“The Biggest Trade of the Century”

Published on
July 25th, 2019
Duration
16 minutes

“The Biggest Trade of the Century”

Technical Trader ·
Featuring Michael Oliver

Published on: July 25th, 2019 • Duration: 16 minutes

Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis examines markets using an unorthodox style of technical analysis whereby price is secondary to momentum. In this episode, Oliver builds a case for his methodology using historical examples, and explains why the current data is pointing towards an imminent breakdown in the U.S. stock market. Filmed on July 18, 2019 in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Comments

Transcript

  • CD
    Christopher D.
    19 August 2019 @ 00:42
    So you are saying there is bearish divergence - which needs the RSI on a monthly candle to clearly see. Am I missing something? Your analysis seems to be much more complicated when a simpler approach logically says exactly the same?
  • WW
    William W.
    18 August 2019 @ 20:37
    Good Gawd...that was certainly 15 minutes well spent!
  • IJ
    Ilan J.
    16 August 2019 @ 21:28
    What is the current support level?
  • OC
    Otto C.
    15 August 2019 @ 15:24
    Awesome presentation!!! This is why I really like Real Vision. Not opinions but facts!!!
  • LA
    Linda A.
    6 August 2019 @ 17:00
    Excellent presentation. I think he is right! Thank u Michael Oliver!
  • RH
    Rob H.
    2 August 2019 @ 21:39
    Realvision needs the add a tab next to the transcript or for the charts in the videos. That would be a great upgrade.
  • BR
    Byron R.
    2 August 2019 @ 03:26
    Please include the charts in the transcript!!!!
  • as
    andrew s.
    27 July 2019 @ 13:27
    So you would have gone all in short 2011, 2016 and end 2018
    • WK
      William K.
      28 July 2019 @ 03:09
      Transcript clearly outlines the deteriorating momentum rules that did not exist in those periods
    • OC
      Otto C.
      15 August 2019 @ 15:23
      This is 2019, not 2011 or 2016 which were early and mid cycles respectively
  • AK
    Anthony K.
    26 July 2019 @ 22:44
    Great work as always Michael. Some posters here are looking at this as a "sky is falling" message which they are missing the point completely. I think its more of a "if/as this happens pay attention" message. As they say, Nothing matters til it does and by then, its too late. Thank you for the awareness.
    • JS
      Johannes S.
      6 August 2019 @ 01:43
      Now after two days of sell-offs, the S&P is down half way to his mark of 2650 for August. His thesis could get real very fast. I’m holding my breath, along with increased positions of GDN, GDX, GDLI and BTC :) It’s like watching a fortuneteller-predicted car crash in slow motion, while hoping he’s wrong and all goes well.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    26 July 2019 @ 19:09
    the guy was bearish in 2015, 16, 17 and 18!
  • BB
    Bhanu B.
    26 July 2019 @ 18:23
    I wonder there have been any false signals in the last century? Would be useful to see if any noticeable differences between those times and the positives. Also the 20s and 80s examples had the non-confirming downtrend begin after the 3rd 0% touch, present time chart shows the 3rd touch started after the momentum downtrend began - maybe its irrelevant, or could that mean that we have momentum will take much longer before price breaks down.
    • SC
      Sau C.
      26 July 2019 @ 19:17
      I've been a MS sub for the past few years. He does interesting work and has made some stellar calls, particularly in Natural Gas and to a lesser degree gold. He's been short or stalking a short over the past few years so outside of few blips during late 2018 and early 2018, he's been wrong. I like the idea of divergences in momentum as potentially a leading indicator and it's amazing when it works but there are numerous false positives that have you leaning short or watching on the sidelines when in reality it was another BTFD opportunity.
  • SM
    Sean M.
    26 July 2019 @ 15:56
    His work is interesting for sure but all one needs to do is look at a weekly RSI of SPX to see that momentum has not been confirming price. It may be an important data point but I wouldn’t trade on it. Also, “conventional” TA would obviously take notice of a move down to 2631 so I am missing the value of this follow a derivative of price rather than price approach. Just my 2 cents.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    26 July 2019 @ 12:08
    I could never really decide whether technical analysis added value or not until I heard Michael present on Real Vision a couple of years ago. I became a subscriber of MSA then, and have found Michael's analysis invaluable ever since.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    26 July 2019 @ 01:25
    Badass AF, loved it.
  • TM
    Todd M.
    26 July 2019 @ 00:34
    Just quirky bear porn really. Says if we go to 2631 we are going down much more. Not exactly an insightful commentary. Just another way to draw some lines. That said, I appreciate the content, the piece and the sincerity of Mr. Oliver.
    • JL
      James L.
      26 July 2019 @ 07:33
      agreed
    • WM
      Will M.
      26 July 2019 @ 12:49
      Todd, the 2631 and rising number looks pretty insightful to me. This 15 min view is further explained on his site. MSA analysis is very interesting and largely supported by the price evidence. Take a deeper look.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      26 July 2019 @ 16:41
      Todd - Mr. Oliver is giving you the brief version -- this is not a full explanation of their methods. I am sure there is a good deal more to this. I agree that some of the historical trends didn't fully line up at first glance, but these guys are deeply analytical and data-driven. It is worth paying attention to what Mr. Oliver says, at least to give it the attention it deserves. A fuller explanation is needed - so agree with you there.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    25 July 2019 @ 22:01
    Excuse my French ladies and gents...but holy f’ing sh*t. While there are many variables at play, the simplicity and elegance of this method is striking, and the historical comparisons, revealing. So, 3-month puts anyone?! ;-) Cheers, Jesse.
  • CS
    Charles S.
    25 July 2019 @ 20:20
    Impressive and makes sense. Unfortunately no mention of false positive frequency, so we don't know how the method really performs overall. Also, there are numerous TA approaches that work well on long-term charts, esp those focused on market internals (eg recent RV interview w/ Milton Berg) and most TA techniques perform better with long-term charts. How does Oliver's approach compare to other long term approaches, e.g. numerous effective interpretations of the McClellan Oscillator ? How does it perform in shorter terms, not necessarily as short as intra-day ? Perhaps Oliver's site has info about this, will see.
  • jd
    john d.
    25 July 2019 @ 19:22
    As per other viewers below, I would like to recommend Michael's work. I subscribe to a number of tools for my investing toolkit (macro, sector / company specific and TA). Michael's work has been very good in picking the turn first in the gold market last year and more recently silver. He has added significant value to my portfolio and, whilst his full package subscription is not "cheap", it is certainly "value for money". His recent calls in Au and Ag have more than paid for a Century of subscriptions for me.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    25 July 2019 @ 19:04
    Great piece Michael. Sad thing is though...most folks under 40 won't remember '87. Down 20% in a day so what's that today? 600 S&P points? 5,000+ Dow Points? Yikes!!! This is why B. is 100% in in gold miners...for now....
    • WM
      Will M.
      26 July 2019 @ 12:47
      I would have said most folks under 50 Bryan..........
  • RA
    Robert A.
    25 July 2019 @ 18:21
    After becoming acquainted with Michael’s work on RV I subscribed to his Gold & Silver service and boy am I glad I did! I have had a fairly full Gold & Silver position mainly through the Miners for several years as a result of following Bill Fleckenstein’s work (in fact I became a very early RV partner through Bill’s recommendation and a breakfast meeting with Grant Williams). Michael’s G & S service provided much needed emotional support over the last “choppy” year of trading that allowed me to remain in my positions and allowed me to add a bit more @ a nice turning point. Michael’s work is quite different, but he is very diligent about keeping his clients updated and once you become more familiar with his methodology it provides another important balancing tool in your toolbox. Best money (other than RV) I ever spent.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    25 July 2019 @ 18:00
    MSA uses a time horizon that most would consider an investment time horizon. I recommend their service, but don't expect day trades.
  • JS
    Johannes S.
    25 July 2019 @ 17:08
    The bleakest bear call I’ve seen so far. This is “run for the hills” stuff. Anyone has a good counter argument? And if you take positions off the table, where are you hiding your cash while waiting?
    • MC
      Minum C.
      25 July 2019 @ 17:57
      MSA likes gold.
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      25 July 2019 @ 18:57
      G-O-L-D
    • RR
      Ryan R.
      25 July 2019 @ 23:40
      Gold, silver, solid debt free miners, Bitcoin and a select few others in the blockchain space and lastly, cash.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    25 July 2019 @ 15:25
    Michael, fantastic description of your work! Really enjoyed it. I have been thinking about taking a sub to your precious metals report - any chance of a discount for RV members? Many thanks, Rick
    • CB
      Chris B.
      25 July 2019 @ 18:49
      Check this out for a discount: https://www.olivermsa.com/kwngsm.html
    • DM
      Doug M.
      25 July 2019 @ 22:17
      I pay full price and it is worth every penny.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      26 July 2019 @ 14:25
      Chris, thanks for the King World News sub discount - I just signed up for a year!
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      29 July 2019 @ 23:32
      I just subbed to the full service too. Have been listening to Michael on Jay Taylor on YT for a long while. The reports look awesome on first glance. Looking forward to this. Thanks for the discount link Chris. :)
  • RM
    R M.
    25 July 2019 @ 14:30
    I discovered Mike's work on RV a while back, and after looking over some free samples, became a sub. His work is unique, fascinating, and highly valuable. For instance, he offered 3 separate and layered buy signals on gold well before the price guys noticed gold. Being a new sub, I was skeptical (this was before everybody was talking about it) but I layered in the trade 1/3 at a time. Obviously, a great call on Mike's part. On the sell side, his reports give you triggers that if you close below, you have a sell signal. For instance, he issued a sell on the S&P ahead of the December 20% drawdown. Got me out before everybody hit the exit. To answer Glenn's question below, the current sell signals on the S&P haven't been hit yet, and if you get his reports there are several layered calls down to the critical 2631 number he sites in this report, so you can layer your way out.
    • GG
      Glenn G.
      25 July 2019 @ 17:51
      Thank you RM.
    • WM
      Will M.
      25 July 2019 @ 20:09
      I am a subscriber too for a year now. MSA seems to be about 90% on the money so far, and actually better score than Macro Subscribers so far....
  • GG
    Glenn G.
    25 July 2019 @ 12:53
    What’s the trade? Short S&P? Potential widowmaker?
    • CN
      Chase N.
      7 August 2019 @ 22:52
      Show me your positions and I will follow.
  • V!
    Volatimothy !.
    25 July 2019 @ 12:38
    I've been waiting to see Mike back for a while now. Last time was right before the February 18 vol explosion. Thank you very much for this video.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    25 July 2019 @ 12:08
    Dismiss this advice at your own peril.....MSA lives for this moment! Thank you Michael.
  • JV
    James V.
    25 July 2019 @ 11:30
    Awesome presentation! Crystal clear. Thank you Mike.
  • PD
    Peter D.
    25 July 2019 @ 09:52
    Gutsy call. Charts makes sense too. Still, it's hard to tell whether these technical guys are witch doctors or geniuses. In this case, we will know soon enough.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    25 July 2019 @ 09:22
    Great explanation, very simple and easy to understand.
  • CL
    Charles L.
    25 July 2019 @ 08:49
    Beautifully explained. Thanks for sharing
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    25 July 2019 @ 07:55
    Interesting analysis! Thank you 👍
    • tr
      tom r.
      25 July 2019 @ 22:27
      Had the charts been in focus so you could actually read them easily, this would have been VERY worthwhile. Why your photographer can't seem to keep things in focus should be a real concern for RV. This is constructive criticism and can only hope your resolve this issue in the future as you do such a wonderful job overall.
    • AJ
      Andy J.
      26 July 2019 @ 14:52
      Tom R... what you might be seeing in "losing focus" is your bandwidth speed dropping/the video buffering. You'll find that the video resolution is reduced, sometimes in the midst of playing, based on your connection speed. If there is a chart you're really interested in, pause and give it a couple seconds to buffer and you should be able to see it better.