Opportunity Building in TBT

Featuring Dave Floyd

Dave Floyd presents his regular monthly update from Aspen Trading and after his June calls played out for a move lower in bonds and his long position in the S&P, Dave looks ahead to the trading action for the rest of July. Following the correction lower off the June 19 high in the S&P, Dave sees an opportunity for a move higher there and he’s also got some ideas for a new position in TBT, as well as currency trades in Aussie/Yen and Euro/NZ. Filmed on July 11, 2017.

Published on
13 July, 2017
Topic
Technical Analysis, Trading
Duration
15 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies, Equities
Rating
35

Comments

  • DF

    Dave F.

    4 9 2017 22:44

    0       0

    Matt S.....nope, not dead. Had an amazing time on Orcas Island for my birthday...wow. However, if you are referring to the 'free' email that Aspen sends out roughly every other week you should have received something by now

  • MS

    Matt S.

    25 7 2017 06:12

    0       0

    Dave, have you died? Last I heard you were going off for a 50th birthday celebration and I've not received one single email from Aspen ever since! What happened?

  • bd

    bryan d.

    23 7 2017 12:33

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    Also would going long TMV be a similar but more leveraged trade than TBT or are they different animals?
    Thanks Dave

  • bd

    bryan d.

    23 7 2017 12:29

    0       0

    Hi Dave
    In the recap you mention a further trade on TBT but didnt elaborate on it later. Could you asvise your thoughts on a entry/exit point please.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 7 2017 03:41

    0       0

    You are welcome Bob B.....

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 7 2017 03:40

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    Thanks Douglas B.....great to hear. Did you check out the 6 part Technical Analysis Series I did here at RVTV? Use the search to get the URL.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    19 7 2017 03:39

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    Hi Rory - it is not a 'time' related question, it is a matter of when ones thesis is proven wrong or your stop-loss is hit.

  • RR

    Rory R.

    19 7 2017 00:16

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    Regarding TBT: How long is too long to hold a short ETF? Thanks for your insight.

  • DB

    Douglas B.

    15 7 2017 15:23

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    Thanks Dave. New to technical analysis, o picking up as many tidbits as I can.

  • BB

    Bob B.

    14 7 2017 14:32

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    Dave,

    Thanks for your analysis!

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 7 2017 04:27

    1       0

    I will be out of town for the next few days so any questions after tonight (Thursday evening) will get addressed next Wednesday.

    Enjoy the weekend.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 7 2017 04:26

    1       0

    Mike W,

    Thanks for the question.

    The S&P's and AUD/JPT or XXX/JPY are typically considered 'risk on' plays. Not always of course as correlations are always in flux.

    In fact, S&P 500 vs AUD/JPY has not correlated very well in recent months - but will still get dragged higher if the S&P's move higher, which is what I forecast in the video and thus far it is working.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 7 2017 04:24

    1       0

    Hi Simon,

    Thanks for reaching out.

    We are long AUD/JPY and were long (not short as you noted) EUR/NZD but closed it based on the move below 1.5720

    No feel on AUD/NZD been basing here for months and has been tough to snag to the upside.

    I am watching AUD/USD too and will be advising clients accordingly.

    Take care,

    Dave

    • HM

      Hot M.

      16 7 2017 10:05

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      Hi Dave, is there any stock to be placed in what looks like a ascending triangle in AUD/USD from Jan 2016? I see GBP/USD and EURUSD also looking at potential breakouts higher beyond medium term resistance levels (1.30 on GBP). That argues for a lower low in DXY than would be expected for those believing in a continuing secular USD bull ove the future medium term.

  • ST

    Simon T.

    14 7 2017 02:06

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    Thanks Dave, great wrap. You have talked about LONG AUDJPY & SHORT EURNZD would you look at AUDNZD long as an extension of this trade or stick to the individual pairs and setup's ? Also really interested in the AUDUSD. Thanks

  • SC

    Sean C.

    13 7 2017 23:26

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    I was stopped out in the EUR/NZD as well, Dave. I'm not sure about a long as of now, but I do like the GBP/USD and GBP/NZD longs for two reasons: 1. GBP broke a corrective downtrend channel today and 2. NZD has an extreme long specs/short comm. After today's selling tail in NZD/USD, I'm inclined to be short at least short term especially going along with your DX oversold commentary. What are your thoughts?

  • MW

    Mike W.

    13 7 2017 21:01

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    Hi David
    Thanks for the update. I had no idea audjpy was tightly correlated to the S

  • DF

    Dave F.

    13 7 2017 20:51

    1       0

    Hi Daniel - thanks for the comments/questions.

    It really depends on what you are looking to accomplish....better chart reader, better macro understanding....? Lot's to consider so no way for me to answer without more specifics.

    I would tell you to avoid nearly ALL training/trader education programs. It's real simple, if they are so good, why aren't they publishing research or managing money with a public track record.

    I rest my case.

    Trading proficiency is a journey....get specific on what you are looking to do and I can possibly point you in a few directions.

  • DS

    Daniel S.

    13 7 2017 20:46

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    Hi David, great conversation and video. I have studied almost all of your work on RV. As a new trader, to get a better understanding of the FX markets, would you make a recommendation on any books or material. Maybe even a quality blog or reputable training program. All the best.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    13 7 2017 18:48

    0       0

    Thanks David S.....greatly appreciated

  • DS

    David S.

    13 7 2017 16:48

    2       0

    Thanks, Professionally done. I am not a trader, but enjoy your presentations. DLS

  • DF

    Dave F.

    13 7 2017 12:58

    8       0

    Good morning.

    A couple of updates:

    AUD/JPY and S&P's moving higher.....EUR/NZD however broke below 1.5720 yesterday thus invalidating the analysis I did in the video.

    • EL

      Elizabeth L.

      13 7 2017 13:57

      2       0

      Thank you for the update

    • MW

      Mike W.

      13 7 2017 21:11

      0       0

      Hi David

      Thanks for the update. I had no idea aud/jpy and s&p were so closely correlated - thank you.

      Do you use a resource to find these correlations or is it from years of experience in the market?

      Thank you