Technical Perspectives with Aspen Trading

Featuring Dave Floyd

Regular contributor Dave Floyd from Aspen Trading outlines his latest positioning from a technical and quantitative standpoint. In this edition, Dave looks at the S&P, after a nine-day negative run, as well as the dollar, interest rates and some commodity plays.

Published on
9 November, 2016
Topic
Technical Analysis, Trading
Duration
15 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit, Currencies
Rating
19

Comments

  • DF

    Dave F.

    28 12 2016 17:47

    0       0

    Hi Dylan - it is called an 'ending diagonal' - and in that EW pattern, Wave 4 can trade into Wave 1. Meanwhile we are nearly 200 points higher from that low

  • JC

    Joe C.

    13 12 2016 19:01

    1       0

    Dylan... I'm no Elliot Wave expert but I believe his setup is correct. Assuming you're talking about his S&P chart... that Wave 4 low was the failed down leg of the bear market that never materialized (and fooled everybody). Thus in retrospect you would consider the move up from that major February 2016 low to be the first wave (1) of a new bull move. We only know that after the fact.

  • DD

    Dylan D.

    6 12 2016 16:32

    1       0

    Just looking at this today... His Elliott Wave count is crap.. His Wave 4 low is below the high of Wave 1... What gives?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    3 12 2016 00:32

    0       0

    Thanks Annie - happy to help.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    3 12 2016 00:31

    0       0

    Thanks Sajad and Buck

  • DF

    Dave F.

    3 12 2016 00:31

    0       0

    Hi Jim....sorry for the delayed response.

    Yes it did hit 100.51 - buy signal? Yes and no. Depends on the context at the time prices cross a forecast 'key' level. I for one refrained from getting long USD - perhaps not the right call - but that is trading. It is not an exact science - just cause a level is broken does not give one the green light.

    I know that may seem evasive - but that is trading and only comes with years of screen time.

  • SC

    Sajad C.

    23 11 2016 23:22

    0       0

    Great watch.

  • bb

    buck b.

    20 11 2016 22:34

    1       0

    Like your style. No promises just risk vs. reward. Great stuff.

  • AH

    ANNIE H.

    20 11 2016 20:37

    2       0

    Wow. Watched for the first time today to see how your set-ups worked out from the day before the US elections. You were so right with everything (except gold, but who cares- I have been long since December 2015) It was eerie how accurate your set-ups and targets were. Almost sleep with the light on scary good. Thanks for your insight and expertise. And your humility.

  • UN

    Utkarsh N.

    19 11 2016 15:04

    1       0

    Hey Dave, really good calls here pre-election. You must have cleaned up! Just wondering if you would suggest anything to read on Elliot Waves/Technical analysis, or how you got started? Thanks - K.

  • JM

    Jim M.

    17 11 2016 00:36

    0       0

    Dave thanks for your videos. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Dollar Index touch 100.51 intraday yesterday and if so are you green-lighting this trade - do we have the signal? Thank you again!

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 11 2016 22:40

    1       0

    Lot's of set-ups since my video last week. 10-year yields have hit my 2.25% target - a pull-back seems likely. - offering up longs in TBT

    Copper, breaking higher, looking to buy a pull-back there.

    Plenty of set-ups too in FX land.....AUD/CAD, EUR/SEK, EUR/GBP and EUR/USD

    And yes....gold. Sigh. Stubborn bull here.

    Dave

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 11 2016 05:24

    1       0

    Hi Gurdeep - at this point I am not advising that clients do anything in NGD in terms of adding to the position.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    14 11 2016 05:23

    0       0

    Hi Pheerasut - I am not familiar with Thermal Coal - sorry about that

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    13 11 2016 20:18

    0       0

    Asked this on twitter, but you adding NGD at anytime soon? I gather its a positional trade

  • PK

    Pheerasut K.

    13 11 2016 08:55

    0       0

    Hello Dave,

    What is your opinion about Thermal Coal price ?
    Thanks ..

  • SB

    Sam B.

    12 11 2016 21:42

    2       0

    Hi Dave, interested on your thoughts on gold after the horrid week we've had. $1,200 looks a near certainty now, and momentum is firmly to the down side. Doesn't look like much support below, so if $1,200 falls, it seems likely we'll end up all the way back where we started the year?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 11 2016 17:39

    0       0

    My thoughts on USD/JPY can be seen here:

    http://www.aspentrading.com/post-election-trade-ideas-fx-stocks/

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 11 2016 17:38

    0       1

    Hi Michael M....good question. It is possible that coppers rise is complete - see this research piece I just posted - http://www.aspentrading.com/post-election-trade-ideas-fx-stocks/ - if correct, DXC can continue to move higher.

    But there is nothing preventing copper and DXC from moving higher together. Correlations are always in flux - let price action dictate what you should do

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 11 2016 17:36

    0       0

    Thanks Allison and Gabi

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 11 2016 17:36

    0       0

    Thanks John C

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 11 2016 17:35

    0       0

    Hi Ivan,

    Clearly we are in a 'risk on' environment and the trade remains up. Until further notice, I would not fight it.

    For months i has stated that the S&P's will move towards 2238-2386....I am a tactical bull though - not one of those dopey 'buy and hold' types

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 11 2016 17:33

    1       0

    Hi Jin - yes, I think bonds are toast - naturally there will be rallies here and there, but to me, the trend has changed.

    We got stopped out og GLD at $118 yesterday - a solid trade but disappointed at recent action in gold

  • DF

    Dave F.

    12 11 2016 17:25

    1       0

    Good morning from beautiful Bend Oregon.

    Here are my thoughts and current set-ups I am looking at in FX and stocks.....enjoy - feel free to hit me with questions and/or comments

    http://www.aspentrading.com/post-election-trade-ideas-fx-stocks/

  • CL

    Chewy L.

    12 11 2016 16:18

    0       0

    Hey Dave. Are you also of the mindset that long bonds have reached an inflection point and yields will most likely head higher? Is there a stop loss for your GLD position? Love your videos

  • IP

    Ivan P.

    12 11 2016 15:00

    0       0

    Excellent video, as always! Quick question: what is your take on the Rusell 2000 and the sharp move up of the past couple of days? Is it going to break all time highs?

  • JC

    John C.

    12 11 2016 13:20

    0       0

    good stuff. I really like these short trading videos as they aren't too long :)) and give the viewer interesting thematic trading ideas and a little bit of technical analysis. Thx.

  • MY

    Madjid Y.

    11 11 2016 21:56

    2       0

    And I believe we will see $40 on Oil before we move higher,
    thanks

  • MY

    Madjid Y.

    11 11 2016 21:52

    2       0

    Hi Dave,
    I assume you have closed your gold position today?
    thanks

  • aw

    allison w.

    11 11 2016 15:32

    0       0

    Great Just Great

  • GE

    GABI E.

    11 11 2016 11:26

    0       0

    Many Thanks!! it was useful as always. try to do it more often.

  • MM

    Michael M.

    10 11 2016 20:03

    1       0

    Great presentation. How do you square a reflationary trade in copper with a higher dollar?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    10 11 2016 15:12

    0       0

    Thanks TS

  • JT

    Jayne T.

    10 11 2016 13:27

    0       0

    David, would love to know your thoughts on the yen and yuan the next time you are on. Thanks!

  • IG

    Ivens G.

    10 11 2016 10:39

    1       0

    I guess he neailed the "market has already discounted the outcome of the election" part. I expected much more turmoil than we had yesterday.

  • SR

    Sean R.

    10 11 2016 05:04

    0       0

    Thanks for that! Great stuff. Interesting to see your interaction with Jason P. You both make valid points.

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    10 11 2016 03:08

    0       0

    Great Job - very brave and accurate! Well articulated for a complex subject.

  • JP

    Jason P.

    10 11 2016 00:24

    4       0

    Fair enough Dave. Makes more sense if you want to be able to set it and forget it. The biggest reason I don't like selling that teeny premium is if you do get a quick move close to your strike you have to wait out the decay on that formerly teeny option, or settle for a fraction of intrinsic in the present. Thanks for sharing. It is interesting to see how others value that premium reduction and weigh the trade-offs.

  • DF

    Dave F.

    10 11 2016 00:10

    6       0

    Hi Jason,

    You make a valid point. However, one of the reasons I use spreads is to offset the time decay in the event my forecast does not play out in a timely manner.

    Had I known about Monday's 1% gap higher and today's massive reversal, sure, calls made more sense.

    For me it is preference and risk management, nothing more. Plus I am not interested in making it overly complicated, i.e. selling common against my longs calls or vice versa. I like keeping things real simple, when I have to start playing whack-a-mole with positions, I get easily out of synch and lose my objectivity in terms of managing the trade.

    Always many ways to make a directional bet - the most important part is getting the directional call correct.

  • JP

    Jason P.

    9 11 2016 23:55

    4       0

    Dave, Your call spread... It's tough selling teeny legs for almost nothing like that. What is your thinking selling the 222 for $.28? Do you really see the premium reduction as worth it? To me the 5.5% premium reduction versus just long the $209s is not worth the flexibility you lose. With the naked long you could sell the 222s on a rally, short common against it without fear of getting run over, etc.

    Thanks for your views.

    Jason

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 11 2016 23:53

    2       0

    Hi Raghu....would of, could of, should of.....so easy in hindsight.

    On could have come up with compelling reasons to by JJC a few times in 2016.....and the chart never broke out.

    It is perfectly fine to WAIT for a confirmed move (break-out in this case) and buy the pull-back....a far higher probability approach IMO.

    I will be buying JJC because it will pull-back.

  • jb

    j b.

    9 11 2016 23:52

    2       0

    u guys need to publish this stuff earlier , would have been great to see this the day of , nice video 🙏🏻

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 11 2016 23:50

    0       0

    Larry - sounds like 4 pretty sharp guys to me ;)

  • jd

    john d.

    9 11 2016 23:22

    0       0

    Hi Dave; given the significant vol over the past 24hr and given that TA changes as new data is analysed/ situation changes have your viewed changed at all since this presentation despite its recency? Cheers John.

  • lb

    larry b.

    9 11 2016 23:06

    0       0

    i love your presentations. i also own gld and ngd like jesse and fleck.

  • RR

    Raghu R.

    9 11 2016 22:34

    1       1

    You should've bought JJC. Too bad there was no pull back for your entry. It shot straight up like a rocket ship. It sucks especially when we are right and miss entering the trade.

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    9 11 2016 21:07

    0       0

    Super, you really nailed it! Bullish on SP500 and Euro lower. I was positioned like that before the election and your video let me hold on to my position. I am up 2,5% with my hole port today! Thank you!!!

  • ns

    niall s.

    9 11 2016 21:03

    1       0

    make that : star of realvision

  • ns

    niall s.

    9 11 2016 21:02

    0       0

    David ,

    Love your presentations , you are a start or realvision . I got up at 30.00 am last night from my perch her in Spain and watch the election results and the SP futures fluctuate wildly . How to you account for that ( very probable ) outcome when setting stops on your S&P calls. Is it best to take off stops heading into a binary event ?

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 11 2016 20:06

    0       0

    Thanks Justin - greatly appreciated.

    It has been a roller coaster ride for sure in the last 18-hours

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 11 2016 20:05

    3       0

    Hi Hamed,

    Sorry my latest video did not meet your expectations. I would love to get some more insight on your thoughts as it is not clear to me what part of my analysis seems like doubling down.

    Take care,

    Dave

  • JM

    Justin M.

    9 11 2016 19:49

    1       0

    Impressive calls, Dave. Like most people here, I'm a big fan of your work. Thanks for sharing and congrats on your positions. Thanks.

  • HA

    Hamed A.

    9 11 2016 16:27

    2       6

    I have been a fan of Daves RV clips up until this one which seemed a bit more like doubling down on a roulette bet bc red hit 9x in a row. some technical analysis is so reactionary and thats always been my issue - in the past Dave extended beyond that simplicity - not this time

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 11 2016 15:47

    0       0

    Thanks Marc - greatly appreciate your comments

  • DF

    Dave F.

    9 11 2016 15:47

    16       1

    Good morning. I have to admit, when I saw the markets last night I was glad I had hedged my comments in terms of not knowing what 'might' happen post-election. As of now it looks like the market is taking the news in stride and the sun rose and the moon will rise later today.

    The challenges for the market remain, regardless of who was elected so we need to be vigilant.

  • MS

    Marc S.

    9 11 2016 15:32

    3       0

    Thanks, Dave, love your work. Looking forward to the TA series, there's much to learn from you and your process.