Peter Brandt’s View Ahead

Published on
15 November, 2018
Topic
Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, FX
Duration
16 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities

Peter Brandt’s View Ahead

Featuring Peter Brandt

Peter Brandt of Factor Trading is back and joins Real Vision to highlight the most important charts he’s looking at right now. He reviews the technical setup and price targets for several different markets, including U.S. bonds, S&P 500, gold and bitcoin. Filmed on November 13, 2018 in Tucson, Arizona.

Published on
15 November, 2018
Topic
Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin, FX
Duration
16 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit, Equities
Rating
46
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Comments

  • MC

    Matthew C.

    27 11 2018 14:58

    0       0

    Nailed it on $BTC

  • SB

    Stewart B.

    25 11 2018 13:44

    0       0

    Great interview. My only caution is accepting that 'the ECB et al can't maintain NIRP forever'. It may be true but NIRP may continue much longer than we expect, possibly for as long as the Eurozone itself continues to exist.

  • BB

    Bryan B.

    17 11 2018 16:18

    0       0

    Here’s a great interview of Peter Brandt https://overcast.fm/+ECBg7kLjk

  • YB

    Yuriy B.

    17 11 2018 16:03

    3       0

    Love Peter Brandt! I know absolutely nothing about technical analysis. So I crave insight from experts in this space to re-assess ideas I've developed through fundamentals. Please keep bringing Peter aboard!!!

  • NT

    NGUYEN T.

    17 11 2018 09:57

    0       0

    Can someone explain why using MA140 instead of MA200?

  • AA

    Aymman A.

    16 11 2018 16:50

    13       0

    Please keep him a regular at Real Vision. I don’t agree with all his arguments but I need clear concise presentations by people with a different viewpoint. Peter Brandt is one of the all time greats.

  • MB

    Matthias B.

    16 11 2018 13:09

    2       0

    I always like his concise reasoning even if they are at odds with my thinking. But a strong rally of USD/CHF is very hard to believe. could it rally to 1.10? sure, given the tension in the offshore dollar market but on a fundamental 10y forecast, I would bet on continuous decline of this currency pair. The US has too many structural issues at home and the magnitude of the $ status as reserve currency will decline more and more going forward.

  • CF

    Cause F.

    16 11 2018 06:04

    4       0

    The view on 30-yr is the most surprising, given what's happening to inflation driven by commodities, especially oil

  • JQ

    JACK Q.

    16 11 2018 03:33

    0       0

    EURIBOR - i like that, there's a lot of institutional money playing that as well

  • JM

    Jeff M.

    15 11 2018 23:58

    2       0

    When people speak of market breadth it seems that they are all looking at different charts. I've seen people say "breadth is amazing" and "breadth is horrible" within a few days of each other. What are they looking at? I've been using ticker ADV on tradingview.com, and it looks to me like breadth is, indeed, bad. Yet this chart that Peter pulls up does look good. I can't even replicate it though because when I type in "$NYAD" on stockcharts.com, I just get a horrendous squiggle up and down that is totally useless. All the advance decline ratios, lines, etc on tradingview.com and stockcharts.com are up one day, down the next, no continuity to it and no useful patterns.

  • LJ

    Lucille J.

    15 11 2018 22:06

    1       0

    I am confused 4.50 bond rate and bull market in stock NO WAY

  • LJ

    Lucille J.

    15 11 2018 21:58

    1       0

    STRONG BREATH IS DUE TO BUYBACKS

  • AM

    Artur M.

    15 11 2018 21:37

    1       0

    Thanks Peter, Always looking forward to your content. And don't let others mange your twitter account :-)

  • DS

    David S.

    15 11 2018 19:47

    3       0

    I am probably missing something, but can US 30-year bonds yields go to 4.5-5% and the S&P 500 head higher in a debt super cycle? I guess the advance/decline line will markedly change before interest rates get anywhere near "normal" levels. DLS

  • DS

    David S.

    15 11 2018 19:34

    0       0

    A pleasure as always. The negative yield of the Swiss National Bank is keeping the Swiss franc (CHF) in line with its trading partners, but a nice side game is the number of CHFs flowing into the SNB from the negative rates. The SNB is not like the US Fed as the Wikipedia ownership shows the SNB is owned as follows: Swiss cantons (45%), the banks of the cantons (15%), and the remainder in the possession of private individuals. In 2018 the SNB had stock investments of 153 billion CHF and over 30 CHF billion in gold. DLS
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_National_Bank#Investments

  • DB

    David B.

    15 11 2018 15:14

    8       1

    Peter's understanding of trading technicals is tough to match and I particularly find his insights useful when they don't align with my views / positions. Taking a more critical look at how I came to that view helps me stay sharp and avoid complacency. A couple of questions I would have asked Peter. For the S&P 500, to what extent do you consider how other global markets are performing? As we know, the S&P 500 has really been alone in its relative strength. Is more likely that breadth will continue to worsen in the context that global markets are much weaker already? With regards to bond, similar to Gundlach, he uses a multi-decade channel line as confirmation that the head-and-shoulders pattern has breached a significant level leading to his call for higher yields. However, you can redraw that channel line prior to 2006 and that line broke in 2006/07. You could then redraw the line and it would have broken in 2010/2011. All were false breakouts. So my question would be, "is there a level on bonds that would change your view and indicate that this was yet another false breakout?" Thanks for sharing your insights!!

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    15 11 2018 12:42

    1       0

    Brilliant synopsis from Peter as always and most timely! Thank you.

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    15 11 2018 12:22

    28       1

    Using Advance declines lines is yesterday's game unfortunately.
    Why?
    Because passive buying skews the NUMBER of shares advancing.

    Rather look at the number of S&P500 companies trading below their 50 and 200 day moving averages and the number already down 20% from 52w highs = VERY POOR BREADTH.

  • GR

    George R.

    15 11 2018 12:14

    6       0

    Why have you taken NYAD breadth in 2007-2009 and then compared it to S&P breadth in the present day? Apples and apples surely?