Peter Brandt s New Bull Case

Published on
July 26th, 2018
Duration
14 minutes

Peter Brandt s New Bull Case

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Peter Brandt

Published on: July 26th, 2018 • Duration: 14 minutes

Technical trader Peter Brandt, founder of Factor Trading LLC, explains why he remains bullish on U.S. equities — citing strong underlying breadth and positive momentum. He also explores what's next for gold, bitcoin and U.S. Treasuries. Filmed on July 24, 2018 in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Comments

  • CA
    Craig A.
    30 July 2018 @ 04:52
    What tool/program are you using for those charts?
  • BT
    Brian T.
    28 July 2018 @ 14:05
    Peter is a wonderful market technician and obviously successful trader. I see all the comments that many classical patterns have poor prediction records. At some level, one needs to understand the driving factors, which Raoul and Julian do a fantastic job of providing. IMHO, the only way we get a blow off top is if (somehow) the market becomes convinced the Fed is going to pause or reverse QT. Absent that, I do not see the fuel. Leaders such as FB and NFLX breaking down is not a good sign. On balance, I see the outlook as negative for U.S. equities, although I greatly appreciate Peter's and RV's attempt to provide a balanced view. If this is the most bullish case out there, it makes me reasonably comfortable in my cautious bearish bias.
    • DS
      David S.
      28 July 2018 @ 20:06
      I like Mr. Brandt also. His perspective has been formed by living with charts day to day, not just back testing a new theory. Fundamentals and charting are starting points for me. Then what is different this time? The decline in NFLX and FB are certainly different. I bought a little FB after its decline. FB may end up with a hybrid system – pay or free. I am probably early on FB, but there it is. DLS
  • KW
    K W.
    28 July 2018 @ 06:57
    I like this guy and love his technical calls.
  • AF
    Andrew F.
    27 July 2018 @ 15:38
    Thanks again for the insight Peter. Always worth a few chart.
  • LS
    Luis S.
    27 July 2018 @ 14:08
    Amazing how many H&S pattern have been shown. I need glasses!
  • JD
    Jonathan D.
    27 July 2018 @ 09:54
    A monthly like this from Mr Brandt would justify my subscription to RV.
  • TJ
    Tay J.
    26 July 2018 @ 21:32
    Thanks Peter! i'd be real interested to see how you would manage risk/select a stop-loss point on the bitcoin bullish stance ... or on the gold, equity and bond scenarios for that matter. ~
  • my
    markettaker y.
    26 July 2018 @ 20:50
    anyone know what software Brandt is using?
    • TB
      Teresa B.
      27 July 2018 @ 01:28
      Trade Navigator
  • JE
    James E.
    26 July 2018 @ 20:31
    Always a fan of Peter, he keeps trading simple and of course, very profitable.
  • SH
    Steve H.
    26 July 2018 @ 18:33
    Personally, I agree that gold has more downside before taking off when QE returns. That said, the inverse H&S looks a lot more compelling in gold than it does in the DJI or USTs. A matter of perception, and more evidence - if evidence is needed - that TA is as much art as science. A couple of other respectful negatives: 1. There's a fair amount of mathematical evidence available that H&S/inverse H&S offer no statistical edge - that is, they're wrong far more often than they're predictive. Adam Grimes, for example, has done a lot of rigorous and easily accessible work on the reliability of these and other 'classical' patterns. 2. I'm not going to have another dig at the reliability of AD lines (cumulative or otherwise) in the context of today's market structure. Mr. Brandt has said he still believes in them, and his track record has to be respected. However, anybody in search of divergences should check out some of the other 'packaged' indicators on US index M and W charts (ex the RUT). Divergences might not be present in Mr. Brandt's favoured cumulative AD line, but they're most certainly getting very close on - for example - the RSI.
  • MS
    Mark S.
    26 July 2018 @ 18:02
    Thanks for this. I wish you would have done the US dollar as well.
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    26 July 2018 @ 16:39
    Look at the charts for 1987, 1929, 2000 and 2008 the day before the markets fell apart. They were all going straight up then collapsed. Did those charts show that. Data and warnings were sounded ahead of those drops that were ignored until the collapses happened. Charting shows what is going on but not what will happen. I hope Peter answers this.
    • JH
      Jonathon H.
      29 July 2018 @ 10:39
      You need to look more closely at your charts. Peter will always happily state that charts are a tool for entering and exiting trades, not predicting the future. They do however allow you to identify opportunities and offer stop loss and profit points which ahs worked well for him for decades. Ask Raoul or Julian about the future...
  • RM
    R M.
    26 July 2018 @ 16:04
    One of the wonderful things about Peter is that he has a proven process, and is true to it. Please RV have him on as a regular!!
  • MB
    Matthias B.
    26 July 2018 @ 16:02
    While I have a lot of respect for the works of Peter Brandt or Dave Floyd, I admit to have strong difficulties constructing a strongly positive view for US EQ markets given 2Q peak GDP, peak corp EPS, peak share buybacks (if the number from Trimtabs are accurate, then that dwarfes any seller out there) but US corp leverage going up and collatoral quality of that leverage going down. I used to follow an Elliot wave chartist on gold. His previous track record was great in the sense of 2011 inflection point to the downside and 2015 inflection point to the upside. But since then he predicted many breakouts which never materialized (ie larger probability of going up than down). What I am saying is while I do appreciate the charts, there are other factors which will eventually determine the future direction of charts. And I do not consider these other factors to warrant a favorable risk/return profile for US equities, rather to the contrary (although echoing Julian Brigden's view of the possibility of a short term blow off top)
  • SW
    Scott W.
    26 July 2018 @ 14:59
    Love the conviction! "Here's what I'm seeing using my established methods... it might not comport with the company line..." But it's true to the underlying principles Peter follows and those don't care about current debt levels and valuations. Taking the world as it is rather than how you wish it to be can be mighty tough!
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    26 July 2018 @ 14:39
    Without, buy backs the market would be in a bear market
    • AC
      Andrew C.
      30 July 2018 @ 05:42
      without gravity, we would all be flying off into space.....
  • DB
    Douglas B.
    26 July 2018 @ 13:35
    Thank you Peter. You're TA is legendary.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    26 July 2018 @ 12:21
    Thanks Peter, Great ! I think the general sentiment agrees with your TA; the market has gone back to climbing a wall of worry. What is the volume on the gold chat, if you can please elaborate ? Cheers
    • TB
      Teresa B.
      27 July 2018 @ 01:42
      It's open interest on gold futures
  • MP
    Mirjam P.
    26 July 2018 @ 11:54
    While elaborating reasons for his neutral/bearish stance on gold, Peter mentions the inverted head and shoulders pattern should be considered less reliable because it lacks symmetry. Yet no mention within his bullish arguments for DJI, 30yr yields and BTCUSD that the inverted head and shoulders patterns in those three also lack said symmetry?
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      26 July 2018 @ 13:34
      Are you speaking of symmetry in duration or form?
    • MP
      Mirjam P.
      26 July 2018 @ 14:20
      Douglas, the symmetry criterion mentioned in the video requires the extreme of the head to occur at halftime of the whole pattern.
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      26 July 2018 @ 17:07
      Thank you for the clarification.
  • JV
    James V.
    26 July 2018 @ 11:30
    Always enjoy hearing Peter B's well informed technical forecasts on Real Vision. Thanks Peter! Keep up the good work.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    26 July 2018 @ 10:07
    Cheers Peter, not much of an accomplished chartist myself, but love your work and video explanations. One question re the Gold chart. When you say you think the gold price could be in a prolonged choppy sideways move from here for 'some time', what is your 'prolonged' time horizon, are you seeing it in terms of days, weeks or months?