Peter Brandt’s New Bull Case

Featuring Peter Brandt

Technical trader Peter Brandt, founder of Factor Trading LLC, explains why he remains bullish on U.S. equities — citing strong underlying breadth and positive momentum. He also explores what’s next for gold, bitcoin and U.S. Treasuries. Filmed on July 24, 2018 in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Published on
26 July, 2018
Topic
US Economy, Technical Analysis, Trading
Duration
14 minutes
Asset class
Equities
Rating
26

Comments

  • CA

    Craig A.

    30 7 2018 04:52

    0       0

    What tool/program are you using for those charts?

  • BT

    Brian T.

    28 7 2018 14:05

    0       0

    Peter is a wonderful market technician and obviously successful trader. I see all the comments that many classical patterns have poor prediction records. At some level, one needs to understand the driving factors, which Raoul and Julian do a fantastic job of providing. IMHO, the only way we get a blow off top is if (somehow) the market becomes convinced the Fed is going to pause or reverse QT. Absent that, I do not see the fuel. Leaders such as FB and NFLX breaking down is not a good sign. On balance, I see the outlook as negative for U.S. equities, although I greatly appreciate Peter's and RV's attempt to provide a balanced view. If this is the most bullish case out there, it makes me reasonably comfortable in my cautious bearish bias.

  • cr

    cc r.

    28 7 2018 06:57

    0       0

    I like this guy and love his technical calls.

  • AF

    Andrew F.

    27 7 2018 15:38

    0       0

    Thanks again for the insight Peter. Always worth a few chart.

  • LS

    Luis S.

    27 7 2018 14:08

    0       0

    Amazing how many H&S pattern have been shown. I need glasses!

  • JD

    Jonathan D.

    27 7 2018 09:54

    9       0

    A monthly like this from Mr Brandt would justify my subscription to RV.

  • TJ

    Tay J.

    26 7 2018 21:32

    0       0

    Thanks Peter! i'd be real interested to see how you would manage risk/select a stop-loss point on the bitcoin bullish stance ... or on the gold, equity and bond scenarios for that matter.
    ~

  • my

    markettaker y.

    26 7 2018 20:50

    0       0

    anyone know what software Brandt is using?

  • JE

    James E.

    26 7 2018 20:31

    3       0

    Always a fan of Peter, he keeps trading simple and of course, very profitable.

  • SH

    Steve H.

    26 7 2018 18:33

    9       0

    Personally, I agree that gold has more downside before taking off when QE returns. That said, the inverse H&S looks a lot more compelling in gold than it does in the DJI or USTs. A matter of perception, and more evidence - if evidence is needed - that TA is as much art as science.

    A couple of other respectful negatives:

    1. There's a fair amount of mathematical evidence available that H&S/inverse H&S offer no statistical edge - that is, they're wrong far more often than they're predictive. Adam Grimes, for example, has done a lot of rigorous and easily accessible work on the reliability of these and other 'classical' patterns.

    2. I'm not going to have another dig at the reliability of AD lines (cumulative or otherwise) in the context of today's market structure. Mr. Brandt has said he still believes in them, and his track record has to be respected. However, anybody in search of divergences should check out some of the other 'packaged' indicators on US index M and W charts (ex the RUT). Divergences might not be present in Mr. Brandt's favoured cumulative AD line, but they're most certainly getting very close on - for example - the RSI.

  • MS

    Mark S.

    26 7 2018 18:02

    0       0

    Thanks for this. I wish you would have done the US dollar as well.

  • JL

    Johnny L.

    26 7 2018 16:39

    10       0

    Look at the charts for 1987, 1929, 2000 and 2008 the day before the markets fell apart. They were all going straight up then collapsed. Did those charts show that. Data and warnings were sounded ahead of those drops that were ignored until the collapses happened. Charting shows what is going on but not what will happen. I hope Peter answers this.

  • RM

    R M.

    26 7 2018 16:04

    11       0

    One of the wonderful things about Peter is that he has a proven process, and is true to it. Please RV have him on as a regular!!

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    26 7 2018 16:02

    9       0

    While I have a lot of respect for the works of Peter Brandt or Dave Floyd, I admit to have strong difficulties constructing a strongly positive view for US EQ markets given 2Q peak GDP, peak corp EPS, peak share buybacks (if the number from Trimtabs are accurate, then that dwarfes any seller out there) but US corp leverage going up and collatoral quality of that leverage going down. I used to follow an Elliot wave chartist on gold. His previous track record was great in the sense of 2011 inflection point to the downside and 2015 inflection point to the upside. But since then he predicted many breakouts which never materialized (ie larger probability of going up than down). What I am saying is while I do appreciate the charts, there are other factors which will eventually determine the future direction of charts. And I do not consider these other factors to warrant a favorable risk/return profile for US equities, rather to the contrary (although echoing Julian Brigden's view of the possibility of a short term blow off top)

  • SW

    Scott W.

    26 7 2018 14:59

    2       0

    Love the conviction! "Here's what I'm seeing using my established methods... it might not comport with the company line..." But it's true to the underlying principles Peter follows and those don't care about current debt levels and valuations. Taking the world as it is rather than how you wish it to be can be mighty tough!

  • LN

    Lucy N.

    26 7 2018 14:39

    5       1

    Without, buy backs the market would be in a bear market

  • DB

    Douglas B.

    26 7 2018 13:35

    1       0

    Thank you Peter. You're TA is legendary.

  • AC

    Andrew C.

    26 7 2018 12:21

    1       0

    Thanks Peter, Great !
    I think the general sentiment agrees with your TA; the market has gone back to climbing a wall of worry.
    What is the volume on the gold chat, if you can please elaborate ?
    Cheers

  • MP

    Mirjam P.

    26 7 2018 11:54

    4       0

    While elaborating reasons for his neutral/bearish stance on gold, Peter mentions the inverted head and shoulders pattern should be considered less reliable because it lacks symmetry. Yet no mention within his bullish arguments for DJI, 30yr yields and BTCUSD that the inverted head and shoulders patterns in those three also lack said symmetry?

  • JV

    James V.

    26 7 2018 11:30

    2       0

    Always enjoy hearing Peter B's well informed technical forecasts on Real Vision. Thanks Peter! Keep up the good work.

  • PJ

    Peter J.

    26 7 2018 10:07

    6       0

    Cheers Peter, not much of an accomplished chartist myself, but love your work and video explanations. One question re the Gold chart. When you say you think the gold price could be in a prolonged choppy sideways move from here for 'some time', what is your 'prolonged' time horizon, are you seeing it in terms of days, weeks or months?