Dollar Uptrend in Question

Featuring Dave Floyd

Dave Floyd from Aspen Trading checks in with another technically rich, chart-heavy, market analysis. In this edition, Dave considers whether there is more upside for the dollar and if it’s now time to back the euro, while getting to grips with the $21 trillion question of how much further can the S&P advance? Filmed on March 6, 2017.

Published on
8 March, 2017
Topic
Trading, Technical Analysis
Duration
25 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Currencies
Rating
25

Comments

  • DF

    Dave F.

    4 4 2017 14:50

    0       0

    Thanks Dilip.

    Filming today for my outlook for April as well as re-cap last months forecasts and trades. Here are my notes regarding those forecasts:

    Here are the notes that review last month’s trade calls/forecasts. I like how you did the graphics last video where it has the verbiage at the bottom of the screen:

    • S&P’s – I cited 2363 and 2385 as levels to watch….nothing really has happened
    • TXN – this was the one bright spot. Mentioned it as a long at $78.59 with a target of $81. Target hit, +3%. The Call Spread was bought for $1.78 per contract and sold at $3.92, +120%
    • Starbucks – revised stop-loss was a break back below $55.87 – long from $54.47, +2.5% gain
    • Dollar Index (DXC) – was neutral last month with a modest downside bias. Noted a break below 101.28 suggested weakness….it did result in a push lower.
    o As a result of DXC move, I had said that if EUR/USD went above 105.86 that was bullish. High was put in at 109, a gain of +300 pips
    • The suggestion that a break below .9350 in NZD/CAD would be bearish worked initially, but at current levels .9370, it really has been a non-event. If you are patient, I still see lower levels.

  • PS

    PD S.

    1 4 2017 19:32

    0       0

    great video as always from dave floyd--he is da man! :)

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 3 2017 23:41

    1       0

    For those curious about further insights to Elliott Wave (EW) and some of the scanners and computer driven wave counts, I address some client questions about them here: https://www.aspentrading.com/fact-vs-fluff-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-scans/

  • SB

    Sean B.

    9 3 2017 17:18

    1       0

    Dave F. - I think your videos are of great value for most technical analysis presentations (on CNBC or other sources) show just one study to make a conclusion and they are usually just simple resistence, support, or head and shoulders studies. Whereas, you show multiple studies at a time including more advanced studies, and how they related to each other. Keep em coming! Much appreciated!

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 3 2017 14:26

    2       0

    Fred C - actually having the wave labels IS DEFINITIVE....if you understand EW

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 3 2017 14:25

    3       0

    Morning Fred.

    I understand about the EW stuff....but I cannot look at charts without the wave labels and offer insights that would be of value - it is too much a part of my approach.

    Simply ignore the labels - you don't have to look at them because at the end of each asset I profile, I usually tell you where I think it is going and where I am wrong.

    Why make it more complicated than that? People generally just want the 'just tell me what you think will happen' anyway.

    That is why each month going forward there will always be a review of what I forecast in the previous video and if I was right or wrong.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 3 2017 14:22

    1       0

    Ricardo - did not take it as personal...have a good morning

  • FC

    FRED C.

    9 3 2017 14:20

    0       0

    df
    really appreciate your efforts .....just a thought...for me all the elliott stuff complicates things and too many numbers letters etc.....its not definitive so why not show your thoughts and charts w/o all the wave stuff.....just my opinion and re the usd it seems to be making higher hi;s and lower lo;s you should speak to that when you have an alternate view....
    again not negative just get lost in all your wave stuff and i for one dont benefit with all the numbers. letters.....im long the dollar vs jpy, eur, aud, cad......and hkd.....
    fwiw ...my thoughts.....and tks for replying via the comments section...very nice of you...

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    9 3 2017 13:16

    0       1

    Yes, I do get value .. just stating what many of us may be thinking, nothing personal

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 3 2017 12:37

    5       0

    Hi Ricardo - since you are on 'Dave Floyd overload' you will be happy to know that I am back to a one episode per month filming schedule :)

    The Technical Analysis Series (6 episodes) just completed so that gave me a lot of exposure on RVTV.

    Despite you seeing my frequency as a negative, I hope you at least get some value from my videos - that is the main goal.

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    9 3 2017 12:03

    0       6

    Is Real Vision becoming Dave Floyd TV? I enjoy listening to him .. but this is far too much

  • BS

    Bryan S.

    9 3 2017 11:52

    0       0

    Great session once again. What were the number counts on your last chart? Is that TD sequential for Motivewave?

  • AG

    Andy G.

    9 3 2017 07:26

    3       0

    Hey Dave, Great job and thanks for adding more stocks to your analysis. Maybe next month you can show us more stocks that are ending wave 2 corrections/wave 3 breakouts?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 3 2017 04:17

    4       0

    Thanks Alex S - appreciate that - ain't easy making calls and then having to produce the scorecard

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 3 2017 04:17

    0       0

    Greg M - you are one of a few out there who has said that. Never have seen the show - not real sure why not - right up my alley.

  • GM

    Greg M.

    9 3 2017 03:19

    2       1

    I really enjoy learning about the technicals. Very informative. On a sidenote I was trying to think where I saw Dave before....then it hit me...Bobby Axelrod from billions.

  • AS

    Alex S.

    9 3 2017 02:12

    7       0

    Definitely appreciate Dave's willingness to put his neck out there and honestly reflect on his positions.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    8 3 2017 21:26

    5       0

    Isabella - 1% risk - just so we are clear, and that is assuming that is what 'you' would want for your max risk on a trade. In this case it was 1/4 size, so using your example, risking .25% of your capital. Hardly a risky proposition

    The size of the stop loss is IRRELEVANT is your position size properly. I could have a 20 pip stop-loss, considered 'small', but lever up and risk 20% of my capital and blow my account up.

  • IM

    Isabella M.

    8 3 2017 21:02

    0       0

    Suggesting a 1% allocation per trade is fine, but a 300 pip move against you in leveraged positions such as short AUDUSD is awkward. And the end is where again..?

  • MG

    Michael G.

    8 3 2017 20:43

    10       1

    Harry J. -- while flattered, remember opinions are like a@@holes and mine is nothing special. I am very sympathetic to Dave's interpretation of the S&P and fwiw think it's uniquely hard to short given (1) general focus from market participants and (2) market cap weighting which minimizes problems over time. There are easier fish to fry in almost every situation!

  • DF

    Dave F.

    8 3 2017 18:05

    1       0

    Thanks Gurdeep

  • DF

    Dave F.

    8 3 2017 18:04

    6       1

    Kash - hopefully one of the things that I convey in these videos is that no single piece of analysis will be the final arbiter. In terms of the S&P's, the more important factor as of right now is the lack of follow-through after the gap from March 1st
    Historically, prices that do not sustain the push higher on a gap higher tend to fare less well going forward.

    However, add to that the overall wave count, uptrend....it makes it hard to fight.

    How many short positions in the S&P's have worked in the last year? Exactly.

    Not saying the S&P's cannot crack lower, but I am smart enough to know I have next to no chance of calling a top or bottom with ant degree of consistency.

    I get it - every trader wants or worse, expects complete clarity and certainty. That is not possible trading is part science and a lot of art IMO.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    8 3 2017 17:59

    1       0

    Not following you Harry J

  • DF

    Dave F.

    8 3 2017 17:56

    9       0

    Hi Alan C....regarding NGD, I have always maintained that it was an investment (IRA/401k for me) and never was a trade.

  • MC

    Minum C.

    8 3 2017 17:48

    0       0

    Regarding the comment on S&P 500, I am reading elsewhere that "filling a gap up is usually bearish. And combined with extreme overheated conditions, the index was trading at just over two standard deviations on our indicator and its 14-day RSI stood at 72 on Friday; these could be the first technical indications in a while to suggest an exhaustion in the S&P 500 rally". I wonder if you could comment on the idea that filling a gap up usually being bearish as this seems to contradict what you said in the video.

  • AC

    Alan C.

    8 3 2017 17:28

    2       0

    Enjoy your videos. The trader's mantra is cut loses short, let winners run. How can you still be in NGD after that big hit? Sounds less like a trade, and more like an investment. Thanks for all the great videos.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    8 3 2017 16:36

    0       0

    I'll take Mike Green's opinion.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    8 3 2017 16:34

    0       7

    Can you say crap shoot

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    8 3 2017 11:02

    8       0

    My Man David, keeping this week live after Pippas piece yesterday! Great week so far for RV