Searching for a Peak with the Macro Insiders

Featuring Raoul Pal & Julian Brigden

What are macro signals telling investors about the second-longest bull market in US history? In this episode of “The Exchange,” Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden, of Real Vision’s Macro Insiders, discuss interest rates, market volatility, and the business cycle, in an effort to determine if we’ve finally reached an end-of-cycle top. Filmed on July 3, 2018 in Dallas.

Published on
11 July, 2018
Topic
Macro, US Economy, Monetary policy
Duration
35 minutes
Asset class
Bonds/Rates/Credit
Rating
23

Comments

  • TB

    Tim B.

    7 11 2017 18:16

    1       0

    This is the freshest perspective on gold I think I've ever heard.

    Well done, Josh, Grant and RV.

  • CS

    C S.

    6 6 2017 14:59

    1       0

    How about we use gold as a store of value only, and use currency as the MoE as it is supremely suited to do? And do away with the paper gold market. Gold is not consumed like commodities are. There's a massive stock to flow ratio. Hoarding it doesnt infringe on other peoples right to consume commodities to meet their needs for living.

  • PR

    Paolo R.

    24 5 2017 01:13

    1       0

    I've been a GoldMoney client fora couple months now and have absolutely no regret. The management team is A+++ and will continue build my gold base.. Thanks JOSH

  • CE

    Carol E.

    5 5 2017 15:03

    0       0

    The matter has been resolved.

  • CE

    Carol E.

    4 5 2017 15:15

    0       0

    Interesting presentation.
    I transferred $525,000.00 to buy gold from GOLD MONEY , but requested the funds back in order to wait for a better price. They have hesitated and even asked me to keep my money there while waiting for my. price target. They flat out refused to transfer my money back. They opened the account on our faxed documents. Sylvie Loit, head of compliance approved. Now they are looking for excuses now to transfer our funds. What kind of business is that?

  • AH

    Andreas H.

    3 5 2017 20:07

    0       3

    What is better then a store of value? The growth of value. Just read Siegel and see his first chart on gold, stocks and money. Gold holds its value, the sp500 + reinvested dividends, cost average investing and equal weighted and you will find that stocks give you a 6-10 Percent Return. So why in hell invest in gold? Where are the yachts of gold investors, where is the Warren Buffet of the gold investors?

  • DF

    Dominic F.

    3 5 2017 06:29

    1       0

    People seem to be scared to invest in gold because of the (real or perceived) control/manipulation, esp in the paper form.
    Great interview Josh and Grant. Really articulate explanation. I especially love that you are a forward thinker and trying to give people choice, moving away from old school financial institutions.

  • M

    Mark .

    2 5 2017 15:07

    2       0

    That is the best explanation of fiat money vs. commodity money. I am so glad I saw that.

  • M

    Mark .

    2 5 2017 14:53

    0       0

    The thing that is so clear to me now is that fiat money can never, ever have forced artificial low interest rates without tons of bad things happening. We are controlled by idiots or in effect, evil people, ultimately.

  • gg

    gurdeep g.

    1 5 2017 19:23

    4       0

    This interviews a winner. Put his points across passionately and in depth. Spot on

  • KK

    Kevin K.

    1 5 2017 09:45

    1       0

    The gold bridge that was referred to is very interesting and something to look into. International transfer of money through the use of gold avoiding currency exchange and bank transfer fees.

  • LN

    Lucy N.

    30 4 2017 23:21

    0       0

    excellent

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    30 4 2017 00:18

    5       0

    Thanks for this great interview. I really appreciated the engineer's perspective. Looking forward to read the reports! One thing that I would point out though is that in my opinion the invisible hand of central bankers may be far greater than Josh thinks. About that conversation with the central banker "I was just particularly confrontational that day. And I just told them right back, you know what? You That's great. There's a market that has a view right back. It's called price. And so whatever your views are, there's a price. That's what I'm trying to understand.” I would argue that this market Josh refers to does not really exist at the moment. At least the price of paper gold is still highly in the hands of banks (manipulation proved) and central banks (conspiracy theory? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-28/fleecebook-meet-benoit-gilson-head-foreign-exchange-gold-bis ), and they still seem to be able to influence that price quite efficiently with regular naked shorts in the futures market and a good amount of leverage on unallocated gold accounts (or more creative repos? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-04/inside-look-shocking-role-gold-new-normal). Of course this makes owning gold not less appealing, especially not if one were to bet that central banks were to lose control sooner than later. However, in my opinion this price manipulation significantly dampens the spread in popularity of owning gold to larger masses (yet?). And here the key is of course physical gold as paper gold can maybe still be pushed around for a long time.

  • JC

    Josh C.

    29 4 2017 21:38

    12       0

    Just to be clear, I didn't start my company because I love gold, but because I love the invisible hand of decentralization and the values of an open society. I reconciled that gold works as a great measurement tool, it's most important attribute. My money has gone more than100x to 1 into investing in solutions to our society's problems, not gold. Anyone enjoying the fruits of this wonderful Central Bank bubble in everything should be doing the same, with urgency.

  • RR

    Raj R.

    29 4 2017 20:36

    2       4

    Sometimes it feels like RVTV is a place for all doom and gloom supporters to congregate and validate their reasons to own precious metals. We need to see some arguments from the other side. Full discl

  • TL

    T L.

    29 4 2017 14:50

    3       0

    Hi Josh, what percentage of Goldmoney balances is covered by actual gold in the vaults?

  • JM

    John M.

    29 4 2017 04:39

    8       0

    I found the book "The Golden Constant" by Roy Jastram a very interesting study of gold's purchasing power. The author compares an index of the price of gold to an index of wholesale commodity prices over a period of 400 years (1580-1976). The author found that the purchasing power of gold, although deviating substantially for significant periods of time, nevertheless moved around a constant level in the long run.

  • PN

    Paul N.

    29 4 2017 03:50

    0       0

    If they ensure the supply is fixed and they relinquish control of interest rates and capital flows then that it would seriously harm bitcoin. But I can't see that happening at all. Most likely bityuan will work the same as regular yuan which is already mostly digital.

  • EH

    Eric H.

    29 4 2017 01:40

    4       0

    awesome interview. wrote about goldmoney competing with GLD on www.economicpizza.com. It really is better from an investment standpoint as well as the savings standpoint. great stuff realvision!

  • RN

    Ryan N.

    28 4 2017 23:20

    3       13

    Gold is only a store of value if whatever the prevailing society is at the time collectively decides to assign value to it. It may be that throughout history it has been a store of value for this reason. But society could have chosen to consider any number of other things a store of value. Today's collective society has decided to assign a store of value to paper currency. So please have your interviewee explain the difference between gold and paper currency in this context? This is what I don't get about gold.

  • DS

    David S.

    28 4 2017 18:18

    4       0

    It is reasonable to believe that the Chinese government will issue Bityuan and outlaw the use of Bitcoin in China. This possibility became evident when the Hawaii legislature forced all Hawaii-addressed Coinbase accounts to be closed within 30 days. If Hawaii could do this so easily, so can other governments. DLS

  • dd

    darrell d.

    28 4 2017 18:08

    5       0

    Again, RV is over the top. Thanks for bringing quality interviews to all.

  • TL

    T L.

    28 4 2017 17:19

    2       9

    interesting arguments. I wonder if some of your guests pay to appear on RVTV?

  • WS

    William S.

    28 4 2017 17:05

    29       0

    I first met and spoke with Josh about two years ago in Vancouver. His thesis was solid then, but exceedingly more refined now. Very impressive. In the middle of the interview, inspired by Josh's articulation of the point, I paused for a few minutes and texted to my wife: "Gold is the only element in the periodic table that defies entropy. At an atomic level, it refuses to be acted upon by any other element or compound thereof. Think about that in terms of why gold has been, throughout history, the only enduring form of money. And then contrast it with money based on DEBT." Shortly thereafter, she replied: "Everyone on the planet understood this principle until the banksters realized they could become rich beyond their wildest dreams by brainwashing the masses." Know this, Josh: Your theoretical work in this subject area is highly valuable at this juncture in time. I strongly suspect that your sense of urgency in the matter is, somehow, a reflection of a "disturbance in the zeitgeist" wherein people like my wife and me are actually having these kinds of discussions. These ideas are going to shape our future as we reach the inevitable (and highly disruptive) end of this epoch of debt-based monetary madness. I have read and will continue to read the excellent treatises you and Roy are producing in this realm of economic thought.

  • EF

    E F.

    28 4 2017 17:00

    5       0

    I've found his idea about the current system benefiting those who can take on debt to enlighten more people than anything else, quickly leading to should I get a larger mortgage / should I fix its interest rate while I can, etc. Even people with zero interest in finance start to question the value of cash and their bank deposits that way in my experience.

  • CD

    Cesar D.

    28 4 2017 16:43

    5       0

    One of my fav interviews so far!

  • PB

    Paul B.

    28 4 2017 15:27

    6       0

    Very well articulated Josh. As for what might "allow" a transformation from fiat to a fixed exchange system...Lee Quaintance and I speculated a while back that it would have to be politically expedient, which reduces to the "right people" (those funding politicians and policy) would have to own it first. In other words, I doubt the Fed or another major central bank would surprise the gold market with an announcement that it will once again be a monetary anchor. I would think the gold price in fiat terms would begin appreciating on some random Tuesday for no apparent reason prior to a formal transformation, which would then provide the windfall. But that's terribly conspiratorial...

  • rr

    rlw r.

    28 4 2017 15:22

    9       0

    A ton of nuggets to mine from this interview. (I know...not even punny:). Actually, it may well be one of RV's many best in '17. Awesome thought provoking content, given the absurb saving/investing environment we face. Josh keep skating to where the puck is going, eh

  • TJ

    Terry J.

    28 4 2017 13:01

    20       0

    An excellent interview and Josh has so many brilliant observations on gold and its polarisation in economics and the markets. It was obvious Josh's views resonated with Grant's own beliefs. Having recently finished reading Ron Paul's excellent book "End the Fed", watching this made me think we are coming to the final play in the monetary wars of the last half century, where much like Star Wars we have the guys on the side of light, i.e. classical austrian econmoics advocating a return to gold as money with heroes like Dr Paul , Josh, Grant, etc as our jeddis, while the dark side, i.e the neo Keynesians who are convinced surreal and perpetual debt can continue to protect the elite and suppress the masses, with the likes of Ben Bernanke as the Darth Vader anti heroes. Thankfully as in the movies, there can only be one outcome, albeit the plot is taking longer than most of us expected to play out!

  • JV

    Jonas V.

    28 4 2017 12:16

    1       6

    bitcoin = digital gold