Dollar Uptrend in Question

Published on
March 8th, 2017
Duration
25 minutes

Dollar Uptrend in Question

Featuring Dave Floyd

Published on: March 8th, 2017 • Duration: 25 minutes

Dave Floyd from Aspen Trading checks in with another technically rich, chart-heavy, market analysis. In this edition, Dave considers whether there is more upside for the dollar and if it’s now time to back the euro, while getting to grips with the $21 trillion question of how much further can the S&P advance? Filmed on March 6, 2017.

Comments

  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    4 April 2017 @ 14:50
    Thanks Dilip. Filming today for my outlook for April as well as re-cap last months forecasts and trades. Here are my notes regarding those forecasts: Here are the notes that review last month’s trade calls/forecasts. I like how you did the graphics last video where it has the verbiage at the bottom of the screen: • S&P’s – I cited 2363 and 2385 as levels to watch….nothing really has happened • TXN – this was the one bright spot. Mentioned it as a long at $78.59 with a target of $81. Target hit, +3%. The Call Spread was bought for $1.78 per contract and sold at $3.92, +120% • Starbucks – revised stop-loss was a break back below $55.87 – long from $54.47, +2.5% gain • Dollar Index (DXC) – was neutral last month with a modest downside bias. Noted a break below 101.28 suggested weakness….it did result in a push lower. o As a result of DXC move, I had said that if EUR/USD went above 105.86 that was bullish. High was put in at 109, a gain of +300 pips • The suggestion that a break below .9350 in NZD/CAD would be bearish worked initially, but at current levels .9370, it really has been a non-event. If you are patient, I still see lower levels.
  • PS
    PD S.
    1 April 2017 @ 19:32
    great video as always from dave floyd--he is da man! :)
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    12 March 2017 @ 23:41
    For those curious about further insights to Elliott Wave (EW) and some of the scanners and computer driven wave counts, I address some client questions about them here: https://www.aspentrading.com/fact-vs-fluff-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-scans/
  • SB
    Sean B.
    9 March 2017 @ 17:18
    Dave F. - I think your videos are of great value for most technical analysis presentations (on CNBC or other sources) show just one study to make a conclusion and they are usually just simple resistence, support, or head and shoulders studies. Whereas, you show multiple studies at a time including more advanced studies, and how they related to each other. Keep em coming! Much appreciated!
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    9 March 2017 @ 14:26
    Fred C - actually having the wave labels IS DEFINITIVE....if you understand EW
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    9 March 2017 @ 14:25
    Morning Fred. I understand about the EW stuff....but I cannot look at charts without the wave labels and offer insights that would be of value - it is too much a part of my approach. Simply ignore the labels - you don't have to look at them because at the end of each asset I profile, I usually tell you where I think it is going and where I am wrong. Why make it more complicated than that? People generally just want the 'just tell me what you think will happen' anyway. That is why each month going forward there will always be a review of what I forecast in the previous video and if I was right or wrong.
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    9 March 2017 @ 14:22
    Ricardo - did not take it as personal...have a good morning
  • FC
    FRED C.
    9 March 2017 @ 14:20
    df really appreciate your efforts .....just a thought...for me all the elliott stuff complicates things and too many numbers letters etc.....its not definitive so why not show your thoughts and charts w/o all the wave stuff.....just my opinion and re the usd it seems to be making higher hi;s and lower lo;s you should speak to that when you have an alternate view.... again not negative just get lost in all your wave stuff and i for one dont benefit with all the numbers. letters.....im long the dollar vs jpy, eur, aud, cad......and hkd..... fwiw ...my thoughts.....and tks for replying via the comments section...very nice of you...
  • RA
    Ricardo A.
    9 March 2017 @ 13:16
    Yes, I do get value .. just stating what many of us may be thinking, nothing personal
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    9 March 2017 @ 12:37
    Hi Ricardo - since you are on 'Dave Floyd overload' you will be happy to know that I am back to a one episode per month filming schedule :) The Technical Analysis Series (6 episodes) just completed so that gave me a lot of exposure on RVTV. Despite you seeing my frequency as a negative, I hope you at least get some value from my videos - that is the main goal.
  • RA
    Ricardo A.
    9 March 2017 @ 12:03
    Is Real Vision becoming Dave Floyd TV? I enjoy listening to him .. but this is far too much
  • BS
    Bryan S.
    9 March 2017 @ 11:52
    Great session once again. What were the number counts on your last chart? Is that TD sequential for Motivewave?
  • AG
    Andy G.
    9 March 2017 @ 07:26
    Hey Dave, Great job and thanks for adding more stocks to your analysis. Maybe next month you can show us more stocks that are ending wave 2 corrections/wave 3 breakouts?
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    9 March 2017 @ 04:17
    Thanks Alex S - appreciate that - ain't easy making calls and then having to produce the scorecard
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    9 March 2017 @ 04:17
    Greg M - you are one of a few out there who has said that. Never have seen the show - not real sure why not - right up my alley.
  • GM
    Greg M.
    9 March 2017 @ 03:19
    I really enjoy learning about the technicals. Very informative. On a sidenote I was trying to think where I saw Dave before....then it hit me...Bobby Axelrod from billions.
  • AS
    Alex S.
    9 March 2017 @ 02:12
    Definitely appreciate Dave's willingness to put his neck out there and honestly reflect on his positions.
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    8 March 2017 @ 21:26
    Isabella - 1% risk - just so we are clear, and that is assuming that is what 'you' would want for your max risk on a trade. In this case it was 1/4 size, so using your example, risking .25% of your capital. Hardly a risky proposition The size of the stop loss is IRRELEVANT is your position size properly. I could have a 20 pip stop-loss, considered 'small', but lever up and risk 20% of my capital and blow my account up.
  • IM
    Isabella M.
    8 March 2017 @ 21:02
    Suggesting a 1% allocation per trade is fine, but a 300 pip move against you in leveraged positions such as short AUDUSD is awkward. And the end is where again..?
  • MG
    Michael G. | Contributor
    8 March 2017 @ 20:43
    Harry J. -- while flattered, remember opinions are like a@@holes and mine is nothing special. I am very sympathetic to Dave's interpretation of the S&P and fwiw think it's uniquely hard to short given (1) general focus from market participants and (2) market cap weighting which minimizes problems over time. There are easier fish to fry in almost every situation!
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    8 March 2017 @ 18:05
    Thanks Gurdeep
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    8 March 2017 @ 18:04
    Kash - hopefully one of the things that I convey in these videos is that no single piece of analysis will be the final arbiter. In terms of the S&P's, the more important factor as of right now is the lack of follow-through after the gap from March 1st Historically, prices that do not sustain the push higher on a gap higher tend to fare less well going forward. However, add to that the overall wave count, uptrend....it makes it hard to fight. How many short positions in the S&P's have worked in the last year? Exactly. Not saying the S&P's cannot crack lower, but I am smart enough to know I have next to no chance of calling a top or bottom with ant degree of consistency. I get it - every trader wants or worse, expects complete clarity and certainty. That is not possible trading is part science and a lot of art IMO.
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    8 March 2017 @ 17:59
    Not following you Harry J
  • DF
    Dave F. | Contributor
    8 March 2017 @ 17:56
    Hi Alan C....regarding NGD, I have always maintained that it was an investment (IRA/401k for me) and never was a trade.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    8 March 2017 @ 17:48
    Regarding the comment on S&P 500, I am reading elsewhere that "filling a gap up is usually bearish. And combined with extreme overheated conditions, the index was trading at just over two standard deviations on our indicator and its 14-day RSI stood at 72 on Friday; these could be the first technical indications in a while to suggest an exhaustion in the S&P 500 rally". I wonder if you could comment on the idea that filling a gap up usually being bearish as this seems to contradict what you said in the video.
  • AC
    Alan C.
    8 March 2017 @ 17:28
    Enjoy your videos. The trader's mantra is cut loses short, let winners run. How can you still be in NGD after that big hit? Sounds less like a trade, and more like an investment. Thanks for all the great videos.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    8 March 2017 @ 16:36
    I'll take Mike Green's opinion.
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    8 March 2017 @ 16:34
    Can you say crap shoot
  • gg
    gurdeep g.
    8 March 2017 @ 11:02
    My Man David, keeping this week live after Pippas piece yesterday! Great week so far for RV