Trend Breakouts for 2017- Aspen Trading
Featuring Dave Floyd
As financial markets settle into the New Year, Dave Floyd runs through his expectations for trend action in the key asset classes. Uppermost in mind is whether the dollar will maintain its bullish track, with some question marks already over the US currency this year. Also up for discussion is the dichotomy in the S&P where the uptrend is intact, despite the high valuations and a re-emergence of gold’s rally from 2016.
Filmed on January 24, 2017.
- Published on
- 26 January, 2017
- Topic
- Trading, Technical Analysis
- Duration
- 18 minutes
- Asset class
- Commodities, Equities, Currencies
- Rating
- Sharing
Jonathan D.
27 2 2017 11:14
Sam S - seems that was the low of the correction. (your sale of NGD)
Olivier v.
1 2 2017 10:36
Eish, good that he specifically mentioned in the technical tutorials that investing/speculating is always a combination of technical, fundamental and quantitative analysis. Hope he didn't add to his position though.
Sam S.
31 1 2017 13:54
Question is: did Dave Floyd unwind his positions yesterday, especially after such a long bull - buy discussion all these months? Who can tell us if DEBT will sink NGD? How the hell can such huge production of hard assets lead to NGD failure unless very poor mgmt decisions to sign off on toxic debt? BBEP had millions in cash, billions in ground assets, yet the bankruptcy court in CA allowed them to reorganize at the destruction of the stock (MLP) holders. WTF is wrong with nation?
Dave F.
30 1 2017 23:49
Yep - NGD has been a disappointment for sure. Too early to know if it can recover.
Sam S.
30 1 2017 21:32
I'm gone as NGD tanked today-----wipe out. CEO leaving, cost structure debt---just like the MLP's in early 2016. Stuck like a pig.
CHRIS .
29 1 2017 19:19
with the past week S&P breaking above the trend line, still see a long position or more correction?
Tad B.
28 1 2017 21:29
Im not a trader and, usually, this stuff makes me fall asleep.
This guy is good though. I'm getting in to it.
Very concise and easily understandable.
Mr F. Thankyou.
Frank B.
28 1 2017 19:52
I never understood why there is a need for prediction of any move in the market. I learned, at least from experience, that I should not have any biases because my opinion doesn't matter.
Raitis K.
28 1 2017 13:48
Thanks for your insights Dave, Madjid, Christopher and Kash! Very valuable food for thought.
Raj R.
28 1 2017 04:40
Im short EEM primarily because I believe USD is going higher. With fed rising rates and dollar shortage in emerging markets it is hard to short the dollar. Not to mention the Chinese want a lower yuan
Dave F.
27 1 2017 20:49
Here is another take in markets in general and the current (I would say ongoing) challenge of 'price discovery'.
"...financial markets have been finding it very difficult to adjust to this new tone of combative leadership in international affairs; foreign exchange trading is often the sharpest point of the spear, with countless participants operating on different timelines and opinions, motivated to act in different directions … often for uneconomic purposes. In this maelstrom of trading, the guiding principle is that new information gets factored into prices of currencies likely affected by the news .. in some guestimate of net present valuation of its future effect – when the new information gets distributed randomly from the White House through twitter, often contradicting the official positions stated the day before, traders jump in and out of risk reactively. This is devastating for the macro process, whose proponents fancy themselves as good analysts of future price development … using pricing dislocations as opportunities to buy cheap and sell rich; when tweets become executive orders and campaign rhetoric is used as a guide for unilateral trade policy, FX becomes a rollercoaster and you better buckle up. This kind of volatility is better for brokers and traders than “business as usual”, so for purely selfish reasons I prefer it – but the effect that it has on macro sentiment is damaging and that can create outcomes that are even more unpredictable. Still … better than Fed-watching."
Dudley Hancox - Morgan Stanley
Dave F.
27 1 2017 19:09
Vadim - I assume you mean the S&P's? If so, it is likely just a function of a market that is under such scrutiny from a valuation standpoint that making 'quick' headway is real hard.
Remember, at current valuation levels, forward returns are measly.
I suggest this piece by @johnauthers in the Financial Times regarding valuations as a poor timing tool. Other insights too.
https://www.ft.com/content/12e7e928-d9a0-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e
vadim t.
27 1 2017 17:55
Dave, one more question. I'm watching on the US market yesterday and today (27.01) and it's literally dead, no movement, no volumes, nothing. And this is after major breakout two days ago, which supposed to be the beginning of the big movement. Any thoughts, explanations? Is it a factor for you besides charts analyzes or you just tend toignore such a stuff.
Dave F.
27 1 2017 16:52
Great comments/insight by Christopher and Kash.
Keep 'em coming folks - great way for robust dialog.
Minum C.
27 1 2017 16:41
Raitis, it's the real interest rate that matters. You can (and often to) have a rising nominal interest rate during a declining real interest rate environment. It happens when CPI moves faster than Federal Reserve's rate hikes. The interesting thing to watch is what happens to the yield curve when the Fed hikes again. Does it result in steepening, flattening, or parallel?
Christopher T.
27 1 2017 16:33
10yr vs Bunds spread is converging as rates in Europe rising faster than in the US. Sentiment is at extremes and Euro data keeps surprising to the upside.
Madjid Y.
27 1 2017 15:02
Raitis, it’s not the interest rates that are going to drive the show. It is the trump policy that already stipulate a weaker dollar, he could put pressure on the Fed to open a swaps line. One way to deal with US debt.
Add to that I heard on an RV interview that the Chinese and the Russians have been buying and supporting the euro for some reason or the other.
David, sorry I have thrown the towel when it comes to a strong dollar for the following:
Euro bottoming with a possible Head and Shoulders formation on the daily.
The last COT report indicate very high level of shorts EURUSD, who’s left to sell? 57% DXc1
The USD/MXN is starting to tell a different story.
I kind of agree with your technical picture and the fundamentals provided by intelligence 2 partners but the sentiment is changing and other countries may react to a raising dollar and trade barriers by dumping the USD.
By the way Michael Oliver’s interview on RV about Momentum had me do the legwork about the future of USD.
I believe we will see another wave up which I will use to load on gold and miners but the dollar long trade may be over. Good luck everyone.
Dave F.
27 1 2017 14:51
Hi Raitis - I cannot offer an explanation. It is simply a function of looking back at data when the Fed raises and then measuring the total return for DXC looking ahead 3, 6 and 12-months.
Nautilus Capital did the study - consult their research for details.
Raitis K.
27 1 2017 14:10
Can someone briefly explain why higher interest rate environment would be bearish for US dollar?
Dave F.
27 1 2017 12:56
Regarding the comments and questions on correlations. Correlations are always in flux and certainly not etched in stone.
Yes, i is possible to be bullish gold and DXC as well as gold and USD/JPY.
It does not mean I am right, but I am willing to take that chance
Miguel G.
27 1 2017 11:41
If your bullish the dollar how can you be bullish gold miners when there is a strong inverse correlation with gold and the dollar? Are you thinking gold and the dollar can rally together?
Nuno R.
27 1 2017 11:26
Hi Dave, i follow your work and i always enjoy listening to your views. Being myself a fundamentals guy, i struggle to see how NGD can go from under $4 to $10 to $11 purely on technicals, without looking at production profile, growth plan, balance sheet, etc.... but i respect your views and analysis. Thank you.
Guido R.
27 1 2017 11:24
ooops... apologies... wrong video
Guido R.
27 1 2017 11:24
Did my comment just get censored...?
vadim t.
27 1 2017 10:21
So Dave, you're long usdjpy and long gold via NGD? Correlation is about -1, how is it gonna play out?
Steffen F.
27 1 2017 09:45
Brilliant.
Sajad C.
27 1 2017 07:09
Thank you Dave, a great series. Useful to observe your mindset mid trade, your approach, your stop losses, your charts all educational. Look forward to the next episode.
Tshort63 ~.
27 1 2017 04:45
I have really enjoyed this series. It is helpful not only hearing a description of the but also the price points for action and the pre-thinking and consideration while waiting for a trend to be validated. Thanks!
Eric C.
27 1 2017 03:17
Was looking forward to this since the last episode!!
Dave F.
27 1 2017 03:15
Thanks Raghu.
Dave F.
27 1 2017 03:15
Hi Thomas - GLD has rallied 8.4% off the December lows. Am I concerned about a 2.5% correction from the recent swing high?
Nope.
Again, my position on gold is clear - I am not trading it. I am a long-term investor.
Hope that helps.
Raghu R.
27 1 2017 00:55
Thanks Dave,
You are spot on AUDUSD. It turned around right at 101. I also liked your calls on DX and TBT.
Thomas R.
27 1 2017 00:45
Your video was taped on the 24th. Today is the 26th. Are you concerned at all about the drop in Gold below 1200 these last 2 days, and if not, what is a reasonable correction to a presumed uptrend vs something to be concerned about. We basically hit a low in the mid 1120's, rebounded up to 1210-1220 range. Is a 50% re-tracment (1170 ish) the maximum you'd want to see?
Dave F.
26 1 2017 22:26
Traders - here is an update on the Dollar Index from today's (Jan 26th) price action. This is price action and insights that was not covered in this video update.
Enjoy - http://www.aspentrading.com/dollar-bears-ready-hibernate/