The Shattering of the Market Regime?

Featuring David Meneret & Dean Curnutt

Are we starting to see a huge shift in the market regime? And where do we go from here? David Meneret of Mill Hill Capital and Dean Curnutt of Macro Risk Advisors discuss with Justine Underhill, in this deep conversation that touches on several important and often-ignored facets of the market environment. Filmed February 12th, 2018 in New York.

Published on
14 February, 2018
Topic
US Economy, Credit Market, Volatility
Duration
27 minutes
Asset class
Equities, Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
38

Comments

  • NV

    Nicola V.

    19 2 2018 23:16

    0       0

    This is a very important topic and timely and wish we had a longer interview format so it could get properly fleshed out. Also, audio level different on interviewer and interviewee...noticed this on more than one occasion, would be great t that get that fixed going forward. Otherwise nice job!

  • EF

    Eric F.

    17 2 2018 15:11

    0       0

    Liked it, nice to see a new - and female - interviewer.

  • RM

    Russell M.

    16 2 2018 13:47

    1       0

    This was good a good description of the nature of the market, its strengths and weaknesses. I would like to have heard some discussion about what happens to this market if FED QT, other central bank tightening and sales of Treasuries to accommodate the deficit drives the 10 year up to 3.5 - 5% and other rates go up as well. David alluded to it when he mentioned that the Fed would not be happy if the VIX hits 30. But a little more fleshed out discussion would have been nice. Seem to me this would cause major convulsions in the market as they described it and the Fed would be forced to reverse course back to loosening.

  • FV

    Fredrik V.

    16 2 2018 09:23

    0       0

    Bank counterparty risk i look at is Libor.

  • JL

    Jacob L.

    16 2 2018 06:47

    3       0

    Dean Curnutt says there is a lot of cash on the side lines (and I've heard Ray Dalio say the same thing). How do you track that exactly? And the same question for tracking counter party spreads.

  • CC

    Chad C.

    16 2 2018 05:01

    0       1

    This idea may have come from Real Vision itself, but I read, heard or watched recently where it was suggested that the S&P 500's low volatility was due in part to low-interest rates; incentivizing corporate managers to issue debt and buy back shares whenever their stock dropped. Does this have merit?

  • CS

    C S.

    16 2 2018 01:54

    0       0

    Ah, you gotta love these RV interview-afficiandos.
    Be relaxed + be very prepared + be very interested = good interview. There's is no such thing as the perfect interview, though you can aspire.

  • GM

    Gerald M.

    15 2 2018 14:34

    2       0

    Thank you for getting the audio up quickly!

  • T

    Timo .

    15 2 2018 07:58

    2       1

    I cant see "Download audio" link. I'm using Android phone.

  • DM

    David M.

    15 2 2018 07:09

    4       0

    more of this interviewer please

  • RA

    Robert A.

    15 2 2018 01:27

    35       0

    Vintage RV TV! It is hard to express just how great this piece was, but I owe it to RV to try. First, it was tight and timely, which if it is done right looks incredibly easy—trust me it ain’t easy. The female interviewer was mind blowingly excellent....clearly well prepared and knows this esoteric material well....she was able to lead these two Gentleman through what both what we wanted to know, and perhaps more importantly, what we needed to know that most of us wouldn’t know we wanted to know. She kept the pace at just the right speed.

    I know that the one Gentleman with the French accent takes a bit of work to understand, but I have watched him before and am so impressed with what he has to say that I don’t mind making the effort (I did notice that his audio volume did see a little low?).

    Here is the thing that I’m most impressed with—26 minutes! I’ve watched almost all of the RV interviews and really enjoyed some of the great one hour ones of old. I never weighed in, but was skeptical of the newer 30 minutes or less format—just did’t think RV could do justice to a worthwhile topic or a great Guest in that amount of time. This Piece has totally changed my mind! Get the right interviewer (thank you Madam), the right guests, be well prepared and edit where necessary and......it most certainly can be a fantastic product!

  • CR

    Chad R.

    15 2 2018 00:37

    7       1

    Holy Smokes.

    Erik Townsend is eating your guys' lunch.

    Every week.

    And, it's free.

  • RD

    Ryan D.

    14 2 2018 23:14

    6       0

    80 time leverage in a Mezz BB Tranche in a market with virtually no dealers, ultra thin liquidity and with rates still rising? More shoes to fall me thinks.

  • JW

    Joel W.

    14 2 2018 22:17

    3       0

    I agree with John O.

    A headline like this one seems to demand more than the 26 minute run time, and I was indeed disappointed to not dive in and swim around the deeper waters for a while.

  • IO

    Igor O.

    14 2 2018 21:12

    4       0

    RV at its best.

  • TB

    Tim B.

    14 2 2018 20:38

    16       0

    This was an outstanding interview. Justine deftly guided the interviewees with well-informed questions to probe for insights in multiple market contexts. David and Dean were equally articulate. The 2 on 1 format also worked very well, though I would argue that only an accomplished interviewer could handle that. Justine was more than up to the task.

    RV delivers again. Bravo!

  • RA

    Ricardo A.

    14 2 2018 15:56

    12       2

    Very good interviewer

  • JO

    JOHN O.

    14 2 2018 13:10

    11       0

    Good conversation. They covered a lot of ground in 26 minutes however. A deeper dive into private debt would be an interesting follow on topic. The February 9 issue of Grant's looks at parts of this market, especially that financing the PE sector. As your guests suggest, private debt might become an issue for insurers and other institutions. A liquidity crunch there could have some ugly spill over effects to the public markets.

    I agree that we won't be seeing 2017's low volatility levels any time soon. However, it makes for a better environment for the professional investor and financial advisor as many DIY investors may again focus on their day jobs and rehire the financial professional they forsook for Vanguard.

    I saw a funny comment on Twitter last week about Betterment's and Wealthfront's website crashes during the market volatility - "The inability to access your robo account and run for the hills is actually a feature and not a bug." Referring to investors' propensity to buy high and sell low ;-)

  • AG

    Alex G.

    14 2 2018 11:47

    41       2

    Real good interview ! Liked the new interviewer as well

  • PU

    Peter U.

    14 2 2018 10:49

    6       8

    the interviewer did a fine job but she lacked second order questioning (vis-a-vis more experienced market participants). Not taking anything away from her, she just needs additional experience in order to get to a "second order" discussion going.