Aspen Trading With Dave Floyd

Featuring Dave Floyd

Regular Real Vision commentator Dave Floyd returns with his usual mix of strong technical analysis and highly disciplined trade ideas. This time, Dave outlines how he has turned constructively bullish on oil, with one more correction expected to the upside. This view leads him to some interesting opportunities in the FX market, including the Norwegian Krone, for the months ahead, as well as what to do after the pullback in gold.

Published on
5 October, 2016
Topic
US Dollar, Trading, Technical Analysis
Duration
16 minutes
Asset class
Commodities, Currencies
Rating
14

Comments

  • JV

    JP V.

    17 10 2016 11:53

    0       0

    great stuff Dave, keep'm coming

  • DF

    Dave F.

    10 10 2016 20:42

    0       0

    From July 5th.....GBP/USD targeting 1.1900...dang, this TA stuff works....scroll down to see GBP/USD chart

    http://www.aspentrading.com/guess-what-you-dont-need-to-own-stocks/

  • DF

    Dave F.

    10 10 2016 18:15

    0       0

    Hi Francis - regarding COT, it is not a report/measure I have really used over the years, so I have no real insight for you.

    Sorry...

  • DF

    Dave F.

    10 10 2016 18:13

    1       0

    Hi Jeff,

    My neighbor is a film maker - so lucky me, I get him to do my videos - he has all the high end equipment/lighting.

    I just don't have the fancy catered lunches, Ari Gold as my agent and a trailer to live like a Hollywood actor

  • JB

    Jeff B.

    9 10 2016 19:43

    0       0

    Love the commentary, but I'm interested to know what video setup you use to film and record mic & screen. You do a nice job with it.

  • FW

    Francis W.

    8 10 2016 18:05

    0       0

    Hey Dave, great work as always. I'm interested in your view on the COT in the gold market that Peter Brandt has been cautioning gold bulls about. Staying in the trade for now but welcome your view on this specifically. THX!

  • JS

    Jon S.

    8 10 2016 03:08

    1       0

    Dave, I see you mentioned you'll position NGD based on GLD. What do you mean? NGD has obviously lagged with the price of GLD lately. Are you sitting tight with NGD? raising stops? do you see it reversing this slide? thx, jon

  • SS

    Sam S.

    7 10 2016 15:40

    0       0

    Someone knocking at the door----let'em in. Hope not the margin call bankers. The Fed has pinned volatility too---just in other ways.

  • KE

    Kenan E.

    6 10 2016 18:12

    2       0

    Hey Dave,

    Thank you for a great Video -- again!!! Looking forward to your technical analysis series!

    Tried to get a hold on your recommended read on EW "dynamic trading" but it's really hard to get (out of print). I am located in Germany and ordered it twice from the US. First packet was "lost" the other one is on its way since over 4 weeks now...

  • DF

    Dave F.

    6 10 2016 12:22

    4       0

    Hi James - in my opinion there is ZERO edge in EUR/USD presently. Just like I said in the video, sideways chop offers no clarity at all.

    I am not even looking at EUR/USD until prices prices break, up or down, plenty of other pairs/crosses that are offering far more clarity.

  • TM

    The-First-James M.

    6 10 2016 03:18

    0       0

    Hi Dave, I would really welcome any thoughts you might have on the EURUSD cross. I've been knocked out of a short position over the last 48 hours - probably through running a stop that was too tight. Really looks like it's coiling for something but difficult to figure out if it's higher or lower. I felt with the EU Banking issues it would be lower, but 50 - 100 day EMAs are bullish and we now have the Euro QE Taper BS clouding the picture. Intriguing...

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 20:50

    0       0

    Hi William,

    JPY weakness, i.e. USD/JPY may not impact USD too much:

    1. JPY is a modest % of dollar index
    2. USD/JPY has moved lower while DXC has been sideways - so why cn't DXC move lower if USD/JPY rallies? Basically correlations are not always so rigid
    3. Who says a strong dollar - assuming you believe that - will prevent gold from rallying?

    Correlations are always in flux - read the charts - they tell you what market is thinking....which is always better then us mere mortals trying to create the story of 'if this moves 'x'; then this will move 'y'

  • wc

    william c.

    5 10 2016 19:49

    0       0

    Dave. Thanks for the video and info. If usdjpy really has a chance to get up to 105plus, the resulting dollar strength will likely be a headwind for gold. Is the gold GCZ6 recent shakeout down to 1265 a buying opportunity if usdjpy continues a rally...?.. Maybe the weak yen part of usdjpy is really the culprit, but weak yen usually would add to gold heaviness as well. Please include any thoughts for clarity. THANKS for the great video.

  • de

    dale e.

    5 10 2016 18:23

    3       0

    Dave is always a must watch and a great teacher.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 17:50

    0       0

    Hi Michael - my decision on NGD will be dictated by what gold (GLD) does.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 17:49

    0       0

    Hi George - I do not trade futures - so base all TA on GLD in this instance.

  • MD

    Michael D.

    5 10 2016 17:31

    1       0

    Dave -- Appreciate your timely and always incredibly informative thoughts. Understand you're still positive GLD, but wonder where you place the stop loss on NDG?

  • GG

    George G.

    5 10 2016 16:08

    0       0

    Good stuff Dave...I note that you are using GLD for your tech analysis. It would be helpful if you used spot gold so that I could adjust my instruments (miners etc) to your valuable suggestions

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 14:33

    0       0

    Oscar - would also highly recommend a book I just finished reading - The Hour Between Dog & Wolf

    https://www.amazon.com/Hour-Between-Dog-Wolf-Transforms/dp/0143123408

  • SR

    Stephan R.

    5 10 2016 14:18

    3       0

    Hey Dave, Great presentation and trading ideas as always. The Yen strenth could be in part due to repatriation from overseas assets to pay for pension benefits etc. Unless this abates or the helicopter flies in, the short yen trade will have strong headwinds. Any thoughts, why this should change or what the catalyst for the sustainalble reversal in the YEN could be?

  • bp

    bart p.

    5 10 2016 14:06

    2       0

    Good - as usual - really a great addition to the already fabulous project that is RealVision.

  • DH

    Dan H.

    5 10 2016 14:00

    2       0

    awesome video would love to see more

  • RM

    Robert M.

    5 10 2016 13:41

    0       0

    I was talking about Brent

  • RM

    Robert M.

    5 10 2016 13:39

    0       1

    If oil goes above $50 that will make a lot of Us shale oil come back online.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 13:31

    1       0

    Oscar - thanks for the question. Here is a list of books & research I consider very useful:

    http://www.aspentrading.com/lp/top-trading-resouce-list/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=banner-ad&utm_content=the-list&utm_campaign=july-list-promo

  • O_

    Oscar _.

    5 10 2016 13:26

    1       0

    Dave - can you tell us what research you recommend to read on a daily / weekly / monthly basis?

    many thanks

  • O_

    Oscar _.

    5 10 2016 13:17

    1       0

    great as usual

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 13:14

    4       0

    Ken, 'free market'....what is that?

    The world has gone to shit for sure. There is little doubt that these academic tinkerers are so clueless and have wreaked such havoc that the long-term implications are scary.

    One can only hope that these tenured professors are ridiculed and discredited....but I am not holding my breath!

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 13:12

    0       0

    Alexander - that is fantastic - now you are playing with house money.

    Hopefully the ideas on gold and NOK will add to your accounts in weeks and months to come.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    5 10 2016 13:11

    1       0

    Stephen A. - at what time point in the video did I say that? I was likely saying long USD/JPY....either way, to be clear, I see the 'potential' for a really weak JPY, timing, as always, will be a bit tougher to come by.

  • KT

    Ken T.

    5 10 2016 13:06

    1       0

    Dave: I admire your persistence to trade currencies in a market where central banks, politicians, etc. are adding "so much influence" that you can really question if there is a free market at all. Your discussion on the Yen goes directly to my point. I enjoy your discussion on currency trades but I don't have the nerves to trade them in this "un-market" environment.

  • sa

    stephen a.

    5 10 2016 12:14

    0       0

    I am confused, you said long the yen, but then you said good chance of the yen weakening.

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    5 10 2016 11:49

    0       0

    goes*

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    5 10 2016 11:47

    1       1

    Ditto Alex above. I love when he through his way of technical analysis and charting

  • AM

    Alexander M.

    5 10 2016 11:06

    8       0

    Thanks Dave. Your last video paid for my RVTV renewal fee and then some.