Short-Term Oil Opportunity

Published on
November 23rd, 2018
Duration
12 minutes

Short-Term Oil Opportunity

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Bob Iaccino

Published on: November 23rd, 2018 • Duration: 12 minutes

Bob Iaccino of Path Trading Partners walks us through the recent price action in oil and reviews the best way to play the trend. He highlights key charts, specific technical indicators and fundamental catalysts for this short-term trade. Filmed on November 20, 2018 in Chicago.

Comments

  • LE
    Loui E.
    17 January 2019 @ 04:30
    Thank you again for the trade tip Michel! Sorry for the late response. I did some research online and decided to order your C-D-P wine directly from SAQ online. You should get it soon. Thank you!
    • LE
      Loui E.
      23 January 2019 @ 04:33
      https://www.canadapost.ca/cpotools/apps/track/personal/findByTrackNumber?trackingNumber=4550935002098732&LOCALE=en Tracking# for your wine :)
  • DR
    David R.
    27 November 2018 @ 07:54
    Really good. Please keep coming back. The detail and analysis including charts blows away some of the other analysts and value added, at least for real traders IMHO. Thx.
  • JM
    Jan M.
    25 November 2018 @ 18:11
    Very bad bla-bla-bla
    • DR
      David R.
      27 November 2018 @ 07:51
      Totally disagree ...... this presents some technical analysis/charts to at least substantiate his position ..... In contrast, the OTHER oil piece posted by another contributor yesterday is literally "bla bla bla" with zero technical TA/charts and just "I think" opinions.
  • AA
    ANUSHKA A.
    24 November 2018 @ 08:38
    considering that geo political uncertainties with Iran, continuous reduction in Venezuela are not causing an increase in price, and already highlights of global economic slow downs expected in coming 6 to 18 months due to demographics globally with an aging population + Raoul's identification of the retirement bubble popping, it seems Oil prices are forecasting the story ahead of time... i think on such an expected downtrend, going long for the short term might be a high risk move
  • RK
    Robert K.
    24 November 2018 @ 00:53
    We've puked today to 50 level (7% lower). It seems to me Trump managed to use the Khashoggi case to work on MBS and make this happen. I'd jump on this on the long side only after see a proper bottoming process. When I last traded this it was 2017 and CL was in it's 40s. Would not be surprised if we revisit some levels much lower. Too many factors aligned against oil right now: 1. stronger dollar, 2.US political pressure, 3.markets are turning down 4. Saudis like to take market share .
    • MS
      Michel S.
      24 November 2018 @ 02:43
      Yes you are right, DOW down oil follow. On the bull side winter season is about to start and it's a 2mbbd more demand in the US only. Cold weather is forecast for this winter ad to that some kind of solar cycle making it cold weather. My view is price should stabilize max by December.
  • MS
    Michel S.
    23 November 2018 @ 21:15
    Here is a golden opportunity : Canadian oil ETF CCX (Canadian Crude index) trading today @ $4.69. Canadian WCS is selling for $12.63 a barrel,, yes a barrel. But the Canadian light oil as been hit to by discount, never happen before.. Trudeau policies when elected destroy the oil patch at a even worst level then his father did in the 80.. It's all political motivated as oil as a bad rep. So the price are kill but it won't last for ever. Remove $15 on the crazy discount of $40 and CCX is over $9. Note that around may the Asphalt season begin and WCS bitumen gain for that season so if $9 is not reach in December it should be around that time. Call from RV subscriber: Buy and hold for a target $9-$10 or hold until it reach +$20 in a 3-4 years target. If you ever do the trade and make $ send me a bottle of Chateau neuf du Pape wine ;)..
    • SL
      Steve L.
      24 November 2018 @ 00:40
      I like this over the WTI trade. How low does WCS go? Are integers in play here?
    • MS
      Michel S.
      24 November 2018 @ 02:34
      WCS sell around $13 while the cost is roughly $25.. One of the reason producers keep on pumping is they hedge % of the production at a profit price when the price was higher, also it's a lot's to consider technicaly to stop and restart rigs operation.. CCX today is at all time low,, When WTI was $26 CCX was in the $5. CCX not only include WCS but also light oil and liquid and it is the discount on light oil that bring CCX at this new low. Can it go lower of course,, but evidently price won't stay at 50% of cost,, suffice one producers bankrup, or they rules the air barrel game (Having real storage capacity empty and reserve space in the pipeline to create a bottleneck that lower the price. US located refiners like BP make record earning last quarter.).. Note also one can wait a up trend and that very smart, but discount can be ajust in one day making it $45 today and $35 the next day, the average is $15 btw. Safest is to wait WTI find the bottom and up trend then buy CCX (on the TSX). I dont see the need of stop loss, it's a waiting trade. Don't forget the Chateau neuf du Pape! ;)
    • DR
      David R.
      26 November 2018 @ 11:03
      Trudeau is going to be re-elected soon with another majority gov't. He is grossly incompetent. Stay away from any Cdn investments. Even the Cdn gov't and its own pensions steer clear of Cdn investment to the tune of 90% now as they know things are so bad there. Canada cannot even refine its own crude nor even ship little of it except via USA, who takes full advantage of this situation, thus the very low "take it or leave it" price. Until Canada fixes that, which seems politically unlikely(?), Cdn prices could continue to suffer.
    • DR
      David R.
      27 November 2018 @ 07:56
      Good suggestion. Hope you get your wine!
    • MS
      Michel S.
      27 November 2018 @ 15:38
      Thanks,, my simplify calculation forecast price for CCX Feb Mars is $8.00 Here is why: If then WTI $60 - WCS discount $20 = $40 convert in CCX is $7.27 add premium and you are around $8 When hit $75 WTI and $15 discount is +$11.00 I beleive we will see $100 in 3-4 years making a 4 bagger at $16.36 Today CCX is $4,15 down 4% while WTI up 1%,, now it's not the time for a C-d-P wine yet. My first target is Feb Mars.
    • LE
      Loui E.
      28 November 2018 @ 06:10
      Hi Michel, CCX dropped under $4 today. Is it a good time to get in now that the WTI has bounced back a bit? Thank you!
    • MS
      Michel S.
      28 November 2018 @ 08:53
      I personaly add up @ 3.70. You can wait that WTI consolidate over $55. Since monday lot's of seeling pressure.
    • LE
      Loui E.
      29 November 2018 @ 05:14
      Thank you Michel. I will remember the C-d-P wine!
    • MS
      Michel S.
      3 December 2018 @ 23:45
      3 December, we whent to $3,70 low, now $5,60. It's possible to get to $7,00 at the end of the month
    • LE
      Loui E.
      5 December 2018 @ 05:41
      There are many different type of C-D-P wine. Which one is good? http://www.bcliquorstores.com/product-catalogue?search=chateauneuf
    • MS
      Michel S.
      22 December 2018 @ 22:04
      I like that one ! http://www.bcliquorstores.com/product/311530 If you made money on the trade here my office address: Michel Simard 9160 Boul Leduc, Brossard, Québec, Canada J4Y0E3
    • LE
      Loui E.
      10 January 2019 @ 01:52
      I will mail it to you soon! Thank you very much!
    • MS
      Michel S.
      11 January 2019 @ 17:44
      Eriksson L: I sold all 35,000 shares today @+- $7,04 The idea is the refineries will close for maintenance around end of January. My goal is to buy back before May in the range of $6.00,, will see not impossible it won't retract.. $8-$9 is still the target for the Q2 zone
  • KL
    Ken L.
    23 November 2018 @ 20:48
    Would be nice to hear what Bob has to say after today's price action.
  • IO
    Igor O.
    23 November 2018 @ 20:17
    It sliced through 51. Would be nice to be able to get an update from author in comment section. With fresh chart even better.
  • RH
    Rick H.
    23 November 2018 @ 19:13
    Love the detail and explanation!
  • TB
    Tim B.
    23 November 2018 @ 16:42
    Looking forward to another piece in the near future.
  • CM
    Carlos M.
    23 November 2018 @ 10:58
    even though the trade is clearly not going to work now. it was still good insighton technical analysis. and I do agree with the fundamentals he mentioned.