 2017 06:49

    2       0

    Great interview. This is why I subscribe to RV. Fits in with Simon Hunt, and Fourth Turning type thinking too.

    I note harsh criticism on this comments page, mostly from one individual. Disagree with those views. Confess I'm not a trader though and I'm not up for 6-mth predictions.

    It's quite clear that the post-WW-II institutions are about to get a kick up the proverbial. Trump himself has them lined up. And the other big-guns (Russia, China) are not going to just sit there passively while it all happens. SCO anyone?

    Some people just can't see the forest for the trees.

    Love the idea of a debate between Bass v Gave though!

  • jm

    jim m.

    1 2 2017 03:43

    7       0

    I think Grant and Louis interacted really well. I noticed Louis's demeanor was quite different in the 2015 interview. In any case, I learned quite a bit. I respect his views and those of Bass's. It would be terrific, though possibly difficult, to see a couple pros such as Louis and Bass, defend their views to one another. I personally believe Bass's concern about bad loans, high levels of indebtedness, will lead to renminbi devaluation. For me the question is when? My view, having just listened to Louis is that it may be years away. Hats off to Grant and Real Vision and Louis for a really great interview!

  • BY

    Brian Y.

    1 2 2017 01:00

    3       2

    In each interview with Louis I am always left with the impression that he is just "talking his book". He clearly has a bias for investing in China since that is how he derives his income. His bias is to "cheerlead" the China "story" as a great place to invest - he would never speak like Kyle Bass on China since that would just hurt his business. Is it really that hard for people to understand this inherent bias from Louis?

  • dd

    darrell d.

    1 2 2017 00:08

    0       0

    What are great interview. Its not "What you did wrong" ... its what can I learn from this. Perfect concept. Carry on.

  • P

    Phillip .

    31 1 2017 21:45

    1       0

    Great, a man who can admit his wrongs as well as his rights. Hope you interview him often.

  • JC

    John C.

    31 1 2017 21:34

    3       0

    Very interesting and nice to hear some positive spin on China. For sure there are a ton of worries about the fragility of the Chinese economy (massive stimulus, huge debt to GDP, 'ghost cities', fake numbers, etc. etc.). But deep down I am positive that China will weather any storm better than most of the West. China has a plan and can wait long-term unlike our feckless politically correct Western politicians who only know how to kick the can down the road so they can stick around a few more years and 'look good' by giving us endless PC platitudes while our economies decay. And the Chinese people have been through hard times in the past and are better suited to surviving through economic downturns. I think Gave is dead on when he says that China would rather 'look weak' now and then come out swinging later when the dust settles from the coming recession.

  • TK

    Tanay K.

    31 1 2017 19:53

    1       0

    Loved this :) thank you.

  • FB

    Florian B.

    31 1 2017 19:05

    3       0

    Grant, don´t feed the troll. Great Interview,great job

  • ps

    phil s.

    31 1 2017 15:53

    1       0

    Great interview.

  • FC

    FRED C.

    31 1 2017 14:18

    2       0

    great interview.......both in style and substance...........grant you are doing a terrific job in getting the meat from the interviewee........thanks.............

  • RK

    Raitis K.

    31 1 2017 10:20

    10       2

    I'm dreaming here but imagine a debate with Louis and Kyle Bass about China. Mindgasm

  • PK

    Paul K.

    31 1 2017 09:44

    0       0

    In the open .

  • PK

    Paul K.

    31 1 2017 09:43

    5       0

    Ronin R. As another one of those Asian based research dorks, I have a simple solution. Debate me in front of the real vision audience. You clearly have some well structure views. Let's hear them out i

  • BL

    Bryn L.

    31 1 2017 01:18

    5       3

    @Grant W & @Ronin R
    I suggest RV prevents subscribers from swamping the comments section with frivolous content.
    Great interview!

  • ML

    M L.

    30 1 2017 22:33

    2       0

    This was a really great interview and I think the approach is spot on: i.e. it is very interesting and thought-provoking for people to revisit past predictions and explain whether or not their thinking evolved. This is an area where the conventional financial media does not do enough of so I am glad to see someone had the vision to do it at RV. I thought Louis's analysis was very sound, but I would have liked to hear some more questions put to him along the lines of Kyle Bass's bearish arguments on China. Somewhere between Bass and Gave lies the truth. But again, this is not so much about the end point as such, but the journey, so on that basis: excellent

  • VS

    Victor S.

    30 1 2017 13:40

    1       1

    Although I gave a thumbs up he does not mention the huge risks of France i.e. The win by Le Pen ends the EU and on China the clash on the South China Sea islands with the Trump administration.These are 50/50 bets and Rhein are several other game changers.... therefore I would never follow his version off the future.

  • ns

    niall s.

    29 1 2017 21:58

    21       0

    Fair play to him for agreeing to appear on a rewind and I thought it was one of the best interviews I have seen on RVTV, plus he speaks the best English of any living Frenchman .

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    29 1 2017 21:57

    2       0

    Good shot Grant.
    To the point and on target!

  • RR

    Ronin R.

    29 1 2017 21:08

    1       25

    He even laughed at himself citing his 1.5% return, followed by a chuckle. He should be crying, not laughing.

  • RR

    Ronin R.

    29 1 2017 20:54

    9       54

    Anyone who doesn't like my comments can cancel their subscription, I can say whatever I want. This man has been living in Hong Kong and a self proclaimed China expert, yet everyone of his predictions has been devastatingly wrong. Not partially wrong, which is normal for everyone, but completely wrong. Had you invested on those ideas, you would no longer need a RealVision account as you would be bankrupt. Some of you are heaping praise on him, as if he is your buddy or cares about your opinion. He's here to attract new clients, and is most likely paid to do the interview. The takeaways's from his interview are to go long French financials, sell the dollar and go long remnibi, and sell US equities, and go long China. Who here is ready to put money into French financials? lol He is a perma-bull on China who sells "research" and tries to make money by always taking a contrarian point of view. He is a fraud, and Im not here to make friends, or be "nice". Ive laid out my case for why I feel so. I encourage you who feel differently to put your money where your mouth is and take those trades. Sell your dollars, and buy remnibi. Sell US equities and buy French financials, and lets review your P/L in 6 months.

  • fc

    frank c.

    29 1 2017 19:18

    6       2

    I really enjoyed this interview and am a big fan of rewind, and @Ronin just cxl your subscription and go to Agora Financial its more your league.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    29 1 2017 18:20

    5       0

    Great interview, I appreciate the folks that are willing to come back even though the reality might have changed. It is a good demonstration, at least for me, the strong beliefs well-held necessitate frequent challenges. I suspect give this interview his thoughts changed in real time to changing events. Nice job!

  • GW

    Grant W.

    29 1 2017 15:37

    144       0

    The comments stream on Real Vision is supposed to be a place for intelligent debate - not the usual bun-fight of ad hominem attacks and mud-slinging. The guests who grace Real Vision screens are bright, insightful and generous with both their time and their wisdom. They will not always offer views which align with those held by everybody in our audience - that is the point.
    @Ronin, your comments about Louis are unnecessary, gratuitous and add nothing to the discourse. If you don't agree with Louis' point of view, that's OK. It doesn't make him "arrogant' or a 'dork' and, frankly, the point of Rewind is to get guests to come back and discuss what they got wrong as well as what they got right in the hopes that they can help our audience get better at being wrong. No other financial media channels will give you this opportunity to understand how smart professionals deal with that and move on.
    It's not always about spoon-feeding trade ideas - it's about making our audience better investors.
    Please be respectful to the people who are willing to give up their time and appear on Real Vision to have honest, frank and, hopefully informative conversations. If it's not for you then so be it, but if you feel an overwhelming need to let the world know that, then there are ways of getting your point across without doing so in the manner you chose.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    29 1 2017 15:32

    5       1

    Very good thought provoking.
    Debate him and Kyle bass!

  • us

    urska s.

    29 1 2017 14:21

    11       2

    @Ronin go get a signal service off Twitter, RV is for professionals who know what they are doing - can think with their own head. Comparing Gavekal with Floyd, wow!

  • us

    urska s.

    29 1 2017 14:18

    1       5

    @Thomas R. so you are 'that guy' who trades the way the narrative goes. You are destined to stay put. You keep reading the headlines to guarantee it and make sure to check and recheck the data points. Get some gold too, cause RV says so.

  • NR

    Nuno R.

    29 1 2017 08:29

    18       0

    Really enjoy this Rewind format, and credit to all the guys that put their views forward publicly and are willing to discuss it openly, admit their mistakes and take credit for their correct predictions. Thank you RVT, keep going.

  • TR

    Thomas R.

    29 1 2017 02:35

    30       0

    Someone has got to break up the series of Ronin comments. I can't believe how valuable this rewind format is. This was an excellent and thought provoking interview. How many of us could boast a 100% track record. This guy is real. Win some lose some - adjust and move on. I was short the S&P all year in 2016. Made a bunch in Jan 2016 and gave it all back the rest of the year. Made great money the day after Brexit and was surprised to see it slip away quickly - was positioned for the Trump Victory and a massage market sell off and gold rise, was jubliant for a few hours in the middle of the night and dead wrong thereafter. I'll relisten to this interview at least a half a dozen times, and check data points. The action items for me are a possible contrarian short of the US dollar (of course having the benefit as I listen to this of the recent Trump news of a 20% Mexican tariff and the 90 day freeze on foreign visas coming out of Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, and Libia. Where do we go from here? There will be a headline that sends the market into uncertainty. My bet is the February 2017 debt ceiling debate. Clearly all this supports a long gold trade in 2017

    Thanks RV.

  • RR

    Ronin R.

    29 1 2017 01:38

    1       49

    Okay buddy, ill go ahead and swap my dollars for remnibi, mmmkay.

  • RR

    Ronin R.

    29 1 2017 01:10

    2       49

    Ok so you're a china expert, how does that make me money? How do I get long China? What is the trade?

  • RR

    Ronin R.

    29 1 2017 01:08

    2       55

    Anyone can read a few novels and talk about them for an hour, none of this is tradeable information.

  • RR

    Ronin R.

    29 1 2017 01:07

    10       59

    Overall I really like RealVision and appreciate having access to these great minds. However, none of them offer any actionable trade ideas. Rather, they talk in very overall, broad terms. None of them come in and say what trades they are putting on in any way that viewers can mirror. The only thing that comes close is videos by Aspen Trading Group which discusses entry points, and buys, but even he is quite vague. As an active trader, I'm always looking for the "so what" and I rarely get that from any of these videos. So our guest speaker here is bullish France, but he doesnt put forth an investable thesis. Simply, that France has a bright future. He stated he likes French financials, but I want to know is he buying shares, bonds, in those names, what is his time horizon, price targets. My request is that these videos be geared more towards investors, and traders, as currently they seem to just give a high level informative delivery.

  • SJ

    Stephen J.

    29 1 2017 00:48

    4       0

    Throughly enjoyed this interview.

  • GF

    Guillaume F.

    28 1 2017 22:34

    17       0

    Frenchman speaking, I would like to share his optimism about France but few things might have changed since this interview was recorded. First the socialist candidate is likely to be Hamon, and not Valls (we will get the answer tomorrow). And Hamon is a hardcore socialist (free income for everybody, debt default, tax on robots, etc). Second point is that Fillon is currently in trouble because he would have offer his wife a fake job. I agree with him that Lepen is unlikely to win (yeah I know Brexit, Trump, but this is not the US): she will make it to the 2nd round but unless there is a major event (terrorist attacks, euro crisis,…) I don’t see how this is possible for her to win. So my money would be on Macron. The only issue with Macron is that he has not really said what he plans to do… Now let’s assume that our next president is willing to make some good reforms, the French are not willing to change if they don’t have to (look what happened with the El-Khomri law to improve the labor market: polls = French are ready, in real life = strikes everywhere). So as long as we can borrow cheap money, nothing will happen. The good news is that France 10 years yield is back above 1%. With almost 100% debt/gdp and a GDP growth expected at 1.3% we might not be very far from the end of the road. But who knows...

    Great interview otherwise! I can’t wait to also have his father Charles back on RVTV!

  • FC

    Fractal C.

    28 1 2017 22:27

    9       1

    Brilliant stuff. Louis is an original thinker and quite a contrarian. Loved his presentation.

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    28 1 2017 22:09

    13       0

    +1 for the debate. This is the only format that I will think could make Real Vision even greater than it already is. Loved the interview and loved the humbleness of Louis Gave. Not sure so many people, especially in the high ego finance world, would accept having their "wrongs" being deeply analyzed on tape. Thanks again for your amazing work Real Vision. Thanks also for the transparent date postings of the interviews. Helps to put everything in context in this fast moving world. I hope Louis is right about France, the latest Fillion scandal is probably not helping right now though... Time will tell and please have him back!

  • DR

    Dennis R.

    28 1 2017 22:04

    4       0

    I'm glad he enjoyed it because I surely did.

  • BM

    Bryan M.

    28 1 2017 20:37

    8       0

    What a great interview. Louis is an original thinker of the highest order and I feel privileged to hear him speak - so thank you Grant for yet another special discussion.

  • NH

    Neil H.

    28 1 2017 20:34

    2       0

    Always love listening to Louis and wished the interview never ended. His futuristic thought process is so informative and eye opening.

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    28 1 2017 15:28

    39       1

    Could we see a cage match between Kyle Bass and Louis Gave please? #KBvLG

  • CM

    Catherine M.

    28 1 2017 14:45

    2       0

    Frist class! I will defintely be watching this one through more than one.

  • RM

    Rainer M.

    28 1 2017 13:50

    9       1

    "the crisis will come from the U.S." .... I think this could be the case and hardly nobody even considers this at this stage. Everybody talks about 2017 = Europe political risk when in my view the real global and U.S. risk is the Trump administration itself. Marc Faber said it best in my view when he opined " Trump will "only" destroy the United States" .......

  • EF

    E F.

    28 1 2017 12:59

    1       0

    you do look that little bit healthier without the suit

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    28 1 2017 11:25

    1       0

    Love it!

  • GS

    Greg S.

    28 1 2017 04:19

    0       0

    A slap upside the head with the admonishment, " Here, think about this!".

  • KC

    Klendathu C.

    28 1 2017 02:06

    27       0

    There's a lot to unpack here. This was a great interview. Mr. Gave has an incredibly fascinating perspective and has absolutely nailed a lot of China developments. With that said, let's dive in.

    On the surface China is making all the right moves. OBOR also a brilliant project it allows for SOEs to use some of the excess capacity while generating a higher ROI and increasing China's sphere of influence while further internationalizing the Yuan which already accounts for +35% of China's trade.
    You're waiting for the but and here it is...
    But It's easy to be bullish on China and ignore the escalating pile of debts or the hidden leverage from TBRs and WMPs. We've seen the devastation caused by just a midsize firm attempting to default on some of its TBRs. Regulators had to put the firm and its creditors in a room and keep them there till they came to an agreement. That reeks of LTCM in 99 and post-Lehman in 08. Let's not forget that OBOR is a long term program whose effects will be felt over time. China's credit growth is accelerating. It's becoming harder and harder for OBOR to keep up.
    China may have forestalled the inevitable down turn in its credit cycle with a massive stimulus push after its economy had cratered, but that doesn't mean this reflation trade will be anything but temporary. For now we've seen a healthy response to these reflationary pressures coming out of China. I think Developed markets in particular, locked in a deflationary spiral for so long, may carry the economic torch for a little while, but like the Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff, will eventually realize that China is not there to hold them up.
    With that said, by no means does that mean the dollar is going to start rising right away. Spreads between US and the rest of the world are near record highs. Hopes of stronger economic growth under Trump appear misguided at best (see US optimism). The weaker dollar should also buy China a little extra time as well.

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    27 1 2017 21:58

    8       0

    Fantastic interview guys. Thanks a lot!