The Anatomy of Bubbles

Featuring Grant Williams, Dan Oliver, Simon Mikhailovich

Grant Williams, Simon Mikhailovich and Dan Oliver embark on a three part Exchange that dissects the recurring theme of capital misallocation, the financialization of economies and their social and political consequences. In this first part, they look at the anatomy of bubbles and highlight historical parallels going back thousands of years. The implications are all too familiar and suggest a dramatic outcome for the level of gold. Filmed on May 8, 2018 in New York.

Published on
6 August, 2018
Topic
Gold, Financial System, History
Duration
33 minutes
Rating
35

Comments

  • RW

    Raymond W.

    27 8 2018 22:42

    1       1

    Three gold guys talking their book. Not that what they say will not happen but it could take much longer than they expect.

  • CA

    Craig A.

    18 8 2018 06:31

    1       0

    Very good discussion - well presented and highly informative. Really like the details about the Mississippi bubble aswell

  • LS

    Leo S.

    15 8 2018 08:24

    0       0

    Who prepared the spread?

  • OL

    Otto L.

    14 8 2018 22:51

    0       0

    Great episode, thanks. History definitely repeats. How about a repeat with Neil Howe?

  • my

    markettaker y.

    14 8 2018 05:03

    4       0

    Gentlemen: Simon, Dan, Grant, Milton, and Real Vision: This is a hugely important discussion, and these two (and third no doubt) Exchanges are among the most crystallized expressions of it....

    But can RV please step up its game and bring out the big gun thinkers who completely reject the entire hard money thesis? Drill into the foundations of why so many other very smart people in the financial markets reject it, and have a structured debate where the two sides explain *the principles that underpin their perspective* and *the conditions under which they would consider their monetary theory vindicated.* It shouldn't necessarily be about which view is right, because if it were possible to answer to the satisfaction of all there would be no raging dispute. But just focus on figuring out what underpins the different outlooks, and what each would consider the conditions that must be satisfied for their view to be shown true or false.

  • Sv

    Sid v.

    13 8 2018 21:15

    2       0

    great discussion!

  • HH

    HODL H.

    12 8 2018 23:46

    0       0

    great video! Thats a ton for fruit and meat though lol

  • JC

    James C.

    12 8 2018 21:42

    0       4

    Gold is a poor hedge in itself - far better off to use some kind of options strategy that has embedded leverage.

    Just look at 2008 - Gold only started performing well off the bottom, when all other assets were recovering as well.

  • B

    Bojo .

    12 8 2018 10:52

    1       0

    Excellent discussion, gents, thank you.

  • PG

    Paco G.

    11 8 2018 19:42

    2       0

    Fascinating discussion of financial history. Bravo.... How does that go ? ......Those who Ignore history are doomed to repeat.....

  • WM

    Will M.

    11 8 2018 18:56

    7       0

    What astounds me about the gold naysayers is they just don't pay attention to history. Even today the recent examples of Argentina, Venezuela and Turkey (to mention the bigger ones) demonstrate categorically that owning gold would have saved family wealth period. For those that assume the USA will remain the world's reserve currency and sole superpower indefinitely read some history on the UK, France, Netherlands, Spain etc. Imperial overstretch is and will eventually lay the USA low....unfortunately.

  • HJ

    Harry J.

    10 8 2018 23:03

    1       0

    Tell me how much longer I have to hold this Gold till it’s worth
    $10,000 per oz.
    It’s getting heavy.
    Or I’m getting weak.

  • jm

    james m.

    10 8 2018 21:03

    9       0

    Can you get Dan Oliver on for a full presentation pls - thx

  • DP

    David P.

    10 8 2018 05:23

    0       0

    Off to get a cheese and meat platter thanks to you guys. Great interview.

  • SB

    Stephen B.

    10 8 2018 01:40

    2       0

    Dan has one of the best grasps of history of anyone I know, so surprised that he didn't know that the pyramids (or at least Giza) were (was) in fact built as power plants (by a pre-flood civilization) :) ?

  • SS

    Sam S.

    9 8 2018 20:16

    0       0

    I'm hungry.

  • RM

    Ross M.

    9 8 2018 06:14

    0       0

    Grant you need to get an interview with Tom Coughlin of Kinesis Money this looks like a solid platform bringing Gold to the mainstream using 1:1 gold and silver allocated and levering crypto technology along with tradition vaulting. Appreciate RV and your efforts to bring sanity to this crazy FIAT world.

  • DF

    Dominic F.

    8 8 2018 23:28

    4       1

    This was a fantastic discussion about something that the man/woman on the street really doesn't understand.
    Great format with 3 knowledgable and respectful people taking turns to have their say and listen to the others. It sounds simple, but it is a refreshing change from that awful shouty, interrupting Financial News Media where nothing is discussed properly because the shouters don't understand what they themselves are saying, hahaha.
    This is what I regard as a great teaching tool for people interested in finding out what is going on in the financial world because, as I heard said once and I agree - 'All news is economic news'.

  • ss

    sid s.

    8 8 2018 22:53

    5       1

    too short. could've listened for an hour...or two.

  • DC

    Darren C.

    8 8 2018 14:56

    2       0

    That is a lot of snacks for 3 people.

  • vt

    vadim t.

    8 8 2018 11:53

    0       3

    the same old nonsense about gold as an insurance for years... Keep dreaming guys, just do not let the reality distract you in any way.

  • MB

    Markus B.

    8 8 2018 11:43

    2       0

    Question to the panel or to Simon in particular; reference was made in the discussion to gold on the Fed's balances sheet vs the Fed's liabilities. If my memory serves me correct the value of 1 oz of gold on the balance sheet was / is valued at around 35 $. What price of gold is taken into account when the panel refers to a backing of 8 % of the Fed's liabilities - the initial book value or current spot?

  • TT

    Travis T.

    7 8 2018 20:10

    6       2

    Great talk and good mash up having those two on. I would like to get a Geo political discussion like this with Peter Zeihan and someone else.

  • DS

    David S.

    7 8 2018 18:05

    5       0

    The value of gold shows up in currency crises. Recent charts of gold prices in Argentine Peso or the Turkish Lira would be instructive. DLS

  • GS

    Gordon S.

    7 8 2018 14:42

    1       0

    Great brief discussion! As mentioned below, I would really love to see some debates with opposing views in this new format!

    Meanwhile I can highly recommend Ray Dailo's Paper "How the Economic Machine Works –
    Leveragings and Deleveragings": https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09/Dalio.pdf where he goes through various historical deleveraging cycles. (Maybe we could get him hear too?)

  • DT

    Dennie T.

    7 8 2018 14:36

    2       0

    Very interesting discussion, but why is no one touching those delicious looking cold cuts?

  • HA

    Hugh A.

    7 8 2018 14:14

    0       0

    I am not familiar with Mr. Oliver's work. Has he written any books on the history of banking?

  • RK

    Richard K.

    7 8 2018 11:50

    0       0

    Great discussion. More please. Longer and more. All three guys are knowledgeable, articulate and edifying. Maybe that’s why I enjoy listening so much.

  • DI

    Dabangg I.

    7 8 2018 06:00

    6       10

    rehashing the same ideas. i know u guys will eventually be right, but you have been saying similar ideas for 2 years. we are up 30% since then, and even if market crashes 40% tomorrow, we will still be even!!

  • MD

    M D.

    7 8 2018 05:06

    5       2

    These guys agree too much. I think someone who could offer the counter arguments would have helped a lot.

  • GO

    Gary O.

    7 8 2018 05:04

    2       0

    Nice conversation. Carry on!

  • T~

    Tshort63 ~.

    7 8 2018 04:27

    2       0

    Great conversation, thanks, gentlemen. Loved the comments around gold as a sovereign self-correction mechanism against those that overextend their empires or their military.

  • KE

    Kathryn E.

    7 8 2018 02:58

    4       0

    Great discussion! Please continue with this approach

  • JC

    Justin C.

    7 8 2018 02:01

    9       1

    Dan Oliver needs to return to Twitter! What a brilliant mind with a rare and deep grasp of financial history!

  • jh

    janet h.

    7 8 2018 01:00

    2       0

    this is a great interview with lots of history lessons. Dan Oliver is amazing....OK, so are Simon and Grant!

  • jh

    janet h.

    7 8 2018 00:45

    0       0

    Love all the cookbooks in the background!! Who is the cook

  • DW

    Dave W.

    6 8 2018 23:02

    15       0

    I hardly ever write comments as I prefer to just watch and absorb. This one has motivated me. The exchange format is fantastic and the last few topics/guests have been the stuff that makes Real Vision the ultimate value investment. Please bring more like this.

  • rr

    rlw r.

    6 8 2018 18:03

    11       0

    Excellent chat guys. Looking forward to many more.

  • SS

    Steven S.

    6 8 2018 17:35

    2       1

    This is quite eye opening - quite /👁\ opening - https://youtu.be/zgeUrvKOmWg

    If true -this certainly explains why our 'cut-through-the-BS' purveyors of financial TRUTH hero's -->Grant & Raul are so very quiet on this specific topic......

    A great awakening is needed.

  • am

    amit m.

    6 8 2018 13:34

    12       24

    Has anyone made money of any of these guests in last 5 years besides being short? Whose paying for a 10 year outlook. No humility here even trying to understand where their process went wrong. In fact how can u even say they have an edge when their process isn’t repeatable and dynamic to change. Sounds like zerohedge but worse attribution.

  • HB

    Heini B.

    6 8 2018 13:28

    8       2

    So great to see these three in a room together, Dan Oliver needs to finish his book, come'on Dan I am sure RealVisionistas will pre-order sufficient quantities to motivate a publisher ,-)

  • PU

    Peter U.

    6 8 2018 13:25

    4       1

    Pure gold!

  • V!

    Volatimothy !.

    6 8 2018 12:51

    5       0

    In my opinion you can’t see the bubble when you are inside it. You have to look from the outside or the other side.

    “Sometimes people don’t want to hear the truth because they don’t want their illusions destroyed.” Friedrich Nietzsche

  • DS

    David S.

    6 8 2018 12:21

    0       1

    Congress and the administration are already deregulating the banks. The Fed Chairman is saying we do not necessarily have to have a recession. The bubble cycle is just as real as the business cycle. We are not going to change that. Even returning to the gold standard will not work, as the financial markets are strong enough to destroy any pegged rate. Maybe the team can look at what assets in additions to gold worked during the collapse of past bubbles and in the recoveries - with and without hyper-inflation. DLS

  • KS

    Karen S.

    6 8 2018 12:10

    9       0

    Dan Oliver needs to start a podcast.

  • EL

    Elizabeth L.

    6 8 2018 12:04

    1       1

    Brilliant!

  • RM

    Russell M.

    6 8 2018 11:57

    11       0

    Put whoever selected the outtake music in charge of all realvision music selection.

  • lD

    lance D.

    6 8 2018 11:38

    1       0

    Yeah real good discussion also looking forwards to the next part

  • KJ

    Kulbir J.

    6 8 2018 11:34

    36       0

    This was great. But do you know what would be better? If we had people with differing views on The Exchange, rather than 3 people who agree on the benefits of holding Gold etc.

    Would love to see some real debate!

  • NG

    Nick G.

    6 8 2018 11:29

    9       0

    Wonderful discussion. Much enjoyed Tacitus and Tiberius discussions which have prompted me to Google those events and learn something new.
    One question though: you have wonderful spreads on the table in all these videos, yet no one eats. Ever. Are you all on a diet or something?

  • jS

    jurgen S.

    6 8 2018 09:56

    4       0

    Really good discussion about where we are and how it compares to history.
    Hard to argue with any of it.
    Well done guys, look forward to the next discussion.