How Traders are Misreading Copper

Published on
August 15th, 2019
Duration
8 minutes

How Traders are Misreading Copper

Technical Trader ·
Featuring J.C. Parets

Published on: August 15th, 2019 • Duration: 8 minutes

J.C. Parets, CMT, of All Star Charts, is paying close attention to copper markets. In this episode, Parets explains what traders are missing when they say copper is in a head and shoulders topping formation. He also analyzes the huge disconnect between commercial and speculative futures positioning, and touches on a way to the play his copper thesis with equities. Filmed on August 14, 2019 in Sonoma, California.

Comments

Transcript

  • IC
    Ibrahim C.
    18 August 2019 @ 10:48
    I sense that he is trying to speak like Greg Weldon....
  • IC
    Ibrahim C.
    18 August 2019 @ 10:46
    I can take a long on Copper Sept. futures with a weekly stop at 253.15. However monthly chart gives me a sense that the long position can be ruined since more long term charts looks bearish. By the way once Peter Brand posted a newsletter in here (i.e. from his trading company) probably early 2018 on how the COT positioning can mislead you to wrong trades and he gave the best example of Copper when Copper was traded at 350 level for at least 2 to 3 quarters at that time. Good Luck.
  • AT
    Alun T.
    17 August 2019 @ 10:54
    If RP's dollar strength thesis bears out, EM is going to get spanked in the short term, and copper probably going nowhere. There is nothing in this video about the current macro situation playing out. I'm short copper, and have been since 2.64, and staying that way for the moment.
  • ks
    karamjit s.
    16 August 2019 @ 19:46
    Great Job JC
  • CB
    Connor B.
    16 August 2019 @ 17:08
    Dude slow down!
  • FK
    Firoze K.
    16 August 2019 @ 16:52
    Well if nothing else this has made me question my short copper trade! Thanks for a great idea.
  • BL
    Bart L.
    16 August 2019 @ 08:41
    I like the trade but will wait for confirmation not sure the timing is right just now, dollar still strong, cheers
  • JL
    James L.
    16 August 2019 @ 02:58
    JC is hands down the best technician I am aware of. Awesome trade thesis. If it works out I'll be buying a sub to allstarcharts.com with my winnings :)
  • Hv
    Hannah v.
    16 August 2019 @ 02:44
    What a great guy! I love his smiley energy. 😃
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    16 August 2019 @ 00:19
    Love the energy JC brings and love the fact that RV is bringing in more bullish views that challenge my bearish assumptions. Well done lads, keep it balanced. P.S: I would like to see a wrestling match between JC & Greg Weldon. Big event, pay per view style, with Mexican luchador masks, the whole nine yards.
  • DR
    David R.
    15 August 2019 @ 22:29
    Fantastic!! interestingly, the dollar chart looks like it'll collapse too once this extremely long period of range ends for the buck. Violently and down for USD. Even EURUSD looks likely to rise to 1.18-1.20 and possibly toward 1.30 eventually.
  • GR
    German R.
    15 August 2019 @ 22:02
    Great Job JC - skewed risk reward is all you can ask for
  • GT
    Gerard T.
    15 August 2019 @ 21:37
    Interesting post JC, I am long COPX and a few copper producers as I think base metals will follow gold and silver soon. For this we need to see the dollar sell off first so the dollar nominated debt in emerging markets will not press so much on these economies and allow more spending. And copper is also a good store of value as it can be stacked in warehouses. I would rather have my purchasing power in copper than Euro's or dollaars long term!
    • DR
      David R.
      15 August 2019 @ 22:32
      Rather own anything than dollars, with QE just weeks away. The US is hopelessly bankrupt and running insane out-of-control deficits as the US economy is collapsing while spending soars wrecklessly. The Fed is going to monetize it. USA = Weimer Germany and Zimbabwe. Watch and see. MMT on steroids etc.
  • JR
    Jay R.
    15 August 2019 @ 20:49
    Thanks for the post JC, I think your long term play on copper will be accurate once the commodities as a whole start the new uptrend. Copper I believe will sell off with the broader market initially before exploding higher based on inflation, etc. Gold and silver will lead this commodity as well as others IMO.
  • AI
    Alita I.
    15 August 2019 @ 20:01
    RSI like all derivative of a price can fool you, it may correct itself very briefly and continue rip down making RSI even deeper down. Its the money management that is most important.
  • ii
    ida i.
    15 August 2019 @ 18:51
    finally a non depressing video!!!!!
  • JW
    Joel W.
    15 August 2019 @ 17:46
    I’m with Matthew A: short copper now, looking for a reversal probably concurrent with the US dollar rolling over (whenever that happens). It seems between now and then like the dollar might surge much higher, which would make me regret not being more short of copper.
    • JW
      Joel W.
      15 August 2019 @ 17:48
      To clarify, I appreciate this trade idea. I just think there’s no way the US dollar rolls over in the very near term.
    • MA
      Matthew A.
      17 August 2019 @ 14:04
      It's working so far! Thanks for the support, I am a technician also observing fundamentals...isnt Chine a huge consumer of copper?,trade wars tariffs, slowing economies I am suprised hes looking for longs. Zero ego, time will tell.
  • MA
    Matthew A.
    15 August 2019 @ 16:21
    I short copper, not forever but as a swing trade that's my bet.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    15 August 2019 @ 14:46
    Love the contrarian nature of this trade idea. It would be perfect to see copper trade through JC's $2.55 floor for a day or two or even just intraday. A few longs would puke. Shorts would pile on, and the stage would be set for a rally.
    • DR
      David R.
      15 August 2019 @ 22:37
      Indeed. Gotta luv it.
  • bm
    brian m.
    15 August 2019 @ 11:49
    A salesman yelling is not a good look.
  • DH
    Dean H.
    15 August 2019 @ 11:20
    Nice contrarian view, but I'm gonna skip this trade idea. My technical indicators are giving the balance of probabilities to lower copper prices. Plus with some major macro markets leaning over the cliff at the moment, and economic data continuing to deteriorate, I'm not feeling that bullish on old Dr Copper right now. Thanks for playing devils advocate though. Good luck to you
  • SM
    Sebastian M.
    15 August 2019 @ 10:42
    I'm sure it's a cultural thing but if you're yelling like that, I'm not gonna believe a word of what you say
    • ii
      ida i.
      15 August 2019 @ 18:52
      he's just happy, we are not used to it anymore
    • MW
      Max W.
      16 August 2019 @ 17:02
      @ ida I think you are right. He just got back from his honeymoon!