A Chemical Look at the Global Economy

Published on
3 December, 2018
Topic
Financial System, Recession, US Economy
Duration
28 minutes

A Chemical Look at the Global Economy

Featuring Paul Hodges

Has the global economy already entered recession? Paul Hodges, chairman of International eChem, unpacks the relationship between economic growth and chemical production – which, in Hodges’s analysis, suggests a recession may have already begun. Filmed on November 19, 2018 in London.

Published on
3 December, 2018
Topic
Financial System, Recession, US Economy
Duration
28 minutes
Rating
20
Sharing

Comments

  • FB

    Frank B.

    6 12 2018 04:52

    1       0

    Would be really great to read Paul’s pH Report on Think Tank!

  • jd

    john d.

    6 12 2018 01:57

    0       0

    I like that he is using base fundamental supply and demand

  • SS

    Sean S.

    5 12 2018 13:22

    1       0

    Straight talk

    Good stuff

  • SW

    Szymon W.

    5 12 2018 05:23

    1       0

    Excellent interview! Thank you

  • RK

    Robert K.

    5 12 2018 00:38

    1       1

    A voice of reason among all the cheerleading! Very helpful.

  • RD

    Rahul D.

    5 12 2018 00:27

    4       0

    Absolutely awesome. Loved the very objective assessment of macro trends and where we are potentially headed. Keep up the great content, RV!

  • SS

    Sam S.

    4 12 2018 20:43

    0       0

    Excellent!

  • SM

    Sarit M.

    4 12 2018 16:53

    1       0

    Great insights, Paul. Thanks for sharing. Loved your common sense approach coupled with appreciation of technicals in current scenario. Hope to see you on RV more often.

  • RM

    Ross M.

    4 12 2018 08:58

    1       0

    It's wonderful to hear commonsense, brilliance simplified.

  • JF

    Joseph F.

    4 12 2018 06:02

    0       0

    Excellent.

  • EF

    Eric F.

    4 12 2018 02:40

    3       0

    Excellent. 9 downvotes as of now, incomprehensible.

  • PB

    Pieter B.

    4 12 2018 02:40

    1       0

    Thanks a lot for the excellent presentation!

  • ml

    michael l.

    4 12 2018 02:14

    1       1

    4% 10YY and economic downturn .... it's just not happening. I'll bet we see a sub 2% 10YY if a downturn arrives.

  • ml

    michael l.

    4 12 2018 02:12

    16       1

    Would have preferred to hear a lot more about how the chemical sector data is signaling a global slowdown....references to different data points and how they pointed to the 2007-8 downturn and what they are saying now. As it is, I heard how chemical demand is an early warning sign for auto and housing markets, and that is proving out again, but that was the extent of it. Then, it was off to a lot of topics of a more global macro nature.

  • PG

    Philippe G.

    4 12 2018 01:12

    4       1

    Interesting approach, but would have liked a bit more details on the underlying mechanics of the chemicals industry...The analysis provided by the American Chemistry Council, what exactly in terms of indicators/metrics?

    Wasn't expecting the secret sauce recipe of course, but this interview was a bit more global macro, rather then chemicals...

  • JW

    Jason W.

    3 12 2018 22:25

    6       0

    I’m really impressed with this interview RealVision. I’ve never heard an approach like this one. Really stimulating product you offer. A happy subscriber 👍🏻

  • DS

    David S.

    3 12 2018 18:57

    0       0

    Clamping down on Chinese shadow banking and Bitcoin is important outside of China. Inside China the PBOC is adding liquidity. The money that did not get out must be invested or held in China. No one knows where the balance is or will be, but this is Chinese government policy for the foreseeable future. DLS

  • GT

    Graham T.

    3 12 2018 17:29

    13       2

    Hang on , weren't we talking about the chemical market. where was the Y-on-Y RoC data on supplies or demand for millions of tons of this chemical or that chemical. where is the chat about gases, or calcium or sodium or magnesium. he seems to go off "message" I can hear all about this from the squid. where are we in the Chemical cycle? as soon as he mentioned today's classic bogeyman "shadow banking" i knew we weren't taking about the chemical cycle. shame , another one who predicted the gfc. how many is that now?

  • OT

    Omar T.

    3 12 2018 16:43

    2       0

    Also, Paul Hodges opinion on bonds is directly contradictory to Raoul's opinion as I understand, so it would be interesting for Raoul to provide his thoughts in response.

  • OT

    Omar T.

    3 12 2018 16:35

    8       0

    One thing about the baby boomers, in past recessions, they have always been convinced to stick with or get back into the markets because they were told over time things will recover. I think things will be different next time we have a bad downturn and the baby boomers are in retirement or near retirement because they will say "I cannot afford to wait for the markets to recover". So there is a risk at a certain point of creating a very bad feedback loop.

  • ap

    alexandre p.

    3 12 2018 12:51

    13       0

    fantastic. on top of your game Paul

  • Nv

    Nick v.

    3 12 2018 11:54

    8       0

    I learnt something new today. Great interview.
    Thank you

  • AR

    Abishek R.

    3 12 2018 11:13

    9       0

    Brilliant thesis.

  • CD

    Chris D.

    3 12 2018 10:07

    25       0

    Elegant discussion, really enjoyed this one. Excellent!