Getting Technical on Commodities and FX

Featuring Dave Floyd

Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading uses his technical analysis expertise to update the Real Vision audience on currency markets, commodities, and his outlook.

Published on
19 October, 2016
Topic
Trading, Technical Analysis
Duration
21 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Commodities
Rating
23

Comments

  • DR

    David R.

    15 11 2016 05:10

    0       0

    I know your a big fan of the Aus dollar/Newzealand, but you have any take on the USD/MXN peso? Given the presidential elect and his threats.
    p.s Im a huge fan of the videos, Im relatively new to trading (20 yrs old) and I've learned a lot just from listening to you. Thanks dave!

  • vL

    vincent L.

    13 11 2016 02:54

    1       0

    i appreciate your views. thank you david

  • GH

    Gloria H.

    27 10 2016 17:55

    1       0

    Your presentations are SO clear. Really looking forward tonyour series of educational TA videos.

  • SR

    Sean R.

    25 10 2016 04:35

    0       0

    Enjoyed that! Many thanks...

  • CS

    Chris S.

    24 10 2016 12:34

    3       0

    I'm just not a technical trader and seeing someone seriously counting waves and relying on Fibonacci relationships always makes me smile (even if he probably makes more money than me). But I liked the last bit about holding cash and waiting for opportunities. That is really important. No matter which philosophy you follow.

  • MB

    Mike B.

    24 10 2016 08:38

    0       0

    No comment on natural gas

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    23 10 2016 16:19

    0       0

    As Fahmy says everyone is basically cautious or bearish. Cash held at ATHs.

    These are not bearish

  • ii

    ida i.

    23 10 2016 12:52

    0       0

    For the rest I totally agree to have a lot of cash right, you seem like a nice person too!

  • ii

    ida i.

    23 10 2016 12:50

    0       0

    I agree but the COT data show that there are extreme bullish speculative positions, while the commercials are bearish! could you please comment? I know that COT data is not sufficient but it does make me prudent

  • de

    dale e.

    23 10 2016 03:15

    2       0

    david floyd IS an always for RV. He is gteat/

  • BC

    Burton C.

    22 10 2016 12:16

    0       2

    Dave
    So many better plays in the gold space IMO than NGD. They are debt soaked and need to finance everything from equipment on up. Why not go eith a better mid-tier. AGI, OGC, AR, BTG, MUX are just some examples.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    21 10 2016 21:47

    0       1

    Thanks William H

  • DF

    Dave F.

    21 10 2016 21:45

    0       0

    Richard S.....well, while it might not be much, and I completely get you humor and frustration in terms of interest rates, Goldman Sachs is offering 1.05% - in this day and age, pretty solid IMO

  • WM

    Will M.

    21 10 2016 18:55

    1       0

    I am not a trader, but I thoroughly enjoy your segment Dave together with the question response with the RV viewers. Closely watching gold and oil since I have the former and am "in" the latter :)

  • RS

    Richard S.

    21 10 2016 17:29

    2       0

    enjoyed your presentation but had to chuckle a little bit when you talked about preferring "to earn some interest on your cash in your account" Where is that possible ?

  • DH

    Dan H.

    21 10 2016 05:30

    1       1

    Thanks for another great video, just became an aspen client

  • wc

    william c.

    20 10 2016 23:16

    3       0

    Dave F. Greetings and thanks. Great video. Oil and gold perspectives very useful. Timing and term are always key parts of the strategy. Appreciate the effort and info. Thanks

  • DF

    Dave F.

    20 10 2016 18:32

    4       1

    Dean - NGD for me is a long-term hold

  • jb

    j b.

    20 10 2016 17:49

    1       0

    i follow order flow , was that u buying all those millions in uso calls , right be for opec? lol thanks for the great video

  • DM

    Dean M.

    20 10 2016 17:15

    2       0

    Dave, why particularly do you like NGD? Is it more of a trading position and you like the chart / set-up or do you like it as a long term gold holding?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    20 10 2016 16:37

    4       0

    Jin....never expected a question like that.

    Well, no, never was an MMA fighter, but am physically very active (mtn biking, skate skiing, weights, interval training) and have a pretty clean diet.

    Side note to that, staying in shape completely helps with trading in my opinion.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    20 10 2016 16:33

    2       0

    Hi Coxey - thanks for the question.

    I don't have a time frame, just the longer-term thesis....kinda like gold, I expect gold to move higher in the months/years to come and position accordingly. Not looking to time trades like these - counter-productive IMO

  • CL

    Chewy L.

    20 10 2016 15:25

    0       0

    Excellent video. Were you or are you a MMA fighter? You seem to be in great shape and someone who can kick some serious a$$

  • DF

    Dave F.

    20 10 2016 13:17

    0       0

    Traders,

    EUR/NOK, like EUR/CAD, suffered some delusional moments this AM as yet another gas bag central banker (Draghi) fluffed up price action for a brief period of time.

    Cooler heads appear to have prevailed.

    I/we have been short EUR/NOK for a couple of weeks and added a short EUR/CAD position into today's mayhem to the upside

  • GE

    GABI E.

    20 10 2016 07:04

    0       0

    Thanks Dave , very interesting Technical analysis. try to do it more often.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    20 10 2016 05:29

    0       0

    Thanks Dave, great as usual.
    I learnt from H. Marks (though not sure it's his, originally)
    “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”
    European bonds will crater, does your Technical Analysis give a suggestion on timeframe? (Sorry to ask....)

  • FM

    Fraser M.

    20 10 2016 04:47

    0       0

    In response to Mike Z's question below you referred to 'momentum divergences'; could you explain? Also, you said Aspen is short European bonds; what instrument are you using for that? Thanks!

  • JS

    Jon S.

    19 10 2016 23:02

    2       0

    Thanks Dave for the update.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 23:01

    2       0

    Hi Ken T - not real sure what to tell you - best to be long the underlying USD vs XXX or simply buy the ETF you noted outright. Options are not a good option in this case it appears.

  • KT

    Ken T.

    19 10 2016 22:52

    2       0

    Dave:
    In keeping with Raoul Pal's trade to be long both the USD and gold and in keeping with your current thoughts to be long gold, I am contemplating buying long-term calls in GLD and would like to know a good equally long-term USD vehicle in the options market. There is a bullish USD ETF (USDU) but its options chain is very short-term (3-4 months) and it appears thinly traded. Any thoughts from an active currency trader like yourself would be very helpful. Thanks.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 22:46

    13       0

    Dale H....thanks for the comments/questions.

    I will certainly go more in depth on my next video regarding % of cash, trade sizing etc etc - it requires one video just for that.

    If you, or any others here at RVTV have questions about portfolio allocation, trade sizing etc....PLEASE POST THEM HERE.

    I will incorporate those questions into my next RVTV video scheduled for Nov 8th or 9th.

    Best way to please the crowd is to ask for their input.

    Dave

  • JM

    John M.

    19 10 2016 22:28

    0       0

    Thanks for the great presentation Dave. Just wondering if you expect rates to rise modestly what if any impact on gold price?

  • DH

    Dale H.

    19 10 2016 19:57

    0       0

    David, that was GREAT. I'm looking forward to your next videos and to brushing up on my TA. I appreciate your thoughts on allocation and am interested that you are 60% cash. I get the strategy.. I am back in ASX gold shares that I know well and I stayed in a very strong company from Brent Cook recommendation. Based on what you said, I wonder if I should be more in cash. It must depend on the person; I don't trade as much as you. Also, I 'think' buying Stock in USD or CAD is hard for me because my home currency is NZD and I have a lot of AUD, so shares in other currencies I'm not sure. Any thoughts? Also how does someone get started trading currencies? It has always looked risky to me. Who to trust for beginners info?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 19:40

    1       0

    Hard to know Mike - time decay, price paid for calls and where you think prices go over the next few days/expiration all factor in.

    Options add a whole other layer complexity and require close trade management.

    I look at my options positions everyday and run analysis that shows how they will be priced based on my forecast of the underlying. Managing theta (time decay) is a daily focus for me.

    A good example of this was me closing a piece of the Nov GDX call spread I put on a week or so ago.

    It is up 47% as of the opening today - to me it was wise to book partial profits not because it was up so much, but because GDX is short-term overbought. Thus a pull-back in price simply accentuates the time decay of the spread.

    Make sense?

    With options, there is not usually a simple answer, many pieces go into the decision

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 19:00

    0       0

    Chris K....

    I have it labeled as an ending diagonal - in that instance there has to be overlap between wave 4 and Wave 1....Google 'ending diagonal' for an explanation

  • MZ

    MIKE Z.

    19 10 2016 18:58

    0       1

    Thanks I own november 12.50 calls
    based on your video two weeks ago and could close out with small profit.
    Thoughts?

  • CK

    Chris K.

    19 10 2016 18:48

    0       0

    in "01:10" aren't the third wave cannot regress pass the first wave to count as a valid elliot wave ? sorry I'm novice here

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 18:40

    0       0

    Mike Z.....you had to ask that question....didn't you....lol

    Yes, I though I had USO nailed on the near-term basis....I might have been a bit off.

    Nonetheless, I will wait for a deeper pull-back but realize we might go higher first. I see momentum divergences on this latest leg higher off overnight lows, so pretty sure I/we will get another look at long entries.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 18:35

    4       0

    William E.....ahhh yes.....the deer (buck)

    I wish I had some crazy trading story related to that, but I do not.

    It was a gift from my son a few years ago. We have acreage and have all sorts of wildlife passing through....lots of deer and other woodland creatures.

  • MZ

    MIKE Z.

    19 10 2016 18:34

    0       0

    With todays move in USO rising to
    11.70. Has your short term view changed. Thanks for your great
    analysis

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 18:32

    5       0

    Hi Enrico - myself as well as Aspen clients are short European bonds. The whole negative interest rate bullshit will eventually blow up spectacularly - and bonds will tank IMO.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 18:31

    6       0

    Harry J.....'Why is gold going up?'

    More buyers than sellers.....kidding, but there is certainly an element of truth to that.

    Gold is a hedge and an alternative to fiat currencies - doe snot get any more straightforward than that.

    And speaking as a technician, I could simply say, 'who cares why it is going up....it is'.

    But my macro thesis is what I would consider the 'reason' for gold to be trading higher.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 18:28

    1       0

    Amit - AUD/NZD is on my watch list to add and/or establaih new logs (if you are not long already).

    My thesis remains unchanged from July.

    I do not follow MXN or CNH so no insights....sorry

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 18:26

    0       0

    Thanks Steven V

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 18:26

    4       0

    Hi Linda - thanks for the comments/question.

    Correlations are always in flux - thus it id certainly possible for gold to rally if USD rallies too. that has not been the case always...but one can never tell.

    To me the case for being long gold is far more vast than simply looking at correlations.

  • LA

    Linda A.

    19 10 2016 17:03

    1       1

    Thank u- love your charts & commentaries. Your chart shows gld breaking to the upside but if the dollar strengthens wouldn't it go lower?

  • SV

    Steven V.

    19 10 2016 16:00

    1       0

    Looking forward to the upcoming videos! Keep up the great work!

  • AS

    Amit S.

    19 10 2016 15:29

    0       0

    Great insight Dave! I was wondering if are you still long AUD/NZD at current levels, I remember you mentioning in one of your previous videos. Also, is short USD/MXN and long USD/CNH a compelling trade for the next few weeks?

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    19 10 2016 15:14

    0       0

    What is the downside and how high do you see the price rise?

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    19 10 2016 15:12

    0       0

    Why is gold going up?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 10 2016 14:19

    3       0

    As noted in today's video - I/we are long a Nov GDX Call Spread....just issued this to clients.....

    Traders,

    We put on the GDX Bull Call Spread for $1.51, it is now trading at 2.22 - a +47% gain.

    Close 1/2 this position and let's see how the rest plays out...

  • BH

    Ben H.

    19 10 2016 14:16

    1       0

    Thanks Dave, I always enjoy your updates and the end of this one on positioning and portfolios has given me a lot to think about.
    Looking forward to the TA videos coming out.
    Cheers Ben

  • GA

    Giedrius A.

    19 10 2016 13:15

    0       0

    Fantastic video. Is always interesting to see from the point of view from traders perspective and see what compliments with your ideas and what is not.

  • WE

    William E.

    19 10 2016 12:30

    7       1

    Dave - Guess I am a groupie, but your presentations are great... However, totally away from trading, what is the meaning of the deer (Buck) on your desk? I noticed it last time and now I'm curious.

  • EF

    E F.

    19 10 2016 12:22

    2       0

    Great insight as usual, I particularly liked you giving a summary of the entire portfolio. Would you consider shorting bonds outside the US given they arguably have less of an upside should you be wrong? And does trading into such an unclear election affect your use of leverage and choice of stops? Thanks a lot