Financial Engineering, Unfunded Pensions and Potential Disaster

Published on
April 10th, 2019
Duration
37 minutes

Financial Engineering, Unfunded Pensions and Potential Disaster

Skin In The Game ·
Featuring Brian Reynolds

Published on: April 10th, 2019 • Duration: 37 minutes

Brian Reynolds, former chief market strategist at Rosenblatt Securities, sits down with Real Vision's Tyler Neville to discuss how unfunded pension liabilities are the real engine for the US credit boom and how this financial engineering has produced one of the greatest bull markets in history. A legal mandate requires these funds to generate 7.5% returns, and when they fail to do so, taxpayers foot the bill. As a larger percentage of these pensions are moved onto corporate balance sheets in the form of debt, the tightrope these pension funds walk gets more and more precarious. Filmed on March 25, 2019 in Goffstown, New Hampshire.

Comments

Transcript

  • GD
    Gianluca D.
    10 September 2019 @ 16:31
    Best Interview, this guy was amazing. Thank you for sharing
  • IH
    Ian H.
    7 September 2019 @ 18:55
    one of the best interviews on real vision.
  • JL
    John L.
    2 August 2019 @ 09:17
    When can we have Brian Reynolds on again?
  • RR
    Robert R.
    5 June 2019 @ 13:35
    I have watched this so many times. RV get Brian back on, he is brilliant.
  • JD
    James D.
    18 May 2019 @ 19:55
    ..finding Brian is like discovering a long buried oracle that is able to provide another, cogent and incisive understanding of market actions, today and for the past couple of decades.
  • RU
    Roberto U.
    17 May 2019 @ 17:41
    This interview is worth the yearly renewal of my subscription!
  • RK
    Ryan K.
    12 May 2019 @ 21:18
    Get this guy back on. One of the best interviews I've seen in awhile.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    11 May 2019 @ 18:36
    I’ve watched this video several times and think it is one of the most important RV pieces to date. I had never heard of this explanation for fund flows before and it makes all the sense in the World to explain why the Equity markets keep melting up in the face of deteriorating fundamentals and ridiculous valuations (except that as Buffet points out the valuations are NOT ridiculous if these low rates are here to stay). I would love to have Macro Insiders weigh in on this thesis.
  • MN
    Maverick N.
    8 May 2019 @ 17:04
    Brilliant! Amazed by the clarity and fluency in Brian's thesis.
  • AF
    Aidan F.
    25 April 2019 @ 23:06
    turns the stomach a bit, very insightful though
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    19 April 2019 @ 20:02
    Where is the FED QE 4.5T ? many blame the FED for the buybacks as well. so the FED is int he junk bonds game as well?
  • TW
    Thomas W.
    19 April 2019 @ 14:37
    Now that's first rate professional insight. Talk about connecting the dots.
  • JT
    Jayne T.
    16 April 2019 @ 23:06
    Nice interview--some new information, but there was a junk bond market in 1984 and Drexel was doing the "predator's ball" (for junk bond investors) for a number of years. Also, D. Dimartino has been talking about this for years.
  • LS
    Leigh S.
    15 April 2019 @ 10:27
    I will need to listen to this again to fully digest the ideas. Such great content that adds another piece of advice even puzzle.
  • RD
    Rahul D.
    15 April 2019 @ 06:23
    Excellent!
  • MS
    Matt S.
    13 April 2019 @ 21:14
    That was excellent will def watch again
  • YB
    Yair B.
    13 April 2019 @ 16:10
    Fascinating! Also, that RV dude looks like Ryan Gosling!
  • EN
    Eric N.
    13 April 2019 @ 09:13
    Fantastic interview. I have a few questions though. Where does the money for the stock market come from when pensions only find high risk yield (~7.5% and higher) in credit, it can't be all buybacks, right?
  • DC
    Darren C.
    13 April 2019 @ 00:31
    This interview and the interviews with @alderlaneeggs are the best of the best of RealVision. Great job by the RealVision team.
  • KC
    Kenneth C.
    12 April 2019 @ 14:30
    Brian, thank you for filling in the backstory for a primary driver in this market. i really hope to see you as a regular contributor here at Real Vision. And Tyler, great job interviewing.
  • RS
    R S.
    12 April 2019 @ 06:53
    Amazing! And also wow, what a voice! That man is born for radio, can he please narrate my audiobooks??
  • WB
    William B.
    12 April 2019 @ 04:29
    Brian is awesome! Can’t wait for the next crisis so, hopefully, we get back to living within our means.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    12 April 2019 @ 01:06
    I think he’s right! What a mess this will be! Good job RV
  • RK
    Robert K.
    11 April 2019 @ 19:15
    When I meet wisdom I just raise my hat. I wish Brian would sit down with Jerome, Janet & Ben and gave these IYIs a lesson in how the real (vs the academic) economy works.
  • ns
    niall s.
    11 April 2019 @ 16:58
    Why does he talk of irrational moves in the Vix futures when it goes into backward action, it has always behaved that way .
  • SL
    Seth L.
    11 April 2019 @ 14:57
    Anyone know if there's a way to follow Brian's recent work?
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 April 2019 @ 17:17
      He is on this team and writes the occasional piece: https://dwyerstrategy.canaccordgenuity.com/
  • IH
    Iain H.
    11 April 2019 @ 13:53
    Terrific, the best yet and explains a lot!
  • SW
    Scott W.
    11 April 2019 @ 13:24
    I love RV. I love the trade ideas, the 5 minute segments on technical setups, the stuff about vol of vol with the math whizzes - it's a great platform with well-varied content. Having said that, every once in a while there's a segment where a luminary almost literally explains the world and makes the viewer think if only for a fleeting moment "okay, now I get it". And this might be the best of that ilk. Please have him back.
    • tW
      tgwtom W.
      11 April 2019 @ 20:34
      Nailed it. This is core RV.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    11 April 2019 @ 09:37
    Excellent interview, one of the best and most original perspectives
  • EF
    Eric F.
    11 April 2019 @ 02:29
    Fantastic interview, but would love to hear more around timings. The thought this can continue another 3 years seems beyond belief. It does feel to me like we are in the final innings, but then again, how many hedge funds have died saying that across the last 8 years?
    • SC
      Sean C.
      11 April 2019 @ 11:04
      I have heard we're in the last innings a lot this year. I will ask another question, why can't there be a lot of scoring in the last innings? Who's to say we don't melt up due to negative sentiment?
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      12 April 2019 @ 01:10
      Moody’s s&p fitch are paid by the borrowers that’s why their late to the game!!!!
  • CA
    Craig A.
    11 April 2019 @ 01:51
    Moodys and the credit agencies will once again get a lot of the blame for being let to the game.
  • JM
    John M.
    11 April 2019 @ 00:50
    This may be too obvious but why don't pensions just keep increasing member contribution rates? Shifting from defined benefit to defined contribution just transfers financial risks to financially unsophisticated beneficiaries.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    11 April 2019 @ 00:41
    -JP Morgan's Guide to the Markets says that from 2000-2017 the share count accounted for 3% of annual EPS growth with the rest of EPS driven by revenue and margins. Yet we see many incl Brian here, saying buybacks are driving the mkt. How can that be? -And they say buybacks are the only buyer in the market. But the 24Tn mkt cap of SPX has a much larger back & forth flow of buyers and sellers than 500bn of buybacks. A credit boom touches much else besides buybacks. It is those effects which are more important - lower corp borrowing rates and higher leverage. Yet it is supposedly only about buybacks. -Brian mentioned that we are in a historic credit boom. But corp credit/ GDP is at 47% and hasn't run up more than in previous cycles? -Brian mentioned non regulated cash funds as a sector to watch. But I couldn't find anything that might fit this description. What is this?
    • CM
      C M.
      15 April 2019 @ 16:29
      Federal Reserve is showing corporate credit to GDP at 74% so not sure where your number is coming from. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSCAM770A It is at highest levels in history in both dollars and % of GDP. Also buybacks in 2018 exceeded 1 Trillion Dollars for the total market. And according to Yardini, for SP 500 they were at record levels in 2018. Hard to believe this doesn't impact market prices by providing demand for stocks. https://www.yardeni.com/pub/buybackdiv.pdf
    • RM
      Robert M.
      17 April 2019 @ 03:56
      Using non financial corp debt: FRED - BCNSDODNS. This is the series that looks most like what most commentators seem to be using. Your # is the entire private sector incl households. And is 247%.
  • JV
    John V.
    10 April 2019 @ 23:55
    They dont call him Iron Horse for nothing!
  • RP
    Raoul P. | Founder
    10 April 2019 @ 23:48
    This, to me, shows how big a deal the BBB market is and what happens if large parts get downgraded to junk. The herd mentality will kick in and not a buyer will be seen. It is a matter of when and not if. The entire credit market over time is becoming lower and lower quality as the size gets bigger and bigger. When that credit cycle stops, so does the buyback market. This seems to be the cycle we face at some point in the next recession. And as ever, most of this will end up on the Feds balance sheet...and we move another step towards the Great Debt Jubilee... and whatever that entails. This is when the gold lovers will have their very long awaited day in the sun. This seems as clear to me as day... its the timing of the next recession and how the Fed stops this mechanism that is key.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      11 April 2019 @ 02:10
      Would love ideas for how you play that, beyond longer term play of holding gold. My guess is that it is probably difficult to do.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 April 2019 @ 08:03
      This article from Nov18 puts the lowest IG grade of Moody's (they call it Baa) at $2.8Tn and is just under half of all IG debt and growing fast. And the size of this lowest tranche of Baa, called Baa3 is already 57% of all Junk debt! So when it goes it will cause a big commotion in the junk mkt. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-investment-grade-corporate-bonds-now-riskier-than-before-each-recession-since-1981-moodys-2018-11-16
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 April 2019 @ 08:06
      The money quote from my link: “Thus, from the perspective of dollar amounts outstanding, the U.S. investment-grade corporate-bond market is now riskier than it was before each recession since 1981 and possibly all prior downturns through the late 1940s,” Lonski said.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 April 2019 @ 08:09
      A rough comparison with the last cycle is that the value of US subprime mortgages was estimated at $1.3 trillion as of March 2007.
    • VP
      Vincent P.
      11 April 2019 @ 13:46
      Yes, another step to the Great Credit Jubilee for sure. Just wondering, that given all the degradation in credit quality, credit worthiness, low to negative rates/rates, it is possible that the "powers that be", the Bilderbergs of the world etc, combined with CB's and credit hierarchy declare a REBRANDING of the credit scale calling BBB the new AAA? Exaggerating the point but the reset would be a "keep the charade going practical solution, similar to the suspension of "mark to market" in 2009 pricing holdings to maturity. See? All fixed.! Crazy right?
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    10 April 2019 @ 23:17
    Can someone please explain the link between a surge of LBO's and an inverted 10-2yr yield curve? Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 April 2019 @ 00:10
      I think... cheap long term credit makes Private Equity acquisitions cheap to fund via leverage
    • RM
      Robert M.
      11 April 2019 @ 00:49
      Perhaps because the driver of M&A is late cycle tighter margins and a slowing growth outlook. This coincides with end of cycle strong corp bond investment demand and high share price valuations both making financing of M&A more possible.
    • DP
      David P.
      13 April 2019 @ 15:37
      There is only an incidental link. Equity investors sponsoring LBOs are simply solving for an IRR over, typically, a 5-7 year timeframe. If the debt markets will support multiples and rates that, along with operating projections / post-deal divestitures, allow an equity sponsor to achieve a pre-determined IRR hurdle rate then they proceed. These hurdle rates have fluctuated over the last 25 years, with larger funds (e.g., Blackstone) typically targeting lower hurdle rates as a function of the overall capital they have to deploy. Interestingly, in the lead-up to the GFC increasingly funds were having to model in post-deal dividend recaps (distributions) to achieve desired IRR targets. This would involve modeling an initial period of de-leveraging, maybe 18 months, and then re-levering with proceeds funding a dividend distribution to the equity sponsor. This brings forward cash returns and boosts IRRs. Also some sponsors have fund documents that allow re-investment of capital if it occurs during a certain timeframe. I was in that world then, not as much now. My guess is something similar occurring now, where sponsors are having to model in aggressive re-caps in order to achieve even mid-teen gross IRRs....
  • CT
    Craig T.
    10 April 2019 @ 22:39
    Brian Reynolds opened my mind to another realm of forces influencing equity prices. It is an area I have never studied in any detail. Guess I need to! Stock buybacks, gahh!
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    10 April 2019 @ 22:23
    Shockingly clear and useful! Great presentation. Thanks
  • RA
    Robert A.
    10 April 2019 @ 22:16
    Excellent job Tyler! Always interesting to see such a different viewpoint from an excellent source. Not sure I understand all the transmission mechanisms and I did see a few generalizations about what the Pension funds are doing that I’m not sure I agree with...that said I really enjoyed hearing, at least to my ear, quite a different well reasoned perspective. Unique piece and very enjoyable—good job RV.
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    10 April 2019 @ 21:12
    Good job Tyler, it was great to have the credit knowledge grom Brian mixed with a trader's experience during the conversation
  • DP
    David P.
    10 April 2019 @ 20:51
    A rare dud on RealVision...Implication or actual statement that Q4 2018 drawdown in equities has happened 35 times in the last 10 years!
    • JZ
      John Z.
      10 April 2019 @ 21:27
      Agree, he makes a number of claims that are categorically false: 1) He makes it seem like pensions have just now begun investing in credit. False, they have been investing in credit for decades. 2) The 7.5% he refers to is a generalization. Each pension has their own return objective and is dependent on the state’s regulations and requirements for beneficiaries, like COLA’s. (COLA = Cost of living adjustment.). Pension investment managers would love to lower this hurdle, especially with lower rates. 3) Pensions aren’t buying credit so corporations can buy back stock, LOL. Corporations issue debt for a number of reasons, including growth expansions like infrastructure, M&A, hiring, etc. They would only issue debt to buy back stock if they’re looking to decrease float or equity is trading at a significant discount to intrinsic value. “Is the project NPV positive?” Welcome back to corporate finance 101. 4) His comments about Q4 are comical. Markets selling off (both equity and credit) is a basic supply/demand principle. “Fundamental managers HATE this.” FALSE. If you’re a fundamental manager that is worth his/her grain of salt, you live for price dislocations. 5) “Nobody talks about credit”. “Everybody hates stocks.” More broad generalizations that are false. CNBC and Bloomberg talk more about stocks because they’re more volatile and sexier. 6) MY FAVORITE - “Pensions are selling stock to buy credit.” LOL also FALSE and goes against everything else he’s said. If a 7.5 return target is hard to achieve, why would they sell a riskier asset with higher return potential to invest in a less risky asset? Someone is going to say “credit is riskier than stocks” and this is when I will laugh, again. Equity falls below credit in a company’s capital structure. In other words, equity takes first loss, and therefore credit is inherently less risky. If a company were to go bankrupt entirely, these credit funds that he hates so much have a claim on the assets of the company, like PPE etc. Pensions are moving away from cash/debt to alternatives, EM, etc. in order to increase risk and hit return targets. RV, YOU’RE BETTER THAN THIS!!!
  • PK
    Phil K.
    10 April 2019 @ 20:34
    fantastic interview, thank you! would love to get Raouls perspective on it (or get them very soon together in another interview). i would also love to get some more "so what can a retail investor do..." insights. thanks!
  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    10 April 2019 @ 20:04
    Extremely good interview . Great insight that explains a lot of mystery. Thank you !
  • NI
    Nate I.
    10 April 2019 @ 20:00
    Question for Brian Reynolds if he is reading the comments. Do you think State & Local government is approaching a breaking point where the game can't continue (i.e. hike taxes and raise voter ire or reallocate and impact critical infrastructure/functions)? Or is there some room to run there? Thanks for such a great interview!
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      11 April 2019 @ 14:49
      Hey Nate- It's Tyler (the second fiddle to Brian in the Interview). I think Brian would say we aren't approaching a breaking point yet as corporate earnings continue to grow and we haven't technically hit a recession. However, we are seeing an exodus of people out of the higher tax states into states like Texas, Florida and Arizona from California, New York & Illinois as the cost of living goes up in those higher tax states and those taxes hollow out the middle class. I think Brian would say there is room to run until earnings at Google, FB, AMZN etc really start to disappoint....Then it becomes a snake eating its own tail...
  • MH
    Matt H.
    10 April 2019 @ 19:55
    A inspired seer on RV. Clearest view of coming attractions.
  • AT
    Adam T.
    10 April 2019 @ 19:44
    Thoroughly enjoyed, great insight
  • CS
    Christopher S.
    10 April 2019 @ 19:17
    So many "experts" want to fight the tape and be seen as right, so few want to find a proper explanation for what is happening, preferring to simply say the "madness has to end". This guy is a breath of fresh air.
  • TM
    Timothy M.
    10 April 2019 @ 19:09
    Brian provided some keen historical and current insight into the credit markets. What continues to amaze me is the depth of the market for these covenant lite loans with underlying companies that have a poor business model. In most cases, these companies can't go to JPM or BAC and obtain a traditional bank loan, but the bank's Capital Markets teams are happy to sell these crap loans in the open market. With $10 trillion of negative yielding debt world wide, Brian's opinion of two to three years left before a crisis makes sense to me.
  • NH
    Neil H.
    10 April 2019 @ 18:50
    one of the best videos yet. I would love to have him back and talk about how the leveraged loan market eventually blows up, much like Drexel years ago.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    10 April 2019 @ 18:34
    Wow. Great work RV. Brian Reynolds offered an excellent explanation of why the equity market is so disconnected from fundamentals. This credit cascade made perfect sense. The pension blow-up from chasing 7.5% in a 2% world will be epic. Even Warren Buffett has said 6% is about the limit for a pension and that was long before repression. 7.5 just isn't going to happen.
    • DR
      David R.
      10 April 2019 @ 20:49
      Maybe 7.5% happens in an MMT paradigm with 25-50% inflation?
  • MM
    Mike M.
    10 April 2019 @ 18:15
    Smart guy......thanks.
  • PB
    Pieter B.
    10 April 2019 @ 18:11
    I really enjoyed this conversation! Massive thanks!
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    10 April 2019 @ 17:55
    Very well done. Electricians, Plumbers and BTFHYD another 10-15 times until it's a crisis!! Interesting LBO wave theory. Thought equities under performed after 2/10 inversion but what do I know. Bring 'em back! Really good!
  • CH
    Colin H.
    10 April 2019 @ 17:52
    Educational. Thanks
  • AK
    Anthony K.
    10 April 2019 @ 17:47
    Thankfully that's not happening here in Illinois, Cook County and Chicago.......
  • DR
    David R.
    10 April 2019 @ 17:24
    One of the better RV interviews of all time. I remember how it was so encouraging that the Federal Court struck down that state pension, as Brian explained, but it became a one-of-a-kind. Government unions are too powerful and must be curtailed. But meanwhile, to help prevent certain financial disaster and the biggest market crash in living memory, legislation must immediately be passed in most western countries to: 1) Immediately convert all public sector pensions from DB to DC plans with zero taxpayer-funded top up; 2) Remove all taxpayer liability from the exorbitant and underfunded public sector pensions, paid by taxpayers who typically haven't any such rich pension themselves; 3) BAN all corporate share buybacks, immediately. Get real again!
    • EF
      Eric F.
      11 April 2019 @ 02:18
      Don’t disagree with you David, but if they ban CBBs - which I really hope they do, as it completely misaligns incentives - the market will totally crater.
    • TT
      Trenton T.
      11 April 2019 @ 12:57
      Great ideals but political rancor will prevent any progress. Best to enumerate probable outcomes and position accordingly.
  • SM
    Sean M.
    10 April 2019 @ 17:15
    Are these buybacks then giving the companies a lower float therefore allowing less volume to change the price more? I'm referring to the talk around 11:15?
    • DR
      David R.
      10 April 2019 @ 17:26
      Yes, at least that's how I interpreted it too.
    • TN
      Tyler N. | Real Vision
      11 April 2019 @ 14:50
      Hey Sean- Yes, not only is there smaller float in equities but the since most participants in the market aren't REAL buyers & sellers it takes less of % of trading volume to move the price of a stock. So buybacks are generally 5% of daily trading volume which is why the market grinds up on nothing almost daily. When buyback blackout periods happen around earnings that's when the market can actually sell-off. The % of trading volume it takes to most a stock is probably the most unknown fact by everyone in the market these days including some of the most prestigious Hedge Fund Managers. Since HFT is now 70% of daily trading volume, big institutions can't buy or sell things at the prices they want- the market has been completely hollowed out. Imagine a cruise ship trying to navigate thru a river- the bigger you are the harder it is. Ask any trader at a fund that manages more than a billion dollar and they'll give you the same answer. "Price is a liar, Price is an equilibrium of liquidity". We'll try to do a better piece on market liquidity soon!
  • RS
    Roger S.
    10 April 2019 @ 17:09
    No where else have I heard stated the fact that state income tax increases have exceeded the amount of the federal income tax cuts. Hard to believe this went so unnoticed.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    10 April 2019 @ 16:41
    What an absolutely brilliant interview. I loved it and learnt so much as I so often do with RV videos. If only Presidents and Fed Chairs spent some serious time with credit experts like Brian to really understand what drives leverage, and how it almost always ends in bust and disaster. I do hope Brian is right about us having another two or three years before the fan is full of excrement and the music stops, but the recent yield curve inversion of the 10 year and 3 month UST's has already happened as Tyler mentioned, and most empirical studies suggest this has historically been a more accurate predictor of subsequent recessions, but either way, the clock is ticking down to that next crisis and bear market! Thanks RV for these priceless insights.
    • EF
      Eric F.
      11 April 2019 @ 02:22
      I really hope we don’t see another 3 years of this madness Terry. I must admit I’m biased as super bearish and itching to short. But also, this environment is dangerous and the longer it goes the bigger the bust / damage, so from that point I think the quicker this madness is brought to an end the better.
  • EN
    Eric N.
    10 April 2019 @ 16:30
    Thank you RV. I know I sound like a broken record, but what else is there to say to an interview such as this one.
  • JS
    Jason S.
    10 April 2019 @ 16:09
    Awesome interview & analysis on credit. Please do more on credit. We (retail investors) don't really get to hear that side of the story much - its always about equities!
  • NG
    Nick G.
    10 April 2019 @ 14:55
    An excellent explanation of the internal workings of the credit markets. The surprise is how this is a surprise to people. Just goes to show that you need to focus more on the engine of everything, which is, always was and always will be: the bond market. Probably the least understood part of the financial system. PS: I loved the "it's like a light switch, it's either on or off." Anyone who has run a bond book knows how true that is...
  • dd
    david d.
    10 April 2019 @ 14:48
    amazing interview, we want more interviews like this one
  • BB
    Brian B.
    10 April 2019 @ 14:02
    Awesome interview! Reynolds is one of the best at truly "seeing the forest through the trees". Great job by the interviewer as well! Bravo RV
  • PT
    Phil T.
    10 April 2019 @ 14:00
    Same old story; taxpayers will end up bailing out bad behavior, & knowing this, the pension funds have little incentive to change their risky behavior; in fact, the greater the number of irresponsible pension funds, the greater their influence for bailouts by Congress.
  • GG
    Guillermo G.
    10 April 2019 @ 13:53
    Sorry RV, wrong interviewer, you need to put Michael Green or Raoul or Grant with this guy. Looks like Mr. Reynolds has way more look out and knowledge of the credit markets than anybody you have presented. Please put him back on ASAP with somebody asking the questions. Urgent!
    • EF
      Eric F.
      11 April 2019 @ 02:25
      I think your comment is far too harsh as the interviewer did a great job and his trading background enabled him to ask relevant questions and make insightful comments.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    10 April 2019 @ 13:01
    This one goes into the vault. One of RV's very best.
  • TB
    Terence B.
    10 April 2019 @ 12:24
    Great interview. Sad and scary, but very informative.
    • HJ
      Harry J.
      10 April 2019 @ 17:18
      Have you been asleep?
  • SL
    Seth L.
    10 April 2019 @ 12:06
    Wow, what an interview. Made me rethink my entire view of markets. Really interesting and well done!
  • DR
    David R.
    10 April 2019 @ 11:48
    Good one. It's unfunded corporate pensions, Soc Security (a giant ponzi scheme) and most of all, the massive lush public sector pensions at all levels of government. More than a "potential" disaster. It's an inevitable disaster, on top of the other like student loans and junk corporate bonds. The US is headed for a perfect storm that will make 2007-09 look like good times. Some savvy economic commentators have explained for years how the massive public pension crisis looming in the US will lead to a massive US economic implosion and depression that'll be worse than the 1930's. Alternatively, pensions will be backstopped and "paid" by money printing (because taxpayers are mathematically incapable of backstopping pensions), resulting in a Weimer-like hyperinflation scenario. Pick your poison. Either way, protect yourself or else go down with the ship.
    • RS
      Rajat S.
      10 April 2019 @ 14:38
      "Alternatively, pensions will be backstopped and "paid" by money printing (because taxpayers are mathematically incapable of backstopping pensions), resulting in a Weimer-like hyperinflation scenario." - Millennials are toast. This is where the candid view in this interview is great and scary to death. Your 200k salary can get you bread and butter at that time and you will be happy if that's true.
    • DR
      David R.
      10 April 2019 @ 15:31
      Rajat, yep u got it.
    • DS
      David S.
      10 April 2019 @ 17:30
      No worries David R. MMT will pay for it all. (Tongue buried in cheek.) DLS
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    10 April 2019 @ 10:57
    Wow, one of the best interviews yet. Excellent, thanks RV and Brian
  • YB
    Yuriy B.
    10 April 2019 @ 10:56
    wow. brilliant. one of the best interviews real vision has ever had. on par with druckenmiller.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      10 April 2019 @ 16:31
      I agree with most of the comments, this was an amazing and informative interview! For someone who has watched the stock market over the last 7-8 years in total disbelief, this brings it full circle!! Bring Brian back as soon as possible.